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09 Dec 19 16:00
Date Joined: 28 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 55,756 | Blogger: armagnac's blog
i have backed ladbaby again this year at 3/1
worked the media well last year to get his charity single home, can see him begging his way to another number one this year..especially now he's more media savvy
Pause Switch to Standard View Christmas Number One 2019
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Report armagnac December 10, 2019 8:53 AM GMT
yes splin all i see is far less competition this time (presently) with acts who are not overly concerned about being christmas number one, verses someone who is that desperate to do it again its almost life and death. i think ladbaby will sell more copies this year than last personally coz his enthusiasm will not have waned in the light of already achieving top spot. for me he will be even more c0cky and will seize any attention from any quarter to spread the word, especially as now he's actually seen 1st hand what the charity he working for is all about and how hard they have to work at, even more so this time of the year. that will be his selling point to the audiences he reaches, i think his delivery of this will be so poignant any challengers who appear he'll probably win around.
Report armagnac December 10, 2019 4:39 PM GMT
they've been on the streets of london with a megaphone begging for pre-orders lol, video going up on his facebook page later. which has 3.2 million likes
Report armagnac December 10, 2019 4:43 PM GMT
his facebook page this time last year had 2.7 million likes a boost of 500,000
Report armagnac December 10, 2019 6:46 PM GMT
whers's cider i want to ask him something, how many physical sales did ladbaby achieve last year ? current number one is only getting around 68,000 streams atm according to the plonker masterton
Report Cider December 10, 2019 7:02 PM GMT
Report armagnac December 10, 2019 7:04 PM GMT
thanks cider
Report Cider December 10, 2019 7:06 PM GMT
Dance Monkey is heading for circa 70K this week, but long odds on to be subject to ACR in the one that counts (ie next week).
Report armagnac December 10, 2019 7:07 PM GMT
yeah read that on james's last update, no idea what it means but i know its bad lol
Report Cider December 10, 2019 7:12 PM GMT
To put it simply, once a song that's been charting for a number of weeks is in decline, it gets less credit for streaming to expedite its fall in the chart, to make room for newer music. If ACR is applied, it won't be able to win.
Report armagnac December 10, 2019 7:12 PM GMT
with ladbaby's increased followers and the fact this means so much more to him ie back to back and never been done by novelty act i see him beating those sales figues easily
Report armagnac December 10, 2019 7:13 PM GMT
ok thanks again cider, your the master not that twonk james, oh and what a goal by salah holy cow
Report Cider December 10, 2019 7:19 PM GMT
You were the Daddy last year army! I would say LadBaby is the front runner with known knowns and DM being subject to ACR, but without the BBC breakfast interview he would have been beat in 2018. So he either needs to make up for that in general sales, or get on the breakfast show again.
Report armagnac December 10, 2019 7:26 PM GMT
lol yeah need it again for a nice christmas after andy getting robbed, feels like de ja vouz.. although this year i broke even on celeb. i'd be gobsmacked if he does not get same or lots more publicity this year, as last year he was literally a nobody and had to force the issue a bit. i'd expect his door to be knocking but if not he wont sit on his hands, in his eyes he's reigning champ and will do whatever it takes to retain that.
Report armagnac December 10, 2019 7:41 PM GMT
i'd imagine the video will be funny and both of there kids heavily involved, its gonna be a guaranteed stocking filler
Report Splinun1 December 10, 2019 8:09 PM GMT
Hope your right Army, specials have been rough for me this year. Needing some Christmas cheer, this is my biggest green for a very long time if it comes in. The High Street was way too slow on this market and we’re 2/1 last night. Now almost at evens. More than likely as he has form and still no contenders. We all know huge followings matter in specials (Jac)
Report armagnac December 10, 2019 8:14 PM GMT
im super confident if no big name announces anything by friday, it wins easily.
Report armagnac December 10, 2019 9:03 PM GMT
video up on his facebook, bloke is a total nutter lol
Report armagnac December 11, 2019 7:21 AM GMT
ladbaby's facebook page is actually Followed by 3,868,475 people, which is obviously different to likes. ive no idea how many followers he had this time last year. but he now has 3.4 million likes, compared to 2.7million likes last year. so im guessing his followers was around 3 million.
Report armagnac December 11, 2019 7:27 AM GMT
if that was the case and he managed 70,000 in sales, that would mean a measly 0.02% of his facebook fanbase each bought one copy. if the same happens this year from his grown page he would achieve over 90,000 in sales. add in he's a little more known to the wider public this year, i see his sales getting close to 100,000 and being more than enough
Report armagnac December 11, 2019 7:36 AM GMT
the jacket cover for the track is iconic and for me the song is far more catchy than last year, if nothing comes out the woodwork i see this being long odds on by sunday.
Report armagnac December 11, 2019 7:52 AM GMT
the big thing that sets him apart from the competition is he's absolutely desperate and wants to be number one, and will do almost anything to get there..including begging at every opportunity. that simply is not gonna happen with any other runners. its like backing a horse, its always nice to know your on a trier.
Report bearcub December 11, 2019 10:11 AM GMT
So much to read, so little to digest Cry
Report armagnac December 12, 2019 8:43 AM GMT
the other massive positive here is surely most of the 70,000 who ordered last year will want the 2nd instalment of this amazing sausage story, and if ladbaby sells the fact they'd be part of history by helping him achieve back to back number ones. the motivation to buy will be extremely high.
Report armagnac December 12, 2019 8:44 AM GMT
bottom line i should be his agent and PR machine coz i'd get this over line before the rest had got off the blocks
Report armagnac December 12, 2019 9:12 AM GMT
he's definitely upped his game, vid up using the online hate he's getting for sympathy...quality move, we'e seen how hate drives people to vote over the years
Report bearcub December 12, 2019 9:14 AM GMT
That's how you won FOTY Wink
Report armagnac December 12, 2019 9:16 AM GMT
Love off to work for me, lets get this home
Report Splinun1 December 12, 2019 11:16 PM GMT
He certainly has upped his game. He’s definitely going for it, just came out that he’s been trying to get a collaboration through to some big stars but they all snubbed him. If that’s not a vote getter I don’t know what is!
Report armagnac December 12, 2019 11:47 PM GMT
its all over splin, he'll be long odds on very soon. he's much bigger than he was last year, his supporters are committed, he's at the top of his game right doubt he's peaking and a bigger flash in the pan than most 15min wannabe's. which is why the media will be all over him this time around.
his breaking news instagram has had nearly 100,000 views, his video's regularly get over 200,000 views within a week.
the charity angle is just to good for anyone to get close, some big names but the competition is bland..the best track by a mile is the current number one, luckily for us its flame is dying out.

form a queue - this race is over before it starts
Report Cider December 13, 2019 8:05 AM GMT
Quite an interesting point of note about LadBaby army is that he's now under the management of Joe Sugg

I suspect you're right, no longer a 15 min of fame wannabe, gone professional under the hood. But still playing the naive joker.
Report armagnac December 13, 2019 8:55 AM GMT
good spot cider, thanks...seems that professionlism already working, they had a decent segment on ch5 news last night

Report armagnac December 13, 2019 8:56 AM GMT
oh and before i get completely sidetracked goodbye corBIN you utter ****
Report armagnac December 13, 2019 9:00 AM GMT
vid going on now

Report armagnac December 13, 2019 9:08 AM GMT
omfg they've totally smashed it, 1/5 is insane value
funniest sh1t, genuine tears LaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report armagnac December 13, 2019 9:09 AM GMT
1/2 i mean, fred 4/5 be very very quick
Report armagnac December 13, 2019 9:13 AM GMT
i repeat this does not get beat, your FOTY is literally giving you free monies Tongue Out
turkey, alcohol and 10 pints up the club boxing day LUMP ON !!
merry christmas
Report armagnac December 13, 2019 11:30 AM GMT
i feel the charity message this year has hit home a lot more, especially with the media and thats the most important place for this to get home. the fact they gave every penny last year to the trussel trust who have once again voiced there thanks really gives this a big boost. there also going onto interviews with 1st hand experience of the charity, something they never had last year.
it all seemed a bit man in the street last year, holding out a tin...i dont think the media really wanted to get behind it, it was more forced or thats the way it felt to me coz of how ladbaby just pesters people.
its like he's earn't the respect of the media and they are fully behind it now, im expecting some decent slots over the next week so the momentum never stops.
we know from last year he wont take his foot off the gas and will give his all to the last seconds
Report armagnac December 13, 2019 12:08 PM GMT
Mid year stats
April 2019 – September 2019

The Trussell Trust’s food bank network provided 823,145 emergency food parcels to people in crisis between April and September 2019, a 23% increase on the same period in 2018.

a lot of people will be thankful and downloading

Report Cider December 13, 2019 1:53 PM GMT
You're ramping hard army Grin LadBaby looks pretty likely to be #1 on the MW chart.
Report armagnac December 13, 2019 2:32 PM GMT
yep, getting right into this lol its all about the PR machine from here
Report anubis7 December 13, 2019 10:16 PM GMT
It's confirmed that Dance Monkey has gone to ACR making it much less likely to stay at no.1.
Report Cider December 14, 2019 9:58 AM GMT
Yes that's right, ACR would put Tones completely out of the running. LadBaby was very briefly #1 on US iTunes! He's had a light green update today so it's looking very promising for him. Will be doing better on amazon and google than regular artists.
Report Cider December 14, 2019 1:20 PM GMT
Stormzy showing circe 60% uplift on spotify. LadBaby has some competition!
Report armagnac December 14, 2019 1:35 PM GMT
nothing but a minor storm, ladbaby's far to shrewd to let this golden goose slip through his hands.
his team will know exactly how to counter act any threat, almost certain he'll have a few major things lined up for next next week to propel him.
my advice to backers is dont panic, we've got this
Report Cider December 14, 2019 1:46 PM GMT
Xmas #1 is a very fluid betting event army. Streaming by it's nature is extremely reliable and consistent. We've now had it confirmed that Stormzy will be very much boosted due to his album release. Downloads are much harder to sustain and predict. Best thing to do is have them both onside, Stormzy being available in double figure prices in places is big value. He's more around a true 2/1 shot imv.
Report Cider December 14, 2019 1:47 PM GMT
Downloads for a charity single that is.
Report armagnac December 14, 2019 2:06 PM GMT
wise words tbf, ive covered especially after iac
Report armagnac December 14, 2019 2:31 PM GMT
ladbaby going to forest game and doing cross bar challenge, should be another surge
Report Cider December 14, 2019 2:50 PM GMT
Stormzy can be traded anyway once the market wakes up. Can take a while on this event Grin
Report armagnac December 14, 2019 3:02 PM GMT
surprising how clueless the bookies are on this, even more so than most specials. looks a nailed on two horse race barring an act of god
Report Cider December 14, 2019 3:13 PM GMT
Yes and you can make just as much profit trading those beaten as getting the winner. We're going to play the missing data game now Happy
Report armagnac December 14, 2019 3:29 PM GMT
lol interesting angle this year is he'll probably be leading midweek, motivation may slide but he'll do his best to keep it high
Report Splinun1 December 15, 2019 3:53 AM GMT
Only a two horse race. I also managed to cover Stormzy for a small green. Still have faith in Ladbaby taking this comfortably with him still being a massive green. Now to just sit back and relax!
Report armagnac December 15, 2019 8:10 AM GMT
Report Splinun1 December 15, 2019 8:24 AM GMT
I reckon if he wins he goes for it next year too but he’ll probs get a collaboration with a couple of big stars. Can imagine him not wanting to make history but having 3 in a row. Hard to think it was 9 years ago with RATM getting 512k downloads, these days you can get to number 1 most weeks with 40-50k. The games defo changed, hell, this forum could make a song in get it into the top 10 with some planning.
Report armagnac December 15, 2019 8:30 AM GMT
lol, yeah its a big joke these days but makes it so much easier for the average clown to get there. all ladbaby needs from here is the breakfast slot again, and i cant see any reason why he wont get invited back on. the bbc will jump on the making history angle.
i think 3 in a row will really push the public lol but if he got some big stars stupid enough to join him he'd probably win.
Report Cider December 15, 2019 1:17 PM GMT
Circa 60% again for Stormzy on spotify for Saturday. Looking at something around 70-80K, getting tougher for LadBaby!
Report armagnac December 15, 2019 3:09 PM GMT
I easily see ladbaby doing 100k this time cider
Latest clip on Facebook puts Chris moyles in his place and makes him look like a money grabbing retard
Report armagnac December 15, 2019 3:11 PM GMT
Gonna cause a big stir this is lol and sales Cool
Report Cider December 15, 2019 3:17 PM GMT
Yes LadBaby has had a bit of a rebound on iTunes. One would imagine he will get some reaction to getting called #1 too. But does that mean his followers take their foot off the gas?
Report Splinun1 December 15, 2019 4:26 PM GMT
Army, did you have Stormy onside?

That's the big worry with being ahead at the halfway mark, people who might have purchased it in the last day/two would decide not to buy. Would have been a little better if at the halfway mark he was behind. Nailed on two horse race.
Report armagnac December 15, 2019 4:34 PM GMT
Yes maaaaate Grin 2.5k return for ladbaby 1.2k stormzy
Report Splinun1 December 15, 2019 4:39 PM GMT
Jesus... I'm not far off the return for LB but my Stormzy return is just a few hundred. Unfortunately I got on LB at 2/1 on the HS. Next year I'll be looking at the market as soon as IAC finishes.
Report armagnac December 15, 2019 5:38 PM GMT
Yeah I should of been quicker, he was 6/1 when they priced up the night he announced it but I was to busy getting p1ssed.
Mrs spotted at 3am but I was so hanging, by the morning he was 3/1
Report armagnac December 15, 2019 5:40 PM GMT
Sales boost thanks to CM
Report Cider December 15, 2019 6:19 PM GMT
Wrangled a slot on First Look lol, coming back when he's called #1
Report armagnac December 15, 2019 7:30 PM GMT
Matched at 1.33
Report armagnac December 15, 2019 8:57 PM GMT
That tedious twonk master bate has posted his update
Ladbaby ahead

Report armagnac December 15, 2019 9:33 PM GMT
Great video up on Facebook about there visit to the Trussell trust, just as the above sc  um bag posts about them playing the same ‘tedious joke’ as last year.
I really hope Ladbaby shows him up for the cretin he is, so what there doing again.
Where’s your sense of reality you music loving nobody
Report Cider December 15, 2019 9:37 PM GMT
scores on the doors

LadBaby 33,400
Stormzy 12,900
Wham 11,800

Usual missing data provisos.
Report Cider December 15, 2019 9:40 PM GMT
Don't take is personally army Grin Some people can get very snobby/precious over music for some reason.
Report Splinun1 December 15, 2019 9:51 PM GMT
Thanks for the update Cider
Report Cider December 15, 2019 10:01 PM GMT
FWIW last year Amazon downloads were a day behind. If that's the case again the race is all but over.
Report armagnac December 15, 2019 11:14 PM GMT
bloke is a giant peach cider, but i'll forgive him when im withdrawing
thanks for updates Cool
Report armagnac December 15, 2019 11:18 PM GMT
ladbaby selling this like a reality pro, gotta think he's odds on to iac at some point.
absolutely stinks of doing it imo
Report scampi December 15, 2019 11:28 PM GMT
Yo Army, how about you release a Xmas single next year (just let us know on this forum first, so we can get our bet on ;) ).
Report armagnac December 15, 2019 11:34 PM GMT
lol should i stay or should i go now
Report armagnac December 15, 2019 11:39 PM GMT
moyles crying on twitter coz ladbaby fans are giving him sh1t, you reap what you sow you once fat tub of lard
Report armagnac December 16, 2019 9:08 AM GMT
this is like de ja vouz, after moyles outburst the bbc will yet again like last year have to step in to repair damage caused by someone talking under there banner.
the breakfast show looking more of a cert than ever now
Report armagnac December 16, 2019 9:13 AM GMT
i read the head of CoE spoke about how there are more food bank users than ever, welcome to the train mr welby Wink
Report Cider December 16, 2019 10:58 AM GMT
LadBaby - I Love Sausage Rolls (Swing Version) Laugh
Report Cider December 16, 2019 2:00 PM GMT
LadBaby 41,700
Stormzy 22,800
Wham 18,200

Usual missing data provisos.
Report Cider December 16, 2019 7:42 PM GMT
LadBaby now 1 & 2 in the iTunes chart Grin
Report Cider December 16, 2019 7:45 PM GMT
Granted it's a low bar but this is better than his first attempt .
Report armagnac December 16, 2019 9:56 PM GMT
All over innit, stormzy tweeted his support now

Report Cider December 17, 2019 1:20 PM GMT
LadBaby 54,800
Stormzy 30,900
Report Cider December 18, 2019 11:19 AM GMT
LadBaby 66,600
Stormzy 40,200
Report bardo December 18, 2019 12:24 PM GMT
seems like its in the bag for ladbaby

BTW ...where are you getting those figures from Cider ?
Report Cider December 18, 2019 1:07 PM GMT
Yes Stormzy tracking as expected so LadBaby has seen him off with the Swing version release. Those numbers are sourced from the OCC (not published publicly).
Report Jim Duncan December 21, 2019 1:28 AM GMT
...well played Army Grin
Report mach December 21, 2019 8:14 AM GMT
Well done ArmyCool
Report armagnac December 21, 2019 11:10 AM GMT
thanks chaps, off out soon to hopefully watch Liverpool win the world club championship for the 1st time Cool
im wondering if joe swash is huge each way value for dancing on ice ?
Report Cider December 21, 2019 11:15 AM GMT
Skated home army, nice one Cool
Report armagnac December 21, 2019 11:17 AM GMT
cheers cider, was my 100,000 sales prediction anywhere near ?
Report Cider December 21, 2019 11:23 AM GMT
85k downloads and 8k streaming.
Report armagnac December 21, 2019 12:48 PM GMT
oooh close, thought he'd do better than last year
Report timbuctooth December 21, 2019 3:55 PM GMT
Normally, I`d probably have ended up laying an initial AO green to red, maybe even max red; thanks to army`s OP, I just laid a small bit, for form`s sake, thought I`d see what happened over the next day or two, but nothing much changed other than the gradual shortening. `A winner`s a winner` and all that, but phuck me, this was a boring one, no fun at all! Oh for days like the NHS year, a really tight battle only finally coming together in the last day or two, odds-on pokes overturned, numerous springers, false favs, the lot! Still, paid for smallish losses on XF, SCD, and SPOTY, so thanks army, saved me from myself.
Report Splinun1 December 21, 2019 4:01 PM GMT
Thanks Army, kept pushing the thread, supremely confident and rightly so. Biggest green on specials market. Will be a nice Christmas in the Splinun household!
Report Cider December 21, 2019 4:27 PM GMT
Still plenty of fun tim, lol. Maybe not too much excitement on the winner on the exchange but it happened to be a lot less stressful also. As highlighted on here Stormzy was a no brainer trade 12s into sub 3s and it would likely have come down to the final day still undecided if LB hadn't have had his wildcard play of the second version.

What's quite interesting to me is that he's won it 2 years running but the way he got there was very different.

I'm assuming the general election affected liquidity negatively, and the lack of a market genuine front runner until LB announced he was running again.
Report armagnac December 22, 2019 10:47 AM GMT
glad to of helped tim and splin, all the best for christmas Cool

yes cider i think the lack of a strong fav before the announcement was a right shame, although i'd of probably missed the lays but it might of meant Lb's opening show being higher or sustaining decent value for a bit longer.
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