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armagnac
27 Nov 20 18:58
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 2,578 | Blogger: armagnac's blog
This morning fb posted pictures of all 12 campmates, which has now been up over 10 hours. you can use an emoji as a way of expressing your feelings towards a particular person.
the most common are likes, loves and angry which is what i'll be using here, its basically a type of poll if you use the data correctly.
the strongest emoji of all is the love one, its pretty much the equivalent of voting for someone. likes are a strong indicator but loves are the powerhouse tell.

so ive just been through each one and the stats are:

Shane 203 loves 625 likes 61 angry
Gio 156 loves 225 likes 1 angry
Jordan 104 loves 162 likes 4 angry
Jess 68 loves 121 likes 0 angry
Vernon 67 loves 147 likes 1 angry
AJ 65 loves 221 likes 40 angry
Mo 64 loves 139 likes 0 angry
Russell 43 loves 105 likes 1 angry
Bev 39 loves 127 likes 15 angry
Hollie 34 loves 107 likes 1 angry
Ruthie 32 loves 87 likes 2 angry
Vic 24 loves 95 likes 12 angry
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Report Makybe_Diva November 27, 2020 7:17 PM GMT
That’s interesting, Army.
Report armagnac November 27, 2020 7:22 PM GMT
the numbers are not huge but i do tend to believe there a strong gage of public sentiment up until last nights edit and my current book represents what the numbers are saying.
they express my feelings on here that Jordan is a weak fav now and treading water, with his samey act after a decent 1st week. also that Gio is a very strong runner in this.
i was surprised that shane has maintained all his core vote by the looks of it, hence my turnaround on him this morning after seeing the early numbers coming in.

10/1 for a national treasure who's really not done that much wrong till this point is pretty insane tbf
i wouldn't put anyone off having a few bob
obviously tonight is a big night and he could blow it or come out this spat with AJ looking bad but at the odds its worth the gamble.
end of the day AJ is no saint anyway and Shanes core vote looks very strong and won't desert him over something trivial.
Report armagnac November 27, 2020 7:23 PM GMT
yes MD its been a very reliable indicator over the years
Report Lifter November 27, 2020 7:24 PM GMT
Interesting. Fully expected Gio and Jordan to dominate it. Shane will attract even more of the casuals and those who tune into the final too

Should be fav really
Report armagnac November 27, 2020 7:27 PM GMT
he needs to behave lifter, if he does he p1sses in imo
alfie is a popular boy Wink
Report timbuctooth November 27, 2020 7:29 PM GMT
Should have been fav since Day 1, including during the ridiculously overwrought reaction to that nothingness with AJ
Report J.O.TOBIN. November 27, 2020 7:39 PM GMT
To avoid any confusion army is not my alter egoCool
Report bearcub November 27, 2020 7:44 PM GMT
Stealing this Cool
Report bearcub November 27, 2020 7:45 PM GMT
I've already got 2 likes Cool
Report armagnac November 27, 2020 7:50 PM GMT
Grin
Report five leaves left November 27, 2020 10:40 PM GMT
FB not VicsLove audience
Report armagnac November 27, 2020 11:16 PM GMT
biggest surprise for me, shes been good
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 12:23 AM GMT
the sample size wasn't amazing here, but considering shane went from strength to strength in the edit after this scoring, it really dont give you much faith in facebook or any sm scoring does it ?

Shane 203 loves 625 likes 61 angry
Gio 156 loves 225 likes 1 angry
Jordan 104 loves 162 likes 4 angry
Jess 68 loves 121 likes 0 angry
Vernon 67 loves 147 likes 1 angry
AJ 65 loves 221 likes 40 angry
Mo 64 loves 139 likes 0 angry
Russell 43 loves 105 likes 1 angry
Bev 39 loves 127 likes 15 angry
Hollie 34 loves 107 likes 1 angry
Ruthie 32 loves 87 likes 2 angry
Vic 24 loves 95 likes 12 angry
Report bardo December 4, 2020 9:16 AM GMT
their top 3  poll correlates exactly with all the others ...

Please let it be so !

https://twitter.com/TellyStats
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 9:20 AM GMT
good idea to keep any polls found on this thread so we can find them easier
Report bardo December 4, 2020 9:23 AM GMT
scroll down for another one here with 588 votes

the exact same result comes in again every time... which gives me more confidence that Gio will get over the line

https://twitter.com/ShowbizSecrets/with_replies
Report bardo December 4, 2020 9:28 AM GMT
The question is this ... who do you think ITV want for the win ?

Would they prefer BBC Radio DJ Jordan or a lovely home counties Mummy type

My guess is that they would rather Gio win .. because they will be able to offer her some kids show or something
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 9:32 AM GMT
well lorraine just said for a 2nd time she tipped Gio at start in the IAC segment Laugh
its obvious they want Gio, she'd be a massive catch for daytime tv with her fanbase of young mums sat at home. massive ratings win
jordan offers nothing
Report bardo December 4, 2020 9:32 AM GMT
Giovannas last 4 posts on Instagram have over a million likes combined

one of them have 716 K likes alone !

she has the female/ mum vote...the McFly vote ..plus whatever amount of casual viewers who have taken her

really hope the whole girl power thing is working for her tonight
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 9:34 AM GMT
manchild act has got tiresome to some im reading this morning but vern is picking up most of those votes
if the market wasn't bent i'd say it was a Gio/vern final
Report bardo December 4, 2020 9:37 AM GMT
do we know what are the historical voting figures for Im a celeb ?

Normally how many total votes are cast in a final ?

do we know how many votes recent past winners got to get over the line ?
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 9:46 AM GMT
bear will know this, i think the totals are posted on the final threads maybe ?
you'd have to find them on here or past posts of tellymix
not really sure
Report bardo December 4, 2020 10:57 AM GMT
On the basis of what we have been so far this series ... I think later on tonight  it will be pretty evident from where the money and the odds are going who is going to come out on top
Report the whizz kids December 4, 2020 11:17 AM GMT
Going by the Twitter polls and most have at least 100 votes, Gi is winning most of them with some by a large margin. The ones Jordan are winning are so close. Veron is miles behind in most. Gio looks value at 2.3 if it's to be a coin flip, personally I think she's better than a coin flip and jsuts edges it. I won't be backing any more as all my bets are between 5.0 and 3.2 and not laying off as i'm going for a big payday.
Report bardo December 4, 2020 11:32 AM GMT
Plus the fact that almost all the twitter polls I've seen with 100 plus people sampled seem to correlate  with the figures below

Gio seems to always get 45/ 49 %

Jordan seems to get 32/ 35 %

Vernon getting 15/ 20  %

I reckon that Im a celebs core audience is at least two thirds female then that also  gives her the edge
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 12:35 PM GMT
just looking at tom and tess's insta pages, and comparing

plenty of stats to compare if you look through the pic/vids etc

the two obvious ones are, tom has 1.9m followers compared to tess's 644k

the other is tess put up a vid of vernon 19 hours ago doing cyclone and its got nearly 104,000 views
whereas tom put up a vid of Gi doing the cyclone 13 hours ago and its got over 271,000 views

.
https://www.instagram.com/tomfletcher/?hl=en

.
https://www.instagram.com/p/CIWAlg7gS9W/
Report bardo December 4, 2020 12:50 PM GMT
Ive been looking at twitter IAC winners polls for the last few series..to see how accurate they really are

The good news for Gio backers is that the final Twitter polls were alll spot on ... Jossa, Harry Redknapp, Georgia  , and Vicky P all called correctly
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 12:52 PM GMT
good work Cool fingers crossed
Report bardo December 4, 2020 1:02 PM GMT
Ive been thinking about how smartphones and voting apps and social media in general have completely altered reality TV betting in recent times

It definitely skews things a good deal .. especially compared to how it was ten years ago

The Key question we must ask here is ... in whose favour does it skew things most

because ...Therein lies our winner
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 1:08 PM GMT
i dont think it made much difference tbh if any

the last 3 winners could not be any more different

jossa - appeared vulnerable, not entertering, quite dull

harry - old footy man, funny, up for it

toff - posh as you like, entertaining, fun

go further back its still a wide variety year in year out

who do you think it favours, i cant see it ?
Report bearcub December 4, 2020 1:10 PM GMT
Can you post links of twiiter polls that had Jac beating Andy, All the polls i have with decent numbers have Andy winning.

https://twitter.com/alice_may97/status/1203799187315470336?s=20

https://twitter.com/andrewworr/status/1203796036818481152?s=20

https://twitter.com/ShowbizSecrets/status/1203626245101117440?s=20

https://twitter.com/ticketfactory/status/1203786696942329866?s=20

https://twitter.com/boohoo/status/1203424844995530753?s=20
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 1:14 PM GMT
these shows are nearly always won on whats happened in the house or jungle/castle
of the 3 Gi has done next to nothing, but the big factor is what shes done for others, and this narrative is being told by the people leaving and telling us who they want to win and why.
then the pieces fit as we watch more, yeah shes boring and not funny but in the background you can see her cuddling and reassuring plus the comments to the viewers all starts to add up.

jordan or vernon have not lit us up, jordan not really been overly entertaining.
Report Lifter December 4, 2020 3:54 PM GMT

Dec 4, 2020 -- 7:10AM, bearcub wrote:


Can you post links of twiiter polls that had Jac beating Andy, All the polls i have with decent numbers have Andy winning.https://twitter.com/alice_may97/status/1203799187315470336?s=20https://twitter.com/andrewworr/status/1203796036818481152?s=20https://twitter.com/ShowbizSecrets/status/1203626245101117440?s=20https://twitter.com/ticketfactory/status/1203786696942329866?s=20https://twitter.com/boohoo/status/1203424844995530753?s=20


Yeah I remember at the time Andy was smashing all the polls

Report armagnac December 4, 2020 4:16 PM GMT
totally different dynamic though this time lifter ?

andy was the entertaining one who nearly always top the polls v dull ones
jossa hidden vote won through

this year jordan the entertaining one being topped by the dull one, significant for me
Gi has hidden vote

= Gi p1ssing the win
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 4:20 PM GMT
tom begging for votes


tomfletcher
Verified
I’m up in Scotland with the band but rushing back to watch the final with the kids! If you’ve got a sec to give @mrsgifletcher a vote I will be your best friend forever. Let’s give that castle a Queen!!! Thanks #TeamGi ❤️ ⭐️ 5 FREE votes in the @imacelebrity app
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 4:22 PM GMT
this will get a few hundred thousand likes Grin
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 4:26 PM GMT
didn't realise jordan had an insta page, this was posted 7 hours ago. his latest post
its only got 17,000 likes

.
https://www.instagram.com/p/CIXpDTep5co/

tom's post will probably over take that in under an hour LaughLaugh
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 4, 2020 4:34 PM GMT
Just checked twitter live on tellystats for last year Andy was miles ahead
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 4:41 PM GMT
36mins it took toms post to overtake jordans from 7 hours ago
Report bardo December 4, 2020 4:43 PM GMT
Ive been checking loads of different polls on twitter and on local newspapers online...

Giovanna is definitely more popular in the south ... definitely noticed a big north / south divide with the 2 northern lads being much more popular up there obviously

Anyway having looked at 30 different polls from a good cross section of  twitter feeds.,plus local newspaper sites from a variety of locations ...

here's the aggregate results of what I've found

total number of votes from 30 different who do you want to win polls  was 8151 people  which is a very decent sample size

Giovanna to win 42.22 %

Jordan to win 33.84 %

Vernon 23.93 %

its going to be close. !
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 4:43 PM GMT
ladbaby's wife is also massively behind Gi, if you click on the picture of her top left it takes you to a video


.
https://www.instagram.com/stories/ladbabymum/2456271288617820846/?hl=en
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 4:47 PM GMT
rosie ramsey also plugging Gi

.
https://www.instagram.com/stories/rosemarinoramsey/2456247477603627747/?hl=en
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 4:48 PM GMT
i just dont see how jordan wins
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 4:49 PM GMT
the endorsements Gi has from mega celebrity mums is off the scale
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 4, 2020 4:58 PM GMT
Ladbabys wife and Rosie RamseyAngryAngryAngry. You missed out Gazzas 2nd cousin twice removed, and the woman with the funny eye.
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 5:05 PM GMT
better than having jordan's local chippy with a poster in the window
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 5:08 PM GMT
Gi is the cert of the year and after that ive got the biggest cert ive ever seen in my illustrious career, looks like a fat turkey in army's house this year
Report Lifter December 4, 2020 5:09 PM GMT
Spill the beans Wink
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 5:10 PM GMT
those ladbabys are so fame hungry there'll be touting Gi as far as space to have a slice of the action
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 5:11 PM GMT
there'll be a thread later lifter
Report the whizz kids December 4, 2020 5:13 PM GMT
Big move on Gio in the last hour. 2.5 into now Fav.
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 5:14 PM GMT
yeah ladbabys lot love a gamble
Report bardo December 4, 2020 5:18 PM GMT
Jordans price coming in a few clicks  !!

Gio now the favourite !!Laugh
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 5:20 PM GMT
what's the max we can withdraw so it goes straight into your bank without waiting a day or two ?
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 5:30 PM GMT
im new to insta didn't realise there was stories, been following emma's all week and wondered why she hadn't said anything.
if you click the picture of emma at the top, theres a video of her and matt watching celeb cheering on Gi

.
https://www.instagram.com/emmawillisofficial/?hl=en
Report bardo December 4, 2020 5:33 PM GMT
speaking of Instagram isn't a comfort to know that Gio has 1.6 million followers  !
Report bearcub December 4, 2020 5:37 PM GMT

Dec 4, 2020 -- 11:20AM, armagnac wrote:


what's the max we can withdraw so it goes straight into your bank without waiting a day or two ?


Have you never withdrawn before ?  Sad

Report armagnac December 4, 2020 5:41 PM GMT
last time i bet on something big here was last christmas, rules seem to change
its 2k in other places
Report bardo December 4, 2020 5:47 PM GMT
the market really moving in Giovannas favour .... what do you reckon ?
Report Lifter December 4, 2020 5:50 PM GMT
Corrr.. what a plunge Shocked
Report Lifter December 4, 2020 5:50 PM GMT
Spot on though i think
Report bardo December 4, 2020 5:51 PM GMT
insiders ?
Report Lifter December 4, 2020 5:53 PM GMT
Well, the evidence has her miles ahead, so she's a worthy fav, but maybe
Report the whizz kids December 4, 2020 6:51 PM GMT

Dec 4, 2020 -- 11:20AM, armagnac wrote:


what's the max we can withdraw so it goes straight into your bank without waiting a day or two ?


I think it's £300 but I'm not 100% sure.

Report Splinun1 December 4, 2020 6:51 PM GMT
Agreed that Gio is way ahead in polls, would be a surprise to not win. Don’t see Jordan winning now to be fair unless he picks up a lot of Vernons votes if he gets 3rd.

Vernon has more ‘I want to win’ commoners on all the recent Instagram and FB posts but polls are way off for him. Is there skullduggery with the polls. I know domes been driving his price down for a week now. If Jordan goes 1st then surely they naturally transfer over to Vernon.

Casuals enter play tonight too, too little too late IMO but will be fascinating to see how this all plays out.
Report Splinun1 December 4, 2020 6:52 PM GMT
*someones
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 7:22 PM GMT
im sure its more than that whiz, thanks anyway

Gi walks it, 100% certain
Report Splinun1 December 4, 2020 8:10 PM GMT
I took out just over £350 last week and had to wait a day, PayPal was instant with the same amount though.
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 8:14 PM GMT
cheers splin
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