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five leaves left
18 May 21 10:57
Joined:
Date Joined: 24 Dec 05
| Topic/replies: 17,932 | Blogger: five leaves left's blog
I hope a few people will be around tonight

Running Order

Lithuania
Slovenia
Russia
Sweden
Australia
North Macedonia
Ireland
Cyprus
Norway
Croatia
Belgium
Israel
Romania
Azerbaijan
Ukraine
Malta
Pause Switch to Standard View *** Eurovision 1st Semi Final IR...
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Report Sekt10ned May 18, 2021 9:12 PM BST
I think there was some criticism of her singing but really this is a more current sounding song than most of what we've seen so far
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 9:12 PM BST
lyrics a little limited
Report Sekt10ned May 18, 2021 9:13 PM BST
Romania I mean
Report Lifter May 18, 2021 9:13 PM BST

May 18, 2021 -- 3:10PM, Cider wrote:


quite surprising to see odds against


Apparently roxen was awful in the juries show

Report J.O.TOBIN. May 18, 2021 9:13 PM BST
Now the fun starts
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 9:13 PM BST
Here we go...
Report Sekt10ned May 18, 2021 9:15 PM BST
only lots of lovely Azeri money will get this through
Report bearcub May 18, 2021 9:15 PM BST
I used to hate this, now i love it
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 9:17 PM BST
amazing
Report Sekt10ned May 18, 2021 9:17 PM BST
I wonder if there are any dogs watching wanting jump up and fetch those rings
Report Sekt10ned May 18, 2021 9:19 PM BST
Ukraine is my favourite song of the night so far
Report Sekt10ned May 18, 2021 9:19 PM BST
can Malta change things.. I think not
Report Lifter May 18, 2021 9:23 PM BST
Into 4s
Report Sekt10ned May 18, 2021 9:24 PM BST
song gets really bogged down
Report Sekt10ned May 18, 2021 9:24 PM BST
I can see now why the gamblers in the hall have changed their opinion on this one
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 9:26 PM BST
Ukraine top on tellystats and looks like staying there
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 9:28 PM BST
..or maybe not
Report Sekt10ned May 18, 2021 9:30 PM BST
To be honest I was a little surprised watching this as all the talk as of how competitive and strong this semi was. I dont really see that
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 9:30 PM BST
Tends to be the same every year
Report Sekt10ned May 18, 2021 9:31 PM BST
Happy yes you're right, I think it's the two year break making me rusty
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 9:32 PM BST
Too many similar songs, fishing in the same pool, as cider said
Report Sekt10ned May 18, 2021 9:34 PM BST
let's hope for some surprises
Report timbuctooth May 18, 2021 9:34 PM BST
What is this boll0x?
Report honestcl May 18, 2021 9:36 PM BST
Interesting comments.  I think it's been very competitive.  Quite often the odds are such where 9 or even 10 are short odds on. 

Romania and Israel were both around 1.6 a few days ago - now looking at over 2.0.  Belgium come in from odds against

Even the 1.4s of Croatia, Norway and Azerbaijan are far from shoe ins.  Outsiders that had a chance (Ireland and Australia) have let themselves down tonight admittedly.  A good show from them would have made this an absolute dogfight with 10 from 13 qualifying.  It's probably 10 from 11 or 12 now.
Report timbuctooth May 18, 2021 9:37 PM BST
Rylan gave his plastic surgeon a photo of Ant Middleton
Report Escapee May 18, 2021 9:38 PM BST
why is malta such a hot favourite?

dull song, sung in a high key by someone very high on the BMI index

1.01 to be in top 3... I don't get it??? (other than they haven't invaded anyone since the crusades)
Report timbuctooth May 18, 2021 9:39 PM BST
Sophie`s Charleston!
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 9:41 PM BST
CoolLove
Report Cider May 18, 2021 9:43 PM BST
pretty weak heat. Malta is obviously a Toy lite which is probably enough to take the semi. Not exactly a knockout jury wise.
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 9:45 PM BST
Malta mysteriously always do well with the juries Plain
Report bearcub May 18, 2021 9:49 PM BST
Cheryl pi55ed
Report J.O.TOBIN. May 18, 2021 9:49 PM BST
Cheryl Baker WTF need her on Betfair.
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 9:51 PM BST
LaughLaugh
Report Cider May 18, 2021 9:51 PM BST
Italy is vulnerable surely.
Report timbuctooth May 18, 2021 9:51 PM BST
WINNER!!!
Report honestcl May 18, 2021 9:52 PM BST
shocking analysis by Cheryl.  Likes Australia because it's 'out there' but doesn't rate Russia and Lithuania because they're 'out there'
Report Sekt10ned May 18, 2021 9:52 PM BST
Italy looks like an act well worth checking out outside of Eurovision
Report J.O.TOBIN. May 18, 2021 9:53 PM BST
Germany has to get points.
Report timbuctooth May 18, 2021 9:54 PM BST
WINNER = GERMANY!!!

Italy just has to be max red, it`s phucking dire
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 9:55 PM BST
GL all Cool
Report Cider May 18, 2021 9:56 PM BST
The BTC is in
Report honestcl May 18, 2021 9:56 PM BST
Italy is class.  2nd place last time out.  Televote winner in 2015.  Nearly always strong
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 9:56 PM BST
Tix Love
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 9:57 PM BST
Eden LoveLoveLoveLoveLoveLoveLove
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 9:57 PM BST
GTFI
Report Cider May 18, 2021 9:57 PM BST
n1 Fig
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 9:57 PM BST
cheers cider
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 9:58 PM BST
Shocked
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 9:58 PM BST
wd JOT
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 10:00 PM BST
boooo
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 10:01 PM BST
Ukraine CoolCoolCoolCoolCool
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 10:02 PM BST
Go home Croatia Grin
Report bearcub May 18, 2021 10:02 PM BST
Poor Roxen Cry
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 10:02 PM BST
she'd have been top 10 last year Sad
Report honestcl May 18, 2021 10:04 PM BST
Belgium.  Love it.  Solid night for me. 

Heart and wallet both happy tonight
Report five leaves left May 18, 2021 10:05 PM BST
Same here honest. Croatia failing and Israel going through my best results
Report honestcl May 18, 2021 10:05 PM BST
I don't spend months working out likely votes from neighbours etc but thankfully my memories of Croatia failing most years in the 10s meant I never piled on Croatia despite liking the song.  Thank the lord.
Report Lifter May 18, 2021 10:09 PM BST
Wish you'd told me that
Report Cider May 18, 2021 10:10 PM BST
Belgium was bit different, Croatia the 'sexy' young female act to lose out. One of them was likely to. Azer was the more red light, too.
Report MartinK May 18, 2021 10:15 PM BST
You need to perform, and ROXEN  can do it as we know from this live video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIDEQCsGEHs - from a couple of weeks ago.
She was unlucky to have the earpiece problem last night at the Jury show and the second attempt still wasn't at this level, but there you go - one set of bets gone, but a pleasant surprise with Israel going through since I had written off my relatively big 1.60 bet to qualify which I placed before the wholesale killing restarted.
Report hulk23 May 18, 2021 10:22 PM BST
any more 1.01 Cyprus to qualify left ? CoolCool
Report honestcl May 18, 2021 10:23 PM BST
The Aussie novelty has worn off.  Been doing OK off the back of jury votes but after that initial 2015/16 burst, they get no easy televote points any more.  The wacky song + no neighbours cost them this time.  Wonder how they'll approach it.  They were also supposedly the driving force behind Asiavision but that seems to have died a death as well.  Never hear about that any more
Report honestcl May 18, 2021 10:24 PM BST
How come the qualify market got suspended after 2 or 3 qualifiers had been announced?  Always liked trading that market until the very end of the 10 announcements.

Would have liked an extra punt on Belgium at what I imagine were pretty big odds as we got to the 9th spot and Ukraine still left in there
Report MartinK May 18, 2021 10:31 PM BST
One of the reasons Malta is and should be a favourite is that you need to do well with both the Jury and the televote to win.
I only have the last 4 years easily found but I'll try to get the rest sorted. But Malta  is the sort of song which will be top 3 in both - she hits the notes, and is a crowd pleaser.

year - country - tele - jury
2019 - Netherlands - 2 - 4
2018 - Israel - 1 - 3   
2017 - Portugal - 1 - 1
2016 - Ukraine - 2 - 2
Report timbuctooth May 18, 2021 10:35 PM BST
We`re shown a few seconds of Italy, and it drifts by 40%; how much will it drift when we`re shown the whole thing?
Report Corbyguy May 18, 2021 10:51 PM BST
Norway draw to perform 2nd half.
Report honestcl May 18, 2021 10:57 PM BST
Has Malta done their draw.  Price slip suggests they've been on and drawn 1st half
Report Corbyguy May 18, 2021 10:58 PM BST
Israel draw to perform 1st half.
Report honestcl May 18, 2021 10:58 PM BST
Eden trying to trash the Covid protocol and pick her own half rather than the host do it for her Laugh
Report honestcl May 18, 2021 10:59 PM BST
Always that pause when someone draws 1st half..... and then politely applauds even though that's the **** choice of the two Laugh
Report honestcl May 18, 2021 11:02 PM BST
year - country - tele - jury
2019 - Netherlands - 2 - 4
2018 - Israel - 1 - 3   
2017 - Portugal - 1 - 1
2016 - Ukraine - 2 - 2

From memory Sweden was 3rd on televote (Italy won that) and 1st with juries in 2015

Pretty sure Loreen was 1st and 1st when she smashed in 2012
Report J.O.TOBIN. May 18, 2021 11:02 PM BST
ManizahLoveLoveLove
Report Lifter May 18, 2021 11:04 PM BST
Could France not get both Juries and public? Surely the juries will back it, plus its top of a few polls
Report Corbyguy May 18, 2021 11:06 PM BST
Russia draw to perfom 1st half.
Report honestcl May 18, 2021 11:10 PM BST
Lifter - France likely to get juries.  Either 1st or 2nd.  We've seen it before with France when they've been fancied that the public deserts them.   2011 being the main example.  Super short favourite yet finished about 15th in the end. 

In 2016 they were one of the favourites but fell short, despite what I thought was a great song.
Report Corbyguy May 18, 2021 11:12 PM BST
Azerbaijan draw to perform in 2nd half.
Report honestcl May 18, 2021 11:17 PM BST
Good to see the Italian journo has been checking Betfair directly before asking his question to Destiny.  Obviously got a few quid on ExcitedLaugh
Report Corbyguy May 18, 2021 11:18 PM BST
Malta draw to perform in 1st half.
Report honestcl May 18, 2021 11:22 PM BST
It's a fickle game is this ESC market.  Malta gone from favs to 3rd fav on the back of drawing 1st half!

Italy back to sub 4 fav, having been at 4.4
Report Corbyguy May 18, 2021 11:25 PM BST
Lithuania draw to perform in 2nd half.
Report Corbyguy May 18, 2021 11:30 PM BST
Cyprus draw to perform in 1st half.
Report Corbyguy May 18, 2021 11:37 PM BST
Sweden draw to perform in 2nd half.
Report Corbyguy May 18, 2021 11:47 PM BST
Belgium draw to perform in 1st half.
Report Corbyguy May 18, 2021 11:56 PM BST
Ukraine draw to perform in 2nd half.
Report MartinK May 18, 2021 11:59 PM BST
Ukraine must have a chance of being scheduled to play last? - is this decided by the production team ?
Report Sekt10ned May 19, 2021 12:12 AM BST
Anyone else drawn in the second half will be desperate to be on after Sweden - their songs will really stand out.

Imagine if Cyprus and Malta are on one after the other
Report Cider May 19, 2021 7:53 PM BST
My first foray into the OR is Ukraine. Pretty slick effort watching it back, and it has something about it. The ingredients should all be there for Malta, but misses the mark slightly for me, all too obvious.
Report Sekt10ned May 19, 2021 7:59 PM BST
What was Ukraine before the start of the semi? it's now 9. I'm a little wary of that but I did enjoy the song lots.
Report Cider May 19, 2021 8:48 PM BST
A few bubbles popped and a favourable draw.
Report honestcl May 19, 2021 10:54 PM BST
Ukraine was 44 a couple of days ago....and I laid it!!  Bought back at 26 and thankfully that swift U turn means I'm not too damaged and I can now not stress on its continued plummet to single figures
Report MartinK May 20, 2021 2:28 PM BST
Saturday I got Ukraine at 65. All one way since then - took a little more at 36 om Monday.
Report five leaves left May 20, 2021 2:52 PM BST
n1 Martin. The jury vote the key to UKR. If it can do well with them, then a big pv throughout Europe could well see it take victory
Report Lifter May 20, 2021 3:07 PM BST
Does anyone know the criteria for the juries? It's kind of impossible to predict if we don't know what they're looking for. Do they have a checklist?
Report five leaves left May 20, 2021 3:18 PM BST
Vocal capacity, the performance on stage, the composition and originality of the song and the overall impression by the act

Ukraine ticks all of those boxes
Report MartinK May 20, 2021 5:53 PM BST
and of course the final criteria - who your neighbouring countries are!
Report timbuctooth May 20, 2021 6:02 PM BST
`Vocal capacity, the performance on stage, the composition and originality of the song and the overall impression by the act, ... your neighbouring countries !` are all runners in the `Without Brown Envelopes` market
Report Lifter May 20, 2021 6:53 PM BST
Strange, I couldn't find Malta in that market Tongue Out
Report Lifter May 20, 2021 6:55 PM BST

May 20, 2021 -- 9:18AM, five leaves left wrote:


Vocal capacity, the performance on stage, the composition and originality of the song and the overall impression by the actUkraine ticks all of those boxes


Think the vocal capacity may let them down. I'm getting more and more confident hat they'll be top 4 in the public vote, but there's many countries that tick all those boxes for the Jury vote.

On another note, my new fav is Russia. Malta is getting on my nerves now, even thought its got a huge change.

Report honestcl May 20, 2021 10:00 PM BST
Iceland 'against the odds'

**** off Sara Cox - they were 1.01!!!!
Report honestcl May 20, 2021 10:03 PM BST
Moldova through.  I love it!  Why the hell did I let the drift put me off!  Gotta love the eurosleaze!! Excited
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