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After a good showing from Kingscroft yesterday I’m definitely starting to feel my way into the clutch of hard & genuine Mark Johnston horses and one who was a regular fixture on this blog last season was the 3 year old gelding Salutation. He runs today in the 21.15 at Haydock and this is very much his sort of race.

He’s been competing in some very hot handicaps this season most notably last time out at Royal Ascot in the King George V Stakes where he finished a creditable 6th after starting at a BSP of 50.0. Today is a drop in grade to a class 4 handicap which he’s much more at home in. Salutation has an exuberant front running style and he loves nothing more than being able to dominate a field, something he’s struggled with in the big field handicaps he’s been in so far this season.

The other horses in this race are lightly raced, unexposed types who could have any amount of improvement in them. However they are inexperienced & could literally be anything! In contrast Salutation is a battle hardened handicapper who has been mixing it with other top horses all season. I want to side with his proven consistency and anything that gets past this tough front runner will have definitely earned their victory.

Salutation can be backed now for 2 points at 5.5 at the books (hills). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.0 or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.5 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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A Crowning Trade

04 Jul 13 08:44
About this time every year the Mark Johnston stable seems to hit form, I distinctly remember last year about 30% of my selections all coming from this stable as they went through a purple patch in the run up to Glorious Goodwood. In the last 2 days Johnston has sent out 6 runners, 4 of which have been winners (one of those 6 also refused to race). So I’m keen to be one of the 1st to jump on this bandwagon if it has indeed just started rolling.

In the 17.50 at Haydock I think he has a very good chance with the Dr Marwan Koukash owned Kingscroft. This horse has now dropped to below his last winning mark of 82. Since he rose through the weights initially as a 3 year old Kingscroft has only twice dipped below a mark of 83 and both times he gained a victory at his 1st attempt of a weight of either 82 or 83. This is the 3rd time that Kingscroft has dropped to this weight & last time out he was very unlucky to be be beaten by a neck after trading at 1.01 in running.

Today everything should come together to give Kingscroft his winning chance. He is off a winning mark, Haycock is a track which favors hold up horses and Kingscroft’s consistency tells us that if he can repeat what he nearly always delivers then he has every chance of getting up to land all the money.

Kingscroft has also been available to trade on in each of his last 5 outings.

Kingscroft can be backed now at 5.5 at the books and 6.4 on Betfair. I would expect one of the books to go at least 6.0 (5/1) at some point during the morning. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.4, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.85 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 15.30 at Catterick Miss Macnamara is the current favourite after she ran out a 1 ½ length winner over Zaplamation also at Catterick 1 month ago. In this rematch I think that the John Quinn gelding Zaplamation could be the one to be on for a couple of reasons.

First of all the handicapper has had his say & Zaplamation meets Miss Macnamara 3lb better off at the weights today, to add further assistance a new claiming jockey James J. Doyle has been booked & he’s able to claim a hefty 7lbs therefore giving Zaplamation an enormous 10lb pull in the weights, plenty enough to reverse the placings over 1m7f.

I’m not one to go overboard about the booking of claimers because their inexperience usually doesn’t make up for the claim. However given James J. Doyle has had just 9 rides under rules he’s managed an impressive 2 victories (coming in his last 4 races), a strike rate of 22% is something many of the established jockeys would love to be able to maintain. So he’s clearly quite tidy & John Quinn gave him his 1st ever ride and on his 2nd ride for Quinn, the apprentice landed his 1st ever victory. Today is his 3rd ride for the same trainer.

Zaplamation has been available to trade on in 5 of his last 6 starts proving he’s more than capable within this grade & off his current mark. He’s gone odds on in each of his last two races so that elusive victory can’t be too far away.

Zaplamation can be backed now for 2 points at 5.5 widely at the books. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.0, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.5 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 16.45 at Brighton Decent Fella is going to be a popular selection after hosing up by 5 lengths last time out however the winning margin doesn’t tell the whole story as through the early part of the race he was being pushed along and actually traded at 60% above his BSP in running. He did get on top towards the end but he shoulders a 6lb penalty which should go some way to reducing his advantage.

The one I want to be on for trading purposes is a gelding who I’ve put up many times over the last couple of years, this is the Conor Dore trained gelding Exceedexpectations. He’s been available to trade on in 12 of his last 13 outings because he likes to be either on the speed or to sit on the heels of the leaders. Last time out he faded in the final furlong however he was stepping up in grade that day & today he’s back in the grade he belongs & where he’s proven time & again he’s capable of going very close.

Hayley turner was the last winning jockey aboard this horse & with her in the saddle again today I’m hoping she can control things from the front meaning that at the very least he will trade much shorter in running & may just last home for all the money.

Exceedexpectations can be backed now for 2 points at 8.5 at the books (victor). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.2, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.4 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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I'm off to Glastonbury this week so given that will take us to the end of July I thought it would be a good time to run through the results of all stoozbet selections for both trading & punting purposes from the start of the Flat Season Proper (1st April 2013).

I have been keeping a record of all results over at www.stoozbet.com/results-archive for anyone to see each day. I am continuing to post trading advice over here on this blog but it is complimented by some straight punting horses which are blogged over on that website so as to keep them separate to avoid confusion. Essentially over on stoozbet.com I treat all trading horses as punting selections for those results. Every selection is tweeted out by twitter.com/stoozbet at the time of publishing & all results have taken account of rule 4 deductions.

Punting Results.

April - 30.5 points staked. Profit of 14 points
May - 33 points staked. Profit of 3.6 points
June - 34 points staked. Profit of 15 points

TOTALS. 102.5 points staked. Profit = 32.6 points. ROI = 31.8%

Trading Results

Total trades advised = 65
Total successful for 1 point = 45
Total successful for 0.6 point = 6
Total didn't trade = 14

Profit on winning trades = 48.6, losses on losing trades = 28. Net profit trading = 20.6 points. ROI = 15.8% (given 2 points invested into every trade)



So there you have it, on a Return On Investment (ROI) basis it pays more to be a punter. I appreciate that many people prefer the trading style which has much lower variance however I always say that those who are prepared to bear great risk shall receive great rewards. Fortunately both strategies generate healthy profits.

I'll be back from 2nd July ready to go hard at the 2nd half of the flat season & lets see if we can kick on & double those figures. Any questions just let me know in the comments.

Stooz
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Tonight in the 19.50 at Thirsk I think we can gain a trade from the tough filly Zarosa over 2 miles. She has been available to trade on in each of her last 7 races. After winning her last race of last season she picked up right where she left off this season with a win 1st time out over 1m4f. She then stepped up to 2m & was just edged out of it by another horse who was landing a hat-trick.

The favourite for this race Enchanted Garden was impressive last time out however that performance came come what out of the blue and he is no guarantee to back that up. Zarosa is a battler which is exactly what you want at the end of 2 miles & the fact she does everything on the bridle without having to be asked too much by her jockey means that she's highly likely to go shorter than her SP at the very least during the run.

Zarosa can be backed now for 2 points at 4.0 widely at the books, if you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 2.98, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 2.58 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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A Glorious Ascot Trade

22 Jun 13 08:43
In the 16.25 at Ascot I think we can gain a trade from the Kevin Ryan trained York Glory. This horse is a strong traveler and has been available to trade on in 12 of his last 13 races.

He was stuck for a run last time out but still managed to finish 2nd of 19 and today he goes up in the weights but clearly hasn’t been able to fully demonstrate what he’s capable of in this grade yet this season. He’s in great form and should again give a bold showing to at the very least go much shorter in running at some point.

Jamie Spencer takes the ride today and we can expect him to make some eyecatching headway late on and he's perfectly entitled to be pitching into the mix come the finish line.

York Glory can currently be backed for 2 points at 19.0 at the books (coral). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 13.5, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 12.0 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck

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In the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes 15.05 at Ascot is a race with some strong form lines through some of the runners with Chigun, Dank, Ladys First and Thistle Bird all having met on the track already this season. The most consistent of these (although perhaps not necessarily the best) is Thistle Bird. The Roger Charlton trained mare has been available to trade on in 5 of her last 6 races and has progressed nicely from being a listed winner to winning a group 3 race last time out at Epsom. Today is another step up in grade however she's proven her self capable of mixing it with many of these runners trading as low as 1.27 when getting beat by Dank & Chigun at Newmarket.

She appears to have responded well to more positive tactics and James Doyle will likely have her positioned towards the front of things, when the pressure comes on she won't cave in either and will keep trying all the way to the line. The aforementioned race at Newmarket was over 1m1f and whilst looking the likely winner about 1f from home, hence trading to 1.27, she didn't quite stay on well enough for her efforts & faded into 3rd. Today's step back to 1m should be just what is required and I'm expecting another bold showing which should at the very least get us a trade & if she's in the mix up come the finish line anything can happen.

Paddy Power will be going 8/1 about Thistle Bird at 9am in the morning so this is the time to step in & secure a Best Odds Guaranteed price.

Thistle Bird can be backed for 2 points at 9.0 at the books (paddy power at 9am). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.6, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.7 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Trading To Attention

18 Jun 13 01:14
The 17.00 at Ascot is a typle wide open big meeting handicap and one think I think we can be sure of, that over the marathon flat distance of 2m4f you are going to need to stay seriously well to win this. Within this field the one I want to side with is one of the many with a national hunt pedigree and that is the Nicky Henderson runner Lieutenant Miller. This gelding nearly gained a victory in a 3m hurdle race in heavy ground over the winter so his staying abilities aren't in question at all. He also has a smooth traveling style which has meant he's been available to trade on in 13 of his last 14 races.

Today he steps up in grade however after going quite close on a few occasions prior to landing a victory at Doncaster last time out I'm left with the impression that he may be well handicapped and a faster pace that he's likely to get in a handicap at the Royal Meeting could be just what is required to see him to best effect. Ex NH jockey Graham Lee is in the saddle & he is a great judge of pace over these longer distances so if he lets them all get on with it up front through the 1st half of the race we should see the partnership make up ground through the 2nd half & I'm expecting them to trade shorter in running at the very least.

Lieutenant Miller can be backed for 2 points at 13.0 at the books (hills, paddy, boyles). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 9.4, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 8.2 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Another Noble Trade

14 Jun 13 08:22
In the 16.55 at Sandown I’m looking to return to another horse that we’ve already traded on successfully this season. This is the Charles Hills trained Noble Bull. Last time out he traded from 5.5 down to 2.32 before fading in the final stages. His trading record is excellent being available in each of his last 6 races at the prices required.

Last time out he came from last position with his run & was able to make up ground on the bridle however the efforts clearly took their toll given he faded in the closing stages. This race is in the same grade yet because of his weakening last time out he’s available at a much larger price at 20/1. This seems much too large and if he can be positioned closer to the pace through the early part of the race then he has every chance of lasting home much better.

Given his smooth traveling style I’m still expecting Noble Bull to trade regardless.

Noble Bull can be backed now for 2 points at 21.0 at the books (paddy, stan james). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 15.0, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 13.0 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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