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Stoozbet's Trading Blog

Redemption Trading

14 Jun 13 08:20
In the 16.20 at Sandown I’m looking for redemption after last time out when I put Cayuga up for a trade on Derby day at Epsom and he didn’t act at all when stepping up in grade leading to losses all round. However, that said you can always forgive a horse 1 bad run and he wouldn’t be the 1st horse not to handle such an idiosyncratic track as Epsom. He’s back down in grade today and I’m hoping to see that the reasons for the investment in the horse that day can generate a return.

Cayuga has a smooth traveling style enabling him to make up ground on the bridle & we can expect him to be covered up through the early part of the race before coming with his run around 2f from home. At this point his price should shorten up to at the least give us a trade.

Cayuga can be backed now for 2 points at 9.0 at the books (lads). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.6, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.6 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 15.25 at Newbury Lady Nouf is going to be hugely popular given last time out she finished 2nd to the winner of the Oaks, Talent. However, for the Oaks, Talent went off at a BSP of 25/1 which tells you all you need to know about what the market thought about Talent’s performance winning the listed race as her preparation. To add weight to this argument Richard Hughes rode the filly in a piece of work just a week or so before the big race & she reportedly worked terribly. So it appears that Talent really came together at the last minute and a fantastic ride from Richard Hughes landed her the Classic. In my book there is enough doubt about the form of Talent when Lady Nouf met her to downgrade the performance of her 2nd place.

In today’s race a fillie who also finished 2nd last time out in a listed event is the Richard Hannon trained Heading North. Starting with her trading record she’s been available to trade on in 5 of her last 6 races including in all of the last 4. When finishing 2nd last time out she nearly made all of the running and was 3 lengths clear of the field through the majority of the race. You could say that she was made too much use of too early and with Hughes back on board today I’d expect him to try & hold on to her for a little longer. That said the top 2 pulled 5 lengths clear of the field in this race and there is every chance that the market could have things totally wrong in it’s judgment of the respective form on offer when comparing Lady Nouf & Heading North.

With her front running style I’m expecting Heading North to trade much shorter in running at some point & I think there is a very good chance that she could provide a not so unexpected surprise for the readers of this blog.

Heading North can be backed now for 2 points at 8.5 at the books (bet365). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.2, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.4 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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A Tiresome Trade

13 Jun 13 08:21
In the 16.30 at Newbury Thakana is pitched into a handicap for the 1st time and whilst she doesn't fit the profile of the typical horse for this blog I'm impressed with the way that her maiden form has worked out. In her last two races she's finished 2nd both times however the winners of those races have both come out since and performed very well in handicaps above the grade that Thakana is going in today.

In her small number of races to date she's proven her self as fairly consistent and she likes to be positioned towards the head of affairs. With some strong maiden form to her name she could just make a mockery of her opening mark and with her likely running style being a prominent one I'm expecting her to trade shorter in running at some point in the race.

Thakana can be backed now for 2 points at 5.0 widely at the books. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 3.7, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.2 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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PS: Thakana is the Hindi word for "to tire or wear out" FYI!
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An Exceedingly Good Trade

12 Jun 13 10:15
You'll often see the same horses popping up on this blog again & again & today is no exception given we've traded on Exceedexpectations before and he goes again today in the 15.30 at Beverley. He is a progressive gelding who likes to get on with things & is usually positioned right on the speed and this has meant he's been available to trade on in 10 of his last 11 races. They are stepping back in trip with him which was tried for the 1st time out last time at Leicester, he managed a 2nd place but I think that he's going to be more suited to the uphill climb over the 2nd half of the Beverley course which should start to bring his stamina into play.

The others who like to be on the speed are Eney Mack and Talent Scout however both of these have wide draws and will have to work harder to get across to the rails if they want to adopt these tactics. If Exceedexpectations is able to make it a strongly run race from the front then he should trade shorter in running at some point and has every chance of being in the shake up come the finish line.

Exceedexpectations can be backed now for 2 points at 7.0 at the books (stan james, coral). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.1, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.5 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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We've traded on Moment In Time successfully for all 3 of her races so far this season and she goes again today in the 14.40 at Haydock in her toughest task to date however when you find these genuine horses they are well worth following even when they step up in grade because they can sometimes provide a surprise result at a big price.

This is what I'm hoping for today given her healthy price of 18/1. She was soundly beaten last time out by Frankle's full brother Noble Mission however the winning distance only tells part of the story as Moment In Time was able to get him in some trouble around 2f from home and the favourite who started at 1.64 traded as big as 5.4 in running before eventually getting on top. Noble Mission was stepping down in grade that day and should be winning group races for the rest of the season if he gets his head together.

Moment In Time's trading record is perfect being available at the prices required in every single one of her 10 races so far. She will have to step up considerably to win this however the step back in trip to 1m3f should suit & given a couple at the top of the market don't have the most consistent profile's I am expecting her to significantly out run her odds.

Moment In Time can be backed for 2 points at 19.0 at the books (Bet365, coral, stan james). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 13.5, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 12.0 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Trading Freely

08 Jun 13 12:08
In the 16.30 at Chester I think we can gain a trade from David Barron's 4 year old gelding Free Spin. He's been available to trade on in 8 of his last 10 races with one of the exceptions being in a race 2 classes above that wich he competes in today. In a huge field at Chester of 17 it's very possible that many of these won't be able to get into it at all, he has a decent enough draw relatively speaking in stall 7 and he likes to sit just on the heels of the leaders.

Free spin should be able to do this again today before delivering his challenge into the final straight. At this point his price should shorten up to give us a trade.

Free spin can be backed now for 2 pointa at 8.0 at the books (lads). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.9, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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A Trespassing Trade

08 Jun 13 10:39
Everyone knows just how much Dr Marwan Koukash loves to have a winner at Chester and in the 15.20 he has a pretty good chance with the ultra consistent Area Fifty One. This horse has put in 3 solid efforts so far this season with a victory & a 2nd place at Epsom & a really good run over course & distance here at Chester where he was up against it with his draw. The last day at Chester he traded from a BSP of 10.0 down to 4.0 from a terrible berth in stall 8.

Today he is much better drawn in stall 4 meaning he can sit closer to the inside rail, he's a hold up type so we can expect him to make up ground in the final 1/4 of the race, he should be right in the mix come the finish line & I'm expecting him to improve for the firmer ground. At the very least he should shorten up in running to give the traders an easier profit but he also has a great chance of getting home 1st to scoop the pot.

Area Fifty One can be backed now for 2 points at 7.0 at the books (fred). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.1, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.4 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Mcbirney In The Lucky Last

07 Jun 13 08:32
In the last race at Newmarket I think we can eek a trade from the hold up type Mcbirney. After spending the winter running on the all weather he returned to turf over 1m4f at Newmarket last time out where he was placed after being the outsider of 9 runners. Mcbirney has a smooth traveling style which enables him to make eyecatching ground through his races on the bridle. He's been available to trade on in 5 of his last 6 races and with 5lb claimer Robert Tart retaining the ride for today a very similar hold up tactic can be used to great effect.

As he makes ground through the 2nd part of the race I would expect his price to shorten up to give us a trade, any further improvement on his last time out effort should also put him right in the mix for a victory.

Mcbirney can be backed now for 2 points at 9.0 at the books (hills, 365). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.6, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.7 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 15.45 at Newmarket Ryan Moore takes the ride on Elusive Flame who rarely runs a bad race. Last time out in a very hot handicap at Newmarket she traded from a BSP of 184.0 down to 4.2 in running after displaying blistering early speed. She’s been available to trade on in 11 of her last 12 races with the only exception being her seasonal reappearance this year where she was entitled to be a little rusty.

Having proven her ability in a better race than today’s contest now she drops down in grade she has a great chance of registering a victory. She should be prominent through the early stages as she attempts to make all and if she can get her rivals off the bridle around 2f from home her price should shorten up to at the least give us a trade.

Elusive Flame can be backed for 2 points at 8.0 at the books (stan james, fred, boyles). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.9, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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A Trade In The Lucky Last

06 Jun 13 18:41
It’s taken until the last race of the day to find a valid trading proposition but sometimes good things come to those who wait! In the 21.00 at Sandown the one I want to turn to is the Clive Cox trained Highland Duke. He’s traded to 1.13 & 1.02 in his last two races and he’s been available at the prices required in each of his last 5 races.  Highland duke has proven himself to be more than capable & consistent within this grade and he could be considered to be unlucky not to have registered a victory so far this year.

He’s likely to make his challenge around 2f from home although I’d rather that he was delivered a little later than he has been so far this year so that his run doesn’t flatten out again and he isn’t nabbed on the line! Regardless if he runs is usual race he should at the least trade much shorter in running.

Highland Duke can be backed now for 2 points at 5.0 at the books. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 3.7, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.2 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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