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Stoozbet's Trading Blog
I've put Jamaican Bolt up twice for a trade already this season & both times he was made a non runner due to the firm ground. However with 7mm of rain yesterday at Ascot hopefully he can finally return to the track today. Given we haven't seen him since 30th March the investment thesis remains the same, which is:

He was progressive last season notching up 3 victories and on his re-appearance this season he ran a good race over 6f trading from a BSP of 10.o down to 2.22 in play before fading in the final furlong into 5th place. In his last race of last season he finished 2nd by a neck to Jack Dexter who is now competing in group company, also that day behind him was Mass Rally who came out in a similar race yesterday over 6f & won.

Jamacian Bolt's form is stacking up right left & centre and the drop back in trip to 5f today should be exactly what is required given his early speed and the fact he wasn't quite able to sustain it over 6f. Jamaican Bolt's overall trading record is excellent being available at the required prices in 10 of his 11 races to date.

Jamaican Bolt can be backed for 2 points at 9.0 (8/1) at the books (bet365), if you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.6, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.7 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 15.55 at Newmarket Body And Soul boasts an impressive strike rate with 5 wins from his 9 racecourse starts. Almost as impressively I managed to back him on one of the outings where he didn’t win! He has an easy way of traveling through a race meaning he always just does enough and last time out he was doing so very comfortably when making the step up to a group 3 race. He traded as low as 2.22 in running this day but was eventually outclassed.

Today back in a more suitable grade he’s up in the weights however with proven group form I wouldn’t want to be betting against him overcoming the penalty. Body & Soul tends to race towards the head of affairs which has given him a 100% trading record being available at the prices required in every one of his 9 races to date.

Body And Soul
can be backed now for 2 points at 12.0 at the books (coral, stan james). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 8.8, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 7.6 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck

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A Currency Trade

27 Jul 13 08:04
In the 16.40 at York I think that duel code runner Moidore has a very good chance of going close. He ran over course & distance in may where he finished 2nd to Well Sharp & a clear 2nd at that. Well Sharp has franked that form by coming out again & winning easily in a better class of race. Last time out Moidore finished a respectable 6th in the Northumberland plate and whilst he was probably a little out of his league that day, todays race is much more up his street.

He’s generally positioned in mid division & will make progress throughout the 2nd part of the race. If he upholds his form lines then he has a very good chance of getting home for all money however at the very least he should trade shorter in running at some point.

Moidore can be backed now for 2 points at 8.5 at the books (victor). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.2, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.7 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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A Long Distance Ascot Trade

26 Jul 13 08:01
In the 15.10 at Ascot I think the value lies with the Mark Johnston runner Broxbourne. She fits the mold of a tough Johnston filly and she’s highly unexposed over the longer distances of 2m+. This is crucial because in my opinion from watching her races she seems to improve more the further she goes. Today is just her 3rd try at 2m+ & last time out she finished 2nd to another long distance horse that I’ve been following this season, Lieutenant Miller. After beating Broxbourne into 2nd place Lieutenant Miller went on to finish 3rd at Royal Ascot in the Ascot Stakes thus giving Broxbourne’s form a nice boost.

The Johnston yard is now firmly in top gear so any amount of improvement could be expected from his runners. Given this is her best trip she has a very good chance of making the step up and as she improves further towards the business end of the race she should at the very least trade shorter in running.

Broxbourne can be backed now for 2 points at 7.5 at the books (coral). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.5, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.8 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the lucky last at Sandown (16.50) George Baker trains a horse of the same name & the 6 year old gelding has been performing with credit in this grade this season. He’s been available to trade on in 5 of his last 6 races due to his natural inclination to sit towards the head of affairs. He also does much of his work on the bridle allowing his jockey to sit still for as long as possible.

Last time out over 1m his stamina was tested so today’s step back to 7f should suit perfectly. Excellent apprentice Thomas Brown has been booked and at a double figure price we can expect a big run.

George Baker can be backed now for 2 points at 15.0 (b365, stan james). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 11.0, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 9.4 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 15.00 at Catterick the young filly Milly’s Secret is starting to establish her credentials as a good trading horse. She’s traded odds on in each of her 4 races to date & has gained 1 victory.

Last time out she went down by just a head in a class 4 nursery handicap. Today she drops in grade into a class 5 nursery handicap & if it were not for the Mark Johnston runner Crowdmania lining up then she would be a warm favourite. I can’t help but feel that the Johnston runner is being priced up on stable form & he has no form outside of maiden company.

This is creating value elsewhere & I want to be on Milly’s Secret who can hopefully at the very least keep up her trading record.

Milly’s Secret
can be backed now for 2 points at 5.0 at the books. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 3.7, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.2 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Time To Fancy Six Wives

22 Jul 13 17:42
In the 21.00 at Beverley one a past regular horse for this blog runs again although she’s been on the “watch” list for most of this season. This is the front running mare Six Wives. Given her run style she often trades much shorter in running but finds it difficult to last home. The in running backers are now wise to this so it’s become more difficult to gain a trade however today I feel that conditions are right for a bold display from Six Wives.

She’s drawn nicely in stall 2 to get out & grab the lead. She’s also dropped in grade from that which she’s been competing in all season and it’s the 1st time she’s been entered into a class 5 handicap since dropping below her last winning mark. Having held off backing her all season I feel today is the day to step in & put the money down.

Six Wives can be backed now for 2 points at 5.0 widely at the books. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 3.7, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.2 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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The 15.40 at Newmarket is a wide open handicap & a solid case can be  made for almost all of the runners. It's no secret that I'm a big fan of both Elusive Flame & Links Drive Lady having backed them both on multiple occasions recently, however at the prices today I think the one to be on is the 4 year old filly Charlotte Rosina. Starting with her trading record, she's been available at the prices required in each of her last 5 races. Last time out at Epsom she looked the winner all the way until the finish line where she was just beaten in a 3 way photo finish.

Today she goes unpenalised for that good effort & she meets the likes of Links Drive Lady who beat her by less than a length in May 5 lbs better off. That combined with some potential improvement should be more than enough to reverse those placings.

Charlotte Rosina can be backed now at 9.0 at the books (skybet) or 8.5 (betvictor), I'll recored the Victor price given they are BOG. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.2, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.5 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Looking For A Sound Trade

19 Jul 13 23:05
In the 14.25 at Newmarket I think that we can gain a trade from the Roger Varian trained filly, Sound Hearts, who is stepping up in trip and I think may just improve for doing so. In her two most recent races in listed events she has turned in good performances and in my opinion she was simply out speeded in the final stages. Stepping up in trip should allow her to use her stamina & willing attitude to greater effect.

Her overall trading record is that she's been available at the prices required in 9 of her last 10 races. Sound Hearts can be run from the front or covered up in mid-field to deliver her challenge late on making her versatile. Frankie Dettori  takes the ride today & over the middle distance & further there are few better judges of pace.

Sound Hearts can be backed now for 2 points at 8.0 at the books (paddy). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.6, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Shooting For The Moon

18 Jul 13 08:14
In the 16.00 at Hamilton I want to turn to the Mark Johnston runner, Space Artist to trade on. He’s traded in 4 of his last 5 races with the only exception being last time out in a race two grades above that which he competes in today. Although he was out classed last time out he was given what I would call a typical Johnston horse ride from the front. There was definitely too much use made of him too soon and he faded late on.

Today he’s returned to his ideal trip of 1m4f and given a front running ride on fast ground we should see Space Artist showing all the potential that he’s promised from his runs to date. At the very least I’m expecting him to trade much shorter in running & given this is his grade a tough front running ride from a typical Johnston horse who’s betting he won’t last home.

Space Artist can be backed now for 2 points at 7.0 at the books (fred, boyles). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.1, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.5 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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