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armagnac
03 Nov 22 11:18
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 56,675 | Blogger: armagnac's blog
Hanc0ck money on the assumption he gets all the early trials i suppose, enjoy the trade coz all i see is a ton of terrible publicity during his stint. he's gonna face the wrath of thousands upon thousands of people who wasn't allowed too see their loved ones while they lay dying.
tindall seems fun though
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Report armagnac November 27, 2022 9:02 PM GMT

Nov 27, 2022 -- 3:00PM, Ramruma wrote:


Re fruit machines: this 15-minute video purporting to explain how they work went up on Youtube yesterday.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EomDfEAIcC0


interesting, i'll watch that later or in morning. Let you know

Report armagnac November 27, 2022 9:09 PM GMT
Mike boosting Matt's vote again
Report charliebigpotatoes November 27, 2022 9:11 PM GMT
Hi all, are there any polls about on the final?
Report timbuctooth November 27, 2022 9:13 PM GMT
Yes; they all say Jill wins
Matt missing a huge trick by not breaking down in tears, thanking TGBP for forgiving him, he knows what an error it was, how sorry he is
Report armagnac November 27, 2022 9:17 PM GMT
yes tim, annoying
Report armagnac November 27, 2022 9:17 PM GMT
Tears was landslide
Report Lifter November 27, 2022 9:18 PM GMT
Yeah, he's got more confident, instead of being more vulnerable. Went to his head, not his heart.
Report charliebigpotatoes November 27, 2022 9:18 PM GMT
Thanks Tim. Hancock second in these poll also?
Report timbuctooth November 27, 2022 9:20 PM GMT
Yes, but generally closer to Owen than he is to Jill
Report timbuctooth November 27, 2022 9:22 PM GMT
https://www.thesun.ie/tv/9796700/celeb-poll-runner-up-surprise/
Report charliebigpotatoes November 27, 2022 9:23 PM GMT
Cheers. Frankly, it’s disappointing to see the prick in the final 3, but that’s what happens when the public made him the trial star.
Report charliebigpotatoes November 27, 2022 9:26 PM GMT
That’s tighter than expected. I would imagine that when down to a final 2 Jill pushes in front due to being a popular alternative and anti Matt voting
Report Lifter November 27, 2022 9:27 PM GMT
Money really coming for Jill now
Report duffy November 27, 2022 9:30 PM GMT
armagnac 27 Nov 22 15:44 
Jim

Im sh1t scared of flying, even the tea cups spin me out...but it would be a great challenge, my speciality is games where you go around a board though, most of the games over there are boring games with lots of win lines. Pretty much what they have online and in bookies.
Its pubs that have the games i can beat, where skill is involved. The other games are pretty much unbeatable, completely random.
Thats actually the definition of fruit machines, they come under two categories.

1) Random - pretty much what it says, you can win jackpot on one press or it might take a thousand presses.

2) compensated - which is percentage driven, meaning once it hits tipping point it has to payout, i can get the percentage quicker than the average person by knowing the game inside out.


Army...

There is a great podcast I listen to called RISK OF RUIN all full of stories in the states that down the years have travelled the country working and hustling the slots, card counting etc, they explain through their stories the ups and downs of their existence and the angles they played...great characters great pod.

https://player.fm/series/2785233
Report armagnac November 27, 2022 9:33 PM GMT
thanks Duffy, looks good
Report SuperSniper November 27, 2022 9:36 PM GMT
Has the favourites odds ever been this low with 3 left? 1.13 seems very low
Report J.O.TOBIN. November 27, 2022 9:37 PM GMT
Matts trial not giving him the chance for banter, think Owen had the best of it TBH
Report Lifter November 27, 2022 9:38 PM GMT
Great trial for Owen yes
Report duffy November 27, 2022 9:38 PM GMT
Toad is thinking, is it over, can you get rid of him nowLaugh
Report Lifter November 27, 2022 9:38 PM GMT

Nov 27, 2022 -- 3:36PM, SuperSniper wrote:


Has the favourites odds ever been this low with 3 left? 1.13 seems very low


Think Andy was around 1.1 and he got beat. Don't know the exact price though

Report Cider November 27, 2022 9:40 PM GMT
Before the leak, out to something like 1.33 before cut off. Took about 4 minutes iirc.
Report Cider November 27, 2022 9:43 PM GMT
What price would you take if you knew Jill was ahead before the reset?
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 27, 2022 9:44 PM GMT
ffs BF asleep
Report Lifter November 27, 2022 9:44 PM GMT

Nov 27, 2022 -- 3:43PM, Cider wrote:


What price would you take if you knew Jill was ahead before the reset?


1.02

Report J.O.TOBIN. November 27, 2022 9:45 PM GMT
Vote lines closed everyone should cancel unmatched bets as betfair are unlikely to suspend.
Report timbuctooth November 27, 2022 9:50 PM GMT
I think Toff went very short, perhaps below 1.1
Report Lifter November 27, 2022 9:50 PM GMT
wow
Report SlippyBlue November 27, 2022 9:52 PM GMT
Market got that wrong.
Report armagnac November 27, 2022 9:52 PM GMT
recount
Report Lifter November 27, 2022 9:53 PM GMT
Well, I can turn it off now
Report armagnac November 27, 2022 9:54 PM GMT
lol
Report SlippyBlue November 27, 2022 9:54 PM GMT
As if...!
Report SuperSniper November 27, 2022 9:55 PM GMT
Could Owen really win now? I Just don’t know!!
Report timbuctooth November 27, 2022 9:56 PM GMT
Taken from horse`s excellent `Pricewatch` thread, which is just a few threads down the forum front page from this one

ahorsewithnoname 11 Dec 17 09:57 
Lowest & Highest matched for Georgia Toffolo   (highs matched pre launch show)
1.02    £484
1.03    £38,963
1.04    £57,726
1.05    £27,981
1.06    £28,572
1.07    £38,484
1.08    £49,545
1.09    £53,067
1.10    £18,046
Report armagnac November 27, 2022 9:56 PM GMT
all on the girlie vote now
Report Lifter November 27, 2022 9:59 PM GMT
Now a h2h. I didn't anticipate this, but I guess Jill still wins. Although Owen would be a better winner IMO.
Report J.O.TOBIN. November 27, 2022 10:00 PM GMT
Owen has more chance of beating Jill than Matt had so market about right and dare I say clean
Report bearcub November 27, 2022 10:02 PM GMT
Cleanest IAC  market ever Shocked
Report armagnac November 27, 2022 10:03 PM GMT
C'mon Owen
Report SuperSniper November 27, 2022 10:06 PM GMT
Jill saving her sweet Caroline track for taxi to the hotel it seems!!!!
Report armagnac November 27, 2022 10:07 PM GMT
Laugh
Report loui November 27, 2022 10:07 PM GMT
Markets had nearly every elimination wrong, something rotten about, a loaded dice
Report SlippyBlue November 27, 2022 10:08 PM GMT
Blimey, either is fine but Jill a bit better.
Report armagnac November 27, 2022 10:08 PM GMT
Looks like the WOKE will get there way, it was all there to see CryCryCryCry
Report armagnac November 27, 2022 10:08 PM GMT
yeah hope it gets this fecker wrong
Report armagnac November 27, 2022 10:10 PM GMT
Ive never won sod all on this show, BB needs to hurry up
Report bearcub November 27, 2022 10:12 PM GMT
You've never won on BB either Cry
Report armagnac November 27, 2022 10:12 PM GMT
it was probably
jill 50%
owen 26%
matt 24%
Report armagnac November 27, 2022 10:12 PM GMT
Devil
Report armagnac November 27, 2022 10:12 PM GMT
i had some decent wins and losers tbf but i had a winner lol
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 27, 2022 10:15 PM GMT
market moves because bookies going much bigger price on Jill.  Hills 1/3 Fred 1/4
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 27, 2022 10:16 PM GMT
prolly an algorithm copying each other
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 27, 2022 10:16 PM GMT
can still get 2/7 at Hills
Report Lifter November 27, 2022 10:17 PM GMT
No need to overthink Celeb, Army. I think less happens in the Jungle, so you can usually spot who will do well beforehand, compared to BB, which is a rollercoaster. Top 2 is the top I highlighted in the first post. Should have just backed and walked away.
Report armagnac November 27, 2022 10:19 PM GMT
yeah would of saved a 1000 posts
Report Lifter November 27, 2022 10:20 PM GMT
Laugh
Report Lifter November 27, 2022 10:20 PM GMT
Next is Eurovision for me, so see you in 4 months for more ramping pre-show
Report timbuctooth November 27, 2022 10:21 PM GMT
Owen`s highlights too late to garner many votes, advantage TCO
Report armagnac November 27, 2022 10:21 PM GMT
deffo lifter
Report Cider November 27, 2022 10:26 PM GMT
who was trying to back chris moyles Grin
Report Cider November 27, 2022 10:27 PM GMT
saw 1.14 offer pop up, someone beat me to it :(
Report armagnac November 27, 2022 10:34 PM GMT
costly finger slip
Report Libertine93 November 27, 2022 10:34 PM GMT
Decent green but very undeserving winner IMO
Report armagnac November 27, 2022 10:34 PM GMT
well done prods, i mean winners
Report timbuctooth November 27, 2022 10:35 PM GMT
£391 matched at 1.14!
Report Libertine93 November 27, 2022 10:37 PM GMT
Would have been a very different show if Olivia hadn’t pulled a sick note
Report SuperSniper November 27, 2022 10:41 PM GMT
Yep I agree, Olivia would be top 3 potential and definitely top female.......now onto SPOTY where another odds on lioness is gonna fleece me lol
Report SlippyBlue November 27, 2022 10:45 PM GMT
For my first " jungle" experience, I actually enjoyed it. It was a refreshing change from my usual routine which largely is horse racing, NFL and rugby.

Not only that but I had a good stable book for the majority of the time, obviously with a few tweaks here and there but ended up quite nicely so as a newbie I'm glad I wasn't too far off the mark.

Would I do this again? I highly doubt it but it was a fun ride while it lasted and good to chat with folks on here who I didn't know previously.

Best of luck one and all.

Happy
Report LendUsAFiver November 27, 2022 10:57 PM GMT
Panicked and levelled Owen at the end there. On the Jungle Club stream Dec said it was close in the end, but he probably always says that. I think owen got a good late run there but couldn't undue matt haters voting jill
Report LendUsAFiver November 27, 2022 11:00 PM GMT

Nov 27, 2022 -- 4:34PM, Libertine93 wrote:


Decent green but very undeserving winner IMO


agree, she was definitely marmite, she won based on the anti-matt vote

Report GeorgeBrush November 27, 2022 11:46 PM GMT
Has henry admitted to backing moyles at 1.14 yet? :)

Evening everyone.   Jill went to my school, so obviously she'd win!
Report timbuctooth November 27, 2022 11:48 PM GMT
GB!!! Wow, been a long time, welcome back, hope all is good
Report GeorgeBrush November 28, 2022 12:05 AM GMT
All good tim, just had to finish constant Betfairing due to the lack of liquidity, pc and my business demanding constant attention.  No xf any more and can't stand scd nowadays.  This is about the only show I can bring myself to watch. Figgy tells me what to back in Eurovision lol.
Report armagnac November 28, 2022 12:14 AM GMT
It will take another 10 mins before tim gets that post brushy, welcome back Grin
Report GeorgeBrush November 28, 2022 8:08 AM GMT
Hi army. Who were you on?  I went down an Owen rabbit hole in week 2 but fortunately kept Jill onside.  He had about 10 mins coverage in the last week, surely the prods threw their weight behind Jill to ensure the **** didn't win
Report loui November 28, 2022 10:02 AM GMT
She's too genuinely nice to be marmite, won cos people liked her
Report Libertine93 November 28, 2022 10:25 AM GMT
Here's the full result of the public vote.
Vote for third place:
Jill - 47.29%
Owen - 30.99%
Matt - 21.72%

Queen of the Jungle, final vote:
Jill - 57.66%
Owen - 42.34%

A lot closer than the market would have you believe.
Report armagnac November 28, 2022 10:43 AM GMT

Nov 28, 2022 -- 2:08AM, GeorgeBrush wrote:


Hi army. Who were you on?

Report armagnac November 28, 2022 10:50 AM GMT
balls

Was saying i caught out in week 2 as well in Owen's good run of edits, Jill went 3.5 and should of covered then but was to involved in the Hancock hype. Olivia going made sure Jill got to the final, otherwise Britain would of gone to hell according to some. God forbid no women in the final, was hoping for the bigger drift on her but it never came. I seen the danger but never acted on it.
Good fun here though and i'd do it all again, i'd probably win if we could do it again lol
Report armagnac November 28, 2022 10:54 AM GMT
FB made you or me think Hancock was getting the 47% and Jill the 31%, those numbers were actually bang on but people in wrong place lol
Owen's voiced was drowned out on SM by the Hancock bluster
Report Cider November 28, 2022 12:47 PM GMT
Owen won the h2h. Almost certain that the alleged b2 at the last five was indeed fake.
Report armagnac November 28, 2022 1:06 PM GMT

Nov 27, 2022 -- 3:00PM, Ramruma wrote:


Re fruit machines: this 15-minute video purporting to explain how they work went up on Youtube yesterday.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EomDfEAIcC0


Sounds like the travel reservations and ships in international waters have there own rules, bit like our fairgrounds by the sounds of it lol and my experience of them are the machines are set to the lowest percentage and your're lucky if they have a float inside. Tbh i've avoided them big time over the years as you can imagine even well run fairground arcades won't be very welcoming to the pro player.

'Each and every pull on a slot machine is a completely independent mathematical event, it is not influenced in anyway by what's happened up till that point'

Ok lets start here, and you have to remember UK and American machines are set up differently. Im not sure if there are any compensated machines outside of the UK, the definition above is how a 'random' machine is programmed.
A compensated fruit machine in the UK is definitely influenced by previous game play, so if its played very badly for a period of time, then that machines percentage will rise and rise over its setting of say 78% which most are set at around pubs. A lot higher for arcades btw, closer to 90%. If then i come along and play the machine correctly i will win very, very quickly.
A machine being played correctly will hover around its percentage of 78% and will be tougher to win out of.

As he points out nobody actually knows what the percentage is based on ?
So is it 78% of £100,000 or 78% of 100,000 plays or different amounts, this is the one thing that nobody has ever worked out or knows about. The machine returns 78% of what ?
As i have said and he mentions the percentage can go above and even below its setting of 78% depending how its been played. It goes above when generally played very badly for long periods. Its rare it goes under its percentage and it happens when you force a win that the machine didn't really want to give you. The machine would then go into a minus mode and play terribly until getting back to its standard 78%.

Random machines

Both here and America have random machines but i believe they are set up very differently.
He says they use a random number generator for each and every spin depending when you hit start.
So here on a random machine if you press start after 1 second from last spin it will land say cherry cherry melon, but say you press start after two seconds instead it will still give the cherry cherry melon. Im not certain on this, that's my guess but those rules would definitely apply to a compensated machine, as every spin is pre-determined.
What he's basically saying is the machines over there are not pre-determined and every spin no matter when you press start is determined by a random number generator. So if you hit start after 1 second you may get cherry cherry melon, but if you had waited 2 seconds the outcome would of been different, say melon cherry cherry. I actually never knew this so very interesting, I thought all machines every where were pre-dtermined and would give the same outcome no matter how long between each press.

It basically means random machines either here or there are virtually impossible to figure out a system to beat them, no matter how good you are on machines. Hence the reason pro's only target compensated machines. As far as i know and i know a lot of players from around the country, there has never been methods on random machines. Unless there is a serious flaw in the programming that is to allow you to manipulate it into paying all its money out, but that is a completely separate topic. Under normal playing conditions they are unbeatable. Hence the word 'random'

hope this helps

Report Ramruma November 28, 2022 1:12 PM GMT
Thanks, armagnac.
Report armagnac November 28, 2022 1:13 PM GMT
A random machine can payout 3 jackpots in 10 mins or you might not see a jackpot in 2 days of play, obviously the latter is impossible on a compensated machine.
Report armagnac November 28, 2022 1:14 PM GMT
No worries Ram Happy
Report GeorgeBrush November 28, 2022 8:34 PM GMT

Nov 28, 2022 -- 6:47AM, Cider wrote:


Owen won the h2h. Almost certain that the alleged b2 at the last five was indeed fake.


Can you say for certain Owen won the hth? No, depends how many votes were cast in both sections

Report GeorgeBrush November 28, 2022 9:01 PM GMT
If say the vote in the second section has half the votes  of the first it would put them roughly level in the hth
Report armagnac November 28, 2022 9:12 PM GMT
Gone to find an abacus
Report GeorgeBrush November 29, 2022 9:55 AM GMT
Lol army. You can make a nice graph.  The higher the vote in the second section, Jill still won it, then there's a crossover point at around 50% of the initial vote and below that Owen won.  Guesswork.  I'd probably guess at around 50% myself.  Who knows
Report Jim Duncan November 29, 2022 9:57 AM GMT

Nov 27, 2022 -- 6:05PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:


All good tim, just had to finish constant Betfairing due to the lack of liquidity, pc and my business demanding constant attention.

Report Jim Duncan November 29, 2022 9:57 AM GMT
Love
Report GeorgeBrush November 29, 2022 9:57 AM GMT
There's certainly an argument that Jill voters were motivated by the ****, so their motivation was gone

If the prods had continued with the 2nd week form Owen would have won.  I guess he was just too grumpy with lack of food by week 3 so show him much
Report armagnac November 29, 2022 11:04 AM GMT
I guess a lot of non watching haters switched off the minute Hancock left, so not to see his interview and mission accomplished, probably didn't care who won..victory was won.
I guess the worry and big headache for prods was, Hancock was doing nothing to cast doubt and his support stayed strong, they had to focus on one who could definitely beat him, it does appear Owen was chosen but as you say Brushy, overcome with hunger he became a liability. They then had too discredit him so the voters would switch to Jill, so while shafting him Jill was getting all her one liners in and outfits made up for the game changing trial in the car.
Surely it was easier to get Jill over the line anyway, than bother with Owen...so maybe Jill wasn't 1st choice but could never risk the Hancock win so plan b was made.

All guesswork lol but makes sense to me
Report armagnac November 29, 2022 11:14 AM GMT
It does appear that getting a women to win IAC doesn't really take much doing, Gio non offensive, motherly, boring. Jill non offensive, semi entertaining, wasn't really boring coz she got involved in nearly every conversation she was seen in.
I suppose Dougie won being a bit dull but i do think generally the men really have to go some to get over the line in a series with a decent woman in.
I dunno probably talking rubbish, i like the psychology of big brother more.
Report Lifter November 29, 2022 3:08 PM GMT
Being "nice" is perhaps the number one trait to winning IAC. It's why putting a line through Boy George, Chris Moyles, etc... was so easy. I guess more women tend to have that trait. Someone can be super entertaining, but complain or bitch for 2 seconds, and their run is over.
Report GeorgeBrush November 29, 2022 9:29 PM GMT

Nov 29, 2022 -- 9:08AM, Lifter wrote:


Being "nice" is perhaps the number one trait to winning IAC. It's why putting a line through Boy George, Chris Moyles, etc... was so easy. I guess more women tend to have that trait. Someone can be super entertaining, but complain or bitch for 2 seconds, and their run is over.


You missed the Charlie brooks series then. :)

To be fair that was an outlier

Report GeorgeBrush November 29, 2022 9:31 PM GMT
I couldn't stand Patterson either
Report Lifter November 29, 2022 9:39 PM GMT
Ah yes, I was too young to be betting on that one. I actually saw her at Waterloo station the other week, ha.

I dislike most of the winners to be fair Laugh which makes it slightly harder
Report GeorgeBrush November 29, 2022 9:46 PM GMT
It was like imac had morphed into BB for a year. I think those series most people had switched off and a grumpy moany mare won. Didn't feel like that this year, the audience stuck with it to make sure **** didn't win
Report GeorgeBrush November 29, 2022 9:54 PM GMT
People say it's impossible to win these shows be acting for x number of weeks, well no, I'll point you in the direction of Vicki fecking Paterson
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