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Stoozbet's Trading Blog

A Scarlet Trade

07 Aug 12 14:31
Back & refreshed from an Olympic break & I'm ready to hopefully start August with a winning trade.

I'm looking in the 19.05 at Ripon at the consistent front runner Scarlet Whispers

She is up in the weights and in a tougher race than the last 2 contests which she has won both times. However it is possible that she may get an easy lead and on a track with a pace bias towards front runners like Ripon this should be enough to see us get a nice trade early on.

She may still drift from her current mark so ensure you back with a best odds bookmaker. You can back for 9/2 (5.5) with both Betvictor & Paddy* for 2 points. If we can get a pre race trade then lay off 2.6 points at 4.0. Or if we have to go in play you can lay off 3.05 points at 3.5.

Best of Luck

*ALWAYS back with Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers if possible, if the horse drifts we will use the ISP to record results & revise our in play lay off price upwards
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July Results

31 Jul 12 17:00
So this trading project has just been going 5 days but I'm going to record each month's results within 1 post. Here are the horses we traded on.

Love Your Looks 7.0 down to 1.29. +1 point
Riot Of Colour 6.8 down to 2.0. +1 point
Moon Trip 5.5 down to 3.3. +1 point
My Kingdom 6.0 down to 1.95. +1 point
Chosen One 6.5 and WON therefore traded down to 1.01. 0.6 points available pre race so taken. +0.6 point
Ladys First. No Trade. -2 points
Ballista 2.75 and WON therefore traded to 1.01. 0.6 points available pre race so taken. +0.6 point
Soap Wars 5.5 (ISP) down to 3.3. +1 point
Cai Shen. No Trade -2 points
Jadanna. No Trade - 2 points
Tabaret. 6.5 down to 4.8 pre race for 0.6 point, 30% profit. +0.6 point

8/11 successful trades

TOTAL = +0.8 point profit.

We've been hit by 2 reverses from our 3 trades today. Perhaps I shouldn't have put up Cai Shen with a health warning and we'd be sat on 2.8 points profit but that's the way things go. I'm off to Goodwood tomorrow to see Frankel in the flesh and will be having a few fun punts rather than the serious trades.

From there I go to London for the Olympics & the start of the Athletics events in the stadium. As a result of this selections will be thin on the ground until Monday.
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In the 16.05 at Beverley a horse called Tabaret runs in a lower grade handicap. This Gelding has done just about everything bar win in his last 2 starts trading down to 1.84 & 1.13 when finishing 3rd both times. For a trader this is a great horse for us because they will regularly run well without being hit by the handicapper enabling us to get a fair few trades from them before they are hit by a rise in the weights.

Tabaret is usually positioned just behind the leaders and will be asked for an effort by Amy Ryan between the 2f & 1f markers when he usually hits the front. This should be enough for us to get our trade and he may or may not hold on for the win, but by this point we will hopefully be home & hosed with our all green screen.

Available to back now for 2 points at 11/2 (6.5) with the bookies* If you take the 6.5 then we can lay off pre race for 2.6 points at 4.8 for 30% profit. If we have to go in play then lay off at 3.05 points at 4.1 to make 1 point & 50% profit all round (after commission)

Best of luck

*ALWAYS back with Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers if possible, if the horse drifts we will use the ISP to record results & revise our in play lay off price upwards
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Back to Goodwood again and the 15.45 is a race focused on one horse at the head of the market called Morawij. This horse is deserving of his market position having won 2 of his 3 starts and improvement is expected for him to take this group 3 contest. However, William Hill have decided to push Morawij out to 2/1 from 8.30 this morning suggesting that they are prepared to take him on & via another runner for a trade I want to too.

Currently at a much nicer price is Jadanna and if I were a straight punter I'd be selecting him EW rather than Morawij for the win. Frankie Dettori's mount has competed in group 2 races his last 2 starts so is stepping down into a group 3 race today. In that respect he's more proven at this level as he's run with credit in both of those group 2 races trading shorter than his SP both times because he likes to be up with the pace and his smooth traveling style enables Frankie to sit still thus bringing his price down to trade about 2 furlongs from home.

Jadanna is available to back for 2 points at 6.9 on here or at 11/2 (6.5) at the bookmakers* If you take the 6.5 then we can lay off pre race for 2.6 points at 4.8 for 30% profit. If we have to go in play then lay off at 3.05 points at 4.1 to make 1 point & 50% profit all round (after commission)

Best of luck

*ALWAYS back with Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers if possible, if the horse drifts we will use the ISP to record results & revise our in play lay off price upwards
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The first race at Goodwood, the 14.00, is the sort that usually gets the bookies off to a great start at these big meetings. I've got 3 trades lined up for today & this is probably the most risky as the size of the field brings in more variables to disrupt how I feel the race may be run to suit our trading horse. However, we wouldn't be dabbling if I didn't think it was worth it & our trade should be comfortable.

The horse in question is the mount of Richard Hughes, Cai Shen. He's stepping down from a group 2 race at Ascot last time out where he controlled the pace from the front which arguably lead to the downfall of Carlton House. In the last class 2 handicap he competed in at Royal Ascot which was a monster 30 runner field he was able to come through from the rear and trade from a BSP of 13.5 down to 2.42. This give me confidence that we will get a trade no matter what tactics are chosen by Richard Hannon.

Cai Shen is available to back now at 9.0 on here & with Bet365* for 2 points, we can then lay 2.6 points at 6.6 for a 30% pre race profit or if we have to go in play to get our trade then lay off 3.05 points at 5.8 to give us a 1 point 50% profit & an all green screen.

Best of luck.

*ALWAYS back with Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers if possible, if the horse drifts we will use the ISP to record results & revise our in play lay off price upwards
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I wanted to trade on Soap Wars when he made his seasonal reappearance last week however backing horses to be in form & run in the way that is expected after an 8 month lay off isn't usually the best idea so I sat back & watched as he bounced out, lead the field and made a very good job of attempting to make all. He traded down to 1.51 in the process and finished 2nd and just looked like he'd bumped into the winner that day.

Today he goes again in an almost identical race the 15.15 at Yarmouth, so we can hope to get a nice trade out of him now we know that he's in as good form as ever.

Back him now at 3.9 for 2 points giving a lay of 2.6 points at 2.96 for 30% profit pre race or if we have to go in play lay off 3.05 points at 2.58 to give you a 1 point profit & an all green screen.

Best of luck.
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This is the shortest priced selection yet for this trading project but it's been forced due to some key non runners & the withdrawals give our trading horse more chance of having his own way out in front therefore making the trade easier so it's swings & roundabouts.

We're lookng at the Ayr 15.40 and the Tom Dascombe trained Ballista in a similar race last time out he traded down to 1.57 and this looks an easier race for the same grade. He's run with credit in higher class races previously so I'm expecting a good showing which will give us a trade at least.

He's available to back now for 2.75 everywhere for 2 points, you can then lay off 2.6 points at 2.08 pre race for 30% profit or if we have to go in play then lay off 3.05 points at 1.8.

Best of Luck
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A Good Looking Lady

29 Jul 12 11:51
After monitoring the prices all morning I'm now ready to put up the 3rd selection to trade to us today in the 15.50 at Pontefract.

The filly we're looking at is Ladys First who has been on the drift all morning because the money has come for the top 2 in the market. Ladys First has traded at odds on in all of her last 3 races & the last 2 of those were listed events.

She's in this race at the bottom of the weights & is in receipt of nearly a stone from the leaders in the markets. For whatever reason she's under the market's radar right now but with her smooth traveling style just off the leaders shoulders the market should take notice in running and give us our trade between the 2f & 1f markers.

I'm hoping that the drift has now reached it's maximum and she's available to back for 2 points with Sportingbet at 8.0. To gain 30% profit lay off for 2.6 points at 6.0 pre race. If we have to go in-play then lets shoot for 50% profit so lay off 3.05 points at 5.2.

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The Ruth Carr trained Chosen One is the selection in the 17.20 at Pontefract to get us a trade.

The gelding is a consistent front runner and has a great draw from stall 3, he could get away from the field whilst the others are bumping around the bend which will cause his price to drop enough for a trade.

Betfred are currently best priced 11/2 (6.5) so we can back for 2 points, if we can get a 30% trade pre race then we'll lay off 2.6 points at 4.9. If we have to go in play then we'll look for a 50% profit by laying 3.05 points at 4.1 for an all round green screen of 1 point profit.
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In the 16.20 at Pontefract the 2 horses we're interested in for trading purposes are Beckermet and My Kingdom. Both geldings have good trading records both trading as we would require in each of their last 6 races.

They are drawn beside each other which makes the selection slightly easier, I'm giving the nod to My Kingdom. There is a draw bias to the lower drawn horses at Ponte and we can expect Beckermet to bounce out and take up the lead early on from stall 2. This should server to give My Kingdom the perfect tow into the race and the geldings smooth traveling style should see him go very short in running.

My Kingdom is widely available to back at the bookmakers at 5/1 (6.0) and also on here. I'd recommend backing with a Best Odds Guaranteed bookmaker to help mitigate any risk of a drift.

If we back for 6.0 for 2 points, our lay off point for a 30% pre race trade is 4.4 which we should take if it's available. If we need to go in play then we will shoot for a 50% profit in which case lay off 3 points at 3.85.

Best of Luck
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