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Eurovision 2023 Winner now up on Betfair.
Eurovision 2023 Winner now up on Betfair.
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After today's 4 Euro Jury juries reveal Sweden has gained another 3 top 3's out of the 4 and has extended their lead on France. Sweden's price now LPM at 1.76 from 1.82 yesterday.
The current top 5 standing of the Euro Jury after 29 Eury Jury juries votes stands as follows: Country Top 3* 1 to 7** Sweden 17 6 France 10 11 Italy 8 9 Spain 7 4 Switzerland 6 7 |
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Current top 5 standing with regards to the minimum, average and maximum points possibly given in the Euro Jury stands as follows:
Country Top 3 1 to 7 Min Ave Max Sweden 17 6 142 194 246 France 10 11 91 144 197 Italy 8 9 73 116 159 United Kingdom 3 15 39 90 141 Spain 7 4 60 86 112 |
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Sweden is still tight lipped on the staging.
Latest article on Eurovoix website: Loreen Reveals Updates Regarding Eurovision Staging Plans link here: https://shorturl.at/clsZ5 "However, the singer has still not revealed if a hanging ceiling will be part of the stage show in Liverpool. “I cannot reveal whether there will be a ceiling or not, you will see that on Sunday” – Lorren" |
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My gamble bet on France pre-song release is actually in the green wow. Expect a big jury score, maybe even a win, but the public vote is still my big concern.
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The draws for the First and Second Half of the Grand Final will take place on TikTok before the live streamed Qualifiers Press Conferences hit YouTube.
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Sweden wins the jury part of the Euro Jury.
Current scores stands as follows, Sweden currently in lead with 117 points over France before public votes are added. Rank Country Minimum Average Maximum % of juries Actual Points 1 *Sweden 225 306 387 85.7 354 2 *France 130 212 294 76.2 237 3 *Italy 105 178 251 65.1 186 4 *United Kingdom 67 136 205 59.5 124 5 *Norway 72 134 196 54.8 117 6 *Spain 74 120 166 42.9 110 7 *Switzerland 52 98 144 40.5 109 8 *Belgium 58 100 142 38.1 104 9 *Cyprus 58 100 142 38.1 101 10 *Finland 58 100 142 38.1 93 11 *Austria 45 92 139 40.5 82 12 *Israel 32 84 136 42.9 78 13 *Netherlands 39 68 97 26.2 74 14 *Denmark 28 68 108 33.3 72 15 Czechia 25 56 87 25.6 60 16 *Ukraine 17 46 75 23.8 60 17 *Armenia 20 58 96 31 58 18 *Malta 25 56 87 26.2 56 19 *Ireland 28 68 108 33.3 48 20 *Australia 16 42 68 21.4 42 21 *Germany 20 36 52 14.3 36 22 *Greece 7 28 49 16.7 28 23 *Estonia 7 28 49 16.7 26 24 *Poland 13 30 47 14.3 26 25 Azerbaijan 20 36 52 14 25 26 *Serbia 12 26 40 11.9 25 27 *Portugal 12 26 40 11.9 25 28 *Slovenia 12 26 40 11.9 24 29 *Croatia 10 18 26 7.1 24 30 *Latvia 13 30 47 14.3 22 31 *Georgia 12 26 40 11.9 22 32 *Iceland 6 24 42 14.3 16 33 *Lithuania 4 16 28 9.5 13 34 *Moldova 2 8 14 4.8 8 35 *Albania 8 10 12 2.4 8 36 *Romania 1 4 7 2.4 1 37 *San Marino 0 0 0 0 0 |
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The market says Sweden is 1.3x to win the jury vote (75% chance). How can it be that confident? I am confused.
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The Euro Jury history barely is resembled in the actual jury winner
https://www.aussievision.net/post/euro-jury-how-accurate-have-the-results-been |
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Euro Jury
Australia – 214 Sweden – 153 Italy – 146 This was 2015. When Sweden famously got over double that with the jurors which is what scuppered Italy (highest televote ever at that stage) from winning. If Sweden get this monstrous sort of jury vote again then it has already won as would only really need to be top 4/5 in the televoting which is nailed on. |
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Eurojury had Portugal 5th that year ! Yet now as it has Sweden winning they are 1.3x in the jury vote !?
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The jury side of the vote has never been in question. This song is just massive jury bait. Plus, they did;t just win the jury vote, they scored the highest-ever amount of points.
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I'm not backing it though. But the 1.5 to win the jury was better odds than the 1.75 on the outright. The televote is where it is won and lost, although 150 points there could still win it for her.
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Which makes the 1.75 outright even better value no? As it's sub 1.1 to hit 150 points in the televote I would say.
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But that would be closer overall. 300 Jury and 150 Tele can be beaten by Finland 145/310 or France 250/205 (I got all basis covered)
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Euro Jury Top 5 (actual jury votes in brackets)
2023 Sweden 354 France 237 Italy 186 UK 124 Norway 117 2022 UK 287 (1st 283) Italy 240 (7th 158) Sweden 192 (2nd 258) Ukraine 182 (4th 192) Spain 173 (3rd 231) 2021 Malta 286 (3rd 208) Switzerland 257 (1st 267) France 219 (2nd 248) Israel 210 (12th 73) Iceland 204 (5th 198) 2019 Sweden 202 (2nd 241) The Netherlands 192 (3rd 237) Italy 171 (4th 219) Switzerland 106 (7th 152) Greece 101 (14th 50) 2018 Israel 246 (3rd 212) Czech Republic 174 (15th 66) Sweden 146 (2nd 253) Austria 106 (1st 271) Australia 96 (12th 90) |
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Here comes the money for Finland
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Huge reaction to their rehearsal snippet. 4s is fair.
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If it gets close enough in the jury vote it will win. I would have it quite strong favourite personally.
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Looks very 50/50. Something like Sweden 280/200 and Finland 155/325. I'm still interested in France and Norway though. 25s and 45s feel too big. I see France getting at least 250 Jury points, so a televote flop for Sweden could open things up. Norway could get a good televote score of 250+.
The runner order really could decide it. |
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I was actually persuaded by every 'expert' saying Finland had no chance, so took some profits at 6s. There's a lesson not to let the crowd cloud judgment. Book it still great, mind.
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Rehearsal clips for semi 1 up on YouTube. Loreen doesn't look like a winner. Amateur staging and vocals are not the best.
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If this was a random woman for Austria, then no chance, but Loreen factor is heavy
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I do not consider Sweden's song to be that fantastic that people make it out to believe. In my opinion (just my opinion) i do feel that the reason why Sweden is odds on is that people are backing it (heavily) because of the factor that it is sung by Loreen sho won the contest previously in 2012 and therefore believe that she will win all over again no matter what the song etc.
Also, the jury part of Euro Jury showing Sweden as the winner of the jury part with 354 points and 117 points ahead of France who was 2nd with 237 points has also caused people to react in betting on Sweden who now believe that Sweden will now have a 100 point lead with the actual jury in May. I doubt that any of the 128 people who voted in the jury part of the Euro Jury will be among the 185 people who will vote as jurors in May. The 185 jurors who will be voting in May will be voting on an actual live performance and will not be voting on National Final performances, music videos and preview videos that the 128 people did who voted on in the Euro Jury. The actual jury voting in May could well resemble the jury part of the Euro Jury with Sweden leading the actual jury vote with 100 points before televoting is added or Sweden could have a reduced lead or may end up not leading the actual jury part in May as the live performance on the night is what the jurors will be voting on. In my opinion i do not consider Sweden as winning this year but if it does win then good luck to them. |
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After tonight's clip, the 354 jury points look impossible. They will be judging the live show, not the video clip. So while she will clearly do well, I do not see a huge jury lead. The following looks possible... Sweden 240/200, Finland 140/300, France 240/180, Norway 190/240. So, I've moved a lot of the Sweden green onto the others.
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The short clip of rehearsals were slightly underwhelming for Loreen but I imagine her vocals will be much better on the night and that they've held back the best footage. Someone is confident that the Euro Jury lead of 117 points will be upheld on finals night with the real juries as there is still good money at 1.5 wanting to back her. It's a very high bridge to gap and it's a massive if, but if the actual performance ended up like that clip then I think that could be overturned even with a strong Loreen/Sweden bias (I swear the juries love them).
I'm still surprised that Spain was so lowly with the Euro Jury, I thought it would be much closer in points to the likes of France and Italy and ahead of Norway. |
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Yeah the low Spain score was surprising. It is marmite, but the vocals and originality are simply unmatched. I still expect a good jury score.
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France into 17s from 26s. Just waiting for them to upload some pics/clip of the 1st rehearsal.
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Last night i did see the odds on Sweden drift out to hit odds of 2.10 and at this moment the odds have shortend in to 1.92, so there is some slight nerves on Sweden but no doubt these nerves will be settled one way or the other when we see their live performance in full for the first time on Tuesday night. If on seeing the live performance people think that the odds are too short than what they should be for the performance that they are seeing then there will no doubt be an odds drift on Sweden and the same will also happen to Finland the second favourite. The market will adjust to correct itself if it needs to when people see the live performances for the first time.
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France getting backed into 12s after rehersal pictures.
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Got 6 figure green on France, so not sure what I'll do if France is competing for Jury win and the odds plunge to 4s.
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I think stick in that scenario. The staging is great and it's very similar to Barbara Pravis Viola so should get a very solid score with the voting public too.
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Will depend on the proximity of others mind you.
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True. Running may have a big effect from here. France in second is game over, but 24th and it's on.
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We've seen hot Swedish favourites drift before with Euphoria and Heroes (which thanks to the jurors still was able to topple the highest ever public voted song Grande Amore from Italy) which still just won. Israel and Toy was even more dramatic of a drift. Maybe this time it will be correct though.
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Sweden so always seem to get a favourable jury score. The fact it's hot favourites with the Euro Jury again suggests this too. It's not like it complies with their voting criteria either.
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do*
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Sweden always sends safe pop songs that juries like. But yeah, I don't believe they follow the voting criteria that closely. Originality? lol
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Yeah. Exactly. Zero originality but for maybe slightly different staging. Doesn't seem quite impartial. That said it's a great tune and worthy of a good jury vote, but I think entries like Spain, if criteria is followed, deserve to be above it. Anyways, we factor this all in!
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France 1st half - big blow
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