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Eurovision 2021 winner market now up and running.

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By:
MartinK
When: 15 May 21 20:31
90 seconds of Serbia 2nd rehearsal - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2MZkj2NjDI
These girls really ramp up the energy levels and are outsiders to be considered for a top 10 finish
By:
MartinK
When: 15 May 21 20:49
Another Swiss gem - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vf08C9h2qM
Looks like he's doing all those moves on purpose!!  - from 2:30 in the above
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 15 May 21 20:56
I just looked at a longer clip of Italy from the same account as you first posted and really I dont see the favouritism. I really like the song myself but apart from them being a banging, tight band, what is it that appeals to a Eurovision audience. It's got tonnes of conviction but sounds like 2001-6. Also the new costumes arent as good as the suits they've worn in other performances - they look decidedly 970s
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 17 May 21 01:10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7ZlfraxaFM This shows just how good an act Måneskin are. It's a really attractive band and song and need to be taken seriously. But a couple of questions - do older commentators like them because it recalls all the good bands that used to be popular in the charts fifteen years go? will younger viewers relate to it as they don't seem to with rock these days - look at the (to me dire) lineups of rock festivals like Reading/Leeds these days.
However, what sounds very conventional to me might sound fresh to younger viewers. Will family viewers relate to the song as a 'Eurovision' song? it doesnt fit the convention but recent years have seen unconventional songs win out - unconventional songs that are not in English. Going on the experience of the past a song like this must be opposed at current odds, does a 'pyro curtain' really sway people so much? - that would be like saying Greece's green-screen dancing effects will do. I'm really looking forward to finding out but I know for sure that Måneskin should have a successful future regardless.
By:
leroyb
When: 17 May 21 15:08
This Eurovision is dire imo. Nothing stands out.
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 17 May 21 17:10
You have to play with the cards as they're dealt Laugh
By:
honestcl
When: 17 May 21 19:44
Pleased I got on Cyrpus at 32 last week.  The plunge has been good but is it halting now around 14 - is that as far as Elena goes?  Nice run all the same.  Nice to know I can still get on at the start of a train having lost my touch in recent years.

I agree with most of the comments re France and Italy - the Italian song is bang on but is it 'Eurovision'.  Reminds me a bit of Georgia - which had a 90s Britpop/Oasis vibe and got the 12 from the UK judges but was largely unliked.  Italy much better than that but reminiscent of the 15-20 year ago crowd being more into it.

France - classy, but is it right for 2021.

Starting to come back to my thinking where I was in April and that's for Malta to steady the ship and come back for the win from 3rd in the betting like Jamala did in 2016 (after drifting right out to 16 on the day of the final.)

I actually enjoy the fact that we're nearly underway and the winner is still not obvious unlike 2013, 2012, 2019, 2018 (fairly obvious anyway) and 2017.   Been an interesting year - a real mix of genres and, I know it's not going to win but in the last few days I've absolutely been hit between the eyes by Belgium's song.  Took me a few lessons and that's why it won't win but for the people who give it a few goes, I think they'll end up liking it a lot.
By:
MartinK
When: 18 May 21 08:42
Semi final 1 Jury show last night - 50% of scores = interesting analysis using the criteria the jury is supposed to use = https://www.escdaily.com/jury-rehearsal-semi-1-eurovision-2021-vocal-assessment-of-all-the-songs/

There were technical issues which appeared to be centered around earpiece timings for the last 4 acts (Romania, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Malta) all 4 being given the chance to perform again. Only Azerbaijan declined.

Malta apparently smashed it with 4.5 stars on the above web site's assessment, 3.5 stars going to Lithuania, Azerbaijan and  North Macedonia ( apparently A technically difficult song with a lot of high notes and some difficult loops and note-changes ), quite whether thee juries will use the strict criteria or just vote for their mates is another matter entirely.
By:
Lifter
When: 21 May 21 01:46
Okay, time for my overall thoughts before the final. Basically, I'm not changing from my view that France win. It is a favorite of mine, so I'm trying to put any bias to the side. I also listen to the Italy song in the gym, so there's that.

Anyway, can we agree that France win the Jury, or at the very least, get top 3?

If so, then I believe they just need to get a top 4/5 in the public vote. The poll on eurovisionworld has them 1st, which has called 4 out of the last 5 winners (with the other being 2nd). They are currently joint 1st with Malta and Italy on myeurovisonscoreapp.

The question is if the current love represents the general public on Saturday. Now, I doubt they win the public vote, but I feel they have enough to get a top 4, especially with the running order.
By:
Trusty
When: 21 May 21 12:23
Amazing how fickle the Eurovision committee are putting San Marino last just because they have some has been US rapper on stage.

Pathetic.
By:
leroyb
When: 21 May 21 14:32
Which song had the best crowd reception ? From tv it seemed like Malta but maybe not.
By:
FXDUX
When: 21 May 21 22:37
The juries' votes will be on tonight's (Friday's) performance, not the live final tomorrow.

And Switzerland had a bit of a mare.

https://twitter.com/rorysalad/status/1395830283941912576

https://twitter.com/TweetMeRyan/status/1395850192012910597

https://twitter.com/KeithMillsD7/status/1395833454395265025
By:
FXDUX
When: 21 May 21 22:54
Keith Mills
@KeithMillsD7
Given that this is the jury final, there's no room for a major vocal error, so that's Switzerland effectively dead in the water.
#eurovision
9:06 PM · May 21, 2021·Twitter Web App
By:
FXDUX
When: 21 May 21 22:54
Ryan
@TweetMeRyan
Replying to
@MaxxyRainbow
Switzerland just messed up the jury final now though. Tried to make his high note fancy, missed it and tried to  style it out but was messy.
10:13 PM · May 21, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
By:
FXDUX
When: 21 May 21 23:03
I thought Switzerland was the closest thing to Arcade this year, but his dancing in the semi-final was ridiculous, which I guess he'll presumably reprise for the edification of televoters tomorrow, and the missed cue plus dodgy high note tonight = not now losing sleep over this entry winning. As always, posting opinions like this is tempting fate, but a screwed up jury performance is, in the end, a screwed up jury performance.
By:
FXDUX
When: 21 May 21 23:32
That's the advantage of Iceland dialling in their pre-taped performance: you know they are going to nail it, with no errors, both in the jury final tonight, and tomorrow.

It's deliberately a stylistically laconic peformance, so there was never going to be much in the way of extra Grand Final wattage for them to deliver.

I suppose the other advantage is that it enhances their whole 2020 frontrunner sob story and 2021 last minute covid infection thing.

Add in all the viewers tomorrow night thinking about everyone back home in Husavik cheering on Ja Ja Ding Dong and Fire Saga,

and the fact that you can't even tell it was pre-taped; the live crowd noise for them in the semi was very loud;

and, well, maybe the elves will come out for them tomorrow.

They have quite a good staging too, but it's nothing on Ukraine's. I saw someone describing Ukraine's staging as high art, and it wasn't an exaggeration.
By:
FXDUX
When: 21 May 21 23:38
Here's a video someone made on the meaning of Ukraine's song:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9hT-YoKCvM

It's really too sophisticated for Eurovision.

The wiwi bloggs people were asked who won the semi-final in their opinion, and three of the four of them went with Ukraine.

Ukraine literally storyboarded the camera shots for their performance.
By:
FXDUX
When: 21 May 21 23:40
Or maybe it was after the semi final jury show. Either way, three of the four of them put Ukraine first.
By:
FXDUX
When: 21 May 21 23:49
As for my other pick, well, I can't understand why Norway is at such long odds. It's just a really melodic song, very accessible and immediate, with stand-out staging. It went from 40 to about 25 at one point. Maybe people think it's too cheesy to pick up jury votes, but good music (relatively; in Eurovision terms, good) is good music. It doesn't have to be high art. It sounded to me like Tix nailed tonight's jury final. If I had one tip for a long odds surprise, Norway would be it. I was at least reassured that one of the national newspapers, either the Telegraph or the Times, had Norway as one of their picks to win. Every so often, the build-up misses something, and maybe this is one, or maybe not.

Of the other frontrunners, Italy is a great song. The only question is whether the genre is for winning this year.

I find the French song a typically pretentious boring French song, but it's sung well and may win, the jury vote if not the televote.

And Malta, she is a great singer, there are some great moments in the song, but there are some other moments that underwhelm.
By:
MartinK
When: 22 May 21 00:16
I think you're overreacting to the Switzerland jury performance.
Here is it from the press centre so it won't be the exact sound on the press feed which the jury will be using.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-enolIFcPf4  - around 1:24:50
He tried to really stretch the note, and it didn't quite come off, but to call the entire performance a "mare" is a stretch - a minor drift from 9.4 to 10.5.
It wasn't as though he didn't reach his normal note, he was over ambitious - a little cocky maybe - not ideal, but not out of it either.
By:
FXDUX
When: 22 May 21 10:04
It wasn't just the high note messed up, apparently he missed a cue at the beginning of the song.

Two errors in the performance the juries will be voting on.

Most people won't realise tonight that half of the votes are already in as of yesterday, and if he makes his cue tonight and makes his high notes as well, then some people might briefly think, ooh, this has good odds for a punt. But they won't be betting on complete information.

Of course the errors won't drag him down to the UK's bottom feeder destiny, but the drift is now out to 14, and I'm going to be bold and say that Switzerland is no longer a contender to win. Someone said that apparently he is a dancer, has dancing in his repertoire or something, so he'll probably feel that it's imperative to bring out the moves again tonight. This is what the Telegraph says today about his dance moves:

"It’s a dramatic, powerfully delivered ballad, only slightly undercut by the unintentionally amusing contemporary dance moves: flailing arms in a very puffy blouse."

That's not quite how I described them below. He looked effing ridiculous.

If you have money on Switzerland, I wouldn't see it through to the end.
By:
MartinK
When: 22 May 21 10:26
I was reflecting on it this morning, and with the others favs making almost perfect performances any mistakes last night could prove costly so I've already reduced my position on him - but I still have some green on him having averaged 17 earlier - just in case.
By:
FXDUX
When: 22 May 21 10:42
Right. That's the point. The point is that there is no runaway favourite this year, at least as far as we can see at the moment. It looks to be a tight contest where the marginal things are going to make the difference. That's a large part of why Ukraine are rising. The difference between their initial music video and their stage presentation is incredible. The song itself doesn't have any particular vulnerable points, any dips like say Israel which has a great ending but terrible lacunas, and if there was one thing I was unsure of before, the repetition, it is solved by the stage show which is just great. I don't think I've ever seen a Eurovision set where the music and the presentation interact so well. When a repetition makes sense, when it's palatable, it becomes impactful rather than annoying. It's bizarre to say it of a Eurovision song, but Ukraine's show is actually intellectual. It's about sowing spring regrowth (sow is what the repetition word means) powered by the nuclear energy of the sun. If the juries are tasked with examining a song beyond just listening to it for three minutes and voting on a whim, there is a lot to respect about Ukraine's offering.
By:
honestcl
When: 22 May 21 10:43
Not bet nearly as much as previous years.  Managed to find myself red on Italy and France, although with Italy I'm planning to buy back prior to the televoting. 

France I'm clinging on to the fact we were here in 2011 - massive favourite with their popera song and absolutely bombed.  No chance this bombs but I'm holding on to the public not giving it enough love.  We'll see.

I'm one for narratives and I can't help feeling a little jury nudge for Malta will be a boost for junior Eurovision, given Destiny won that a few years back.  What better promo for that lesser competition than a 'come and see the future stars of the main ESC' tag line?  I've never bothered with junior ESC but if it meant the BBC and others started showing it or even entering it, then I might bother with it from a betting POV.

And what better message - overweight girl, mixed race, song about female empowerment.  Ticks every box and is a banger.  Reminds me of Sweden 2017 in the sense it's good but not quite REALLY good and seems to build up great but then not quite pop at the chorus meaning it might be Top 5 but no higher, but the fact Destiny ticks a whole load of PR boxes, will certainly mean she's my main green.  The 6 slot is a killer but other songs have done well from an early slot (but not won for a while).

After Cyprus bombing and San Marino not popping in the way I hoped back in March, Malta's my number one green.
By:
FXDUX
When: 22 May 21 10:58
Interesting post, honestcl.

I agree that we've seen before that however good an Edith Piaf France puts forward, the rest of Europe just isn't ready to crown something so local. She is good though. It's a bit facile in the end, with the hundred voilas on loop.

Your Malta post makes a lot of sense. I will be annoyed if Malta win. As you said, the chorus is a letdown, and it smacks of trying to shove all possible genres in there to rack up the votes. To me it sounds like something manufactured in a sausage factory for the win. That certainly doesn't mean it won't. Plenty of garbage a hundred times worse than Malta wins Eurovision. Its strong points are very solid.

From a non-betting point of view, I hope Italy or Ukraine win. Unlike Malta, Italy's is a proper credible piece of music. A Ukraine win would be very good for the contest in the long term, because we would see in future years more countries storyboard literally every camera shot. But there's very good in that sense, and there's very good, as you said, in the sense of marketing, hype, and franchise expansion. I guess it comes down to whether the juries are staffed by people who feel a proprietorial responsibility to develop Eurovision, or just want to promote good art. The former for Malta, the latter for Ukraine.
By:
FXDUX
When: 22 May 21 11:06
https://spotifycharts.com/viral/

Spotify Global Viral Chart Top 50 for Thursday:

Ukraine at #5.

Cyprus at #9.

Azerbaijan at #11.

Malta at #12.
By:
honestcl
When: 22 May 21 11:59
Good points re Ukraine FXDUX.  Always liked their entries and staging.  Hamster wheels; sandlady; screens of crowds (2012); the Jamala colourful tree; man on top of a stair case - I'd say their creativity overall is possibly the best of the lot.

It'll do well - don't think it has enough appeal for the full win.  You could say the same about them in 2016 but there was a general support for Ukraine then after the 'war' with Russia, which certainly helped get them some extra love/
By:
loui
When: 22 May 21 12:13
Think winners from first 4 in betting despite wide open look this year. Ukraine song is strangely compelling tune and will definately include. And try and be green on other 3. France is OK but bit same old same old with them, might chuck a saver on Iceland too
By:
honestcl
When: 22 May 21 13:32
https://www.racingpost.com/sport/eurovision-song-contest-final-predictions-odds-betting-tips-where-to-watch/491134
By:
honestcl
When: 22 May 21 13:32
https://www.racingpost.com/sport/eurovision-song-contest-final-predictions-odds-betting-tips-where-to-watch/491134
By:
honestcl
When: 22 May 21 13:37
What are we making of the jury running order?  It's saying France has won that portion, just a case of by how much.
By:
seaside
When: 22 May 21 15:16
Malta and a saver on France
By:
honestcl
When: 22 May 21 18:52
Russia over Azer at 1.8 on H1ll5 has grabbed me.  Surely that Azeri dirge can't compete with the box-ticking, artistic, colourful effort from their bigger cousins
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