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shimizu
08 Nov 09 23:02
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Date Joined: 21 Feb 09
| Topic/replies: 21 | Blogger: shimizu's blog
Cuevas to win....?
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Report Jason Bourne November 8, 2009 11:12 PM GMT
Closer than the odds suggest for sure.
Report Kalusi November 9, 2009 12:10 AM GMT
Cuevas best pick tomorrow imo.
Report McChicken_Sandwich November 9, 2009 12:16 AM GMT
Got 3.33 on Cuevas.

Happy with that..lol
Report zamorano November 9, 2009 8:16 AM GMT
Ivo Karlovic CRO
28-Feb-1979
Singles ranking 38

All you know how Karlovic plays... Big server, and nothing else. From last year he has improve some of the shots (especiallly the backhand lifted) because a few years ago karlovic was unable to keep the ball in play more than 3 shots. But he still is a player "easy" to beat from the baseline if you have the patience and you dont get nervious once the big man comes to the net.

I remember the Karlovic (in 2007) who was unbreakable. He had a good year (in terms of results) but then.. his serve has been up and down.

This year has been pretty poor to Karlovic. His best result has been A SEMIFINAL ON A CLAY TOURNAMENT!!!(and the 1/4 at Wimbledon) And at this part of the season.. his mind looks really facked... Take a look of his latest results..

WON DAVIS CUP RUBBER CRO CLAY vs Blake

WON SECOND ROUND USA HARD vs Schuettler
WON THIRD ROUND USA HARD vs Dewarman
LOST 1/4 USA HARD vs Roddick

LOST FIRST ROUND CAN HARD vs Haas

WIN FIRST ROUND USA HARD vs Monfils
LOST SECOND ROUND USA HARD vs Mathieu

LOST FIRST ROUND US OPEN HARD vs Navarro

LOST DAVIS CUP RUBBER CRO CLAY vs Stepanek

LOST FIRST ROUND CHN HARD vs Kohlschreiber

LOST FIRST ROUND CHN HARD vs Blake

LOST FIRST ROUND SUI INDOOR HARD vs Serra

He is 4-8 in the last 12 matches
He has lost the last 6 matches
He is 4-13 in the last 17 tie breaks played
He has lost the last 3 tie breaks

So Karlovic is clearly out of form and mentally done for the year. But this is Master 1000... Ok.. he lost last year to Kiefer here in 2 sets... so basically the season is over for him...
Looks like Karlo planning ends in the US OPEN.. last year was almost the same as 2009 (only exception of the Madrid MASTERS)...

His serve is pretty vulnerable, he cant break and the most important thing...Karlovic has just won 2 matches when he has lost the first serve this year...

You cant expect a Karlovic winning the first set with break.. you must expect a close set with a tie break or 7-5 to anybody. The only problem is the market movement... As people will expect Karlo to serve for his life and keeps the odds on him low enought to make difficult the trade on Cuevas... And just like Serra match.. if Cuevas wins the first set, people will still put Karlovic low enought to difficult the trade on Cuevas...

So what you have here? imo two clear options:

- lay Karlovic from the start: if Karlovic wins the set he will be 1.2 to win the match surely, so the 1.7 lay to 1.2 is not a big lost.. and remember this match will have at least 1 tie break and if someone of this two has to be break up, will be cuevas...

- back Cuevas once he is set up: karlovic comeback is unlikely to happen...

What if i want to back Karlovic because i think he is going to win??????

Do it.. 1.7 is not bad enought (like serra, when he was 1.35 to win) but i will wait to see who serves first.. Karlovic serving first you will have him 1.5 at some point if he holds.. Cuevas serving first you will have 1.9 and evens on Cuevas at some point...

Why you are not talking about Cuevas?????

Because vs Karlovic... Your chances to win are all over Karlovic (unless you are a top player, wich cuevas isnt). Its all on Karlovic serve.. so cuevas... has to be patience..

Good luck and yes, im laying Karlovic from start.
Report silveree November 9, 2009 8:17 AM GMT
why is cuevas a good pick?. Cannot see why, because he beat a moody ferrero? Question: when was the last time cuevas beat a top 50?
Report giudele November 9, 2009 8:24 AM GMT
odds drift from 3.3 to 2.46
Report STAN83 November 9, 2009 8:32 AM GMT
CUEVAS IS TYPICAL CLAY COURT PLAYER THIS QUESTION???

Is Cuevas is so enough patent to play vs Doctor Ivo

Cuevas all he's rank producted in clay court season
He never play on Masters Hardcourt 1000
He play on us open 2 times 1 success beat Guccione...

This very difficult game to say what will be.. what Karlovic have to product in this game
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 8:32 AM GMT
Graph says odds never higher than 2.62 (1$ matched there :D)
Report zamorano November 9, 2009 8:39 AM GMT
McChicken_Sandwich 09 Nov 02:16
Got 3.33 on Cuevas.

Happy with that..lol


happy with what?? 3.33 on cuevas to win Paris Masters 1000? because he has not reached the 3.3 in this match...
Report JoZo November 9, 2009 8:52 AM GMT
morning guys....
backing Ivo today, great odds
Report LOCHINVAR November 9, 2009 8:54 AM GMT
Karlo a big bet for me today. Zamarano's statement re Karlo lay "so the 1.7 lay to 1.2 is not a big lost" :o convinced me to BACK Karlo :^0
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 8:54 AM GMT
Pablo Cuevas has won 7 in a row when Opponent is a Big Server.


Ivo Karlovic has lost 6 in a row overall.


Ivo Karlovic has lost 4 in a row in France.


Ivo Karlovic has lost 5 of last 6 at Paris TMS.


Ivo Karlovic has lost 4 of last 5 at Tennis Masters Series level.


Ivo Karlovic has won 6 in a row when priced as Favourite ($1.50 to $1.999).
Report shimizu November 9, 2009 9:00 AM GMT
Any scoreboard or livestream?
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 9:02 AM GMT
Cuevas is a gravel eater but a good fighter.. Karlo has been completely off last few monts getting kicked out US Open by claycourter and non top 100 Navarro in straight sets amongst other sad results.. Tough to call pre match..
Report miguel jones November 9, 2009 9:02 AM GMT
http://www.protennislive.com/frameset.asp?year=2009&wkno=45&lang=en&tabno=1&...
Report zamorano November 9, 2009 9:02 AM GMT
lochinvar.. thats the difference between laying karlovic according to the info or backing karlovic like a mug..

good luck anyway
Report spireite85. November 9, 2009 9:04 AM GMT
b 36 5 have a good in play score board if you want to watch it...
Report I am the game November 9, 2009 9:04 AM GMT
You will love me now............................................................................
Report I am the game November 9, 2009 9:05 AM GMT
Nice job eh?!
Report zamorano November 9, 2009 9:09 AM GMT
thanks.. if you were i woman probably now i will be kissing your mouth
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 9:11 AM GMT
Is that stream working for anybody?
Report Kingswood November 9, 2009 9:13 AM GMT
On sky sports 2
Report I am the game November 9, 2009 9:13 AM GMT
Try this dude!

http://www.fromsport.com/c-4.html
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 9:14 AM GMT
Got it now thx
Report spireite85. November 9, 2009 9:14 AM GMT
i'm watching sky sports 2 via xbox 360 - don't think i have the "red button" :(
Report Basketball Funds November 9, 2009 9:16 AM GMT
Ty I am the game
Report Simon - Bracciali November 9, 2009 9:23 AM GMT
Cuevas choking against a mug like karlovic
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 9:36 AM GMT
I never understood how decent players can get broken by Karlo.. anyway Pablo seems to have found his rythm
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 9:40 AM GMT
Must have to do something with loss of focus through fustration..
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 9:44 AM GMT
2 more bp's/setp's save by Cuevas
Report zamorano November 9, 2009 9:52 AM GMT
He is 4-13 in the last 17 tie breaks played
He has lost the last 3 tie breaks


and Karlovic still 1.5

just like serra match.. people is crazy
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 9:53 AM GMT
Well he had 10 returnpoints, Cuebas only 4..
Report zamorano November 9, 2009 9:54 AM GMT
1-0** karlo
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 9:54 AM GMT
Was that an ace on 2.? :)
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 9:56 AM GMT
Cuevas can't touch his 2. 8 out of 9 for Karlo
Report jumpstart November 9, 2009 9:57 AM GMT
but hes playing cuevas
Report zamorano November 9, 2009 9:57 AM GMT
4-2? my sb stopped but odds seems to be mini karlo
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 9:59 AM GMT
6-3
Report LOCHINVAR November 9, 2009 10:00 AM GMT
zamorano and his stats :^0 ;)
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 10:00 AM GMT
set karlo
Report LOCHINVAR November 9, 2009 10:00 AM GMT
dont mess with King Karlo the Great :d
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 10:01 AM GMT
12 returns vs 4..
Report gongi November 9, 2009 10:01 AM GMT
Karlo is TB Master!!!
Report zamorano November 9, 2009 10:01 AM GMT
its ok lochinvar..

today looks like karlo serve is working

my fault
Report One Barry Robson November 9, 2009 10:02 AM GMT
LOCHINVAR 09 Nov 11:00


zamorano and his stats


--------------------------------------

easy to post when it doesn't look like working - personally I thought it was a very detailed analysis
Report LOCHINVAR November 9, 2009 10:03 AM GMT
zamorano :)
Report Bigblondeleftie November 9, 2009 10:03 AM GMT
Not only was Karlovic 4-13 in last tiebreaks, but Cuevas was 10-0 in his last...
Report LOCHINVAR November 9, 2009 10:04 AM GMT
One Barry Robson, my point being that it's not always about stats. sometimes u have to go with your hunch.
Report zamorano November 9, 2009 10:05 AM GMT
lochinvar im not a stats fan

i just put the stats to mean Karlovic serve wasnt so decisive as always...
Report LOCHINVAR November 9, 2009 10:05 AM GMT
and people mock this 'he is due' factor but im a big fan
Report jumpstart November 9, 2009 10:05 AM GMT
karlo a man on a mission
Report zamorano November 9, 2009 10:06 AM GMT
looks like gsm

well done karlo backers..
Report LOCHINVAR November 9, 2009 10:06 AM GMT
zam im not criticising you - i personally think you are one of the better posters here because at least put up stats etc. But sometimes i like to pull your leg :)
Report jumpstart November 9, 2009 10:06 AM GMT
locht hes plays a clay courter if he didnt beay cuevas that would be sad
Report zamorano November 9, 2009 10:07 AM GMT
its ok, no problem..

i will lay karlovic vs soderling next round ;)
Report zamorano November 9, 2009 10:08 AM GMT
jumpstart 09 Nov 12:06
locht hes plays a clay courter if he didnt beay cuevas that would be sad


he lost vs navarro on us open.. how sad was that?
Report Bigblondeleftie November 9, 2009 10:08 AM GMT
Karlo looks more composed than for a while - he could do some damage against Söderlingd. Probably 67 46
Report jumpstart November 9, 2009 10:10 AM GMT
yeah i think hes had lots of confidence problems this year ,maybe hell have that end of year revival
Report blokhin November 9, 2009 10:15 AM GMT
not watching this but is a small lay of Karlo worth it now? one break and it could go to another TB.
Report apofispre November 9, 2009 10:15 AM GMT
why there are no livestreams this week at betfair ?

thought they had every Masters tournament as livestream
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 10:16 AM GMT
@blokhin so far Cuevas has 10% returnpoints.. you do the math..
can';t see it happen, but stranger things have come true :)
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 10:19 AM GMT
Returns 18 vs 5
Bp's 1 ot of 5 vs 0 out of 0
Report If Not Why Not November 9, 2009 10:19 AM GMT
1.02 karlo ......... have to lay that
Report Bouncebackz November 9, 2009 10:19 AM GMT
karlo serving easy but karlo hasnt won a match for over a month so may miss a few 1sts
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 10:20 AM GMT
Doesn't matter his 2. is just as good atm..
Report Bouncebackz November 9, 2009 10:20 AM GMT
can cuevas gub 2 1.02 in a week
Report tennis plums done November 9, 2009 10:21 AM GMT
haha karlo is covered in it anyway, cant miss
Report bohemond November 9, 2009 10:23 AM GMT
this 2nd court is lightning fast
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 10:24 AM GMT
laid 1,01 against better judgement :)
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 10:26 AM GMT
Even outplaying Cuevas on Cuevas' serve atm :D
Report tallinn November 9, 2009 10:28 AM GMT
break him cuevas! :^0
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 10:28 AM GMT
That would be one hell of a choke.. :D
Report miami heat November 9, 2009 10:30 AM GMT
ace
ace
Report Dummy Runner November 9, 2009 10:30 AM GMT
ace
Report WPlay November 9, 2009 10:30 AM GMT
ace ace ace :D
Report miami heat November 9, 2009 10:30 AM GMT
lol 3 aces to GSM
Report Dummy Runner November 9, 2009 10:30 AM GMT
and an ace to finish off the match
Report One Barry Robson November 9, 2009 10:31 AM GMT
LOCHINVAR 09 Nov 11:04


One Barry Robson, my point being that it's not always about stats. sometimes u have to go with your hunch.

---------------------------------

fair enough
Report miami heat November 9, 2009 10:31 AM GMT
4 ACES TO WIN A GAME
Report Can you imagine? November 9, 2009 10:31 AM GMT
destroyed!
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