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In the 1st race at Haydock (13.45) Ascription takes to the racecourse for the 1st time since winning for us at Goodwood however in spite of his easy win that day he isn't at a backable price under a hefty 11lb penalty. In stead I'd rather side with the front running Chosen Character who finished a very good 2nd last time out at Chester in a very similar race to today, he goes again today unpenalised for that & I'm expecting another big run. He's in good form being available to trade on in 4 of his last 5 races and Natasha Eaton who has lots of experience on him takes off a useful 5 lbs.

He will try his best to get a lead although it's not vital for him to be 100% at the front,  he should at the very least still be thereabouts come the furlong pole at which point his price should shorten up to give us a trade.

Choosen Character can be backed now for 2 points at 9.0 at the books (lads). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.6, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.7 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 20.20 at Newmarket one horse that regularly features on this blog, Elusive Flame runs, now whilst she does love to blaze a trail up front and is still a valid trading proposition however her key weakness is seeing out her races & the in running players are becoming wise to her running style.

The one I’m interested in today is the Micky Hammond trained Dark Castle. Last time out he finished 4th in a really hot Saturday handicap at York & traded at even money in running. He runs today from a 1 lb lower mark in a race of a lower grade so given we know he’s in fine fettle I’m expecting another big run.

He is likely to be covered up through the early part of the race before being delivered with his challenge around the 1f pole at which point he should at the very least trade shorter in running.

Dark Castle can be backed now for 2 points at 8.0 at the books (victor). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.9, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 15.40 at Haydock Hay Dude is dropped in class and has a very good chance of going close today. He’s been available to trade on in 6 of his 7 races to date because he travels through his races very powerfully. He is usually positioned in the middle of the pack and is often appearing to gallop all over the field heading into the final furlong.

He’s not quite managed to get his head in front but with today’s drop in grade he should be much more comfortable & can now translate his strong traveling style into a better finishing result.

Hay Dude can be backed now at 5.0 at the books, if you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 3.7, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.2 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 14.30 at Chester tomorrow our friend from earlier in the week, Ascription, is turned out again and given the ease of his victory I can see how many people will be tempted to back him today. The issue for Ascription is that the reasons for backing him at Goodwood are wrong for him today. The selection at Goodwood was based on the draw and from a low number he was able to sit right on the speed & run the rail all the way to the finish line. Today Ascription is drawn in the car park at Chester, widest of all in stall 13. To have any chance he is going to have to show blistering early speed to cross the field & get a position towards the rail.

In contrast there is a natural front runner drawn in stall 1 at a very generous price of 14/1! This is the 7 year old gelding One Scoop Or Two. He has very good early speed and last time out at Chester he was able to cross in front of the whole field & grab that nearside rail, he traded as short as 1.1 in running but was just touched off in a photo finish. Today he won't have to use that early speed to gain an early position because he has been granted it by the draw. When he goes off & gets around the bend he may just be very hard to peg back.

Hopefully I'm not wrong but at the current price this looks to be one of the best bets I've seen in a long time.

One Scoop Or Two can be backed now at 15.0 at the books (boyles, victor). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 11.0, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 9.4 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Just the one selection today in the 14.40 at Goodwood. The Mark Johnston runner Royal Skies tried stepping up in both class & distance last time out at Royal Ascot and simply didn't stay the 2m distance, he still traded from 11.4 down to 1.53, that's no mean feat given he finished 10th of 15! Returned today to what will likely be his grade in the long run and back over 1m4f he should get the conditions to showcase his ability to best effect.

As is customary for a Johnston runner he will likely be positioned either towards the front or just on the heels of the leaders to be delivered with his chance inside the final furlong. Royal Skies's trading record is fantastic being available at the prices required in every one of his last 10 races. This is a pricewise race and Mr Segal has gone with the same selection as me today. At 8.30am Coral will be going 8/1 about our horse, Paddy Power will go 7/1 at the same time. I'll record a back price of 9.0 (8/1) for the punters 8.0 (7/1) for the traders as restrictions may prevent sufficient stakes being placed at just one bookmaker.

If you back Royal Skies for 2 points at 8.0 (prices revert to 8.0 & 9.0 with Paddy Power & Coral at 8.30am). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.1 or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.5 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 1st race (13.55) Nicky Henderson has one of the fancied runners Lieutenant Miller and this gelding is one who I’m sure is going to land one of these big stayers handicaps at a major meeting sometime soon. He is remarkably consistent which has meant he’s been available at trading prices in 9 of his last 10 race. As he’s risen through the flat ranks his performances have remained high as he demonstrated with a placed effort in the Ascot Stakes.

He will likely be covered up on the rail through the early part and then make smooth headway through the latter part of the race. His experience at this level should start to tell & it shouldn’t be too long before he can make the step up & get his head in front.

Lieutenant Miller can be backed at 8.0 at the books (hills & boyles at 8.30am). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.9, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck

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Away from Goodwood today there could be some value in the 17.00 at Yarmouth with the front running gelding Love You Louis. This blog has turned to him many times in the past & he's been available to trade on in each of his last 6 races. He's been running well within this grade recently & although he faded last last time out at Leicester he may not have been racing on the right part of the track.

He tends to go from the front and maintains a high cruising speed for as long as possible, as he steadily drops down the weights the chances of him getting home increase and I'm sure there is at least one win in this horse this season.

However it shakes out in this small field I'm expecting him to trade much shorter than the double figure price he is right now.

Love You Louis can be backed now at 10.0 at the books (bet365). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 7.2, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 6.4 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In today's paper Tom Segal has made some good points about backing front runners at Goodwood because they can get on with things while the large fields trip over each other in behind around the bend. In the 1st race (13.55) one who I think is sure to push very hard early on to gain a prominent position is the Robert Eddery, Vasily. This horse appears to have just one way of going & that is from the front. This style has meant he's been available to trade on in 8 of his last 10 races including all of his last 5. He's been performing well within this grade all season & at a very big price I'm expecting another solid run.

The draw isn't perfect in stall 12 but I still think he has the early speed to get the position he craves. This should be enough to bring the trade. If he's able to slip the field on the home straight then he could just be very difficult to peg back.

Vasily can be backed now for 2 points at 21.0 at the books (various refunds available if 2nd). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 50.0, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 13.0 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 16.50 at Goodwood a familiar horse re-appears after I put up Ascripton earlier in the month only for him to be made a non-runner. Connections have now waited for Glorious Goodwood and he has a great draw against the favored rail in stall 1. Ascription has been available to trade on in 7 of his last 8 races and has often arrived at the furlong pole going much the best of all his rivals. With the rail to help and the assistance of William Buick if he can hold it all together for a little longer then he may just get home.

Ascription can be backed now for 2 points at 13.0 at the books. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 9.4, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 8.2 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck

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Much has been made of the Mark Johnston yard being in outstanding form however it has to be noted that William Haggas's horses are also absolutely flying right now with 7 winners from his last 20 runners. Even M Johnston can't boast that sort of strike rate!

In the 16.05 at Pontefract Haggas's entry is Arsaadi and this filly has been transformed by the fitting of blinkers in her last two outings. She ran in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot & was given no chance by the market sent off at a BSP of 89.0, she defied this to finish 3rd behind Belgian Bill. She followed this up last time out with a good 2nd to Galician at Newbury. Galician has firmly franked this form yesterday by winning a handicap worth £100,000.

She likes to go from the front & with the blinkers applied again she has every chance of upholding her form to run a big race. At the very least I'm expecting her to trade much shorter in running.

Of the others the main danger for me is Gabrial, however he's a horse with some serious quirks & I'd be wanting a double figure price before getting involved.

Arsadi can be backed now for 2 points at 7.0 at the books (stan james). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.1, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.5 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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