Eurovision 2021 winner market now up and running.

Eurojury votes from The Netherlands:

Meet this year’s jury members:

- Ben Cramer – Represented The Netherlands at the 1973 Eurovision Song Contest with “De oude muzikant”
- Marjon Keller (Frizzle Sizzle) – Represented The Netherlands at the 1986 Eurovision Song Contest with “Alles heeft ritme”
- Ralf Mackenbach – Winner of the 2009 Junior Eurovision Song Contest
- Mylene & Rosanne – Represented The Netherlands at the 2013 Junior Eurovision Song Contest with “Double Me”
- Shalisa – Represented The Netherlands at the 2015 Junior Eurovision Song Contest with “Million Lights”
- FOURCE – Represented The Netherlands at the 2017 Junior Eurovision Song Contest with “Love Me”

The Netherlands’ top 10 in a random order (top 3 shown with a *):

Greece
Austria
Portugal
* France
Iceland
Romania
Israel
Bulgaria
* Switzerland
* Malta

Eurojury votes from Luxembourg:

Meet this year’s jury members:

- Monique Melsen – Represented Luxembourg at the 1971 Eurovision Song Contest with “Pomme, pomme, pomme”
- Marion Welter – Represented Luxembourg at the 1992 Eurovision Song Contest with “Sou fräi”
- Jimmy Martin – Represented Luxembourg at the 1993 Eurovision Song Contest as part of Modern Times
- Christian Jacob – Conductor at the 1992 Eurovision Song Contest

Luxembourg’s top 10 in a random order (top 3 shown with a *):

Switzerland
Sweden
* Spain
Belgium
Portugal
* Israel
France
Ukraine
Croatia
* Malta

After 40 Eurojury votes the medal table stands as follows:

Country        Top 3    1 – 7

Malta    14    16
Switzerland    12    14
France    11    13
Israel    10    14
Italy    10    11
Iceland    9    14
Sweden    6    15
Cyprus    6    9
Finland    4    7
Germany    4    7
Romania    3    13
Azerbaijan    3    6
Slovenia    3    6
Spain    3    6
Norway    3    5
Bulgaria    2    14
Ukraine    2    9
Lithuania    2    5
Austria    2    4
Croatia    2    4
Portugal    1    11
Ireland    1    9
Greece    1    8
Estonia    1    7
Russia    1    4
The Netherlands    1    4
San Marino    1    3
North Macedonia    1    2
United Kingdom    1    2
Australia    0    5
Georgia    0    5
Belgium    0    4
Latvia    0    4
Serbia    0    4
Czech Republic    0    3
Albania    0    1
Denmark    0    1
Moldova    0    1
Poland    0    0

Eurojury votes from Spain:

Meet this year’s jury members:

- Melani – Represented Spain at the Junior Eurovision Song Contest 2019 in Gliwice, Poland
- Maika Barbero – Participated in the Spanish national selection for Eurovision 2017

Spain’s top 10 in a random order (top 3 shown with a *):

Sweden
Portugal
United Kingdom
* Switzerland
Croatia
Lithuania
* France
Israel
* Malta
Belgium

Eurojury votes from Kazakhstan:

Meet this year’s jury members:

- Karakat Bashanova – Represented Kazakhstan at the Junior Eurovision Song Contest 2020 with “Forever”
- Yerzhan Maxim – Represented Kazakhstan at the Junior Eurovision Song Contest 2019 with “Armanyńnan qalma”

Kazakhstan’s top 10 in a random order (top 3 shown with a *):

Malta
Ireland
* Belgium
Finland
Sweden
* Cyprus
Russia
Australia
Romania
* France

After 42 Eurojury votes the medal table stands as follows:

Country        Top 3    1 – 7

Malta    15    17
Switzerland    13    14
France    13    13
Israel    10    15
Italy    10    11
Iceland    9    14
Cyprus    7    9
Sweden    6    17
Finland    4    8
Germany    4    7
Romania    3    14
Azerbaijan    3    6
Slovenia    3    6
Spain    3    6
Norway    3    5
Bulgaria    2    14
Ukraine    2    9
Lithuania    2    6
Croatia    2    5
Austria    2    4
Portugal    1    12
Ireland    1    10
Greece    1    8
Estonia    1    7
Belgium    1    5
Russia    1    5
The Netherlands    1    4
San Marino    1    3
United Kingdom    1    3
North Macedonia    1    2
Australia    0    6
Georgia    0    5
Latvia    0    4
Serbia    0    4
Czech Republic    0    3
Albania    0    1
Denmark    0    1
Moldova    0    1
Poland    0    0

Eurojury votes from Belarus:

Meet this year’s jury members:

- Petr Elfimov – Represented Belarus at the 2009 Eurovision Song Contest with “Eyes That Never Lie”
- Aleksandra and Konstantin – Represented Belarus at their Eurovision debut in 2004 with “My Galileo”
- Arina Pehtereva – Represented Belarus at the 2020 Junior Eurovision Song Contest with “Aliens”
- Michael Soul – Participated in Belarus’ selection for Eurovision in 2016 and 2019, and was a backing vocalist for Naviband at Eurovision 2017
- Gunesh – Participated in multiple Belarusian Eurovision selection shows and came 2nd in Turkvision 2013

Belarus’ top 10 in a random order (top 3 shown with a *):

France
Israel
Iceland
Cyprus
Romania
* Ukraine
Slovenia
* Malta
Bulgaria
* Switzerland

Eurojury votes from Belgium:

Meet this year’s jury members:

- Jonas Meukens – Represented Belgium at the 2003 Junior Eurovision Song Contest as part of the band X!NK
- Sarina Cohn – Participated in Belgium’s selection for Eurovision 2011
- Alexandra Deschamps – Participated in Belgium’s selection for Eurovision 2011
- .Fen – Participated in Belgium’s selection for Eurovision 2011
- Olivier Kaye – Participated in Romania’s selection for Eurovision 2019 and was a finalist on The Voice Belgique

Belgium’s top 10 in a random order (top 3 shown with a *):

Switzerland
Israel
United Kingdom
Austria
* Cyprus
Romania
* France
Bulgaria
* Iceland
Malta

After 44 Eurojury votes the medal table stands as follows:

Country        Top 3    1 – 7

Malta    16    18
Switzerland    14    15
France    14    14
Israel    10    17
Iceland    10    15
Italy    10    11
Cyprus    8    10
Sweden    6    17
Finland    4    8
Germany    4    7
Romania    3    16
Ukraine    3    9
Slovenia    3    7
Azerbaijan    3    6
Spain    3    6
Norway    3    5
Bulgaria    2    16
Lithuania    2    6
Austria    2    5
Croatia    2    5
United Kingdom    1    14
Portugal    1    12
Ireland    1    10
Greece    1    8
Estonia    1    7
Belgium    1    5
Russia    1    5
The Netherlands    1    4
San Marino    1    3
North Macedonia    1    2
Australia    0    6
Georgia    0    5
Latvia    0    4
Serbia    0    4
Czech Republic    0    3
Albania    0    1
Denmark    0    1
Moldova    0    1
Poland    0    0

Eurojury votes from Sweden:

Meet this year’s jury members:

- Paris Renita – Backing singer for John Lundvik at Eurovision 2019 and the founder/previous member of The Mamas
- Patrik Jean – Participated in Sweden’s selection for Eurovision 2021
- Tess Merkel – Participated in Sweden’s selection for Eurovision 2021
- Faith Kakembo – Participated in Sweden’s selection for Eurovision 2021
- Malou Prytz – Participated in Sweden’s selection for Eurovision 2019 and 2020
- The Moniker – Participated in Sweden’s selection for Eurovision 2011 and 2012
- Gabriel Forss – Participated in Sweden’s selection for Eurovision 1997 and performed as a backing singer for Charlotte Perrelli at Eurovision 1999
- Britta Bergström – Backing singer for Sweden’s 2004, 2012 and 2014 Eurovision performances, and Belgium 2006

Sweden’s top 10 in a random order (top 3 shown with a *):

The Netherlands
Ireland
Portugal
* Iceland
Israel
* Malta
United Kingdom
Romania
* Switzerland
Bulgaria

Eurojury votes from Poland:

Meet this year’s jury members:

- Patrycja Nowicka (Tulia) – Represented Poland at the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest as part of Tulia
- Dominika Siepka (Tulia) – Represented Poland at the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest as part of Tulia
- Tulia Biczak (Tulia) – Represented Poland at the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest as part of Tulia
- Saszan – Participated in Poland’s selection for Eurovision 2020
- Marek Kaliszuk – Participated in Poland’s selection for Eurovision 2020
- Isabell Otrebus – Participated in Poland’s selection for Eurovision 2018
- Mateusz Szymkowiak – Spokesperson for Poland at Eurovision 2018 and 2019, and host of the 2019 and 2020 Junior Eurovision opening ceremony
- Kuba Kapala – Producer and delegation member who also participated in Poland’s Eurovision selection
- Lidia Kopania – Represented Poland at the 2009 Eurovision Song Contest

Poland’s top 10 in a random order (top 3 shown with a *):

Sweden
Iceland
Israel
Romania
* Switzerland
Lithuania
* Malta
Ukraine
* France
Azerbaijan

After 46 eurojury votes the medal table stands as follows:

Country        Top 3    1 – 7

Malta    18    18
Switzerland    16    15
France    15    14
Iceland    11    16
Israel    10    19
Italy    10    11
Cyprus    8    10
Sweden    6    18
Finland    4    8
Germany    4    7
Romania    3    18
Ukraine    3    10
Azerbaijan    3    7
Slovenia    3    7
Spain    3    6
Norway    3    5
Bulgaria    2    17
Lithuania    2    7
Austria    2    5
Croatia    2    5
United Kingdom    1    15
Portugal    1    13
Ireland    1    11
Greece    1    8
Estonia    1    7
Belgium    1    5
Russia    1    5
The Netherlands    1    5
San Marino    1    3
North Macedonia    1    2
Australia    0    6
Georgia    0    5
Latvia    0    4
Serbia    0    4
Czech Republic    0    3
Albania    0    1
Denmark    0    1
Moldova    0    1
Poland    0    0

Eurojury votes from Italy:

Meet this year’s jury members:

- Vincenzo Cantiello – Winner of the Junior Eurovision Song Contest 2014 in Malta
- Arianna Mereu – Backing singer for Emma at the Eurovision Song Contest 2014 in Copenhagen

Italy’s top 10 in a random order (top shown with a *):

Austria
Cyprus
Switzerland
Iceland
Slovenia
Portugal
* Bulgaria
United Kingdom
* Israel
* Malta

Eurojury votes from Ireland:

Meet this year’s jury members:

- Kenneth Giles – Member of the Irish jury for the Eurovision Song Contest 2018
- Aimee Banks – Represented Ireland on their debut in the Junior Eurovision Song Contest in 2015
- Fiona Harte – Backing singer for Ireland at the Eurovision Song Contest 2019 in Tel Aviv
- Eamonn Toll – Represented Ireland at the Eurovision Song Contest 2000 in Stockholm
- Donna McCaul – Represented Ireland at the Eurovision Song Contest 2005 in Kyiv, Ukraine

Ireland’s top 10 in a random order (top 3 shown with a *):

Bulgaria
United Kingdom
Germany
* Iceland
Israel
San Marino
Sweden
* Switzerland
The Netherlands
* Malta

Eurojury votes from Montenegro:

Meet this year’s jury members:

- Nina Petković – Participated in the Montenegrin selection for the Eurovision Song Contest in 2019

Montenegro’s top 10 in a random order (top 3 shown with a *):

Greece
Georgia
Czech Republic
* Estonia
Finland
Portugal
* Iceland
Croatia
Austria
* Switzerland

After all 49 Eurojury votes the final medal table stands as follows:

Country        Top 3    1 -7

Malta    20    18
Switzerland    18    16
France    15    14
Iceland    13    17
Israel    11    20
Italy    10    11
Cyprus    8    11
Sweden    6    19
Finland    4    9
Germany    4    8
Bulgaria    3    18
Romania    3    18
Ukraine    3    10
Slovenia    3    8
Azerbaijan    3    7
Spain    3    6
Norway    3    5
Austria    2    7
Estonia    2    7
Lithuania    2    7
Croatia    2    6
United Kingdom    1    17
Portugal    1    15
Ireland    1    11
Greece    1    9
The Netherlands    1    6
Belgium    1    5
Russia    1    5
San Marino    1    4
North Macedonia    1    2
Australia    0    6
Georgia    0    6
Czech Republic    0    4
Latvia    0    4
Serbia    0    4
Albania    0    1
Denmark    0    1
Moldova    0    1
Poland    0    0

Here are the actual final placings with points of the jury part of the Eurojury which will be revealed during the course of today. These are the placings and points of the juries before the public votes are added. Full voting and public votes revealed/added and the actual winner will be revealed by Eurovoix at 5pm CET (4pm UK time) today.

39th - Poland - 0 points
38th - Denmark - 2 points
37th - Albania - 4 points
36th -  Moldova - 7 points

35th - Latvia - 11 points
34th - Czech Republic - 12 points
33rd - Serbia - 13 points
32nd - Australia - 16 points

31st - North Macedonia - 17 points
30th - Georgia - 19 points
29th - Russia - 20 points
28th - Belgium - 24 points

27th - San Marino - 29 points
26th - The Netherlands - 31 points
25th - Croatia - 36 points
24th - Ireland - 42 points

23rd - Greece - 44 points
22nd - Norway - 44 points
21st - Spain - 49 points
20th - Estonia - 51 points

19th - Austria - 52 points
18th - Ukraine - 56 points
17th - Azerbaijan - 58 points

16th - Slovenia - 59 points
15th - Lithuania - 60 points
14th - Germany - 68 points

13th - Portugal - 74 points
12th - United Kingdom - 76 points
11th - Finland - 77 points

10th – Romania – 95 points
9th – Bulgaria – 107 points
8th – Cyprus – 123 points
7th – Sweden – 127 points
6th – Italy – 163 points
5th – Iceland – 204 points

4th – Israel – 210 points

3rd – France – 219 points

2nd – Switzerland – 257 points

1st – Malta – 286 points

Malta has won the jury part of Eurojury with 286 points. Will Malta be the overall winner of the Eurojury 2021 after the public votes have been added. The full results will be revealed at 5pm CET (4pm UK time) on Eurovoix.

And the overall winner of the Eurojury 2021 is ............ Malta!

1st Malta - 466 points
2nd Switzerland - 433 points
3rd France - 384 points

The public online votes were as follows:


    Italy – 204 Points
    San Marino – 202 Points
    Malta – 180 Points
    Switzerland – 176 Points
    France – 165 Points
    Russia – 142 Points
    Cyprus – 124 Points
    Bulgaria – 110 Points
    Lithuania – 109 Points
    Iceland – 104 Points
    Romania – 101 Points
    Ukraine – 98 Points
    Finland – 90 Points
    Czech Republic – 74 Points
    Belgium – 73 Points
    Norway – 71 Points
    Ireland – 71 Points
    Greece – 69 Points
    Croatia – 65 Points
    Serbia – 62 Points
    Israel – 61 Points
    Azerbaijan – 54 Points
    Sweden – 53 Points
    Australia – 49 Points
    Moldova – 42 Points
    Denmark – 40 Points
    United Kingdom – 37 Points
    Germany – 31 Points
    The Netherlands – 29 Points
    Latvia – 28 Points
    Spain – 26 Points
    Slovenia – 25 Points
    Portugal – 18 Points
    Albania – 16 Points
    Estonia – 13 Points
    Poland – 11 Points
    Austria – 8 Points
    Georgia – 6 Points
    North Macedonia – 5 Points


See article: https://eurovoix.com/2021/05/07/destiny-wins-the-euro-jury-2021-malta/

OGAE Poll

Malta has won the OGAE Poll 2021

The final club votes has just been revealed and the top 3 countries after all 43 OGAE club votes are as follows:

1. Malta - 363
2. Switzerland - 358
3. France - 318

I know it seems to have gone down like cold sick with these fan polls but couldn't Bulguria be a big challenger on the night? It's certainly a song that will get noticed with the right staging. I could see it doing a Lena or a Conchita Wurst - neither of which were seen as potential winners by traditional Eurovision fans (although many liked Rise Like a Phoenix). Malta seems to me to be trying to be a new TOY but how often is repetition rewarded and the Swiss guy's voice is a bit shrill at the high end and French ballads don't usually win Eurovision even if it's a lovely performance. I can't remember what Italy is like, I'll have to look it up before making some decisions.

Polls schmolls! Always to be ignored, but even more so for ESC; any I`ve ever seen have a truly dismal record, as they`re populated entirely by fanboys, utterly unrepresentative of the average voter, none of whom will have heard any of the songs yet, except perhaps that of their own country. Bulgaria the only one of the market leaders I like too, don`t let schmollsters put you off

From the - https://eurovoix.com/2021/05/07/destiny-wins-the-euro-jury-2021-malta/ - web site

About The Euro Jury 2021
Over 190 jury members feature in this year’s edition of The Euro Jury, including Eurovision winners, past participants, and national finalists. The full results of The Euro Jury will be revealed during the course of May 7.

For the past two years that Eurovision was held, The Euro Jury has correctly identified the winner of Eurovision with both Netta and Duncan Laurence topping the overall leaderboard in The Euro Jury and the Eurovision Song Contest itself. The Euro Jury also correctly identified four out of the top five acts in the final in Tel Aviv.

I know two years hardly a summer makes, but the betting market closely follow the eurovoix result with the first 5 matching the first 6 in the betting on BF:
country / score / bf price
Malta /    466 / 5.2
Switzerland / 433 / 6.0
France / 384 /     4.4
Italy / 367 / 8.4
Iceland / 308 / 21

`...Over 190 jury members feature in this year’s edition of The Euro Jury, including Eurovision winners, past participants, and national finalists. The full results of The Euro Jury will be revealed during the course of May 7...`

As I said, unrepresentative fanboys.

There`s tens, maybe hundreds of ESC polls every year, no surprise that one of them gets it right now and then. As soon as I read `for the past two years`, I knew that would be about the extent of it and, sure enough, seems they were the only two years they picked the winner!

What happened to OGAE? Weren`t they the previous default choice of ESC schmollsters? I remember taking on, big style, that Italian gorilla gimpboy in 2017, who OGAE had home and hosed, very short-priced fav, (I even started a reverse train!), part of which had me checking out OGAE`s record which, as expected, exposed them as charlatan chancers. Is that why they seem to have been replaced by this `EJ` crowd? Because EJ have called the last two correctly? While ignoring all their previous failures? As with all polling companies, shystering at its very best

You're being a bit harsh on eurovoix. In their last 5 polls, a shotlist from the top 6 managed to find the first 2 in all 5 years as well as 4, 3, 5, 5, 4 of the first 6 in those 5 years.

2019
Netherlands – 525 points    1st
Italy – 370 points    2nd
Switzerland – 307 points    4th
Sweden – 264 points    5th   
Cyprus – 193 points    xx
Malta – 174 points    xx

2018
Israel – 393 points    1st
Czech Republic  – 261 points        6th
Bulgaria  – 246 points    xx
France  – 228 points    xx
Cyprus – 204 points    2nd
Estonia  – 203 points    xx

2017
Italy – 401 points    6th
Sweden – 271 points    5th
Belgium – 245 points    4th
Australia – 243 points xx
Portugal – 225 points    1st
Bulgaria – 214 points    2nd

2016
France – 344    6th
Australia – 342    2nd
Spain – 282    xx
Sweden – 264    5th
Ukraine – 263    1st
Russia – 226    3rd


2015
Australia – 214    5th
Sweden – 153    1st
Italy – 146    3rd
Russia – 105    2nd
Albania – 100    xx
Iceland – 91    xx

Good to hear your thoughts Tim. I do have doubts about such polls as they really only tell you what the year-round Eurovision fans like. I'm not even certain that including past participants etc gives a proper picture as inevitably that will have a selection bias in them too. But I do like how they tilt some to over-back tracks that can only appeal to fans - so there's money to be made there. We'll know a lot more about Bulgaria tomorrow - I'm hoping it has some of the appeal of the acoustic performance Victoria did. If the graphics and staging are a bit too cgi clock heavy I'll definitely reconsider. But it does strike me as a song that cuts through in a way many wont. I am very aware that many Eurovision 'experts' really don't rate it at all, so we'll see (a good example is the youtube video from Tellystats). If it has the effect I'm hoping for I could see it drop to 7s after the semi and tighten afterwards. But if not c'est la vie.

I think my favourite songs are Italy and France but I can't see either winning unless a situation develops where all the favourites are very close. It should be noted just how old fashioned the French song is - parts of the pre-chorous remind me of La Boheme a song released in 1965 and it's not as if France hasn't sent great female vocal performances in the past that were largely ignored (Patricia Kaas). And Rock songs have never got over the line and while Måneskin are a good tight band the song is also old fashioned. I see Iceland are getting a lot of praise today but lets face it their song is very niche - they should be no threat whatsoever.

Martin, you make a fair point, but the problem with having the winner in amongst six possibilities is that you then have to back all six, with past performance still being no guarantee that any of their six will win this, or any future, year. Of their six this year, backing at current prices would mean;

Mal - 0.5 pts,
Swi + 0.5 pts, (a 1/12 win)
Fra - 1.5 pts,
Ita + 2.5 pts, (a 5/12 win)
Ice + 5.5 pts, (an 11/12 win)
Isr + 194 pts, well at least that`s more like it!

So, two losers, three pathetically small winners, otherwise you`re looking for a 200 poke to make it worthwhile!


Hi Sekt10ned; please be aware that ESC is by far my worst RTV event, I`m useless at it. My thoughts are entirely coming from a `polls? Schmolls!` basis, having seen how dismal they are throughout my time at Specials. I do understand that some people have mastered the dark art of finding winners from polls/stats/trends and sm stuff, but that`s an awful lot of hard work when instinct does the job fine. Best of luck with Bulgaria tomorrow, but the fact that I like them doesn`t bode well!

An alternative approach would be to just dutch the top two - Malta (5.8) and Switzerland (6.6) at about 5/2 i think - in the last 5 years it's given the winner 3 times and the second twice.

From the eurovoix  data the bet that caught my eye was Israel to qualify from the first semi-final at 1.6. In the  eurovoix poll  Israel came 6th overall, having come 4th with the jury and 21st in the televote. Looking at just the contenders in the first semi final, then they came 2nd behind Malta. They're currently 10th in the BF betting market to qualify.
I'm usually a big priced lots of loser sort of guy, rather than buying money, but I think I'll make an exception with this one.

Bulgaria down to a 11.5 after her first rehearsal (from 23.5 last week) but with Switzerland and France still to rehearse she might slip back a little. Still it's encouraging that there will be more tightening come second rehearsal and the the semi.

Just found time to look at the clip of her rehearsal and thankfully there's no boring cgi clocks like in some of her videos so I'm reasonably content that the song its credible and cuts through. Still puzzles me while the 'experts' really havent taken to it. I'm not saying that it will win but it's mystifying that Iceland is rated a more likely winner

Also caught up with the Swiss video. It's a better performance than I as expecting - more dynamic. He seems to have curbed that off-putting shrillness on the high notes, so he's looking good too come the finals. Getting rid of the piano makes it sufficiently different from Arcade 2019.

I'm very curious to see how France sell such an old fashioned chanson, and it looks like Malta have been hampered a little with all that pink. So really odds should get nice and tight come the night. I've been laying Iceland a little, reduced my Bulgaria and upped Switzerland - I'm only in a little danger with France but can do something about in the coming days. I'm quite happy to let things run for a while.

Looks like the fandom might be catching up a little bit with Bulgaria - currently the rehearsal video on YouTube has 100k views and 1,000 comments that are mostly extremely positive while Switzerland has 110k and 1,500 comments along the same lines. To me I would count them as being in a similar position or advantage tilted to Bulgaria as Switzerland has consistently been popular unlike Bulgaria. I wont be able to gage it really until the semi final, the clips aren't long enough to really give a feel (eg is Switzerland too cold? some on Twitter don't seem to like the staging) but it seems both camps have done a reasonable job. But I'd definitely tip Bulgaria top 4 and Iceland out of the top 4.

Any thoughts on Cyprus?  Easily the catchiest chorus for me although I'm concerned that overall the song is a tad too repetitive.  Good staging based on the clip I've seen - Elena looks less harsh/aloof compared to the official video.  Wondering if this can have a similar charge to Fuego in 2018.  Maybe not win but power through for an e/w win.

I'm laying France (although the odds have shortened since I laid it a month ago - doh!)  We've been here before with them (remember them in 2011?  And even 2016 to a lesser extent) and failing as favourites/fancied runners.

Are we to assume Flo-Rida is not appearing on stage in the show?  Took a hopeful punt on San Marino a while back.  Looking forlorn now!

Any thoughts on Cyprus?  Easily the catchiest chorus for me although I'm concerned that overall the song is a tad too repetitive.  Good staging based on the clip I've seen - Elena looks less harsh/aloof compared to the official video.  Wondering if this can have a similar charge to Fuego in 2018.  Maybe not win but power through for an e/w win.

I'm laying France (although the odds have shortened since I laid it a month ago - doh!)  We've been here before with them (remember them in 2011?  And even 2016 to a lesser extent) and failing as favourites/fancied runners.

Are we to assume Flo-Rida is not appearing on stage in the show?  Took a hopeful punt on San Marino a while back.  Looking forlorn now!

I'm not certain that it will do as well as Fuego but there's always room for a sexy song near the top. Fuego was a bit more current than El Diablo which is a bit early Lady Gaga. Also the quiet bits are a little strange. It can be a top ten song but I have no idea if it will reach the EW places.

I have no clue or opinion about San Marino though - best to check twitter:
eg https://twitter.com/ESCtips_Gavster https://twitter.com/EntertainOdds

I think I have to lay France bit more - it's establishing itself even more of a favourite today but I find it impossible to see it getting a strong enough public vote and being such an old fashioned song it cant be guaranteed to top the jury votes too. It's not the same competition as in the 1990s

Bulgaria is now out to 11, this is the worry when backing an act that the market consensus -based on fan polls - is slightly sour on. That France is so well backed when it hasn't even been rehearsed probably points to how uninformed the market is. It really needs to be seen first.

this was quite a good listen if anyone is interested: https://www.gambling.com/news/listen-gambling-com-s-eurovision-2021-betting-preview-podcast-2530000
what struck me is that this is not as clear a year as 2019 and 18

France - which still hasn't been seen - is now on the drift with Malta back in favourite position. All the other favourites are on the drift, this seems to me to be more volatile than some recent Eurovisions. The main concern is that Malta makes such a good impression on Tuesday that there's a train. The favourite going into the final is usually around 2.8. Presumably tomorrow brings France and Italy...

Sorry my mistake they're practicing today. I apologise for spamming this thread a little with my workings out- more interesting than just fan polls though

Italy were around 10 for 20 mins after their rehearsal but good word has seen them backed down to 7

And now they are bellow 5 which to me seems like the market is desperately grasping for a favourite. I personally like the Italian song a lot as it's the sort of music that I might listen to but it is quite different from what is known to win at Eurovision - although the past few years have seen much more variation. I'm tempted to lay a little as it should drift out again to perhaps 7.

And my obsession Bulgaria is now out to 14, Iceland falling back too, now 12. It will be quite mad if France is a good performance

Forget Iceland; trivial lyrics, nothing tune, dire costumes, beyond dated, Star Trek with Sparklers, trying to be the next `Los del Rio` with the dolphin dancing. Max red

And now France's price crashes - looks like the market is just snapping up each favourite as it goes along. Useful volatility.

Can't help but feel that having two Big 5 countries as Favourites is a laying opportunity. The last time a Big 5 won was 2010, and before that 1997. Italy has had a lot of buzz and high finishes in the past, and their selection process ensures they send high quality songs but not quite sealed the deal, and France seems to often underscore relative to expectations

Yes Iceland was always toast it's just that the market hasnt realised it yet. Those keyboards alone annoy the heck out of me

Certainly Italy will do well but it would have to be a Herculean effort to overcome its genre problem - unless it is so competitive that the winner just squeaks over the line. But that doest often happen. I find it hard as I like Italy and France the best but I do think they are layable. But be warned there is so much praise for France it's hard to ignore the warning

I'm a little sad that Bulgaria is being so pushed aside - Bulgaria or Greece seem to be strong candidates for winning semi 2 (as people seem a little down of the staging of Switzerland) so should be given more recognition. Will France eat away the supposed, possibly imagined, strong jury support for Malta's voice? It could be a really exciting night come the final

perhaps lay Italy, keep France onside?

By the way does anyone know how Israel does in Eurovision when there's troubles with Palestinians?  Is there a protest vote against them? They have a rather niche song that's odds on for qualification. I'd have had it qualifying -just- because of the vocal weirdness but perhaps this makes them more borderline.

On the basis of the "fanboy" vote on the eurovoix I had a good bet on Israel to qualify from the first semi-final at 1.6. I'm not expecting to pick up now, although when Israel won in 2018 (8 May) it was in the middle of the gaza border protests where IDF according to the "Report of the UN Commission of Inquiry on the 2018 protests in the OPT" - Israeli snipers deployed near the separation fence to police the protests referred to as “the Great March of Return”, shot over 6106 demonstrators, killing 183, between 30 March 2018 and 31 December 2018.

Not quite on the same scale of the current flare up though.

In recent times Israel failed to qualify in 2004, 2007, 2011-2015
In none of those years in the preceding two weeks was there any sort of flare up, so presumably it was the songs themselves which led to them failing to qualify. This may well be the first flare up in recent years just prior to Eurovision.

I think it depends for how long the troubles continue. If they come to an end over the weekend there will probably not be an impact. If the IDF goes into Gaza, then that should be a concern.

It's weird how some people are still holding onto Iceland while Switzerland drops like a stone. I still think he will beat Iceland even if it looks like he's having a fit - or maybe early stage Parkinson's - in the rehearsal video.

Not many have warmed to Bulgaria so I consider myself very warned. I did think it would come in again for another lay. Perhaps I'm thinking too much of how the contest has gone in recent years rather than concentrating more on immediate appeal. But I still think Italy falls short and that France has won if it was the early 1990s- much better than some of the dirge that won in that period - but misses out this time (based on all the other great French songs that have done so too).

Been on France since hearing it before their selection process, and it's still my favorite. I think Italy will likely win the public vote, but France should finish higher when the Jury scores are added.

Here are almost 2 minutes of the Switzerland 2nd rehearsal on ESC Arena - not sure  how they get this much - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcADRDNP034
Gives a better perspective, although his movements are somewhat unusual - but surely at 18.0 he's moved out far too much.

I also thought ROXEN of Romania had drifted far too much out to 500 at one point. It's obviously risky, but all it requires is a decent dress rehearsal on Monday for the price to be well under 200.

Yes 18 is too much for Switzerland but Bulgaria could be got at 19 too. I'm not sure how the market can be so confident about France and Italy when there are good arguments against them. Also I dont see Iceland as the best song in semi 2, it's weaker than last year. It's very trappy because they are super tempting odds but maybe the market will never close up again.

Is there potential for a complete outsider to win? possibly. It is a year with no truly clear favourites so there's a lot of supposition. Do I trust a view driven by fan clubs? certainly not. But it's probably more serious money taking a view of Italy and France now. So yes a completely different act may win out - perhaps a Greece if there really is an appetite for a bouncy upbeat song.

Or maybe everyone is driving each other nuts and it will be Malta that takes it after all and there's a massive train behind it on the night - be warned

A big clue will be in the running order for the final.

Cheers MartinK for the Swiss clip. I think sadly it seems a little cold but I'll certainly take some 18

90 seconds of Serbia 2nd rehearsal - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2MZkj2NjDI
These girls really ramp up the energy levels and are outsiders to be considered for a top 10 finish

Another Swiss gem - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vf08C9h2qM
Looks like he's doing all those moves on purpose!!  - from 2:30 in the above

I just looked at a longer clip of Italy from the same account as you first posted and really I dont see the favouritism. I really like the song myself but apart from them being a banging, tight band, what is it that appeals to a Eurovision audience. It's got tonnes of conviction but sounds like 2001-6. Also the new costumes arent as good as the suits they've worn in other performances - they look decidedly 970s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7ZlfraxaFM This shows just how good an act Måneskin are. It's a really attractive band and song and need to be taken seriously. But a couple of questions - do older commentators like them because it recalls all the good bands that used to be popular in the charts fifteen years go? will younger viewers relate to it as they don't seem to with rock these days - look at the (to me dire) lineups of rock festivals like Reading/Leeds these days.
However, what sounds very conventional to me might sound fresh to younger viewers. Will family viewers relate to the song as a 'Eurovision' song? it doesnt fit the convention but recent years have seen unconventional songs win out - unconventional songs that are not in English. Going on the experience of the past a song like this must be opposed at current odds, does a 'pyro curtain' really sway people so much? - that would be like saying Greece's green-screen dancing effects will do. I'm really looking forward to finding out but I know for sure that Måneskin should have a successful future regardless.

This Eurovision is dire imo. Nothing stands out.

You have to play with the cards as they're dealt

Pleased I got on Cyrpus at 32 last week.  The plunge has been good but is it halting now around 14 - is that as far as Elena goes?  Nice run all the same.  Nice to know I can still get on at the start of a train having lost my touch in recent years.

I agree with most of the comments re France and Italy - the Italian song is bang on but is it 'Eurovision'.  Reminds me a bit of Georgia - which had a 90s Britpop/Oasis vibe and got the 12 from the UK judges but was largely unliked.  Italy much better than that but reminiscent of the 15-20 year ago crowd being more into it.

France - classy, but is it right for 2021.

Starting to come back to my thinking where I was in April and that's for Malta to steady the ship and come back for the win from 3rd in the betting like Jamala did in 2016 (after drifting right out to 16 on the day of the final.)

I actually enjoy the fact that we're nearly underway and the winner is still not obvious unlike 2013, 2012, 2019, 2018 (fairly obvious anyway) and 2017.   Been an interesting year - a real mix of genres and, I know it's not going to win but in the last few days I've absolutely been hit between the eyes by Belgium's song.  Took me a few lessons and that's why it won't win but for the people who give it a few goes, I think they'll end up liking it a lot.

Semi final 1 Jury show last night - 50% of scores = interesting analysis using the criteria the jury is supposed to use = https://www.escdaily.com/jury-rehearsal-semi-1-eurovision-2021-vocal-assessment-of-all-the-songs/

There were technical issues which appeared to be centered around earpiece timings for the last 4 acts (Romania, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Malta) all 4 being given the chance to perform again. Only Azerbaijan declined.

Malta apparently smashed it with 4.5 stars on the above web site's assessment, 3.5 stars going to Lithuania, Azerbaijan and  North Macedonia ( apparently A technically difficult song with a lot of high notes and some difficult loops and note-changes ), quite whether thee juries will use the strict criteria or just vote for their mates is another matter entirely.

Okay, time for my overall thoughts before the final. Basically, I'm not changing from my view that France win. It is a favorite of mine, so I'm trying to put any bias to the side. I also listen to the Italy song in the gym, so there's that.

Anyway, can we agree that France win the Jury, or at the very least, get top 3?

If so, then I believe they just need to get a top 4/5 in the public vote. The poll on eurovisionworld has them 1st, which has called 4 out of the last 5 winners (with the other being 2nd). They are currently joint 1st with Malta and Italy on myeurovisonscoreapp.

The question is if the current love represents the general public on Saturday. Now, I doubt they win the public vote, but I feel they have enough to get a top 4, especially with the running order.

Amazing how fickle the Eurovision committee are putting San Marino last just because they have some has been US rapper on stage.

Pathetic.

Which song had the best crowd reception ? From tv it seemed like Malta but maybe not.

The juries' votes will be on tonight's (Friday's) performance, not the live final tomorrow.

And Switzerland had a bit of a mare.

https://twitter.com/rorysalad/status/1395830283941912576

https://twitter.com/TweetMeRyan/status/1395850192012910597

https://twitter.com/KeithMillsD7/status/1395833454395265025

Keith Mills
@KeithMillsD7
Given that this is the jury final, there's no room for a major vocal error, so that's Switzerland effectively dead in the water.
#eurovision
9:06 PM · May 21, 2021·Twitter Web App

Ryan
@TweetMeRyan
Replying to
@MaxxyRainbow
Switzerland just messed up the jury final now though. Tried to make his high note fancy, missed it and tried to  style it out but was messy.
10:13 PM · May 21, 2021·Twitter for iPhone

I thought Switzerland was the closest thing to Arcade this year, but his dancing in the semi-final was ridiculous, which I guess he'll presumably reprise for the edification of televoters tomorrow, and the missed cue plus dodgy high note tonight = not now losing sleep over this entry winning. As always, posting opinions like this is tempting fate, but a screwed up jury performance is, in the end, a screwed up jury performance.

That's the advantage of Iceland dialling in their pre-taped performance: you know they are going to nail it, with no errors, both in the jury final tonight, and tomorrow.

It's deliberately a stylistically laconic peformance, so there was never going to be much in the way of extra Grand Final wattage for them to deliver.

I suppose the other advantage is that it enhances their whole 2020 frontrunner sob story and 2021 last minute covid infection thing.

Add in all the viewers tomorrow night thinking about everyone back home in Husavik cheering on Ja Ja Ding Dong and Fire Saga,

and the fact that you can't even tell it was pre-taped; the live crowd noise for them in the semi was very loud;

and, well, maybe the elves will come out for them tomorrow.

They have quite a good staging too, but it's nothing on Ukraine's. I saw someone describing Ukraine's staging as high art, and it wasn't an exaggeration.

Here's a video someone made on the meaning of Ukraine's song:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9hT-YoKCvM

It's really too sophisticated for Eurovision.

The wiwi bloggs people were asked who won the semi-final in their opinion, and three of the four of them went with Ukraine.

Ukraine literally storyboarded the camera shots for their performance.

Or maybe it was after the semi final jury show. Either way, three of the four of them put Ukraine first.

As for my other pick, well, I can't understand why Norway is at such long odds. It's just a really melodic song, very accessible and immediate, with stand-out staging. It went from 40 to about 25 at one point. Maybe people think it's too cheesy to pick up jury votes, but good music (relatively; in Eurovision terms, good) is good music. It doesn't have to be high art. It sounded to me like Tix nailed tonight's jury final. If I had one tip for a long odds surprise, Norway would be it. I was at least reassured that one of the national newspapers, either the Telegraph or the Times, had Norway as one of their picks to win. Every so often, the build-up misses something, and maybe this is one, or maybe not.

Of the other frontrunners, Italy is a great song. The only question is whether the genre is for winning this year.

I find the French song a typically pretentious boring French song, but it's sung well and may win, the jury vote if not the televote.

And Malta, she is a great singer, there are some great moments in the song, but there are some other moments that underwhelm.

I think you're overreacting to the Switzerland jury performance.
Here is it from the press centre so it won't be the exact sound on the press feed which the jury will be using.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-enolIFcPf4  - around 1:24:50
He tried to really stretch the note, and it didn't quite come off, but to call the entire performance a "mare" is a stretch - a minor drift from 9.4 to 10.5.
It wasn't as though he didn't reach his normal note, he was over ambitious - a little cocky maybe - not ideal, but not out of it either.

It wasn't just the high note messed up, apparently he missed a cue at the beginning of the song.

Two errors in the performance the juries will be voting on.

Most people won't realise tonight that half of the votes are already in as of yesterday, and if he makes his cue tonight and makes his high notes as well, then some people might briefly think, ooh, this has good odds for a punt. But they won't be betting on complete information.

Of course the errors won't drag him down to the UK's bottom feeder destiny, but the drift is now out to 14, and I'm going to be bold and say that Switzerland is no longer a contender to win. Someone said that apparently he is a dancer, has dancing in his repertoire or something, so he'll probably feel that it's imperative to bring out the moves again tonight. This is what the Telegraph says today about his dance moves:

"It’s a dramatic, powerfully delivered ballad, only slightly undercut by the unintentionally amusing contemporary dance moves: flailing arms in a very puffy blouse."

That's not quite how I described them below. He looked effing ridiculous.

If you have money on Switzerland, I wouldn't see it through to the end.

I was reflecting on it this morning, and with the others favs making almost perfect performances any mistakes last night could prove costly so I've already reduced my position on him - but I still have some green on him having averaged 17 earlier - just in case.

Right. That's the point. The point is that there is no runaway favourite this year, at least as far as we can see at the moment. It looks to be a tight contest where the marginal things are going to make the difference. That's a large part of why Ukraine are rising. The difference between their initial music video and their stage presentation is incredible. The song itself doesn't have any particular vulnerable points, any dips like say Israel which has a great ending but terrible lacunas, and if there was one thing I was unsure of before, the repetition, it is solved by the stage show which is just great. I don't think I've ever seen a Eurovision set where the music and the presentation interact so well. When a repetition makes sense, when it's palatable, it becomes impactful rather than annoying. It's bizarre to say it of a Eurovision song, but Ukraine's show is actually intellectual. It's about sowing spring regrowth (sow is what the repetition word means) powered by the nuclear energy of the sun. If the juries are tasked with examining a song beyond just listening to it for three minutes and voting on a whim, there is a lot to respect about Ukraine's offering.

Not bet nearly as much as previous years.  Managed to find myself red on Italy and France, although with Italy I'm planning to buy back prior to the televoting. 

France I'm clinging on to the fact we were here in 2011 - massive favourite with their popera song and absolutely bombed.  No chance this bombs but I'm holding on to the public not giving it enough love.  We'll see.

I'm one for narratives and I can't help feeling a little jury nudge for Malta will be a boost for junior Eurovision, given Destiny won that a few years back.  What better promo for that lesser competition than a 'come and see the future stars of the main ESC' tag line?  I've never bothered with junior ESC but if it meant the BBC and others started showing it or even entering it, then I might bother with it from a betting POV.

And what better message - overweight girl, mixed race, song about female empowerment.  Ticks every box and is a banger.  Reminds me of Sweden 2017 in the sense it's good but not quite REALLY good and seems to build up great but then not quite pop at the chorus meaning it might be Top 5 but no higher, but the fact Destiny ticks a whole load of PR boxes, will certainly mean she's my main green.  The 6 slot is a killer but other songs have done well from an early slot (but not won for a while).

After Cyprus bombing and San Marino not popping in the way I hoped back in March, Malta's my number one green.

Interesting post, honestcl.

I agree that we've seen before that however good an Edith Piaf France puts forward, the rest of Europe just isn't ready to crown something so local. She is good though. It's a bit facile in the end, with the hundred voilas on loop.

Your Malta post makes a lot of sense. I will be annoyed if Malta win. As you said, the chorus is a letdown, and it smacks of trying to shove all possible genres in there to rack up the votes. To me it sounds like something manufactured in a sausage factory for the win. That certainly doesn't mean it won't. Plenty of garbage a hundred times worse than Malta wins Eurovision. Its strong points are very solid.

From a non-betting point of view, I hope Italy or Ukraine win. Unlike Malta, Italy's is a proper credible piece of music. A Ukraine win would be very good for the contest in the long term, because we would see in future years more countries storyboard literally every camera shot. But there's very good in that sense, and there's very good, as you said, in the sense of marketing, hype, and franchise expansion. I guess it comes down to whether the juries are staffed by people who feel a proprietorial responsibility to develop Eurovision, or just want to promote good art. The former for Malta, the latter for Ukraine.

https://spotifycharts.com/viral/

Spotify Global Viral Chart Top 50 for Thursday:

Ukraine at #5.

Cyprus at #9.

Azerbaijan at #11.

Malta at #12.

Good points re Ukraine FXDUX.  Always liked their entries and staging.  Hamster wheels; sandlady; screens of crowds (2012); the Jamala colourful tree; man on top of a stair case - I'd say their creativity overall is possibly the best of the lot.

It'll do well - don't think it has enough appeal for the full win.  You could say the same about them in 2016 but there was a general support for Ukraine then after the 'war' with Russia, which certainly helped get them some extra love/

Think winners from first 4 in betting despite wide open look this year. Ukraine song is strangely compelling tune and will definately include. And try and be green on other 3. France is OK but bit same old same old with them, might chuck a saver on Iceland too

https://www.racingpost.com/sport/eurovision-song-contest-final-predictions-o...

https://www.racingpost.com/sport/eurovision-song-contest-final-predictions-o...

What are we making of the jury running order?  It's saying France has won that portion, just a case of by how much.

Malta and a saver on France

Russia over Azer at 1.8 on H1ll5 has grabbed me.  Surely that Azeri dirge can't compete with the box-ticking, artistic, colourful effort from their bigger cousins