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A Tourist Trade

16 Jul 13 10:01
In the 15.30 at Beverley the mount of Graham Gibbons, Kalk Bay has run himself into a decent vein of form with a string of 3 good performances since the start of June. I think he’s just about off a workable mark and 1m is about his correct distance. He’s been available to trade on in each of his last 3 races and with very similar conditions I’m expecting a bold showing again today.

Kalk Bay is likely to sit in mid-field before making headway with about 2f to go and as he has an easy way of delivering his challenge as he makes up ground we should see him at the very least trade shorter in running.

Kalk Bay can be backed now for 2 points at 5.0 at the books, if you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.0, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.5 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 20.00 tonight at Windsor I think that Zeyran should go very well for Lady Cesil. In her first try in handicap company she ran out an easy winner and should probably have followed up last time out but having watched that race back she was probably made too much use of  too soon & was just nabbed on the line after trading at 1.3 in running.

This is her correct trip and if Tom Quealley can hold her together for a little longer then she can see it out & hopefully last time. She likes to go from the front & does most of her work on the bridle, for this reason I’m expecting her at the very least to trade much shorter in running.

Zeyran can be backed now for 2 points at 4.0 at the books. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 2.98, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 2.58 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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The King's Stand at Royal Ascot was a pretty horrific race for me. Having backed Sole Power every race this season I deserted him for the South African Shea Shea and thought I had made the correct decision pretty much all the way until the final 1/4 of a furlong when Johnny Murrtagh brought Sole Power home with a rattle to get up on the line. Probably one of the most tortuous results of the season & one to perhaps make me change my mind about which sprinter I believe to be the best...or maybe not.

I think today is a day to stick to my guns. I am in no doubt that these two horses are the best sprinters in training in the world right now. Shea Shea managed to dispatch Sole Power twice over in Meydan and is edging the match up's between the pair 2-1. I do believe that Johnny Murrtagh rode literally the perfect race on Sole Power to be victorious at Ascot & for all Sole Power's burst of speed is devastating he only has that one blast of speed which has to be delivered with pin point accuracy. Over 6f it's going to be harder for Murtagh to hold Sold Power together for long enough & retain enough energy to deliver that burst where as Shea Shea already has some good form in the book over 6f.

I'm minded that Shea Shea is quite possibly the best sprinter in the world & I'm expecting him to prove this today, he will likely take a tow into the race from the speedier types he has to choose from with his middle draw and as the others fall away & the class is left to fight it out I'm expecting him to trade much shorter in running.

Shea Shea can be backed now for 2 points at 5.0 widely at the books. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.4, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.2 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Attributing A Trade

13 Jul 13 00:12
In the lucky last at Ascot (17.25) Hugo Palmer's colt Ascription has an enviable trading record being available at the prices required in 7 of his 8 racecourse starts with the only exception being his 1st outing under rules. He's only registered one victory inspite of trading quite short in running which suggests that a step down in trip could be just what is required to get this promising colt back to winning ways.

He's often arrived traveling the best at the 1f pole only to find little more for pressure so should it be a strongly run 7f today he should be able to cruise into the race and deliver his customary challenge & he has much more chance of lasting home. At the very least I'm expecting his trading record to remain intact.

Ascription can be backed now for 2 points at 11.0 widely at the books. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 8.0, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 7.0 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 14.30 at Ascot the one I want to side with is the progressive Jane Chapple-Hyam trained Mull Of Killough. He's been victorious in 4 of his last 7 races including a comfortable winner in two group 3 races. Today marks a step up to a Group 2 contest however given his progressive profile I wouldn't want to be betting against him making further progression today. The excellent William Buick has been booked and this genuine gelding will keep on improving for his jockey's urgings all the way to the line. Progressive horses also seem to be the most genuine & I love to back them because no matter what they will keep on trying all the way to the line.

Mull Of Killough fits that mould and I expect him to track the pace before delivering his long & sustained challenge up the steady Ascot hill. At the very least I'm expecting him to go much shorter in running.

Mull Of Killough can be backed now for 2 points at 10.0 at the books (paddy). You will also get 11.0 at **** at 8.30am tomorrow if you're fortunate enough to have an account! If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 7.2, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 6.4 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Ravin' About Maven!

12 Jul 13 08:24
In the 16.40 at York I think we can gain a trade from the in form Tim Easterby trained mare, Maven. She’s run 3 of her last 4 races at York and in all of her last 4 races she’s not been outside of the top 3.

She likes to sit just off the heels of the leaders before making her challenge around 2f from home. She does most of her work on the bridle which means she usually makes eyecatching headway in the latter stages of her races. I’m also impressed by her attitude where last time out she kept going when joined by another horse deep inside the furlong & held on for the victory. With her victory last time out she beat a Mark Johnston filly called Star Lahib who subsequently came out last Saturday & won a valuable handicap two grades above the class of race that they go in today.

So with that form firmly franked I’m expecting another bold showing from Maven today which should at the very least get us a trade.

Maven can be backed now for 2 points at 6.5 at the books (stan james, lads). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.8, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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A Highland Trade

11 Jul 13 08:37
There’s plenty of great racing at Newmarket today as the July Festival kicks off however in terms of having a bet I’d prefer to wait until later on in the evening & the 19.30 at Epsom.

In this race Highland Duke is a Clive Cox trained gelding who’s been running well recently without winning. In his last 3 races he’s traded to 1.57, 1.13 & 1.02 respectively. I’m sure that this is his grade & he’s also capable of winning off his current mark. Last time out at Sandown over 1m2f he was slightly free through the early stages which meant he didn’t quite have enough in reserve to last home. Today connections have dropped him back in trip to 1m which could be just what is required given how easily he has been traveling in his races with 1f to go so far.

Highland Duke likes to be towards the front of things & with the assistance of Adam Kirby who is having an excellent year & riding full of confidence we should see this pair kick on from the front. At the very least they should trade much shorter in running but I’ll be placing my bet on them lasting home to scoop the lot.

Highland Duke can be backed now for 2 points at 6.0 at the books (victor, bet365) or 6.4 on Betfair. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.4, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.85 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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A Trade Defined By Birth

09 Jul 13 02:50
I'm out all day so posting overnight unfortunately.

In the 16.30 at Pontefract I think we can trade on the 4 year old gelding Chester Aristocrat. Starting with his trading record, he's been available at the prices we require in each of his last 10 races. He likes to be positioned  towards the head of affairs and is able to maintain a high cruising speed whilst keeping enough in reserve for a short spurt of speed inside the final furlong. He's bang in form as proven with a good 2nd in a better class of race than this just recently at the end of June. He's actually not been out of the top 4 in any of his last 10 races and today's drop in grade could be just what is required to register another victory for this progressive horse.

Chester Aristocrat can be backed now for 2 points at 7.0 at the books (victor). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.1, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.5 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Stuck In A Moment In Time

06 Jul 13 00:40
I think I've put Moment In Time up for nearly all of her races this season. She's paid the traders consistently being available to trade on every time however last time out she hit the jackpot for the punters when getting up to win a group 3 event after being advised at a mid-morning price of 18/1. See more here http://community.betfair.com/stoozbet/blog/2013/06/08/a-moment-for-a-big-priced-trade

Moment In Time goes again today in the 14.55 at Haydock. Clearly the cat is now out of the bag & we aren't going to be seeing any monster prices like that about her any time soon. However whilst this race is a step up again when I look down her list of competitors there is not a single horse in there that scares me. I know that Moment In Time will have to improve yet again to win this contest but she is one of the most genuine horses in training & always pulls out something extra for her jockey. Over course & distance last time out Jim Crowley judged it to perfection and I think a carbon copy performance could be in the offing. This filly's attitude is the reason we're going back for more, she'll definitely put herself into contention coming up the finishing straight which will mean her price will shorten up in running. From that point onwards anyone who's going to beat her will have their ability seriously tested.

Moment In Time can be backed now for 2 points at 5.5 at the books (stan james). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.0, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.5 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 14.20 at Sandown the 5 year old mare Fair Value has been in outstanding form this season & after watching her previous 3 efforts so far I think she’s proven herself as consistent enough to be a valid trading proposition. She has bags of early speed which she nearly used to great effect in the fastest 5f race in the world, the Epsom Dash. That day she looked to be home for all money inside the final furlong and even traded at 1.04 in running but was grabbed by some fast finishing types just on the line.

Her front running style has been a hallmark of her performances this season and I’m expecting another bold display today which should at the very least see her trade much shorter in running. One of these days she will last home and given we’re getting a healthy double figure price about backing her those who do hold her all the way to the finish line may just get rewarded.

Fair Value can be backed now for 2 points at 13.0 at the books (victor, paddy). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 9.4 or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 8.2 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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