Odds crash is just people attempting to buy money. Seen so many tipsters say "its over" and "Finalnd drawing first half removes any chance of a win" etc...

How many tipsters were saying in 2016 "its game over" Russia wins during rehearsals even when Russia's odds were 1.49 at 8.00pm on the final of Saturday night and look what happened.

I believe that the Eurojury part of Eurojury results with Sweden having a 117 point lead over France has hugely influenced the odds to be the short on price it was before rehearsals. I do believe that if Sweden does win the jury on Saturday it will be a lot shorter than a 117 point lead as per Eurojury. There were 185 people who voted in the Eurojury of which there were 8 juries comprising of Andorra, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Hungary, Kazakstan, Luxembourg, Monaco and Macedonia who will not be voting in the final. There were 2 juries who did not vote which comprised of Czechia and one other i cannot recall from memory.

Out of those 185 people who voted. How many of those 185 acutally sat, watched and listened to all the 3 minutues to everyone of the videos of 37 songs on the Eurovision channel on Youtube? I doubt that all 185 people actually watched and listened to all 3 minutes of all the 37 songs. Some of these people may have only watched say a dozen or 2 dozen of the videos and voted from these without voting on the videos that they did not watch so those votes will be biased to the songs that they watched and not the songs they did not watch. Some of these people may have only clicked on a video and after say 10 or 20 seconds then exited from watching the full complete video so will not have watched the entire 3 minutes and will judge from those 10 or 20 so seconds and they may also have only done thise for say a dozen or 2 dozen songs and their votes will be biased to the songs that they watched and not the songs that they did not watch.

We do not know for certain if all the 185 people that voted in the Eurojury actually watched and listened to the complete 3 minutes of everyone of the 37 songs so the Eurojury part of the voting may be conjectured to certain countries due to the people on the jury only selecting thier desired countries to watch due to their own personal interests and not watching countires that did not fit into their interest. As such i do hold reservations that should Sweden be the jury winner on saturday night that their lead will be shorter then the 117 point lead that they had in the jury part of the Eurojury. This is just my thoughts.

If Sweden has to deffinately perform straight after an ad break then it should be noted that the last 3 contests i.e. 2019, 2021 and 2022 all had the ad breaks in the final between songs 8 and 9 and between songs 16 and 17 so based on this Sweden will perform in slot 9 if of course the ad breaks remain in the same position as the last 3 years. The producers could change the position of the ad breaks this year if they have need to do so.

Sweden now 1.48 (just shorter than 1.49 that Russia 2016 was on final night). People on Twitter saying its "Game over" and that it is now just a contest for second place and that Finland cannot win because they will need 150+ televotes to beat Sweden which they will not get. Where do people get the information from that Finland will need 150+ televotes more than Sweden in order to win. The Eurojury by chance? where Finland was at least 150+ point behind Sweden in the jury part of the Eurojury. When was the last time the jury part of Eurojury was actually correct to number of points etc. between countries?

Also, just because a country is charting in number 1 in say 5 countries and charting top 10 in a number of countries and charting in various positions in other countries does not make it the guarantee winner or a televote winner in my personal opinion. The positions on the charts does indicate whether a country will do well in the televote or not but if a song is charting at number 1 in say Switzerland does not guarantee that the song will get 12 points from the televote in Switzerland.

If people want to brush caution to one side and go rushing to the win market and back their entire life savings on a country to win just because other people are saying that its "game over" as that country has already won the contest before the final night then good luck to them if it pays off but you will not find me brushing caution to one side and rushing to the win market.

...and on the Sweden is a certainty question, there is no such thing. Personally I thought the song was pretty same old same old from them and Finland was a lot more fun, considering they are such a near neighbour, would it be so bad if they had to travel across the gulf for the 50th? Anyways feel a back of Finland at 11/2ish is how I will play it.

Agreed Trusty. I think Belgium can get the biggest audience reaction tonight and in a weak semi final can win it. Surprised at its price

I don't think people are saying the charts mean Sweden will win the televote. I think they're saying it means they are likely to get within 150 of Finland which is being seen as the likely lead, if not more, from the Jury votes which are predicted to have a big Loreen/Sweden let's have the 50th ABBA anniversary in Sweden bias. Of course it could be nonsense. If it isn't though then you are throwing money away at Finland circa Norway 2019 Italy 2015 etc which all topped tele votes but for carved up by the jury's !

You just don't tend to get winners of this trading at 50s after the performances are finalised. There's a first time for everything, I suppose.

That's why the caveat was good slots and an unbiased jury. Both seem unlikely. And that's just to get them in the game. With those though, then you've got two acts over priced I think

I'm not sure I agree with the consensus that it is impossible for Finland to get over 100 jury points due to his vocals. What about originality and the chance to chart? It is already charting, so it shouldn't get murdered. Besides, if juries are voting on vocals, then Loreen isn't in top 5, so so the hell knows.

There are a few that are way better vocally than Loreen but the juries will push Sweden because of the staging and performance rather than the vocals.

wrong thread

go Albania

That first half of the final is going to be a headache for the producers to do a running order with but we hopefully get a running within the next 2 to 3 hours.

Had an 8-way acca that came in at 1.7. Mug betting, but couldn't see how they wouldn't progress. The market always spot on.

Swedem back in to 1.49.

running order out

Sweden 9th
Finland 13th

10 Albania
11 Italy
12 Estonia
13 Finland
14 Czechia
15 Australia
16 Belgium
17 Armenia
18 Moldova
19 Ukraine

Shame for France and Spain that.

I thought they were going to be live outsiders but the draw and slots have really been two huge blows for them.