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15 Dec 19 08:32
Date Joined: 28 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 55,943 | Blogger: armagnac's blog
cant find the old thread, but ive found my old bets and im in with a chance of some profit if Nandy get in.
lets go
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Report bearcub December 15, 2019 11:13 AM GMT
Gl getting that Blairite over the line Cry
Report armagnac December 15, 2019 11:22 PM GMT
nandy looking a likely runner, been smashed in...both favs a northern birds, reckon thats what they need to get those seats back
Report Jim Duncan December 16, 2019 12:36 AM GMT
I think it will be Rebecca Long-Bailey - she seems to have been regularly used in front of the cameras in recent weeks
Report armagnac December 16, 2019 9:00 AM GMT
tim  will be laying that hag by the droves, bailey is nothing but 'remaining corbynism' this party needs to break the trend and Lisa is the woman to take the party in a new direction and win back the north.
Report armagnac December 16, 2019 9:41 AM GMT
im at the top of my game right now, Lisa is the only value here..once they wake up to the reality of what just happened we'll see a new fav.
it appears the old establishment is not yet willing to let go maybe coz that power hungry pr1ck is staying on for the time being, so many probably to scared to voice there true feelings with what went wrong and where to go next.
tin pot len also backing the corbynite regime to carry on rings a depressing bell, there not moving with the voters.
how can one party be so stupid, trying carry on with this student march instead of getting back to true hardworking labour values that the party has thrived on since time began.

clueless, this is one team who couldn't win with kids !!!!
Report bearcub December 16, 2019 9:54 AM GMT
Report Jim Duncan December 16, 2019 11:17 AM GMT
Jim here army - you're not at the top of your observation game right now! Laugh

The question is WILL they wake up to the reality of what just happened?
You suggest they will and then suggest they won't?
Report armagnac December 16, 2019 1:21 PM GMT
Ooops thanks for clearing that clerical error up Jim Love
Report timbuctooth December 16, 2019 4:51 PM GMT
Go on then, army, you got me! No knowledge at all of the shenanigans going on within the Labour party, can`t be bothered to do any research, but you are the `top of your game` man, so had a little tickle on your instincts; laid the fav, and backed your girl.
Report Jim Duncan December 16, 2019 5:14 PM GMT

Dec 16, 2019 -- 9:00AM, armagnac wrote:


Report mach December 16, 2019 5:14 PM GMT
too soon to lay RLB, if ever
Report Jim Duncan December 16, 2019 5:16 PM GMT

Dec 16, 2019 -- 9:00AM, armagnac wrote:


Report Jim Duncan December 16, 2019 5:17 PM GMT
"tim  will be laying that hag by the droves, bailey is nothing but 'remaining corbynism' this party needs to break the trend and Lisa is the woman to take the party in a new direction and win back the north."

RLB's price has been coming in all day - are you laying or backing RLB army?

If you're wanting to lay there's £1267 to smash at 2.68...but good luck with that! Silly
Report timbuctooth December 16, 2019 5:27 PM GMT
mach 16 Dec 19 17:14 
too soon to lay RLB, if ever

Too late! I laid my bit at 2.48, which was the lowest she`d touched until then. All pleased with myself for a few minutes, but army`s got me at it now, so just laid a bit more at 2.4. XF/IAC/SCD/SPOTY/Election all finished, the `Christmas No1` market`s the most boring for years, hopefully this will fill in some of the fun
Report armagnac December 16, 2019 9:58 PM GMT
You know it’s makes sense, this is one time the fav deffo needs laying
Report Jim Duncan December 16, 2019 11:30 PM GMT
...smash it army!
Report timbuctooth December 17, 2019 1:31 AM GMT
Terrible timing from me; just half an hour after getting involved, a 5k lump appeared, crushing the price. Laid small bit after bit of it, all the way down to 1.9, so at least my average lay price is now much lower!
Report armagnac December 17, 2019 7:51 AM GMT
Don’t worry Tim, got a good 3 months on this market. How on earth they want to install someone who has corbyn’s blood running through them is beyond me. Surely Lisa will highlight this in the race, plus she has options. The fav has the same crap patter that brought a party to its knees, Corbyn without a beard
Report mach December 17, 2019 1:04 PM GMT
Kier getting some action today, Jenny Chapman endorsing Kier and saying it need not be a woman.
The side of the party that is in control will not likely agree.
Report timbuctooth December 17, 2019 5:13 PM GMT
RLB lpm 2.84. Enjoying this!
Report Jim Duncan December 17, 2019 5:17 PM GMT
Report mach December 18, 2019 12:32 PM GMT
Report Cider December 18, 2019 1:08 PM GMT
Toys out of the pram?
Report mach December 18, 2019 3:33 PM GMT
Taken from, the rules look like there will not be a large field (outsiders no chance of making the ballot, sorry Tim)and if you are from the left of the party not only will you make the ballot but you probably have an advantage. 

So how does it work and what's the timetable?

There have been a number of changes to the party rules since the last contest in 2016.

The nomination requirement to get on the ballot has been changed, because the hard left were always concerned that a high threshold among MPs would enable moderates in the parliamentary Labour party (PLP) to keep more radical candidates off the ballot paper.

They therefore reduced the percentage of nominations from MPs and MEPs needed from 15% to ten per cent. At the moment, there are 203 Labour MPs and ten Labour MEPs - a total of 213 - so candidates will need nominations from 22 MPs or MEPs. The hard left will easily pass this hurdle as they have a core strength of nearly 40 MPs. If the nomination process starts after the UK has reached a stage in Brexit where it no longer has MEPs, the threshold drops to 21 MP nominations.

But that's not all. Union support was needed to get this rule change through the 2018 conference, so a trade-off took place to add an additional nomination requirement.

As well as ten per cent of MPs and MEPs, candidates must have nominations from either five per cent of constituency Labour parties (CLPs), or "at least three affiliates (at least two of which shall be trade union affiliates) comprising five per cent of affiliated membership". In other words, the grassroots, and especially trade unions, have considerable power in the process.

Both these requirements are quite tricky and could significantly reduce the number of candidates who make it onto the ballot.

There are 647 CLPs, so five per cent of them is 33. This doesn't sound many, but Momentum showed they have a very strong network for delivering CLP nominations in 2015 and 2016. If their candidate got 70% of CLPs and there were four or five other candidates fighting for the remaining 30%, some of them may get knocked out by this requirement. CLP nominations will be decided at local meetings up and down the country, which all members in a CLP are entitled to vote at.

The alternative route via affiliates enables the major unions to get their preferred candidates on the ballot. There are only 12 unions affiliated to the Labour party, of which only five are big enough to get a candidate across the five per cent hurdle – Unite, Unison, GMB, Usdaw and CWU. Each of these would need to bring a smaller allied union and a socialist society (of which there are 19 with nomination rights, now that Labour Students has been disaffiliated from the party, plus Young Labour) with them.

If some of the large unions work together to back the same candidates, it will further restrict the number who can come through this route. One can imagine scenarios such as Unite and CWU both backing Rebecca Long-Bailey, or Unison and GMB both backing Angela Rayner.

Once the field has been defined by the nomination process, who actually gets to vote?

The old electoral college, where MPs, party members and trade unions each had a third of the votes, was abolished by Ed Miliband in 2014.

Voting is now on a one-person-one-vote basis, with all the votes aggregated and counted together, all of equal value and no individual entitled to cast more than one vote.

There are three categories of people eligible to vote: Labour party members, affiliated supporters and registered supporters.

Affiliated supporters are members of trade unions and socialist societies affiliated to the party who aren't also full party members and opt in to having a vote in the process. Some 99,000 people in this category voted in 2016.

Registered supporters are people who pay a one-off fee that just gives them voting rights in the leadership and deputy ballot and no other rights. In 2015 these were the controversial £3 supporters. In 2016 the National Executive Committee (NEC) raised the fee to £25 and only opened registration for 48 hours, but despite this 120,000 people voted via this route. The NEC decides the fee and registration deadline when it sets the timetable for the election and may be minded to set it prohibitively high to drive people towards full membership instead.

Critically different from 2016 is that then there was a freeze date for party members to be allowed a vote. You had to have signed up six months before the start of the leadership contest - ie in early January 2016 - to have voting rights as a member. But bizarrely, if you were excluded this way you could pay another £25 to get a vote as registered supporter.

In 2018 the rulebook was changed to remove this requirement. It now reads: "The freeze date for eligibility to vote shall be not less than two weeks after the approved timetable is announced and not less than three weeks before the deadline for receipt of ballot papers, with no qualifying period of membership prior to the freeze date."

This means that new members who join now, or up to two weeks after a contest has been timetabled, can vote in it. There is therefore a huge incentive on candidates to recruit new members into the party to vote for them, not just to appeal to existing members.

Voters can cast their ballots either online or by post. They will be voting for both a leader and a deputy leader, after the latter position was vacated by Tom Watson before the election. Assuming there are more than two candidates in each case, voting is not by first-past-the-post, but by numbering the candidates in a preferential ballot. The rulebook describes this as: "The votes shall be totalled and the candidate receiving more than half of the votes so apportioned shall be declared elected. If no candidate reaches this total on the count of first preference votes, a redistribution of votes shall take place according to preferences indicated on the ballot paper."

The only aspects of the timetable that are clear from the rulebook is that the process has to last at least five weeks, as the rules talk about the deadline for new members being two weeks after the timetable announcement and three weeks before the ballot closes. In practice, longer will be needed to allow CLPs time to convene meetings to make nominations. In 2016 the whole process took about ten weeks.

The NEC, which is dominated by Corbynites, has considerable powers to determine the exact timetable, the cost and timing of the registered supporter scheme and other eligibility criteria. They will meet on January 6th to take these decisions.

These details of the rules sound dry but in a tight contest they could make the difference between a continuity Corbynite and a candidate from one of the other traditions in the party winning.
Report Cider December 18, 2019 3:43 PM GMT
Cheers mach, do you do executive summaries Grin
Report timbuctooth December 18, 2019 3:46 PM GMT
Worse than the Judean People`s Popular Front!
Report Jim Duncan December 18, 2019 7:11 PM GMT
...who are they Tim? Laugh
Report timbuctooth December 18, 2019 9:02 PM GMT
From `The Life of Brian`; they`re forever drafting meaningless and convoluted resolutions, constant internecine warfare with `The People`s Popular Judean Front`, and `The People`s Popular Front of Judea`,  instead of fighting the common enemy, The Romans.
Never could be doing with the Monty Pythin TV stuff but both this film and `The Holy Grail` really are pretty funny.
Report Jim Duncan December 18, 2019 9:05 PM GMT
...ah yes, thought I'd heard of them - 'Life of Brian' and 'The Holy Grail' are brill
Report mach December 19, 2019 10:21 PM GMT
Clive Lewis most recent name in to the fray
Report Capt__F January 10, 2020 11:15 PM GMT
Hybrid of Dunn & Lennox
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