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squares
11 Dec 20 18:50
Joined:
Date Joined: 26 Feb 01
| Topic/replies: 20,435 | Blogger: squares's blog
Bill and Oti: Tango to Enter Sandman by Metallica & Charleston to (Won't You Come Home) Bill Bailey by Ottilie Patterson with Chris Barber

HRVY and Janette: Charleston to Another Day of Sun by La La Land Cast & Rumba to Only You by Kylie Minogue and James Corden

Jamie and Karen: Quickstep to Thank God I'm a Country Boy by John Denver & Salsa to Last Dance by Donna Summer

Maisie and Gorka: Viennese Waltz to A Thousand Years by Christina Perri & Couple's Choice: Street/Commercial to Gettin' Jiggy Wit It by Will Smith

Ranvir and Giovanni: Waltz to Un Giorni Per Noi by Josh Groban & Jive to Candyman by Christina Aguilera
Pause Switch to Standard View ***IT'S HERE - SCD 2020 SEMI FINALS...
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Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 6:43 PM GMT
zoom

Yes I take your point I just don't understand how it ISN'T about the best dancer.

Again I've said before it's like having the 100m Final at the Olympics and giving the gold medal to the bloke who came 7th because

"He's really trying his best"

"Did you see his lovely baby in the video"

"Aah bless him he makes loads of mistakes, knows he's not a very good 'runner' but makes us laugh" etc etc

NO PEOPLE, HE FINISHED 7TH, THERE ARE SIX FASTER 'RUNNERS' THAN HIM FFS!

That's my opinion.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 7:09 PM GMT
zoom

So you take my point then and can see how ridiculous the non dancing ability vote is then, great.

Why get them to dance at all when many don't vote on the dancing?????

Hope you don't mind me having an opinion zoom sorry if it offends I thought this was a forum for discussion, opinions.
Report squares December 13, 2020 7:13 PM GMT
Lou, I don't think you have ever mentioned this before - we need to spend a lot of time debating it. Plain
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 7:15 PM GMT
squares

But EVERY time someone brings it up, ribs me with it I will answer.

Once again sorry if it offends on a forum!
Report squares December 13, 2020 7:17 PM GMT
Unlike races which are determined in who gets to the finishing line first, dancing is subjective.  Different people prefer different dances, different types of dance, different tempos, etc.  It's like trying to get everyone to agree on the best record or the best album.  Look at all the various debates in racing about the best horse.

Motsi said it on the radio last Monday when she listed off many of her achievements and championships in relation to SCD and said it's not about the technical aspects of the dance, it is about how your dancing makes the audience feel.
Report squares December 13, 2020 7:19 PM GMT
You created your own forums Lou, just stick your groundhog day arguments on those for people to join in please.  If you don't get it now, you never will.  The highest-scoring dancers have hardly ever won the series.
Report squares December 13, 2020 7:22 PM GMT
They have had dancing shows for trained dancers, they don't do very well and don't last very long.

SCD started out with far fewer people on it who were already good/trained dancers.  It has increased over time and is part of the narrative of the series - whoo the ringers are, etc.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 7:22 PM GMT
squares

I take your point fair enough.

However I still just can't see How they are on there to dance to the best of their abilities, all trying their very best, training long hours all week then whilst you could make a case for Maisie or HRVY being the best dancer (for me Maisie is the better of the two) you can't make a case for the other two.

Therefore IMO I don't understand how the skill level goes out of the window just because someone's "Ever so nice, a real trier"
Report squares December 13, 2020 7:22 PM GMT
You don't say
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 7:23 PM GMT
squares

This isn't your Forum, I'll join in and say what I like.

How old are you ffs?

Is it your 'Ball' we'e playing with here!
Report squares December 13, 2020 7:24 PM GMT
You can see how many people want to engage with you by the responses to your threads.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 7:25 PM GMT
Why don't you just block me squares?

I have four or five blocked it's great.  Read the rest, join in here and there and don't read the nonsense.  If I'm a 'Nonsense poster' in your eyes then just block me?
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 7:26 PM GMT
They ALL read it though squares!!!!

They know!
Report Cider December 13, 2020 7:31 PM GMT
Someone tell LOU, he's lucky it isn't left up to the public vote until the final Laugh
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 7:32 PM GMT
Here we go , The Cavalry's here!
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 7:34 PM GMT
zoom

No he's not a complete duffer agreed and he's surprised us all but a 6/10 dancer shouldn't be winning the dancing competition when there are 9/10 dancers in the same comp.
Report squares December 13, 2020 7:36 PM GMT
and indeed he is a bit of an old man

as are many of the viewers/voters - older men and women (mostly women) who are more likely to vote for someone they can relate to rather than someone whose achievements are off the scale and unrelatable
Report squares December 13, 2020 7:36 PM GMT
so disappointing we never got to see that again Zoom
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 7:37 PM GMT
zoom

You see all about opinions.  I don't like the 'Street' dances myself but to each his own of course.
Report squares December 13, 2020 7:37 PM GMT
or the Best Dance(s) and the most Memorable Dance(s)
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 7:38 PM GMT
squares

So why bother getting them to dance at all then!!
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 7:38 PM GMT
Once again zoom it didn't do it for me but hey ho.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 7:40 PM GMT
We all know who's out tonight zoom do keep up son
Report timbuctooth December 13, 2020 7:42 PM GMT
I hate Karen`s hair, really does her no favours
Maisie`s jacket was far too big for her, made her look too stumpy
Contrary to assertions, some of us did spot Bill`s prospects, backing him at up to 130
Report squares December 13, 2020 7:42 PM GMT
Safe

Maisie
HRVY

Dance Off - Ranvir
Report timbuctooth December 13, 2020 7:44 PM GMT
zoomraker 13 Dec 20 20:43 
is Karen Jamies partner timbuctooth?

Yes, that`s the one
Report squares December 13, 2020 7:44 PM GMT
Exactly Tim

Indeed Zoom, very few viewers will be able to determine the best dance technically but they will instantly know the dance which makes them smile, which they want to see again, etc.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 7:44 PM GMT
tim

I did congratulate you earlier in the thread about your Bill tip so maybe you never saw it.  But credit where it's due an excellent bet.

Agree about Maisie's jacket, far too big.

Haven't noticed Karen's hair though I must admit.
Report squares December 13, 2020 7:45 PM GMT
QS in the final as Maisie & Gorka's Couple's Choice
Report five leaves left December 13, 2020 7:45 PM GMT
evening all. Maisie QS Love
Report squares December 13, 2020 7:46 PM GMT
as in Couple's Choice of Favourite Dance
Report Danzaa December 13, 2020 7:48 PM GMT
QS is Maisie's best dance on Facebook.
Report timbuctooth December 13, 2020 7:51 PM GMT
zoom; don`t know if you know, but danzaa has a site, `tellystats.com`, he`s been reporting the B2 every Saturday night, and by Sunday morning we know who`s gone. Bit late for this year now, though!
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 7:51 PM GMT
Bill wondering whether to do his 6/10 dance or his 7/10 dance!

Wink
Report squares December 13, 2020 7:52 PM GMT
Would be good if judges gave Maisie her first week Samba
Report squares December 13, 2020 7:53 PM GMT
That will be Bill with his Week 2 8s and his Week 3 9s and a Week 4 10.

So much for being truthful.
Report squares December 13, 2020 7:57 PM GMT
Safe - Bill

Dance Off - Jamie

Both dressed up for their first dances in the dance off which is unusual
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 7:57 PM GMT
squares

But his REAL capabilities son, REAL capabilities.

Do keep up.
Report squares December 13, 2020 7:57 PM GMT
Waltz for Rnnvir and Salsa for Jamie
Report squares December 13, 2020 7:58 PM GMT
in your very red-tinted opinion
Report squares December 13, 2020 7:59 PM GMT
How eloquently Bill speaks about the experience.
Report five leaves left December 13, 2020 7:59 PM GMT
Winners speech from Bill Love
Report Danzaa December 13, 2020 8:00 PM GMT
Oti Love
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 8:05 PM GMT
squares

I'm telling the truth how it is.

Bill clearly isn't a very good dancer, the worst of the four left in it and miles behind the best two.

As usual I've made it clear from the start I'm VERY large Red on Bill and hoping he doesn't win obviously.  I'm also nicely Green on the best two dancers to the tune of about £1000 give or take.  I won about 2.5K year, about £1500 the year before and about £700 the year before that (from memory) so I can more than cover my Bill loss of about £2.5k.

You see I'm THE ONLY person on here who gives you the figures and bets right from the start.  Not that any of you need bother because you're all large Green on every dancer every year and everyone wins.

Please tell me how you do it!!
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 8:06 PM GMT
MaisieLove

HRVY Love
Report timbuctooth December 13, 2020 8:08 PM GMT
We`re good at it
We know the best doesn`t always win
We can spot value, not just back the favs
We trade
We win!
Report squares December 13, 2020 8:10 PM GMT
Just refer back to when you have had the same conversation last year, the year before, the year before, repeat to fade
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 8:12 PM GMT
squares

I think you should quit whilst you're behind don't you.

Before you go A CLEAR QUESTION HERE, EVERYONE'S READING IT.

How Red and Green are your last four looking now????
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 8:12 PM GMT
tim

Yes I take your point of course.

Watch out though, Bill hasn't won yet.
Report Cider December 13, 2020 8:12 PM GMT
You done well identifying Kelvin tbf LOU. It must be that expert eye.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 8:13 PM GMT
Who's Kelvin?
Report five leaves left December 13, 2020 8:15 PM GMT
The person you won 2.5k on apparently Laugh
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 8:17 PM GMT
Oh I see fair enough.

Yes I had all four I think running for me in the Final, same the year before that.

It's this year I'm up sh!t creek.  I'm hoping HRVY is my paddle!
Report five leaves left December 13, 2020 8:32 PM GMT
A shame we only heard about Maisie's dance. Looks like we'll have to wait for the rest. Glad we get to see Maisie's wonderful QS again though
Report timbuctooth December 13, 2020 8:33 PM GMT
Don`t know if you remember, Lou, but a few years back I explained to you how to trade, specifically re. Ed Balls? Likewise this year, traders don`t need Bill to win, that`s how we (the regs on here) all win long term.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 8:35 PM GMT
tim

Yes I think I do remember us 'chatting' on here about that.

You must all have Crystal Ed Balls though to know when to 'buy' and 'sell' on each dancer!
Report timbuctooth December 13, 2020 8:40 PM GMT
No, not really. There are only two options to back or to lay, meaning a blind monkey would get 50% of them right; all traders need to do is get 51% right and Hey Presto!, they`re long term winners. Simple as that.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 9:12 PM GMT
Oh I know my figures Tim and yes 51% will do the trick.

You must get it wrong sometime though surely.  Bit like myself I've done really well on Strictly, really well but this year using the same logic that 55 year old, slightly tubby Bill can't possibly win yet look at him now to be fair.
Report timbuctooth December 13, 2020 9:34 PM GMT
But that`s the beauty; you can get 49% wrong, and still win!
Report timbuctooth December 13, 2020 10:40 PM GMT
I remember discussing such issues with you a few years back, zoom. Here`s `tim`s Top Tip To Tentative Traders`
Offer to back and lay every single one of them, but only at prices you don`t think will ever be matched. Keep a reasonably normal eye on events and the market, be sure your prices remain vaguely outrageous, adjusting as necessary. Sit back, and prepare to be amazed at how often you`ve been matched, yet the market`s back to where it always was. Which makes the whole dark art of trading far easier and a strike rate of 51% eminently achievable
Report timbuctooth December 13, 2020 10:43 PM GMT
Sorry, forgot this bit;
Don`t try and guess which way the market`s going, that`s far harder; waiting for your ridiculous prices to be matched should leave you enough wriggle room for it not to matter that the market`s moved a bit.
Report timbuctooth December 13, 2020 11:26 PM GMT
No set rule, but much more than 10%! Depends to a degree how much money`s in the market, how `active` the situation is, ie is it midweek? Or five minutes after the market re-opens following an elimination? If it`s fairly active, which way`s the market going is usually obvious enough, at least in the very short term. Is there a big gap between the three visible prices available? And  is there an even bigger gap between the three visibles, and the fourth best price? In either case, stepping in one tick off the price at the outer edge of any big gaps should provide the necessary (short term!) wriggle room.

As an example, when the SCD market reopened tonight, HRVY was about 2.7, but it looked clear he was more likely to drift. Sure enough, he went to about 2.9, when I noticed that the RHS prices were 3.1, 3.15, then 3.75, so I offered to back at 3.7; only had £5.37 matched, but every bit helps when two seconds later, he`s back at 2.9. Having 500 or 1,000 of these in a series soon adds up, even if you`re getting 49% of them wrong!

And, of course, the fact that you`ve got all these micro trades going on, doesn`t stop you from also playing your other strategies at the same time

Using a Dreambox to watch telly means I have something like a 40 second delay on the rest of you, so I have to be a bit more careful in-running but, even then, just using the `Only Offer Extreme Prices` rule still works well enough
Report timbuctooth December 13, 2020 11:33 PM GMT
So slow typing, I`ve just seen your post. One or two of your prices might be a bit optimistic, but that`s definitely the idea. So long as you`re keeping an eye on things over the next few days, you won`t mind if any of your prices are matched, you`ll have wriggle room, so you can relax, forget about these offers for now, get on with your other, usual plays.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 11:41 PM GMT
tim

I think you've explaioned that quite well but perhaps still a bit tricky for me sorry!

For instance you said when HRVY opened up at 2.7 it looked clear he he was more likely to drift that's what I don't get.  What if you backed him and he shortened up?

Excuse my ignorance and yes I can see that you only have to get it right 51% of the time in theory but I just can't fathom what makes you think someone will shorten/drift?

It's a bit like there's a guy called "Caan someone" who trades on Betfair.  He shows you in his youtube videos how he backs something at say 3.8 then lays it off at maybe 3.6.  All very good but I'd love to be able to get a message to him saying "but what if your back of 3.8 drifted out to 4 or 4.5 what do you do then"?
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 14, 2020 12:03 AM GMT
zoom

Yes of course I see that extreme but look at say Bill now in Strictly.  He's currently 1.95 to back and 2.0 to lay.  There's decent money on both sides so how do we know what price he will be in a day or two or the weekend even.  It's just a toss of a coin isn't it?
Report timbuctooth December 14, 2020 12:04 AM GMT
zoom; offer the more extreme price. In my HRVY example above, I offered to back at 3.7, not at the 3.2 where the gap first `opened`. Whether that`s the inside or the outside, I`m not sure!

Lou; at the time, there was a couple of hundred chasing his price out tick by tick, with only the odd tenner or so on the RHS, so not hard to guess he was drifting. No one can look at every market all the time and call every drift or plunge, but everyone can pick their moments to strike, when the evidence is in their favour.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 14, 2020 12:06 AM GMT
tim

Sorry what is RHS?  Is it something High st?
Report timbuctooth December 14, 2020 12:07 AM GMT
Lou; re Bill`s price, we don`t know which way he`s going, which is why you only offer prices you`re fairly sure you can get out of.
Report timbuctooth December 14, 2020 12:08 AM GMT
RHS - Right Hand Side
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 14, 2020 12:10 AM GMT
Ok thank you.

I'm sort of learning!

Off to bed now, thanks for your help.
Report squares December 14, 2020 1:45 PM GMT
Tim FOTY Love
Report Llamedos December 14, 2020 2:59 PM GMT
Voting in the final.
I have copied the following from a previous series, I am right in thinking the format for Saturdays final will be the same including the fact that Judges votes are for reference only and it is purely the public vote that decides. 

All four couples will perform three routines. A Judges' Pick, a Showdance and their own favourite dance. But this time the judges' scores will be for reference only. The ultimate winner of Strictly Come Dancing will be decided purely by the public vote.

So Bill could come last in Judges voting but still win because of the public vote.
Report timbuctooth December 14, 2020 3:05 PM GMT
Yes, you`re right in thinking that the judges will `score`, but these are entirely irrelevant, only for fun, the winner will be picked exclusively by the PV. So yes, Bill could get the lowest score but still romp it.

The `this time` is referring and contrasting to previous weeks in that series, rather than `this year, things are different`
Report Llamedos December 14, 2020 3:10 PM GMT
timbuctooth14 Dec 20 16:05Joined: 11 Jun 12 | Topic/replies: 19,428 | Blogger: timbuctooth's blog
Yes, you`re right in thinking that the judges will `score`, but these are entirely irrelevant, only for fun, the winner will be picked exclusively by the PV. So yes, Bill could get the lowest score but still romp it.

The `this time` is referring and contrasting to previous weeks in that series, rather than `this year, things are different`


Thanks for that Tim
Report timbuctooth December 14, 2020 5:23 PM GMT
zoom? You watching? Your HRVY back is getting a bit close, you`re fourth best price, next to be visible, and only £44 before you. So, now that you`re actually at risk of being matched, time to ponder life!

24 hours later, do you still want the bet? Are you still confident you can trade out profitably, if matched? If you get matched, do you still even want to trade out, or do you think that`s top value, and you`d now rather keep it, thanks? What`s left waiting in front of you? If it`s a chunk, at 3.45, are you keen enough to maybe ask for 3.4? What`s behind you? Is there much of a gap between your 3.5 and the next higher price? Should you move your 3.5 out to one tick below that higher figure?

Then, once you`ve decided what to do, run similar checks against all your other offers.
Then, do the same on each of your markets
Then, repeat the whole process, you never know what market moves have been made in the last few minutes.

Those who consider this `hard work` probably aren`t going to be best suited to trading, particularly the micro-trading we`ve been discussing. Those who consider this all to be `great fun`, well, they`re right!
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 14, 2020 5:30 PM GMT
tim

I can follow what you're saying.  There's a lot of money waiting to back Bill at 1.88 and not much wanting to lay him so logic says his price will shorten.  Obviously then this will effect HRVY price and there's not much at the moment waiting to back HRVY at 3.2 and higher so zoom could well get matched at 3.5.

Quite a shortening of Bill today it has to be said, someone knows something by the look of it.
Report squares December 14, 2020 6:10 PM GMT
Could be something as straightforward as knowing some of the final dances, ie talk on DS that HRVY has a contemporary dance choreographer suggesting he may reprise his Couple's Choice or it may be for the showdance.  I'm not convinced contemporary routines are particular vote winners amongst the traditionalists.

Judges tend to love them though.
Report squares December 14, 2020 6:12 PM GMT
Jesy not returning to LM then.
Report timbuctooth December 14, 2020 7:20 PM GMT
Glad to see you`re on top of things, but Bill at 1.86? I thought you were offering 1.5?

I tend to be around during the times when programmes are on, keeping an eye on things, and leave bets up at all times, knowing that if they`re matched, I should have left myself enough wriggle room to deal with when I wake up. Well, on at least 51% of those times, which is what matters.

All of this chat is based on what we might call the `only offer extreme prices` strategy, which is perhaps one of the safer routes into trading. But it`s only one idea, there are numerous other ways of trading, some of which I`m actively using at any one time, but let`s keep things simple for now, see how it goes, you can get a bit more jiggy with it later on if you`re enjoying it
Report timbuctooth December 14, 2020 7:34 PM GMT
Sorry, slow typing again, just seen re. Bill. Yes, right now, that 1.86 looks like falling into the 49% category, but no matter, as you say you`ve got to deal with what`s in front of you now. This is Specials though, you know well that a drift back out to who-knows-what is entirely possible, so no need to panic. (In fact, stakes, liability and exposure should never be big enough to make you panic, this is supposed to be fun!) Some players would swallow the hit, back Bill at 1.7x, reduce the damage, but this is very much a personal choice; how sure are you that he won`t drift, how much damage would that cause to your book, how much faith do you have in your ability to ensure future trades improve matters, won`t make things worse?

Answering those questions is something I can`t help you with, I`m afraid, but it`s all very much part of the learning process.
Report timbuctooth December 14, 2020 7:36 PM GMT
Realistic? REALISTIC??? You`re not supposed to be realistic, that`s the whole point!!!!!
Report timbuctooth December 14, 2020 7:42 PM GMT
Right, now Maisie`s in danger of being matched; applying the same checklist as earlier, what are you going to do about it?
Report timbuctooth December 14, 2020 7:57 PM GMT
Even if she`s 15 by Saturday, backing her at 9.8 is still good business, if you can lay at 9.6 or less in the meantime. Then, if you think you can get out lower, back her again at 10 or 11, repeat and repeat, it all adds up, and the more trades you make, the easier it should be to hit a 51% strike rate
Report timbuctooth December 19, 2020 1:37 AM GMT
Excellent news, I`m delighted!
We all started somewhere, we all had to learn a different skill/mindset, overcome a lifetime`s (losing!) habits, most of us will have first dabbled with very small stakes, (£2, for me), and all traders will have had their own `31p` moment, when they realised they could actually win at this trading malarkey. Right now, it`s not about the money, it`s about learning what you`re at, what you can get away with, what`s being too optimistic/greedy/scared, the details of which will vary with each series and market, but the overall ideas are universal. As you get better, the `31p`s will increase in size and frequency, along with your confidence, so don`t be chasing the money; serve your apprenticeship, and the money will be chasing you!
Report squares December 19, 2020 6:35 AM GMT
What fantastic helpful generous advice Tim Grin
Report DickyM December 19, 2020 9:41 AM GMT
Hey Zoom did you lay some of that 1.60 Bill just after 8 this morning ?
Report timbuctooth December 19, 2020 12:24 PM GMT
1.8x last night, 1.6 this morning, immediately back to 1.9x now is something most punters/posters won`t have even noticed, but it`s a great example of the value of leaving outrageous prices up.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 19, 2020 12:37 PM GMT
tim

I wonder why he would fluctuate that much.  Yes it's a great trade if you can do it just wonder why the up AND down.  Could understand more if he was backed in or drifted?
Report timbuctooth December 19, 2020 12:57 PM GMT
Sometimes it`s no more than fat fingers, sometimes it`s one enthusiastic player, and sometimes there`s a more real reason for it, such as half of Fleet Street coming out for Bill this morning causing the plunge, then the RP coming out for HRVY, causing the drift back out.
As I said in my first post about this; `Sit back, and prepare to be amazed at how often you`ve been matched, yet the market`s back to where it always was.` It happens all the time but, because the market looks pretty much unchanged, most people are unaware of these movements, and if Dicky hadn`t posted about it, most would be none the wiser about this glaring example. Ours not to question, ours to take advantage of.
Report timbuctooth December 19, 2020 1:05 PM GMT
And, when you say; `Yes it's a great trade if you can do it`, don`t be falling into the trap of thinking traders knew this would happen, because we didn`t, nobody did, or ever does, know these things. Which is why using the `extreme prices only` strategy is such a (relatively!) safe entry point for would-be traders, as you don`t need to `know` diddly!
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 19, 2020 1:13 PM GMT
tim

Yes point taken thanks for your help very interesting.
Report squares December 19, 2020 5:11 PM GMT
test.
Report squares December 19, 2020 5:12 PM GMT
Anyone know where my thread for tonight is?
Report bearcub December 19, 2020 5:19 PM GMT
Was there earlier Squares, i wished you Happy Christmas on it..

Just start a new 1, and move on, everyone knows what a dick he is..
Report squares December 19, 2020 5:24 PM GMT
Yep, I saw that bear.  Tobes and I were talking about Newmarket, he late last night and me first thing this morning.  What on earth has happened in the meantime?
Report bearcub December 19, 2020 5:26 PM GMT
I've been on here most of the day watching the racing and nothing was posted
Report squares December 19, 2020 5:27 PM GMT
Same here - how odd
Report timbuctooth December 20, 2020 4:41 PM GMT
OK, tentative traders, today we`ll introduce what I call the `ping pong` strategy. For this, you need to be keeping an eye on the markets, have an idea of a runner`s `trading range`, and so be able to exploit any gaps around that trading range. Today`s example is SPOTY, with Ronnie, Henderson and Fury being traded quite actively, yet there`s often decent gaps between the `back` and `lay` prices. Given the lack of consensus over their respective chances, strong opinions on both sides, it`s been easy to back and then lay these three much lower, and then repeat the process, locking in reasonable amounts of free green, which can be left on them, or shifted to the runner of your choice.

As an example, here`s what I`ve ping ponged on Henderson in the last hour or two
Jordan Henderson
22
£10.00
£210.00
Ref: 220001462254
Matched: 16:21 20-Dec-20
Jordan Henderson
22
£10.00
£210.00
Ref: 220001664262
Matched: 16:21 20-Dec-20
Jordan Henderson
24
£0.03
£0.69
Ref: 220001371214
Matched: 16:18 20-Dec-20
Jordan Henderson
24
£13.80
£317.40
Ref: 220001371214
Matched: 16:18 20-Dec-20
Jordan Henderson
23
£0.47
£10.34
Ref: 219999249320
Matched: 16:18 20-Dec-20
Jordan Henderson
24
£0.50
£11.50
Ref: 220001371214
Matched: 16:16 20-Dec-20
Jordan Henderson
24
£1.51
£34.73
Ref: 220001371214
Matched: 16:16 20-Dec-20
Jordan Henderson
24
£4.16
£95.68
Ref: 220001371214
Matched: 16:16 20-Dec-20
Jordan Henderson
23
£17.00
£374.00
Ref: 219999249320
Matched: 16:15 20-Dec-20
Jordan Henderson
23
£2.53
£55.66
Ref: 219999249320
Matched: 16:14 20-Dec-20
Jordan Henderson
26
£10.00
£250.00
Ref: 219998127117
Matched: 15:53 20-Dec-20
Jordan Henderson
26
£10.00
£250.00
Ref: 219998127117
Matched: 15:49 20-Dec-20
Jordan Henderson
32
£19.49
£604.19
Ref: 219998024090
Matched: 15:47 20-Dec-20
Jordan Henderson
28
£20.00
£540.00
Ref: 219990311642
Matched: 14:55 20-Dec-20

So, starting at the bottom, backed at 28 and 32, laid 26 and 23, backed 24, laid 23, backed 24, laid 22

No big deal, not the road to riches, but all free green. Start small, backing first, so there`s only a small loss if you don`t get to lay, rather than a bigger loss if you lay first then can`t back higher.
These ping pong trading range gaps happen all the time, but become far more pronounced and available as you near the end of a market especially a year-long one like this, as people start to panic
Report timbuctooth December 21, 2020 4:52 PM GMT
First thing to say, and this is very important; there`s no `right` or `wrong`, there`s only what works for YOU! How, what, when, where and who you trade is all down to your own personal taste for things like excitement, risk aversion,  time available, confidence levels, (both in your own ability, and the likelihood of getting out of trades), etc.

Some prefer to stick 10k up to back 0-0 in a football match at 11.0, hoping to lay it at 10.5, nicking a monkey on the 0-0, or spreading that green out to (all?) other scores, but pretty much all of my own trading preferences include the word `volatility`. Sometimes that will be volatility in the market as a whole, sometimes it will just be volatility within a runner`s trading range, which is what we saw yesterday in SPOTY, with, for example, Henderson trading all through the 20s-low 30s for a few hours, making it easy to play ping pong.

Remember, no right or wrong, just what works, so I find that ping pong is a strategy suited to particular times, being reliant on that `volatility within a trading range`, which most often comes as we near the very end of a market, and usually one with reasonable amounts of liquidity, like SPOTY yesterday. It`s not something that usually works at other times, because you don`t have the quick-fire, in and out, opportunities that ping pong depends on.

As such, I definitely wouldn`t be trying to play it in DOI, at least not yet; it`s a fully unformed market, there`s no liquidity, no volatility, no real trading ranges, so all that`s likely to happen is you`ll get picked off by those who know more than you do about particular runners and their abilities, leaving your book stuffed before the series even starts.

One great benefit of trading is that you can improve things no end over the course of the series, but starting off stuffed makes it a long hard slog, one which I`ve learnt to avoid. So, at such an early stage of a market, I only trading for small stakes, acquiring bits of green and, as the series and market progresses, knowledge and confidence levels growing, I`ll be increasing stakes, using the bits of green as a cushion.

We all get it wrong sometimes so, if you want to be a long term winner, first you have to stay in the game! So, tippy-tippy, chip away, no heroics necessary, no max reds! Start by nicking another 31p, then slowly but surely add to that.


Right, at times, you can forget everything I`ve posted re. `extreme prices` and `ping pong`; often, they even contradict each other! They`re both great strategies for the right time and place but, at other times, other ideas are needed.
Seeing as we`re talking about DOI, the only strategy I`m currently trying there is `lay them all`, where I leave lays up at much lower than what`s available. For the favs, maybe half their current prices but, for the rags in such an unformed market, with who knows what hidden talents some of them might have, I`ll offer to lay them all at maybe 6.0. You don`t want to be laying a massive price on a lurking springer so early, with no knowledge, and even laying the 6.0 at this stage means no damage, loads of time to lay, back and trade.
I offered £100 liability on them all, so far I`ve only had one lay matched, £10 of the £33 at 4.0 on Billie, who`s traded between 4.0 and 50, current prices being 6.0-30. As you can see, small money, ((stay in the game!) but I haven`t even heard of half of them, have no idea as to their ability. There are times to trade, there are times to sit on your hands, but even that tenner`s a positive start, stakes to be increased with the acquisition of free greens, knowledge and confidence in where, when, what and who to trade.


OK, let`s make matters worse! All we`ve discussed so far are just trading strategies; when it comes to conviction backing or laying, again, you can forget everything I`ve posted!

So, yes, at times contradictory, in fact frequently contradictory, but perhaps the most important factor is recognising when and where to use what strategy. For me, extreme prices at such a stage as we were at in IAC, ping pong for yesterday`s SPOTY, lay them all for now in DOI. There are other strategies, and you`ll often end up mixing and matching, a bit of this and a bit of that, but that`s what your apprenticeship`s for!

Spreadsheets? I do no research, keep no records, just watch telly and guess!
Report timbuctooth December 21, 2020 5:36 PM GMT
Very much so; I think you`ve just completed the first stage of your apprenticeship!
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