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Eurovision 2021 winner market now up and running.

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Replies: 232
By:
timbuctooth
When: 09 May 21 20:51
Polls schmolls! Always to be ignored, but even more so for ESC; any I`ve ever seen have a truly dismal record, as they`re populated entirely by fanboys, utterly unrepresentative of the average voter, none of whom will have heard any of the songs yet, except perhaps that of their own country. Bulgaria the only one of the market leaders I like too, don`t let schmollsters put you off
By:
MartinK
When: 09 May 21 23:47
From the - https://eurovoix.com/2021/05/07/destiny-wins-the-euro-jury-2021-malta/ - web site

About The Euro Jury 2021
Over 190 jury members feature in this year’s edition of The Euro Jury, including Eurovision winners, past participants, and national finalists. The full results of The Euro Jury will be revealed during the course of May 7.

For the past two years that Eurovision was held, The Euro Jury has correctly identified the winner of Eurovision with both Netta and Duncan Laurence topping the overall leaderboard in The Euro Jury and the Eurovision Song Contest itself. The Euro Jury also correctly identified four out of the top five acts in the final in Tel Aviv.


I know two years hardly a summer makes, but the betting market closely follow the eurovoix result with the first 5 matching the first 6 in the betting on BF:
country / score / bf price
Malta /    466 / 5.2
Switzerland / 433 / 6.0
France / 384 /     4.4
Italy / 367 / 8.4
Iceland / 308 / 21
By:
timbuctooth
When: 10 May 21 01:34
`...Over 190 jury members feature in this year’s edition of The Euro Jury, including Eurovision winners, past participants, and national finalists. The full results of The Euro Jury will be revealed during the course of May 7...`

As I said, unrepresentative fanboys.

There`s tens, maybe hundreds of ESC polls every year, no surprise that one of them gets it right now and then. As soon as I read `for the past two years`, I knew that would be about the extent of it and, sure enough, seems they were the only two years they picked the winner!

What happened to OGAE? Weren`t they the previous default choice of ESC schmollsters? I remember taking on, big style, that Italian gorilla gimpboy in 2017, who OGAE had home and hosed, very short-priced fav, (I even started a reverse train!), part of which had me checking out OGAE`s record which, as expected, exposed them as charlatan chancers. Is that why they seem to have been replaced by this `EJ` crowd? Because EJ have called the last two correctly? While ignoring all their previous failures? As with all polling companies, shystering at its very best
By:
MartinK
When: 10 May 21 12:38
You're being a bit harsh on eurovoix. In their last 5 polls, a shotlist from the top 6 managed to find the first 2 in all 5 years as well as 4, 3, 5, 5, 4 of the first 6 in those 5 years.

2019
Netherlands – 525 points    1st
Italy – 370 points    2nd
Switzerland – 307 points    4th
Sweden – 264 points    5th   
Cyprus – 193 points    xx
Malta – 174 points    xx

2018
Israel – 393 points    1st
Czech Republic  – 261 points        6th
Bulgaria  – 246 points    xx
France  – 228 points    xx
Cyprus – 204 points    2nd
Estonia  – 203 points    xx

2017
Italy – 401 points    6th
Sweden – 271 points    5th
Belgium – 245 points    4th
Australia – 243 points xx
Portugal – 225 points    1st
Bulgaria – 214 points    2nd

2016
France – 344    6th
Australia – 342    2nd
Spain – 282    xx
Sweden – 264    5th
Ukraine – 263    1st
Russia – 226    3rd


2015
Australia – 214    5th
Sweden – 153    1st
Italy – 146    3rd
Russia – 105    2nd
Albania – 100    xx
Iceland – 91    xx
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 10 May 21 19:08
Good to hear your thoughts Tim. I do have doubts about such polls as they really only tell you what the year-round Eurovision fans like. I'm not even certain that including past participants etc gives a proper picture as inevitably that will have a selection bias in them too. But I do like how they tilt some to over-back tracks that can only appeal to fans - so there's money to be made there. We'll know a lot more about Bulgaria tomorrow - I'm hoping it has some of the appeal of the acoustic performance Victoria did. If the graphics and staging are a bit too cgi clock heavy I'll definitely reconsider. But it does strike me as a song that cuts through in a way many wont. I am very aware that many Eurovision 'experts' really don't rate it at all, so we'll see (a good example is the youtube video from Tellystats). If it has the effect I'm hoping for I could see it drop to 7s after the semi and tighten afterwards. But if not c'est la vie.

I think my favourite songs are Italy and France but I can't see either winning unless a situation develops where all the favourites are very close. It should be noted just how old fashioned the French song is - parts of the pre-chorous remind me of La Boheme a song released in 1965 and it's not as if France hasn't sent great female vocal performances in the past that were largely ignored (Patricia Kaas). And Rock songs have never got over the line and while Måneskin are a good tight band the song is also old fashioned. I see Iceland are getting a lot of praise today but lets face it their song is very niche - they should be no threat whatsoever.
By:
timbuctooth
When: 10 May 21 21:17
Martin, you make a fair point, but the problem with having the winner in amongst six possibilities is that you then have to back all six, with past performance still being no guarantee that any of their six will win this, or any future, year. Of their six this year, backing at current prices would mean;

Mal - 0.5 pts,
Swi + 0.5 pts, (a 1/12 win)
Fra - 1.5 pts,
Ita + 2.5 pts, (a 5/12 win)
Ice + 5.5 pts, (an 11/12 win)
Isr + 194 pts, well at least that`s more like it!

So, two losers, three pathetically small winners, otherwise you`re looking for a 200 poke to make it worthwhile!


Hi Sekt10ned; please be aware that ESC is by far my worst RTV event, I`m useless at it. My thoughts are entirely coming from a `polls? Schmolls!` basis, having seen how dismal they are throughout my time at Specials. I do understand that some people have mastered the dark art of finding winners from polls/stats/trends and sm stuff, but that`s an awful lot of hard work when instinct does the job fine. Best of luck with Bulgaria tomorrow, but the fact that I like them doesn`t bode well!
By:
MartinK
When: 10 May 21 22:27
An alternative approach would be to just dutch the top two - Malta (5.8) and Switzerland (6.6) at about 5/2 i think - in the last 5 years it's given the winner 3 times and the second twice.
By:
MartinK
When: 10 May 21 23:05
From the eurovoix  data the bet that caught my eye was Israel to qualify from the first semi-final at 1.6. In the  eurovoix poll  Israel came 6th overall, having come 4th with the jury and 21st in the televote. Looking at just the contenders in the first semi final, then they came 2nd behind Malta. They're currently 10th in the BF betting market to qualify.
I'm usually a big priced lots of loser sort of guy, rather than buying money, but I think I'll make an exception with this one.
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 11 May 21 13:06
Bulgaria down to a 11.5 after her first rehearsal (from 23.5 last week) but with Switzerland and France still to rehearse she might slip back a little. Still it's encouraging that there will be more tightening come second rehearsal and the the semi.
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 11 May 21 13:25
Just found time to look at the clip of her rehearsal and thankfully there's no boring cgi clocks like in some of her videos so I'm reasonably content that the song its credible and cuts through. Still puzzles me while the 'experts' really havent taken to it. I'm not saying that it will win but it's mystifying that Iceland is rated a more likely winner
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 11 May 21 15:33
Also caught up with the Swiss video. It's a better performance than I as expecting - more dynamic. He seems to have curbed that off-putting shrillness on the high notes, so he's looking good too come the finals. Getting rid of the piano makes it sufficiently different from Arcade 2019.

I'm very curious to see how France sell such an old fashioned chanson, and it looks like Malta have been hampered a little with all that pink. So really odds should get nice and tight come the night. I've been laying Iceland a little, reduced my Bulgaria and upped Switzerland - I'm only in a little danger with France but can do something about in the coming days. I'm quite happy to let things run for a while.
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 11 May 21 21:30
Looks like the fandom might be catching up a little bit with Bulgaria - currently the rehearsal video on YouTube has 100k views and 1,000 comments that are mostly extremely positive while Switzerland has 110k and 1,500 comments along the same lines. To me I would count them as being in a similar position or advantage tilted to Bulgaria as Switzerland has consistently been popular unlike Bulgaria. I wont be able to gage it really until the semi final, the clips aren't long enough to really give a feel (eg is Switzerland too cold? some on Twitter don't seem to like the staging) but it seems both camps have done a reasonable job. But I'd definitely tip Bulgaria top 4 and Iceland out of the top 4.
By:
honestcl
When: 12 May 21 09:54
Any thoughts on Cyprus?  Easily the catchiest chorus for me although I'm concerned that overall the song is a tad too repetitive.  Good staging based on the clip I've seen - Elena looks less harsh/aloof compared to the official video.  Wondering if this can have a similar charge to Fuego in 2018.  Maybe not win but power through for an e/w win.

I'm laying France (although the odds have shortened since I laid it a month ago - doh!)  We've been here before with them (remember them in 2011?  And even 2016 to a lesser extent) and failing as favourites/fancied runners.

Are we to assume Flo-Rida is not appearing on stage in the show?  Took a hopeful punt on San Marino a while back.  Looking forlorn now!
By:
honestcl
When: 12 May 21 09:54
Any thoughts on Cyprus?  Easily the catchiest chorus for me although I'm concerned that overall the song is a tad too repetitive.  Good staging based on the clip I've seen - Elena looks less harsh/aloof compared to the official video.  Wondering if this can have a similar charge to Fuego in 2018.  Maybe not win but power through for an e/w win.

I'm laying France (although the odds have shortened since I laid it a month ago - doh!)  We've been here before with them (remember them in 2011?  And even 2016 to a lesser extent) and failing as favourites/fancied runners.

Are we to assume Flo-Rida is not appearing on stage in the show?  Took a hopeful punt on San Marino a while back.  Looking forlorn now!
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 12 May 21 15:36
I'm not certain that it will do as well as Fuego but there's always room for a sexy song near the top. Fuego was a bit more current than El Diablo which is a bit early Lady Gaga. Also the quiet bits are a little strange. It can be a top ten song but I have no idea if it will reach the EW places.

I have no clue or opinion about San Marino though - best to check twitter:
eg https://twitter.com/ESCtips_Gavster https://twitter.com/EntertainOdds
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 12 May 21 15:55
I think I have to lay France bit more - it's establishing itself even more of a favourite today but I find it impossible to see it getting a strong enough public vote and being such an old fashioned song it cant be guaranteed to top the jury votes too. It's not the same competition as in the 1990s
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 12 May 21 18:15
Bulgaria is now out to 11, this is the worry when backing an act that the market consensus -based on fan polls - is slightly sour on. That France is so well backed when it hasn't even been rehearsed probably points to how uninformed the market is. It really needs to be seen first.
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 12 May 21 20:04
this was quite a good listen if anyone is interested: https://www.gambling.com/news/listen-gambling-com-s-eurovision-2021-betting-preview-podcast-2530000
what struck me is that this is not as clear a year as 2019 and 18
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 13 May 21 13:51
France - which still hasn't been seen - is now on the drift with Malta back in favourite position. All the other favourites are on the drift, this seems to me to be more volatile than some recent Eurovisions. The main concern is that Malta makes such a good impression on Tuesday that there's a train. The favourite going into the final is usually around 2.8. Presumably tomorrow brings France and Italy...
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 13 May 21 15:08
Sorry my mistake they're practicing today. I apologise for spamming this thread a little with my workings out- more interesting than just fan polls though Wink
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 13 May 21 15:32
Italy were around 10 for 20 mins after their rehearsal but good word has seen them backed down to 7
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 13 May 21 16:29
And now they are bellow 5 which to me seems like the market is desperately grasping for a favourite. I personally like the Italian song a lot as it's the sort of music that I might listen to but it is quite different from what is known to win at Eurovision - although the past few years have seen much more variation. I'm tempted to lay a little as it should drift out again to perhaps 7.
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 13 May 21 16:49
And my obsession Bulgaria is now out to 14, Iceland falling back too, now 12. It will be quite mad if France is a good performance
By:
timbuctooth
When: 13 May 21 17:24
Forget Iceland; trivial lyrics, nothing tune, dire costumes, beyond dated, Star Trek with Sparklers, trying to be the next `Los del Rio` with the dolphin dancing. Max red
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 13 May 21 17:35
And now France's price crashes - looks like the market is just snapping up each favourite as it goes along. Useful volatility.
By:
gabs
When: 13 May 21 17:41
Can't help but feel that having two Big 5 countries as Favourites is a laying opportunity. The last time a Big 5 won was 2010, and before that 1997. Italy has had a lot of buzz and high finishes in the past, and their selection process ensures they send high quality songs but not quite sealed the deal, and France seems to often underscore relative to expectations
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 13 May 21 17:46
Yes Iceland was always toast it's just that the market hasnt realised it yet. Those keyboards alone annoy the heck out of me
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 13 May 21 17:49
Certainly Italy will do well but it would have to be a Herculean effort to overcome its genre problem - unless it is so competitive that the winner just squeaks over the line. But that doest often happen. I find it hard as I like Italy and France the best but I do think they are layable. But be warned there is so much praise for France it's hard to ignore the warning
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 13 May 21 17:51
I'm a little sad that Bulgaria is being so pushed aside - Bulgaria or Greece seem to be strong candidates for winning semi 2 (as people seem a little down of the staging of Switzerland) so should be given more recognition. Will France eat away the supposed, possibly imagined, strong jury support for Malta's voice? It could be a really exciting night come the final
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 13 May 21 17:53
perhaps lay Italy, keep France onside?
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 13 May 21 21:47
By the way does anyone know how Israel does in Eurovision when there's troubles with Palestinians?  Is there a protest vote against them? They have a rather niche song that's odds on for qualification. I'd have had it qualifying -just- because of the vocal weirdness but perhaps this makes them more borderline.
By:
MartinK
When: 14 May 21 13:54
On the basis of the "fanboy" vote on the eurovoix I had a good bet on Israel to qualify from the first semi-final at 1.6. I'm not expecting to pick up now, although when Israel won in 2018 (8 May) it was in the middle of the gaza border protests where IDF according to the "Report of the UN Commission of Inquiry on the 2018 protests in the OPT" - Israeli snipers deployed near the separation fence to police the protests referred to as “the Great March of Return”, shot over 6106 demonstrators, killing 183, between 30 March 2018 and 31 December 2018.

Not quite on the same scale of the current flare up though.
By:
MartinK
When: 14 May 21 14:52
In recent times Israel failed to qualify in 2004, 2007, 2011-2015
In none of those years in the preceding two weeks was there any sort of flare up, so presumably it was the songs themselves which led to them failing to qualify. This may well be the first flare up in recent years just prior to Eurovision.
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 14 May 21 18:58
I think it depends for how long the troubles continue. If they come to an end over the weekend there will probably not be an impact. If the IDF goes into Gaza, then that should be a concern.
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 14 May 21 19:02
It's weird how some people are still holding onto Iceland while Switzerland drops like a stone. I still think he will beat Iceland even if it looks like he's having a fit - or maybe early stage Parkinson's - in the rehearsal video.
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 14 May 21 19:06
Not many have warmed to Bulgaria so I consider myself very warned. I did think it would come in again for another lay. Perhaps I'm thinking too much of how the contest has gone in recent years rather than concentrating more on immediate appeal. But I still think Italy falls short and that France has won if it was the early 1990s- much better than some of the dirge that won in that period - but misses out this time (based on all the other great French songs that have done so too).
By:
Lifter
When: 15 May 21 15:35
Been on France since hearing it before their selection process, and it's still my favorite. I think Italy will likely win the public vote, but France should finish higher when the Jury scores are added.
By:
MartinK
When: 15 May 21 19:59
Here are almost 2 minutes of the Switzerland 2nd rehearsal on ESC Arena - not sure  how they get this much - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcADRDNP034
Gives a better perspective, although his movements are somewhat unusual - but surely at 18.0 he's moved out far too much.

I also thought ROXEN of Romania had drifted far too much out to 500 at one point. It's obviously risky, but all it requires is a decent dress rehearsal on Monday for the price to be well under 200.
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 15 May 21 20:11
Yes 18 is too much for Switzerland but Bulgaria could be got at 19 too. I'm not sure how the market can be so confident about France and Italy when there are good arguments against them. Also I dont see Iceland as the best song in semi 2, it's weaker than last year. It's very trappy because they are super tempting odds but maybe the market will never close up again.

Is there potential for a complete outsider to win? possibly. It is a year with no truly clear favourites so there's a lot of supposition. Do I trust a view driven by fan clubs? certainly not. But it's probably more serious money taking a view of Italy and France now. So yes a completely different act may win out - perhaps a Greece if there really is an appetite for a bouncy upbeat song.

Or maybe everyone is driving each other nuts and it will be Malta that takes it after all and there's a massive train behind it on the night - be warned

A big clue will be in the running order for the final.
By:
Sekt10ned
When: 15 May 21 20:13
Cheers MartinK for the Swiss clip. I think sadly it seems a little cold but I'll certainly take some 18
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