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PAKEY
06 Dec 20 10:01
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Date Joined: 10 Jun 02
| Topic/replies: 4,319 | Blogger: PAKEY's blog
Hello you lovely people, great to see so many of you still here keeping up the good work. Back for my usual annual visit, but needing a little reassuring as to why Bill is still remaining odds on. Having just missed HRVY decent prices after his bad week, I lumped at 4s and am worrying that his fantastic dancing and charisma(don't say I always pick the handsome young men) didn't have him fighting for favourite last week.
After Shane let me down last week, needing reassurance that the PKY household will be able to afford Christmas this year.
Hope you are all doing well and slaying the bookies x
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Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 6, 2020 10:20 AM GMT
Obviously HRVY and Maisie are a long way clear of the others dancewise so one of them should win it.

I've said from the start that whilst Bill has surprised us it just means we all thought he'd be a 4/10 dancer when in fact he's a 6 or 7.  Surely that isn't good enough to win this and for the life of me I could never understand his favouritism whatsoever.  Looks like he'll drift a bit from the 8/11 he was before last night but probably not much.  I just don't get it with him at all.

So summing up I think your 4/1 bet is looking very good with Maisie to beat in the dance department and Bill in the popularity.

Good luck I hope he wins too.
Report PAKEY December 6, 2020 10:31 AM GMT
Thanks Lou, hope you're keeping ahead of the game.
Couldn't have Maisie from the start as she was too stage school so unlikeable, although she has improved over the last couple of weeks, could never see her winning.
Was hoping Bill would have a couple of mediocre weeks and while he has obliged, his price has retained static.
Just a wee bit worried that somebody knows something about the voting and it's swaying the odds.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 6, 2020 10:34 AM GMT
Yes no logic whatsoever to him being odds on Fav so maybe someone knows something about the public's votes?

Just hope they finally come to their senses and vote for one of the obvious two better dancers.
Report PAKEY December 6, 2020 10:46 AM GMT
Fingers crossed Lou, and especially the more likeable one Grin
Report squares December 6, 2020 3:05 PM GMT
Hi PKY, good to see you looking in.  I thought of you the other day when I noticed a horse called Pakie's Dream win.  I wouldn't be surprised if HRVY is vying for favourite once the market reopens.
Report PAKEY December 6, 2020 5:03 PM GMT
Hi squares, happy see you're still doing your thing, profitable I hope?
Funny you mention the horse, a mate of mine told me the day after it had won, was gutted as think it was a decent price too.
Nice to know I'm not the only one thinking HRVY has been neglected by the market so far.
Will keep popping in from now on to keep abreast of things.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 13, 2020 6:48 PM GMT
PKY

HRVY very good again last night, in the final and in with a real shout.

Fingers crossed .............
Report PAKEY December 13, 2020 10:13 PM GMT
In my eyes he's not put a foot wrong Lou, could not have played it better, even saving his best until now.
Still worries/irks me that Bill is favourite, just makes me wonder if "they" know the voting.
Report timbuctooth December 13, 2020 10:20 PM GMT
I don`t think anyone doubts the cleanness of SCD markets, it`s only IAC that`s dirty
Report PAKEY December 13, 2020 10:26 PM GMT
Hope you're right tim, it doesn't usually bother me to be backing against the general consensus
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 14, 2020 9:45 AM GMT
pakey

Yes I entirely agree with you.

1.  He's been very good and seemingly that bit better just about every week.

2.  Comes across very well and his partner lovely too.  Due a win so everyone will be pleased for her.

3.  How has Bill been favourite for the last three or four weeks and still Evens favourite now?

We can only hope HRVY comes through in the final.  I'm rooting for him all the way.
Report PAKEY December 14, 2020 11:10 AM GMT
Glad it's not just me Lou, the whole thing just doesn't ring true.
If I was doing a book I wouldn't give Hrvy at any higher than 1.5, and Bill no better than 3.5.
I usually like to take my stake back but not going to lay anything off.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 14, 2020 11:36 AM GMT
I totally agree can't understand the odds whatsoever.  That said people are backing Bill at odds on, he's odds on with the Bookies and has been clear favourite for three or four weeks now.
Report PAKEY December 15, 2020 11:05 AM GMT
American Smooth(Dance of the decade) for me, closely followed by the record breaking street dance in week 6.
I'd like to see him do both in the final to show his versatility.
Report squares December 15, 2020 11:23 AM GMT
HRVY and Janette

Favourite dance: American Smooth to One (Singular Sensation) from A Chorus Line

Showdance: Boogie Wonderland by Brittany Murphy

Judges' Pick: Jive to Faith by Stevie Wonder featuring Ariana Grande
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 15, 2020 12:01 PM GMT
Wow I think that's three real good ones for HRVY.

HRVY Love
Report PAKEY December 15, 2020 2:36 PM GMT
Thank you squares, he has a chance to really shine with those.
Report DickyM December 16, 2020 11:42 AM GMT
Hi Pakey Im with you on this, I think the current prices should be closer, so my money is currently leaning toward HRVY. Bill has the most popular killer dance of the series, but the social media momentum seems to be with HRVY at the right time. Whoever wins, its been an intriguing contest, the would-be oldest winner vs the would-be youngest winner
Report PAKEY December 16, 2020 4:21 PM GMT
Hi DuckyM, I'm hoping that Bill's novelty appeal of oldie/unexpected dancer has now waned a little.
I'd like to think it was at least a 50/50 chance, although I have HRVY ahead as Bill has been a bit overshadowed in the last three weeks.
It's definitely been entertaining
Report PAKEY December 19, 2020 11:33 AM GMT
We might just be heading to pre show joint favourites Excited
Report five leaves left December 19, 2020 12:03 PM GMT
You never know with these markets Pakey Grin  Even though we want different results, good luck for tonight. Betting aside it looks like being a wonderful final. With all the couples given dances that we're great first time round. No attempt to nobble any of them, as we've seen in the previous. So whoever wins will deserve it.
Report five leaves left December 19, 2020 12:04 PM GMT
previous years*
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 19, 2020 12:25 PM GMT
I'm trying not to be biased here I'm really not but what was the big thing about Bill's 'Rapper's Delight'?

Yes it was a bit different for a man of 55 to be doing it granted but I think the most noticeable thing about it was his get up with the hat, he did look good.  He's hardly a good dancer is he so whilst he's been ok I really can't see what the thing was with that specific dance?
Report PAKEY December 19, 2020 12:49 PM GMT
Good luck to you too fll, have to admit I'm never comfortable when we have opposing positions on a market. I haven't laid anything off but knowing you you will have managed a decent book throughout to ensure minimal damage. Best of luck mate,I agree it's all been fair throughout and any winner will be fully deserving.

Lou, I'm 100% in on HRV but even I was wowed by Rapper's Delight. It was Bill's to lose from an early stage, but feel his star has faded over the last three weeks while HRV has shone.
I'm under no illusions though, if Bill performs at the top of his game in all three dances and HRVY falters or makes mistakes, he could ultimately win this.
Nail biting night ahead in the Pakey household, the kids are praying that Bill isn't going to cancel their Christmas.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 19, 2020 12:55 PM GMT
Pakey

Ok fair enough.

Best of luck to you (us!)
Report PAKEY December 19, 2020 8:33 PM GMT
Well done Bill backers x
Report timbuctooth December 19, 2020 9:08 PM GMT
Glad you enjoyed your return to our little world, don`t be a stranger again!
Report PAKEY December 19, 2020 9:40 PM GMT
Thanks tim, definitely back now,really enjoyed it.
Even backed Hollies at 4s tonight so that I can have an involvement tomorrow, plus I have an immense dislike for Hamilton Grin
Looking forward to slowly getting back in with the crack again
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