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timbuctooth
04 Mar 24 19:30
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Date Joined: 11 Jun 12
| Topic/replies: 22,021 | Blogger: timbuctooth's blog
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Report J.O.TOBIN. March 22, 2024 9:51 AM GMT
I laid the 400 and 500 on Bradley after seeing the sneak peak but there was nothing after that.
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 9:55 AM GMT
the louie 1.01 was a fat finger imo

daivd leaving 4th or 3rd would not shock me whatsoever

colson had a very good 1st week being very vulnerable, he's been nothing but nice all the way through, levi called him evil. an anagram of his own name lol appears he's got decent support coming into the final. won't win for me but does affect david's voting power regarding sympathy votes. even fern eats into the two boys vote being last woman and also acting vulnerable.

louie is the only one truly fishing in his own pond i think
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 9:56 AM GMT
after vote freeze 6pm wednesday, i watched market all night..nothing indicated the vote was known. hence why i think market is clean
Report Henry VIII March 22, 2024 10:04 AM GMT
nobody thinks knowledge of the vote is involved
Report SuperSniper March 22, 2024 10:20 AM GMT
Maybe not the vote although it was pretty evident Bradley was gone as I even posted it at 10pm Wednesday

It’s the 24 hours before the audience has been filled in with the events that’s concerning, Nikita drifting from evens out to 17s with no rhyme or reason as a viewer, then it all makes sense on the next episode
Report Henry VIII March 22, 2024 10:26 AM GMT
yes, edit knowledge, not vote knowledge. i think we can move on now.
Report SuperSniper March 22, 2024 10:34 AM GMT
That’s exactly what an insider would say…
Report Henry VIII March 22, 2024 10:48 AM GMT
so i'm an insider? no, i'm just a clueless cnt.
Report Henry VIII March 22, 2024 10:51 AM GMT
there is extreme evidence for the first and no evidence for the latter. just try to use logic, i know it's hard.
Report SuperSniper March 22, 2024 10:53 AM GMT
Lol, has anyone on here has actually got David backed? Or are we all on this sinking ship together
Report timbuctooth March 22, 2024 5:13 PM GMT
When it comes to betting or, more specifically, winning long term at betting, there's only ever one word that matters; value, VALUE, VALUE!!! So, is David value? Well, let's examine the evidence, shall we?

Pros
Depending on how much you enjoy the same old 'coming out' stories that we've heard umpteen times before, you might say he's had a couple of good shows, at just the right time
He hasn't been the pain first feared when he got out of the car on opening night
The market thinks he wins, fuelled by distinctly dodgy looking moves


Cons
Has he won it in the house? No, Louis has
Has he the backstory? No, Nikita has
Is he a star of Britain's favourite soap? No, Colson is
Is he a decades long stalwart of UK popular culture? No, Fern is
Those market moves started just as the VTW opened, so were based on upcoming edits. We've now seen those shows, any insider info has become worthless, we have no knowledge or even suspicion of any current inside action regarding the only thing that matters, the voting.

David is now 1.65, meaning if this event was run many times, and you backed him at 1.65 each time, even him winning two out of every three runnings would leave you losing.

All in all, the evidence is overwhelming; he's rank bad value. As such, every long term winner should have him (max!) red. Doesn't mean he won't win, but this is Specials, in which backing at 1.65 is a quick route to the poorhouse
Report timbuctooth March 22, 2024 5:18 PM GMT
Sorry, got a bit wrong; it should read that him winning three out of every five would still see you losing
Report SuperSniper March 22, 2024 6:20 PM GMT
So you didn’t spot the value in David when he was 20+ personally I didn’t which is annoying as I could’ve covered myself for less than tenner at that point but I considered Fern a bigger threat, I thought I was relatively safe with £500 green on both Louis and Nikita with them being fav and second fav with only days left, still think it could be anyone’s but David does seem to have some support on Twitter that wasn’t obvious before
Report GeorgeBrush March 22, 2024 6:27 PM GMT
Market still looking clean to me. Even the useless colson getting backed
Report Henry VIII March 22, 2024 7:10 PM GMT
I think Colson, useless though he is, is most likely T3, in which case could be a decent trade especially if the upset causes some panic buying.
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 7:27 PM GMT
fern drift, smelly ? y/n ?
Report Henry VIII March 22, 2024 7:31 PM GMT
no, she's first out. even my goldfish knows that.
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 7:38 PM GMT
Laugh
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 7:39 PM GMT
dave out in 4th then Devil
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 7:45 PM GMT
see the gobsh1te loud mouth is annoying as fook in the sneak peak, talk about rammed down our throats all week
Report GeorgeBrush March 22, 2024 8:15 PM GMT
Fern is never smelly, apart from of roses
Report J.O.TOBIN. March 22, 2024 8:34 PM GMT
A message I’ve sent to betfair to request an investigation into events. Hopefully those who have taken advantage of insider information will have their bets voided at the very least betfair have been made aware of the potential insider trading.

A couple of things if I may. in the info blurb on Celebrity Big Brother it gives  a start time of 1st Apri;. The final does in fact start tonight at 9.00pm, so needs to be turned in play at that time.                                                       
   Secondly I along with many others have been concerned about the betting activity on this event. William Hills (who sponsor the event) have consistently offered odds out of line with the market. It is my belief that William Hills are aware of production intent.                     I do realise that is outside your control, however may I request that you have a cursory inspection of the market predominantly into betting activity on David Potts, from new accounts with links to ITV or William Hills also lays of Louis walsh have caused some concern. Thanks please feel free to contact me should you require any further info
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 8:40 PM GMT
yeah hills have been way ahead all series, i have oddschecker open 24/7..dodgy feckers

on a side note ive had some colson 25's, good value for h2h for me
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 8:42 PM GMT
hills 15/2 colson has to be a good sign LaughLaugh
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 8:46 PM GMT
does anyone know the last time a fav got beat in specials main events ?
Report timbuctooth March 22, 2024 8:55 PM GMT
Yes; last week's DWTS Ireland saw the outsider of four romp it
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 8:57 PM GMT
wow a clean event, stone the crows
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 9:03 PM GMT
holy feck 5 votes each eviction
whoever gets winner nom from evictee gonna do well
Report timbuctooth March 22, 2024 9:05 PM GMT
Just to be technical, series long he was the outsider of the four finalists, don't know for sure but probably matched around 80 or 90. Not entirely sure he was the rag on final night, or whether he'd passed the draggie into third fav status, about 8.0-10.0, with the two favs at about 6/4 or 2/1
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 9:06 PM GMT
ok tim thanks
Report TheBorg March 22, 2024 9:07 PM GMT
We had weeks of voting in DOI with Adele fav and came last in the final
Report AKsooted March 22, 2024 9:07 PM GMT
Fern with the last woman standing comment again. FFS.
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 9:08 PM GMT
louie surely gonna go clear

fern out more split votes for lads

louie won't get a better chance to win, extra votes gotta help
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 9:09 PM GMT
cheers borg
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 9:10 PM GMT
stop shouting ffs
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 9:12 PM GMT
does he ever shut up Angry
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 9:15 PM GMT
crowd doing dave a massive favour, fern better say anyone but dave
Report TheBorg March 22, 2024 9:21 PM GMT
When us the next departure,  im not watching
Report bearcub March 22, 2024 9:21 PM GMT
vote froze
Report Henry VIII March 22, 2024 9:23 PM GMT
fern is a nice lass
Report Henry VIII March 22, 2024 9:24 PM GMT
very well put jot
Report timbuctooth March 22, 2024 9:27 PM GMT
Linked to the David edit market moves or not, someone was very sure Fern would be first out, and David's continued shortening lends further suspicion
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 9:29 PM GMT
Nik out
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 9:30 PM GMT
lol
Report timbuctooth March 22, 2024 9:31 PM GMT
Suspicions allayed somewhat, maybe David doesn't win!
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 9:31 PM GMT
interesting, c'mon colson lad
Report GeorgeBrush March 22, 2024 9:31 PM GMT
Bl.army
Report GeorgeBrush March 22, 2024 9:32 PM GMT
Voting splitting works!   But not in the intended way :(
Report Henry VIII March 22, 2024 9:32 PM GMT
I think, out of the T5 Fern's position was the clearest.
Report TheBorg March 22, 2024 9:33 PM GMT
Colson matched in single figures ExcitedGrin
Report Henry VIII March 22, 2024 9:34 PM GMT
to think before pimping david for several edits and crucifying louis (especially sinitta) all markers were for louis
Report bearcub March 22, 2024 9:38 PM GMT
Hills

Dave 2/5
nik 3/2
Cols 7/2


Few % seperating top2
Report bearcub March 22, 2024 9:39 PM GMT
2.5 m votes
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 9:40 PM GMT
i think colson is top2
Report bearcub March 22, 2024 9:40 PM GMT
#Nik 5/2
Report GeorgeBrush March 22, 2024 9:42 PM GMT
Market still looks pretty clean if it's correct that's close
Report GeorgeBrush March 22, 2024 9:43 PM GMT
2.5m  ain't many.  I've already voted 15 times lol
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 9:46 PM GMT
ffs
Report GeorgeBrush March 22, 2024 9:47 PM GMT
Colson irrigated
Report bearcub March 22, 2024 9:48 PM GMT
Hills

Dave 1/2
Nik 6/4
Report GeorgeBrush March 22, 2024 9:49 PM GMT
No worries, we'll get our money back later ;-)
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 9:50 PM GMT
strictly fans all in
Report bearcub March 22, 2024 9:54 PM GMT
incredibly close

3.5 m votes
Report GeorgeBrush March 22, 2024 9:56 PM GMT

Mar 22, 2024 -- 9:34PM, J.O.TOBIN. wrote:


A message I’ve sent to betfair to request an investigation into events. Hopefully those who have taken advantage of insider information will have their bets voided at the very least betfair have been made aware of the potential insider trading.A couple of things if I may. in the info blurb on Celebrity Big Brother it gives

Report GeorgeBrush March 22, 2024 9:57 PM GMT
Nah, louis would have been hammered out to fern prices
Report Henry VIII March 22, 2024 10:01 PM GMT
That would be more risky for them than hammering David's price in. Which they did.
Report Henry VIII March 22, 2024 10:01 PM GMT
Before the edits came out.
Report bearcub March 22, 2024 10:02 PM GMT
Shocked
Report timbuctooth March 22, 2024 10:04 PM GMT
Oh well, a losing series but no regrets, well done winners
Report GeorgeBrush March 22, 2024 10:04 PM GMT
Well done dave backers. I was one once lol
Report armagnac March 22, 2024 10:05 PM GMT
its amazing the close ones always go the favs way
Report GeorgeBrush March 22, 2024 10:06 PM GMT
Mega thin market though henry.  Proves nowt imho
Report SuperSniper March 22, 2024 10:06 PM GMT
David was behind Fern in polls 4 days ago :/  maybe he is gonna be the next L&L host or they got a role for the big sweaty dosser
Report Henry VIII March 22, 2024 10:08 PM GMT
lol i don't think he's got the brains for host. he will be a guest though, endlessly.
Report GeorgeBrush March 22, 2024 10:13 PM GMT
Insiders (if ever there are any) don't care about risk of doing anything in the market
Report Henry VIII March 22, 2024 10:20 PM GMT
do you really think that his price coming right in before the great edits and Hill's prices were just a genius guess?
Report SuperSniper March 22, 2024 10:26 PM GMT
There will always be insiders until AI completely takes over, until then it’s someone’s job to edit all those clips together and make sure the voting numbers are correct, think of tasks and twists etc. it’s probably a team of 30 who all have family and friends wanting the gossip from the BB House, even AJ probably told her friends Bradley got evicted

Insiders are definitely a thing, it’s if they get involved with betting it’s a problem
Report GeorgeBrush March 22, 2024 10:35 PM GMT
People said the same about Jordan ...  He just had an amazing final week. I was one of those backing and people said he was too short

Similar price at the end.
Report Junction25 March 22, 2024 10:39 PM GMT
insider trading ? Really ?  So at 9pm  David was 1.5 Louis 3.55 Nikita 9.6 COLSON 18.5 and fern 220  the surprise was Louis 4th out and took market by surprise
Report GeorgeBrush March 22, 2024 10:43 PM GMT
Yep exactly. Their argument is that david shortening all week before great edits.  Nothing new there really, and it's nothing to do with voting knowledge
Report Henry VIII March 22, 2024 10:43 PM GMT
nobody's saying the vote was known by anybody
Report Henry VIII March 22, 2024 10:44 PM GMT
anyway i've said all this on this thread several times already. let's talk about david's legs.
Report Junction25 March 22, 2024 10:45 PM GMT
Clean as a whistle !! All producer driven to get the result they wanted
Report Henry VIII March 22, 2024 10:47 PM GMT
so i wonder if this will effect future viewer numbers - a winner nobody's heard of instead of louis walsh (who they originally wanted - red snake).
Report GeorgeBrush March 22, 2024 10:47 PM GMT
If we are moaning about prods getting the desired result we need to wind this back 20 years to cowell, len, jungle.  It ain't news
Report Henry VIII March 22, 2024 10:50 PM GMT
jordan north always gets everything wrong, why have him
Report Junction25 March 22, 2024 10:50 PM GMT
HappyNot moaning -happy collecting my winnings !!
Report GeorgeBrush March 22, 2024 11:00 PM GMT
Thanks for turning up in time to tell us that
Report bearcub March 22, 2024 11:04 PM GMT
lol
Report GeorgeBrush March 23, 2024 7:07 AM GMT
One thing to note is how badly all the oldsters did.

Gary and Levi didn't touch the sides.  Fern and Louis miles off despite being absolutely central and having far better plot lines than the t3
Report GeorgeBrush March 23, 2024 7:09 AM GMT
More lessons, the panto villian is no longer favoured in the app, maybe 'nice' wins again.
Report armagnac March 23, 2024 8:31 AM GMT
i think there was an echo of same old story about being bullied at school again, even i thought same..heard it a thousand times, surely public fed up of same old same old, but in hindsight how many kids have killed themselves in recent years and since the advent of mobile phones and apps like snapchat, whatsapp appearing in recent times. Where kids video the bullying and fights, then post it. Even my best friend, his 12 year old girl was being targeted in and out of school. waiting for her between home and school. It got to the point of home schooling and eventually being moved to another school. The head, teachers couldn't or didn't want to do anything about it, just saying 'it happens'. I think this has become a major problem throughout the country, we had bullying in our day but i think it has exploded in recent times, so David's edit really hit a nerve. Many of these stories have made headlines as well, the last few years. Every time a kid kills themselves.
Also the his Dad cuddling him, showing love over being gay. would of been far less likely 10/20 years ago.

The vote was close, he would of never won without sharing those two powerful things that happened to him.
Report bearcub March 23, 2024 8:33 AM GMT
Plus he had nice legs
Report armagnac March 23, 2024 8:39 AM GMT
If anything it proves on tuesday night as the VTW started i think David would of been well behind Nik, even behind Colson and probably sitting 3rd.
we always dissect and try and learn after each series but in reality, the bullying story line has always been a very strong one over the years. So nothing to really learn here, the market was clean.
Report armagnac March 23, 2024 8:39 AM GMT
LaughLove bear
Report armagnac March 23, 2024 8:42 AM GMT
paddy need to pull there finger out and settle the result ffs
Report GeorgeBrush March 23, 2024 1:39 PM GMT
Learn to trust that 90% of the time the prods will get a desirable result, even if the winner seems trailing in the pack with a week to go.  2/2 for itv so far
Report SuperSniper March 23, 2024 3:22 PM GMT
In hindsight it all adds up, Levi said David was controlling everything in there and eating everything, yet we seen nothing but positive edits throughout, L&L defending him all the way through and he was given 2 secret tasks

Anyone know when the next civ one supposed to start, hope it’s summertime
Report GeorgeBrush March 23, 2024 4:11 PM GMT
Be a while before the food budget recovers enough after David then, probably 2028

I missed Louis, interesting that we finally heard some negativity about dave
Report GeorgeBrush March 23, 2024 4:11 PM GMT
Sorry, levi, yeah i didn't bother listening to him
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