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armagnac
18 Nov 21 12:34
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 46,447 | Blogger: armagnac's blog
Anyone who doesn't back this this value 20/1 shot !!

Quite simply naughty boy is this years male version of Giovanna, still lives at home with mum who suffers from dementia. Which is the main reason he's taking part to raise more awareness about the illness.

He has a really caring side and wants to be someone to confide in like last years winner. apparently also keen to be camp chef, all good for airtime.
The major worry is he won't be entertaining but did Mrs Fletcher completely change the rules forever by being caring, nice and boring ? yep she did, with the help of many celebrity friends of course.
she went in virtually unknown to the masses as naughty boy will.
seems after a two years of hardly anyone being truly scared i think and hope the prods have found a good few frightened of the trials, from what i can see if true there will be at least some meaning it may be an open contest on that front.

The dementia angle is pretty massive imo, its been making big headlines in recent years with many football legends of the past suffering with this awful illness. Naughty boy has worked with some insanely popular people and megastars, so every chance he gets massive support throughout his journey like Gio did. Plus no doubt the media will be all over his campaign too.
Yes i did say campaign, he's a huge part of 'lives on hold' which is all about dementia awareness which will surely get mentioned inside and outside of camp.
Can see Lorraine pushing naughty boy all the way as well, he's been on her program a few times and even bought her flowers on his 1st appearance. One appearance was talking about the struggles since his mum was diagnosed.

He might get off to a slow start with the gobsh!tes like madely in there hogging the airtime but i fully expect this lad to go under the radar and come with a huge run as numbers thin.
He'll cruise past the deadwood, avoiding all arguments and agro and do a Gio to the line.

He's the son every mum wants !!
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Report LendUsAFiver December 12, 2021 2:01 AM GMT
Seems this could be the last year of this show. Frankie fix has gone viral big time, if she wins it will probably destroy the show for good. Last years winner has already killed ratings. I think they just want to clean up this last time but probably didn’t expect market liquidity to be this low. This show used to have millions matched on it but too many players now avoid it like the plague due to bizarre results that contradict all logic analysis.
It seems, over the years, that some people are at least guaranteed top 3 no matter what happens, maybe it is contractual and the public are just voting on 1 or 2 people to join them in the final.
Report bearcub December 12, 2021 8:12 AM GMT
lol
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 10:52 AM GMT
what a bizarre situation, simon to win absolutely everywhere you look, yet danny odds on. such a joy having a clean market Plain
Report loui December 12, 2021 12:02 PM GMT
You can make the final depending on how old you are
Report LendUsAFiver December 12, 2021 12:48 PM GMT
Simon and Danny are close on insta but Simon just in the lead but only by about 3%. Everywhere else Simon is smashing it, especially Twitter.
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 12:54 PM GMT
is it possible the app votes are **** ?
like being applied on a device or devices, being counted then reapplied after somehow clearing the logs.

did andy whyment poll as well as simon when he was beat ?
at least his odds were comparative to the sm scores
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 12:55 PM GMT
r i g g e d
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 3:51 PM GMT
itv advert jut said 'we have our 3 finalists, frankie, danny and simon
order they leave, thanks dec
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 3:58 PM GMT
is it a possibility the hacker only has access to who's in last place ?
Report blank December 12, 2021 4:51 PM GMT
Sure.
Jordan was odds on this time last year but Gi topped both votes on final night.
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 5:18 PM GMT
makes more sense than anything else i guess.
Report blank December 12, 2021 5:27 PM GMT
The Sun Poll has Simon on 43% and they weren't far off last year. I'm sure it can be manipulated though.
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 5:36 PM GMT
depends who finds it 1st, that number makes sense
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 5:52 PM GMT
David lost support after the Louise incident, are we to believe Danny didn't as well ? ok he's probably gonna pick up most of David's hardcore support but im sure he would of lost some like David, its not that attractive idolising an arrogant man.
Louise was in tears she said after that incident as well, off camera. Guess when she said she was gonna take a walk just after it happened
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 5:55 PM GMT
I wonder why Ant and Dec didn't ask Ginola who he wanted to win ?
It doesn't look like they'd be that happy with Danny winning maybe ?
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2021 6:44 PM GMT
fwiw army pre App I think Simon would win.  But the advent of the App and free voting for kids changes that dynamic.  Prolly what got Jossa over the line
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 6:59 PM GMT
agree Clyde
Report LendUsAFiver December 12, 2021 7:39 PM GMT
Sun poll was reason I backed Simon at 6/1 quite large, as soon as I backed him he went out to 8/1 so I went balls deep on him and took the lot lol - I don’t know if I exploited a broken bot but it’s been incredibly helpful after wasting £300 on NB
Report timbuctooth December 12, 2021 9:06 PM GMT
Market gone in play, but I`ve got a singing thingy still on; has it started, is my box further behind than usual?
Report timbuctooth December 12, 2021 9:09 PM GMT
Just announced, running late.
Report timbuctooth December 12, 2021 9:10 PM GMT
Spread on how soon before Danny cries; 8-10 minutes
Report timbuctooth December 12, 2021 9:11 PM GMT
Sorry, ^^^ `...pretends to cry`
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 9:18 PM GMT
danny gets the boring trial
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 12, 2021 9:21 PM GMT
Agree a bit tedious hes still behind simon on to win tweets
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 9:26 PM GMT
getting a monster ramp here from the boys, danny was in/out
Report bearcub December 12, 2021 9:26 PM GMT
I miss Naughty Boy Sad
Report bearcub December 12, 2021 9:26 PM GMT
No insiders and Simon would be odds on
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 9:27 PM GMT
we all do (who backed him)
Report bearcub December 12, 2021 9:28 PM GMT
I still have him 10k green on the offchance he comes back Sad
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 9:30 PM GMT
and me LaughLaugh

cant even get a tenner back CryCry
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 9:34 PM GMT
good thing is simon gets the chance to have lots of banter during his trial
Report LendUsAFiver December 12, 2021 9:37 PM GMT
Seems they would prefer a Simon win out of the two but probably too little too late now.
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 12, 2021 9:38 PM GMT
Simon did it a bit too easily I thought
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 9:40 PM GMT
yes JOT, trial was pretty boring as eating weird stuff been done to the hill but lots of laughs during it
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 9:42 PM GMT
since the start of the show the market is reacting to the edit
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 12, 2021 9:43 PM GMT
This is very ho hum complete lack of banter zero laughs, not that it will matter to her supporters. Simon actually got the longest trial segment
Report bearcub December 12, 2021 9:45 PM GMT
No one had any votes left for Frankie
Report bearcub December 12, 2021 9:46 PM GMT
He's back Cool
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 9:46 PM GMT
lol
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 12, 2021 9:46 PM GMT
She did very well really, has changed a lot of peoples perceptions of her
Report timbuctooth December 12, 2021 9:46 PM GMT
And the best bigging-up from Ant and Dec
Report LendUsAFiver December 12, 2021 9:47 PM GMT
Gonna be some panic on here if Frankie knocks one of these out Shocked
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 9:48 PM GMT
im expecting danny out
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 9:54 PM GMT
Frankie the most likely to have a decent hidden vote, like Gi Jossa
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 9:55 PM GMT
WAG the negative though
Report bearcub December 12, 2021 9:56 PM GMT
Thank feck for that
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 9:56 PM GMT
lol
Report bearcub December 12, 2021 9:57 PM GMT
I was sweating there lol
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 9:57 PM GMT
bloody market was right, not good. have a feeling the hacker dont get access to the h2h though
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 12, 2021 9:57 PM GMT
We could smell youSad
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 9:58 PM GMT
i am now, simon to be level or a nice big loss on danny
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 12, 2021 9:59 PM GMT
Frankie opened the show at about 7.00 LPM 8.00 so hardly coining it in if they have the figs. Of course that doesnt mean they wont have the vote totals now or possible its very close.
Report bearcub December 12, 2021 10:00 PM GMT
Market seems reasonably clean to me, The hacker was willing to bet big @ 1,i on evictions

Why didn't he take Frankie out?
Report Lifter December 12, 2021 10:00 PM GMT
Danny top 2 - this is why I backed him opening night. Just one of those extrovert d1cks that I hate, but the public lap it up.
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 10:02 PM GMT
agree bear
Report Cider December 12, 2021 10:05 PM GMT
all they had was the cut off yesterday. reckon it was close enough.

if it follows past form, they'll get it a few minutes before the close
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 10:09 PM GMT
f off bridge
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 12, 2021 10:09 PM GMT
Rotten cow
Report Cider December 12, 2021 10:09 PM GMT
here it is
Report Lifter December 12, 2021 10:10 PM GMT
Danny 1.4 from what? suspicious
Report Lifter December 12, 2021 10:11 PM GMT

Dec 12, 2021 -- 4:00PM, bearcub wrote:


Market seems reasonably clean to me, The hacker was willing to bet big @ 1,i on evictions Why didn't he take Frankie out?


Why does he need to if he can get 5x more on Danny

Report LendUsAFiver December 12, 2021 10:11 PM GMT
The market is rarely wrong this late.
Dougie was the biggest surprise
Report bearcub December 12, 2021 10:12 PM GMT
lol, spoke too soon
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 10:14 PM GMT
game over then, the crooks have arrived
Report Cider December 12, 2021 10:15 PM GMT
at least they don't like disclosing their advantage
Report Lifter December 12, 2021 10:15 PM GMT
1.15
Report LendUsAFiver December 12, 2021 10:15 PM GMT
Now there is some serious market confidence lol.
Report Cider December 12, 2021 10:15 PM GMT
Simon could still flip it, they'll get burned eventually
Report Lifter December 12, 2021 10:16 PM GMT

Dec 12, 2021 -- 4:15PM, Cider wrote:


Simon could still flip it, they'll get burned eventually


They are just building my confidence until I go all in and lose my life savings

Report LendUsAFiver December 12, 2021 10:16 PM GMT
Or someone with huge balls having a bluff Laugh
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 12, 2021 10:18 PM GMT
Yep it arrived just as Frankie spoke and endorsed him. Suspect he had won the votes previously but not by much.
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 10:18 PM GMT
all this proves is constantly checking sm scores is a pointless exercise
Report bearcub December 12, 2021 10:18 PM GMT
lol
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 10:19 PM GMT
might as well take the 1.01 greedy b'stards
Report Cider December 12, 2021 10:19 PM GMT
1.12 Grin
Report Cider December 12, 2021 10:20 PM GMT
rancid, some might say
Report Cider December 12, 2021 10:22 PM GMT
I've laid some, given what happened the last 2 years
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 10:22 PM GMT
whyment got beat short
Report LendUsAFiver December 12, 2021 10:22 PM GMT
Makes no difference now but my God Simon is doubling likes on FB - SM analysis is dead
Report Cider December 12, 2021 10:23 PM GMT
not financially set Laugh wac
Report Cider December 12, 2021 10:25 PM GMT
nice train army btw

hopefully you're filled in on LadBaby
Report Lifter December 12, 2021 10:26 PM GMT
This may not be the winning train, but it's the longest one
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 10:27 PM GMT
not backed him this year, christmas dinner is local cat
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 10:28 PM GMT
lol lifter, show thread
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 10:29 PM GMT
no mention of close vote, simon by a landslide then
Report LendUsAFiver December 12, 2021 10:32 PM GMT
Going to be an SM meltdown when Danny gets crowned. SM are hugely in favour of Simon tonight. Good luck guys.
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 12, 2021 10:33 PM GMT
Simon could have done with going on before Danny. 3rd year in a row my personal favourite has got chinned.
Report Cider December 12, 2021 10:33 PM GMT
Report bearcub December 12, 2021 10:39 PM GMT
Congrats Danny & hackers
Report Angela Rebecchi December 12, 2021 10:39 PM GMT
Well played Danny. Great series y'all.
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 10:40 PM GMT
crap
Report LendUsAFiver December 12, 2021 10:41 PM GMT
Paid out already. No messing about at betfair
Report timbuctooth December 12, 2021 10:42 PM GMT
Well done winners, one of my worst RTV results ever
Report Lifter December 12, 2021 10:44 PM GMT
Too bad, Tim - there's always Eurovision
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 10:46 PM GMT
well done winners, hopefully one of you ended up with my cash and not the thieving b'stards
Report LendUsAFiver December 12, 2021 10:47 PM GMT

Dec 12, 2021 -- 4:42PM, timbuctooth wrote:


Well done winners, one of my worst RTV results ever


Sad can’t win them all Tim, no chance of doing analysis on this year, not much made any sense.
I have a feeling liquidity is going to be hit hard next year, it’s completely in the hands of a select few.

Report armagnac December 12, 2021 10:49 PM GMT
at least hamilton got beat, i'll still sleep well
Report cool_hand_luke December 12, 2021 10:50 PM GMT
poor result for most, due to the unreadable British Public, U/L OP, the value was there and your strategy was right, just he wasn't smart enough to play his cards at all,  never mind  the correct time.
Report armagnac December 12, 2021 10:54 PM GMT
thanks luke, yeah if he was a game player like danny, he'd of had a good chance.
lacked any emotion, few tears after he was picked on, different outcome
never mind, we live to fight another day
Report timbuctooth December 12, 2021 11:25 PM GMT
Thanks boys, all part of the game, we`ll all know better next year
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