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Eurovision 2023 Winner now up on Betfair.
Eurovision 2023 Winner now up on Betfair.
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Replies: 425
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Televote looks lost now. Market can still crash the odds if she's doing w3ll in jury though, so won't abandon ship just yet
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Its a shame that France drew first half. I was hoping for a second half for the odds to come in but first half draw has resulted in price drifing out and Sweden's price back into odds on. I hope for Sweden to draw first half in final to make it more of a competition but knowing how things work out it will most likely draw second half and the market will go into meltdown with people rushing to place huge bets on a Sweden win.
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Spain and Italy also draw first half for the final. I'm guessing Germany will draw 2nd half in final.
If both Sweden and Finland both draw first half then someone will have a headache trying to do a running order placement. I just hope they do not do a Bulgaria 2017 when both portugal and Italy drew first half in the final and at that point there was no fave in the second half. So Bulgaria was the first name to picked out of the 10 finalists and so got to pick draw half first and surprise surprise they drew second half. I'm sure the Bulgaria fixing was deliberate for second half draw but that is just my opinion. |
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So Germany does get a second half draw, surprise surprise. So the organisers will no doubt be wanting one or both of Sweden and Finland to be in the second half of final to avoid the nightmare of working out a running order if one or both draw first half in final.
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I predict Italy 2-6, Spain around 9, and France 11-13. However, it gets confusing when Sweden and Finland are added. Where would Sweden go? Perhaps 13, with France in 11. If Sweden gets second half, then they'll get around 23, which should be enough televotes to win.
With Finland in a good slot in the semi, organizers may not give them a great slot. They could even get 1-5. |
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France now out 15 and Sweden now in to 1.95
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I topped up on France at 13s upon seeing the pictures. Should have waited, but let's see how the rehearsal video performs in one hour.
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Weird timing for the drift really. Perhaps the footage isn't great.
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It's just reaction to the draw still. I still personally think for complete neutrality and fairness they should be drawing actual slots opposed to halves. Massive difference between 1st and 13th.
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In 2015 Sweden got given 10th for Heroes and that was still enough to score enough to beat the highest ever tele vote for Italy.
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France bumped out to 30s earlier. Any reasons? Was 10s the other day and the draw might not be that bad if given a 10-13 slot which seems likely
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I engage with a few Eurovision backers on Twitter who trade big sizes. Seems that they don't believe La Zarra has a presence, and many have cashed out. I think a lot of big money is just abandoning ship.
Personally, I think the rehearsal was fine. They showed the most boring part, and I still think there's a huge moment towards the end of the song. |
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Sweden storming in LPM 1.84. Everything going out.
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Interesting how Finland come back in after every drift.
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A clip of France's bg moment - https://twitter.com/search?q=La%20Zarra&src=typeahead_click&f=live should get big jury points for that
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Here are the OFFICIAL press poll results for semi-final one of Eurovision 2023: link: https://escxtra.com/2023/05/08/2023-press-poll-results-semi-final-one/
1. Finland 18.24% 2. Sweden 17.23% 3. Israel 11.82% 4. Czechia 9.12% 5. Switzerland 8.78% 6. Portugal 5.74% 7. Serbia 5.07% 8. Netherlands 4.73% 9. Latvia 4.39% 10. Norway 4.05% 11. Moldova 3.72% 12. Malta 3.38% 13. Ireland 1.35% 14. Croatia 1.35% 15. Azerbaijan 1.01% |
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Sweden so close to Finland, that explains it !
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Sweden now 1.73, Finland out to 4.6
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Sweden now 1.70
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Now 1.69 for Sweden
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If the press poll results are representative of the final public vote then it is very understandable indeed, free money !
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Sweden now 1.66, Finland now 5.0
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No matter what Sweden did a great job of rope a doping by releasing footage a mile off what it will look like on the night (will be much closer to Melfest) and with the worst vocals Loreen has produced her whole life. Helped to stop, "this is a coronation" chat, to Sweden are in trouble and being swarmed by Finland and the others !
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I like looking at past stats and entries. A few interesting surprises. Spirit in the Sky topped the public vote despite only getting 200 points in the OGAE poll (half of three others)
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Excxtra twitter:
After the evening preview show of Semi-Final 1 we have collaborated with @ESCinsight, @EuroTripPodcast & @bet_eurovision to bring you a live audience poll of first impressions from the @MandSBankArena! link to tweet: https://twitter.com/escxtra/status/1655703486032408577 2048 people voted and the tyop 5 are as follows: 1. Finland 41.70% 1035 votes 2. Sweden 15.40% 381 votes 3. Norway 9.70% 241 votes 4. Israel 6.10% 151 votes 5. Malta 5.50% 136 votes You can see all votes for all 15 countries in the tweet. |
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That audience will be the press pass gang right? The ones with YouTube/tiktok accounts etc. Their opinion is so skewered compared to the one off casual viewer. They've collectively been gushing over Finland for months now! That sort of is a great case in point to my post just above yours at how out of kilter they are. Naturally they are going to match from time to time.
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A 100 person vote of fresh casual viewers for each 15 countries however would make for very interesting reading. I'm sure some very big hitters out there who are on the ball will do that or something similar.
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So that includes the fanatical general viewers. The disparity between their votes and the press poll is really hard to fathom I have to say. Sweden getting 1/3 of the votes of Finland
  wish we could see a normal poll of casual viewers from across Europe |
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https://escxtra.com/2023/05/06/introducing-the-eurovision-audience-poll/
https://eurovisionaudiencepoll.com/ |
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For references Norway got 78 and Netherlands 268 in the 2019 press poll despite the casual viewers on finals night voting for Norway as their winner.
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Yeah, I don't think the audience poll means much. For starters, everyone voting is watching a TV stream, not sitting in a booming crowd.
Still, even if it is accurate, we all knew Finland would win the public vote. |
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Can someone explain why Finland is fave to win the semis while Sweden is fave to win the final? Different voting criteria?
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The semi finals are just public votes SMB and Finland have prime slot too (the later you sing the better it is for your public votes due to recency bias). The final is half public votes and half jury votes and their singing order is yet to be determined. It's expected that Sweden are going to win the jury vote, eclipsing Finland's score, which could make Finland a dead duck before the public voting starts (as Sweden will still do relatively well in this). It's similar to Eurovision 2015 when Italy with Il Volo - Grande Amore got the highest public vote ever but was still always dead in the water as the jury was so heavily in the favour of Sweden (doubling Italy's jury votes) meaning Sweden just needed to do relatively well in the voting to win. The market is expecting this again. If the Euro Jury predictions are correct then the contest is truly a procession.
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The jury's were re introduced in 2009 and from then to 2014 they always aligned with the televote winner, but in 2015 and years since, there have been wild discrepancies between jurors and the public, which can make certain songs dead in the water. I personally think the competition is better without their influence.
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What sort of mugs are we in this country, we've been the pariahs of Europe for years, no better reflection of this than in this competition where the rest of Europe gets its annual chance to let us know the contempt with which they hold us in, however as soon as the comp needs to find a home for the next year we have a miraculous improvement in our fortunes....host it the next year, we should have told them to get fcuked, we'll be back to null points or thereabouts this year.
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It's because we always send utter garbage. Last year was the exception, and I'd be willing to bet we won't be bottom 5 this year, although the song isn't as good.
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If we had Adele or any popular artist you care to mentiony singing for us we would have been down the bottom IMO, it's political pure and simple and we are loathed....until we were needed that is.
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send Adele with a good song and you'd be 1.10 and rightfully so.
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of course ESC is several leagues beneath her and it would make no sense for her to lower herself to that level.
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