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Lifter
02 Dec 20 15:12
Joined:
Date Joined: 19 Sep 14
| Topic/replies: 2,578 | Blogger: Lifter's blog
Very interesting vote off tonight.

One of the favs will be leaving if it's a double. Could be any of them. I'd guess AJ and then Mo, but Mo had a brilliant show last night, and appears he has a trial tonight too.
Pause Switch to Standard View DAY 18 IAC 2020 - Another Double?
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Report Makybe_Diva December 2, 2020 9:27 PM GMT
Quorn 2 Laugh
Report Makybe_Diva December 2, 2020 9:31 PM GMT
Yes, who’s going to do Gio’s shower? Shocked Laugh
Report Danzaa December 2, 2020 9:32 PM GMT
Corr, I'd pump Giovanni in the shower anytime phwoaar
Report Lifter December 2, 2020 9:33 PM GMT
No thanks
Report Makybe_Diva December 2, 2020 9:33 PM GMT
If I were Gio, I’d get AJ to do my shower.
Report Lifter December 2, 2020 9:34 PM GMT
Desperate from Jordan Angry
Report Danzaa December 2, 2020 9:35 PM GMT
AJ pretending to have a personality late in the game
Report Makybe_Diva December 2, 2020 9:35 PM GMT
Lol, Danzaa
Report Lifter December 2, 2020 9:35 PM GMT
Yup!
Report five leaves left December 2, 2020 9:35 PM GMT
When Mo is shown his sm stats shoot up. Hopefully it won't be too late..
Report keano712 December 2, 2020 9:36 PM GMT
yep lifter, desperate to win, seems very keen for someone thats scared of everything Grin
Report Makybe_Diva December 2, 2020 9:37 PM GMT
Mo is hilarious.
Report Lifter December 2, 2020 9:37 PM GMT

Dec 2, 2020 -- 3:36PM, keano712 wrote:


yep lifter, desperate to win, seems very keen for someone thats scared of everything


My thoughts exactly, Keano.. funny that

Report five leaves left December 2, 2020 9:42 PM GMT
Mo LaughLaugh
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 2, 2020 9:42 PM GMT
Evening all checking the restrictions out pissed.
Report mecca December 2, 2020 9:42 PM GMT
I had no idea who AJ was until this.. googled him and he's from Stoke on Trent..

He doesn't sound like any Stokeys that I've met...

Fit mrs though
Report Makybe_Diva December 2, 2020 9:45 PM GMT
I feel so sorry for those insects getting squashed.
Report Makybe_Diva December 2, 2020 9:46 PM GMT
This is a hard trial.
Report Makybe_Diva December 2, 2020 9:49 PM GMT
Mo leapt from his chair Laugh
Report Scamp the man December 2, 2020 9:52 PM GMT
Aj's brother is Curtis who was on love island a couple of years back ...bit of useless info for you
Report Danzaa December 2, 2020 9:57 PM GMT
Spoiler up
Report Makybe_Diva December 2, 2020 9:58 PM GMT
Thanks, Danzaa. Back soon.
Report Splinun1 December 2, 2020 9:58 PM GMT
Thanks Danzaa, Sterling job
Report keano712 December 2, 2020 9:59 PM GMT
where?
Report Splinun1 December 2, 2020 10:02 PM GMT
Tellystats
Report Splinun1 December 2, 2020 10:02 PM GMT
Danzaa is the owner of the site, very helpful
Report keano712 December 2, 2020 10:03 PM GMT
that will make winning a fiver off my missus easier Laugh
Report Splinun1 December 2, 2020 10:05 PM GMT
Laugh
Report r1hooligan. December 2, 2020 10:09 PM GMT
Jordan is gonna run away with this now, odds only heading one way now!! Free money everyone!!
Report Makybe_Diva December 2, 2020 10:10 PM GMT
Mo and AJ look quite happy to be leaving.
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 2, 2020 10:20 PM GMT
Well done winners nice to see new faces on here
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 2, 2020 10:20 PM GMT
Well done winners nice to see new faces on here
Report Capt__F December 2, 2020 10:23 PM GMT
for me Jordan played a game right from start
Gio nice but dull

how can chirpy Shane and b lister Vermin be the outsiders ?
Report Makybe_Diva December 2, 2020 10:25 PM GMT
I’ll miss this when it’s finished. I thought I’d hate it.
Report Lifter December 2, 2020 10:26 PM GMT

Dec 2, 2020 -- 4:25PM, Makybe_Diva wrote:


I’ll miss this when it’s finished. I thought I’d hate it.


You've been on a great journey. Deff my winner Cool

Report keano712 December 2, 2020 10:27 PM GMT
one of the top two going tomorrow would shake the market up
Report Splinun1 December 2, 2020 10:30 PM GMT
Don’t get it either. Market should be flipped IMO. Shane and Vernon final would be glorious for the books sake but also feel like the two of them deserve it.

Keano, nobody going out tomorrow as far as I know, show is only 1 hour long.
Report the whizz kids December 2, 2020 10:31 PM GMT
Gio is bound to get a good tv ending, she's not been shown much in the last couple of days. She will go short, I've just lumped more on between 3.2 and 4.3
Report Splinun1 December 2, 2020 10:31 PM GMT
Yes J.O been on here for ages watching the regs and following from afar, thought I’d add my input.
Report Lifter December 2, 2020 10:32 PM GMT
Thing is, both the top 2 are smashing social media. So I guess thats what the market is using as a marker
Report timbuctooth December 2, 2020 10:32 PM GMT
Given the accuracy of the money over the last week. is it all beginning to look a bit ominous for us Shane backers?
Report Lifter December 2, 2020 10:33 PM GMT
I didn't watch the vote off - was Shane a "maybe"?
Report Cider December 2, 2020 10:33 PM GMT
There's undoubtedly informed money in the market. It's not infallible, but oppose it with eyes wide open.
Report Splinun1 December 2, 2020 10:34 PM GMT
Nope, just called AJ 2nd and Mo was last no ICBY to any others.
Report Lifter December 2, 2020 10:35 PM GMT

Dec 2, 2020 -- 4:34PM, Splinun1 wrote:


Nope, just called AJ 2nd and Mo was last no ICBY to any others.


Thanks! Was wondering why Shanes price was drifting out

Report Splinun1 December 2, 2020 10:36 PM GMT
Think this market is clean IMO. Last year eliminations were propper dodge. Maybe TBTB are keeping a closer eye on information or that new setting has made the leaks tighter.
Report keano712 December 2, 2020 10:36 PM GMT
shanes price went out initially last night too, ive got gio covered, but still shane as my big winner,
Report timbuctooth December 2, 2020 10:37 PM GMT
I`d like to echo JOT`s welcome to all the non-regs; hope you`ve enjoyed it, don`t be strangers, as Specials is the easiest money in the betting world. Nice friendly forum, too!
Report Splinun1 December 2, 2020 10:38 PM GMT
Cheers Tim Cool
Report keano712 December 2, 2020 10:38 PM GMT
jordan is a loser, my thinking has always been shane was more likely to pick up the evictees votes than the likes of jordan, so even with some educated money on the votes cast so far he had a good chance, plus the fact i think he should be fave anyway Laugh
Report keano712 December 2, 2020 10:44 PM GMT
shane wins me a nice few quid, and its only the prices thats stopping me backing him even more, the whole if it seems to good to be true adage.
Report Makybe_Diva December 2, 2020 10:45 PM GMT

Dec 2, 2020 -- 4:26PM, Lifter wrote:


Dec  2, 2020 -- 11:25PM, Makybe_Diva wrote:I’ll miss this when it’s finished. I thought I’d hate it.You've been on a great journey. Deff my winner


Aww, Lifter Love

Report Makybe_Diva December 2, 2020 10:47 PM GMT
I think Vernon will win.

Good night all Love
Report Lifter December 2, 2020 10:48 PM GMT
Night night Love
Report Splinun1 December 2, 2020 10:50 PM GMT
That’s it, two more left. DOI next though this forum dies normally in Jan?
Report timbuctooth December 2, 2020 10:59 PM GMT
We have the Christmas No 1 market, just getting going now, which usually provides plenty of fun, with much informed debate on here, and the Eurovision market`s up. Strictly and SPOTY are well underway, but still some fun to be had in both of those.
Report armagnac December 2, 2020 11:11 PM GMT
im with cider, ive spent every day watching this market like a hawk apart from today. looks proper bent and predict they leave in market order.
hoping to be proven wrong but its way out of kilter for me, regarding sm scoring and who the campmates want to win.
also shanes price has been a total joke for two weeks, hes made the show pretty much. if he leaves in 4th like the market suggests that is just so wrong and its game over. all trust gone in market.

i could take shane only coming 3rd to gio and jordan but if he dont beat vernon then thats horsesh1te and the market knew !!!
Report the whizz kids December 2, 2020 11:12 PM GMT
She's only gone and done it again, voted for Jordan so my 5 votes for Gio counts for nothingLaughLaugh
Report LendUsAFiver December 2, 2020 11:13 PM GMT
Several grand moved Mo's odds in early taking him down to 10/1 from 22/1! Someone lost a few quid there.
Report keano712 December 2, 2020 11:16 PM GMT
agree with you army, shanes price contantly out of line without some knowledge, deserved to drift when it looked like the AJ thing might escalate, but as a whole hes done everything id hoped for as a backer and more
Report LendUsAFiver December 2, 2020 11:20 PM GMT
MArket looks right with Shane. Every other post is "Why's shane still in?" "It should have been shane gone". The millennials just don't get that old cheeky humour.
Report Capt__F December 2, 2020 11:21 PM GMT
dont underestimate The Nolans
Report the whizz kids December 2, 2020 11:32 PM GMT
there has definitely been some inside trading going on by the way some of the markets have moved but the market has been so thin that even £500 can move anyone in a few ticks.
Report Lifter December 2, 2020 11:35 PM GMT
I don't necessarily think inside money is moving the market. It just mirrors twitter popularity.
Report Lifter December 2, 2020 11:36 PM GMT
The evictions have also been fairly easy to predict. Army got most of them bang on
Report keano712 December 2, 2020 11:39 PM GMT
As you say lifter, shanes fans would def be older, although they may have twitter, alot less likely to engage quite so much in it, i hope theyve all got the app though LaughLaugh
Report timbuctooth December 2, 2020 11:39 PM GMT
The problem is that not only has the market got every eviction right, it`s done so with extreme confidence. This isn`t normal in Specials
Report keano712 December 2, 2020 11:41 PM GMT
they got the ruthie wrong tbf
Report keano712 December 2, 2020 11:43 PM GMT
she was massive odds on when hollie went
Report Lifter December 2, 2020 11:47 PM GMT
I have to say, it is suspicious just how far ahead in the odds both Jordan and Gio are. Vernon 9s and Shane 15s
Report armagnac December 2, 2020 11:57 PM GMT
im gonna contradict myself now and say im still confident GI wins, my gut still has a shane and gio final with shane losing to an anti vote.
i hope im wrong about the market, but it really needs to get the next one wrong otherwise its another confidence blow
Report the whizz kids December 3, 2020 12:01 AM GMT
Army, Tom Fletcher only has 1.2M followers on TwitterExcitedExcited
Report timbuctooth December 3, 2020 12:02 AM GMT
keano, you`re kinda right, but that`s not the whole story, as we can see from horse`s excellent `Pricewatch` thread;

`...Hollie traded between 2.2s and 1.7s most of yesterday and was 1.8s just as the show was about to start. She stayed odds on until suddenly at 9:28pm she went as high as 4. Lowest price matched was 1.61 (+£4 at 1.31) with LPM 3.1
Ruthie 2.8 - 3.5 pre show but suddenly at 9:28pm she went odds on. Highest matched was 8.4, lowest 1.49, LPM 1.8...`
Report keano712 December 3, 2020 12:07 AM GMT
yer tim, as i said at the time ruthie was also matched at 1000 on the outright market on the night too,but was backed again at as low as 120 after the eviction but settled around 300
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 12:08 AM GMT
ive been checking all there twitter pages after they get saved, Gio has the most likes every time by a long way. into the thousands, the rest are just hundreds.

tbh the regs know im not a massive twitter fan, although i keep an eye on dans twitter live stats cos he's good at what he does. i prefer fb as it does get some of the older demographic.
as an example my parents are all over fb but ive never heard them mention twitter once and there in there 70's

i use my gut more than anything tbh lol
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 12:10 AM GMT
but whizz i forget to say, toms fans did help dougie win..thats a certainty Wink
Report know all December 3, 2020 12:14 AM GMT
shane has made the show to be fair to him he has surprised me and puzzled why he is a big price so is Vernon, so someone knows or we are being set up, the final last year we had a surprise and are we about to see the same the professional multi voting professional teams can turn a result make no mistake where there is this amount of money at stake anything can be manipulated on apps if you understand how it all works, jordan is clear winner but the final is where it happens and lets see how it pans out, fascinating final ahead
Report bardo December 3, 2020 12:26 AM GMT
Couple of "who do you want to win" polls I've found online, starting with The Sun

44.3% Giovanna
24.7% Jordan
16.5% Vernon
14.6% Shane

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tv/13144715/im-a-celebrity-2020-winner-odds-predictions/

Same poll on SuperTV's Twitter

44.2% Giovanna
32.7% Jordan
15.6% Vernon
7.5% Shane

https://twitter.com/superTV247/status/1334259107059142656

its uncanny how close the data is in all 3 polls

Here is another one just to reinforce what public opinion currently is

https://twitter.com/search?q=im%20a%20celebrity%20poll&src=typeahead_click&f=live

The polls suggest that ...

Giovanna will win .. Jordan will be 2nd .... Vernon 3rd and Shane way back in 4th
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 12:30 AM GMT
i suggest that everyone listens again to AJ's reasons for GI winning, that was a special moment for me. one that would of gained a ton of new votes/supporters that may of been on the fence.
if the market is bent, you may well see a flip/flop tomorrow as the votes come in.
just a prediction
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 12:32 AM GMT
great work bardo, very interesting Cool
Report bardo December 3, 2020 12:44 AM GMT
The fact that you have 3 separate polls with almost identical data suggests they aren't going to be too far wrong ...the sample is about 900 people which is a decent enough gauge of who is really popular

I had been thinking that Vernon Kay was the dark horse and he was by far my biggest green

But on seeing these polls  I've readjusted my position a good deal,  and Im now balls deep on Giovanna !
Report Lifter December 3, 2020 12:48 AM GMT
What were the polls saying last year? Hmm I'll have to have a look
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 12:50 AM GMT
i'd also add if any of the runners numbers are underestimated on sm its Gi's, simply coz she is not entertaining and seen by many as nice but dull. which makes those numbers even more interesting.
the loud sm mob always rave and shout about the entertaining ones
Report the whizz kids December 3, 2020 12:59 AM GMT
Most women are saying I would like Jordan/Shane/Vernon to win BUT i'm voting for Gio, thats what women do. Thats why we dont understand them.
Report bardo December 3, 2020 1:06 AM GMT
also ... as the only woman left she has a huge advantage

i think Im a celeb is far more popular among the female population

And... of the last 5 series , 4 have been won by women
Report Lifter December 3, 2020 1:09 AM GMT

Dec 2, 2020 -- 6:59PM, the whizz kids wrote:


Most women are saying I would like Jordan/Shane/Vernon to win BUT i'm voting for Gio, thats what women do. Thats why we dont understand them.


LaughLaughLaugh

Report Lifter December 3, 2020 1:10 AM GMT
But will production stitch her up so they get a king? Many of her backers would flip to Jord in an instant
Report cool_hand_luke December 3, 2020 1:17 AM GMT
The markets been almost pin point accurate throughout, only reversal being when Victoria and Bev mentioned together in an elimination result, all others have gone to script. Script, that's exactly what this is, we are all aware that those who collect the phone data play this market and no doubt are cleaning up (Far easier to control in Wales that Australia). If you follow the money you should be miles in front. Shane just cant recover from  the negative editing and duplicitous set ups,  E.G when they edited friction between him and AJ and he was instantly with him next day as they craved a heated exchange,  if this was not suspicious enough he then mentioned Jessica only getting one star and that the public will pick her for trials (correct assumption), low and behold he gets the trial alongside her next night (notice the pattern yet). I haven't sided with him but feel he has been set up. He may make the Final alongside Jordan and Giovanna if they want to make it look like the two boys are against Giovanna, because Vernon wont offer that dimension. The only question is did they set Jordon up as early favorite to clean up on Giovanna late or edit Shane to ensure he doesn't challenge their selection (Giovanna or Jordon). Thoughts?
Report bardo December 3, 2020 1:38 AM GMT
it is very fishy isn't it ..
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 3, 2020 12:41 PM GMT
Hang on for a sec.  The market moves got it wrong in 3 of the 5 eliminations.  Two odds on faves beaten.  Hardly fishy.  I thought the fishy comment was referring to The Sun poll.
Report timbuctooth December 3, 2020 2:10 PM GMT
Three out of five wrong?
Without being told by the market, most of us wouldn`t have been able to choose between any number of them, with Hollie, Ruthie, Russel, AJ, Jessica and Victoria all likely leavers. Yet all day `they` had Hollie odds-on fav for 1st elim, until they saw in the last few minutes that it was getting a bit close with Ruthie, so covered themselves quickly. Others, seeing this, then drove Ruthie to be a false fav. Sure enough, though, they knew enough for it to be Ruthie who duly left second. As short fav.

I`m guessing you`re counting Vic and Bev as the other two wrong ones? Many bookies still have Bev as third out, settleing it quickly, going on what A+D said, but Vic was then interviewed first, which in all previous double elims, was done by the first out of the two. That Vic was actually third out, not Bev, was later confirmed by ITV, and the fact that many bookies haven`t re-settled is a mistake on their part, one that other bookies have since rectified.
Report timbuctooth December 3, 2020 2:11 PM GMT
^^^settling
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 3, 2020 2:43 PM GMT
Nah was going on Russell who drifted.  AJ was clear 2nd fave and the one for sustained money and wasn't b2.  Bev was 3rd out according to the shows Twitter feed and was announced next out live.  Although agree it's not clear.  You are talking utter BS about the late money for Ruth.  I backed Ruth 24 hours earlier.  It was a sign the market was clean.  She was a virtual certainty for the 2nd elim so hardly anything suspect there.
Report timbuctooth December 3, 2020 3:09 PM GMT
I suggest you read horse`s excellent `Pricewatch` thread, as you`re mistaken. Russell was clear fav all day, never went odds-against. The Ruth money I referred to was for the first elim, when she frightened the insiders by closing the gap, late on. Sure enough, this told them who should be odds-on fav for second elim, and she was, and she went.
No boll0x from me, all confirmed by Pricewatch.
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 3:10 PM GMT
bookies never lie Mischief
Report timbuctooth December 3, 2020 3:12 PM GMT
Never to their clients, maybe to the taxman!

https://www.itv.com/imacelebrity/articles/victoria-is-the-third-celeb-to-leave-the-castle
Report timbuctooth December 3, 2020 3:18 PM GMT
I`d like to rephrase that^^^; I don`t actually lie to the tax man either, he doesn`t know I exist.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 3, 2020 3:40 PM GMT
Russell was 1.7-1.8 at the death.  He was 1.4 - 1.5 most of the day.  In a market with mebbe £10-£15k matched in total, if there were insiders he'd have shortened.  I suggest you read my post again.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 5, 2020 11:33 AM GMT
I've been thinking about this and I don't think anyone has access to live results.  But there is every chance someone has access to previous show results.  That would explain the Ruthie money for the first elimination (no previous eliminations to go on) and could explain away why AJ was backed into 2/1 for the 5th elimination.  He may have been below Russell and Jess in the vote the previous day.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 5, 2020 11:38 AM GMT
It also explains why Noel was evicted first at 9/1 in 2018, and the market fave went in every subsequent elimination.  Right up until the final in 2019.  That doesn't explain that shock result though.  Perhaps Andy had been winning the previous rounds?
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