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armagnac
17 Nov 19 10:22
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 55,159 | Blogger: armagnac's blog
ive layed Ian Wright at 3.75, after last years disaster in this market im taking a song from Tim's hymn sheet.
lay the favs for starters Cool
right bunch of gumbie's in this field so makes sense why Ian's a reasonable fav, good backstory tbf.
from bad boy to great career and clean cut image, adopted a couple of kids if i recall so fair play to him.
could be a little to boring to go pillar to post though im thinking, cant see any funny stories or jam roly poly gaffes coming from wrighty.

as soon as we see a few runners take to camp life like home, relishing the challenges and fearing no critters i see nice 'safe' wrighty take a walk in the market.
only reason Ian is so short is the lack of depth in the field and the fact he's so well known. (mostly to men)
as th others settle in and we find out more about them, we could see quite an open market develop...well fingers crossed on that one.
hoping my very quiet tenure as FOTY ends as it started with some very decent profit Cool
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Report bearcub November 17, 2019 11:20 AM GMT
your spelling since becoming Foty has improved 87% Cool

Can you make mach FOTY 2020, His twitter feed is dire. Can't understand half of it, and if it wasn't for thr gifs i'd block the fecker
Report armagnac November 17, 2019 11:41 AM GMT
wish i could say the same about your spelling GrinLove
lucky for mach, twitter wont play a role in deciding the internet's most coveted honourable title.
he will of had to produced the goods on this fine forum to stand any chance, i will be having a good read through this years threads with a drop of the finest brandy when the time comes Cool
Report timbuctooth November 17, 2019 3:00 PM GMT
Yo, army, thought we might see you for this, welcome back!

I`ve got him max red as well but, in case anyone doubts the value of laying early favs, thought I`d dig up some evidence; as always, copyright horse`s amazing ``Pricewatch` thread. Here are the last pre-series prices for the favs, and their prices the next morning;

Essex 2.36-2.9 (Seem to remember you and I having fun with this one)
(First evicted!) Bullard 3.05-4.5  (And even more fun with this one!)
Tony Hadley 5.0-7.2
Scarlet 3.3-3.7
Jenny McAlpine 4.1-5.8
James McVey 5.3-9.2

As we can see, just the one winner, with all of the rest of them suffering immediate drifts of 50%-odd or more once the market saw a bit of the reality

And the last pre-series prices for the eventual winners;

Kian 12
Fogerty 17.5
Pattison 17
Scarlet 3.3
Toff 12.5
Harry 12.5

The market`s formed by middle-aged men who`ve known Wright for decades, grew up with him, cheered him scoring for England, but middle-aged football fans don`t choose our winner, MEMs do; LAY!!!
Report armagnac November 17, 2019 3:48 PM GMT
couldn't agree more tim, Ian looks a pretty weak fav to me in the grand scheme..only fun to be had here Happy
Report timbuctooth November 17, 2019 5:51 PM GMT
Top 4 in the betting taking 67%
Wright? Just far too short
Haskell? Who?
Kemp? Snotty little article
Kirk? Likely to drift before he enters, as others make early plays, grabbing the attention

Are these four really a less than 1/2 banker? At this stage? With so much to come? When you can bail to level at any price above 1.49, should the need arise? When we can expect more than just Kirk to arrive? When this market is ALWAYS a layers` market? I think not, so phuck it, max red the four of them, BRING IT ON!
Report timbuctooth November 17, 2019 10:08 PM GMT
Those four now taking just 53%, a 1.88 shot, 79% bigger already
Report timbuctooth November 17, 2019 10:54 PM GMT
End of the first show, they`re now 45%, 2.2; as near as dammit two and a half times bigger than pre-show. I fully understand people not liking a sea of max reds at the top of the ladder, even temporarily, but it`s a fantastic long term strategy. After all, it`s how bookies get rich.
Report hemsby November 18, 2019 4:01 AM GMT
About time you showed up FOTY !

I won’t be following IAC this year - Just too much on ATM.

GL - Hope it’s a profitable series for you Cool
Report bearcub November 18, 2019 7:38 AM GMT
Thanks Cool
Report armagnac November 19, 2019 9:20 AM GMT
lol hems, thanks.
shame you wont be around Sad

wright whinging on day one about food, he is a guaranteed sulker...gift to lay him early doors, absolutely no chance now the youngsters are looking strong.

proper gutted my lay of jenner at 4.5 wasn't matched, only got as low as 4.70...imo another complete no hoper, didn't realise she was 70. big walking potential as dont need the cash..have now layed at 6.2 and 6.4, missed the premium but something better than nothing.
the constant 'im helping (usa) the brits out again' will wear very thin with the GBP.

my 1st nibble of the series was a back of Myles at 10.5, of the younsters i think he has the most potential..seems the most grounded.
Report Libertine93 November 19, 2019 9:35 AM GMT
I agree Army, Myles looks like potential, possibly comparable to Roman Kemp and of the 2 I think Myles has more legs
Report mach November 19, 2019 9:57 AM GMT
prices are not far off at the moment, I would have Andrew W a little shorter and Roman a little bigger.
Report bearcub November 19, 2019 10:23 AM GMT
lols
Report timbuctooth November 19, 2019 12:13 PM GMT
Don`t forget, Myles was backed down to 5.9 on opening night, as we got to see his very real potential; this drift is purely down to a no-show last night but, given what we had previously seen, not seeing him much was down to camp events rather than his being a wallflower, and demands a decent topping up. Could easily romp this, my biggest green
Report armagnac November 19, 2019 10:23 PM GMT
good show here, managed to lay jossa at 5.0 and roman as well...thats the top 4 all layed
more than happy with myles in these early stages, the open market we was looking for has been achieved..long may it continue
Report armagnac November 19, 2019 11:29 PM GMT
had a little nibble on whyment, same green as myles now. only northerner in there apart from no chance adele, probably why she got the trial.
andrew has played divvy comical characters so pretty likeable on screen, ticks the pre-match boxes and worth a punt...should bring something to the party once settled in.
Report stu November 21, 2019 11:53 AM GMT
Liking your moves so far this year army, similar to my own must admit.

Good point about Kirky being the northerner too.
Report armagnac November 21, 2019 2:02 PM GMT
Cheers stu, yeah I was gonna start a Whyment train today but I’ve already said it all on here. All he has to do to hose up is add the promised humour and bring some entertainment, try his best in the trials and I think especially in this field will walk to victory.
Looks a total no brainer, the chips could be going all in very soon Cool
Report bearcub November 21, 2019 4:48 PM GMT
Have you ever had a winner on IAC army?

I seem to remember you being really confident about some right friggin turkeys CryCry
Report armagnac November 22, 2019 12:17 AM GMT
no better time to have my 1st winner whilst enjoying the throne Cool
Report armagnac November 22, 2019 11:03 AM GMT
CHOO CHOO
Report armagnac November 22, 2019 1:45 PM GMT
andy is a self confessed super fan, that is a massive box ticker
seals the deal, cherry on cake
start a queue
Report internet November 23, 2019 3:27 AM GMT
Opps
Report armagnac November 23, 2019 8:37 AM GMT
one quiet show in this field is absolutely no concern, you get the feeling with andy he only needs 3 or 4 crackers and he hoses up..plus when the field thins he wont get a quiet show.
i do think although the 2x odds was a step to far leading into his 2nd show, especially coming in late but he's inevitable to go back with probably just one more decent showing.
odds on to get the next public trial which will only entertain
Report armagnac November 23, 2019 10:46 AM GMT
as many have pointed out the bizarre price of roman is dumbfounding, has to be a decent lay at these odds AGAIN
if this was a two horse race with a naturally funny northerner verses a confident slightly cocky southerner there would only be one winner over 75% of the time and thats being generous to the southerner where unforeseen circumstances gets roman over the line.

the fact andy is joint fav after 10mins of really good airtime speaks bundles
Report armagnac November 24, 2019 8:28 AM GMT
another no show from andy, seems i have this uncanny knack for picking these runners Angry
brought jossa onside as appears shes either pretty unstable or playing the 'actress' either way this show has enough gullible viewers to get her over the line....haters already after her on SM which only strengthens her position with the non haters and her supporters.
i find it all rather tedious but these type of runners have cost me lots of times in the past so age has taught me to find caution.
Report mach November 24, 2019 1:47 PM GMT
After talking to some mem types in work today and viewing online comments,  I'm of Jac for the time being,  moaning is what the mems said.
Staying on kirk, not been seen much but he is such a good fit I will wait patiently for his price to contract to balance my book.
Report armagnac November 24, 2019 2:04 PM GMT
i agree with what you're saying mach but the do gooders who stay silent on sm are a force.
balancing the books is what i should of done at 2.7 Cry
Report stu November 24, 2019 3:51 PM GMT
Some Andy backers appearing again today it seems.
Report armagnac November 24, 2019 10:55 PM GMT
cruising here, 1st and 2nd favs with jossa producing all the right moves...andy should get a decent chunk of airtime tomorrow so lets see if he can produce the goods when called up on.
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 25, 2019 1:08 AM GMT
dont worry army.  Andy is the class of the field who is the only one who can effortlessly make you smile.  He's had 1 day where he eclipsed the field and 2 days in jail.  Now he's out of jail hopefully we get to see a lot more of him and brave JJ is there to pick up the pieces if we don't.
Report scampi November 25, 2019 6:09 AM GMT
Agree with those two most likely. Nadine to win if those two don't shine I reckon.
Report scampi November 25, 2019 6:18 AM GMT
Haha, us last 4 posters- we're probably the oldest old timers on this Forum.

CB beats Stu by 2 days!

Oh the good ole days of Specials when it was at it's Zenith- nothing beats them- now it's a shadow of it's former past :(
Report scampi November 25, 2019 6:20 AM GMT
Liquidity went to pot as soon as Premium Charge came in :(   

At least it's still good on IAC :)
Report scampi November 25, 2019 6:24 AM GMT
Army have you watched "Big Wednesday" yet (Gary Busey surfing movie)?

Timbuctooth have you watched "Dune" [1984] yet (will be your fav film ever as soon as you've wathed it i reckon ;) )?
Report scampi November 25, 2019 6:27 AM GMT
Haven't posted for yonks, then five posts come along all at once!

Where's Delightful?
Report armagnac November 25, 2019 8:26 AM GMT
cheers Clyde, massively boosts my confidence to see you're riding the same wave Cool
Report armagnac November 25, 2019 8:28 AM GMT
alright scamps, ive just this second searched for it..not coming up on netflix and sky want £7.99 for a film over 40 years old Sad
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 25, 2019 8:55 AM GMT
morning scampi.  17+ years Sad.  Only time I lost on the outright was in 2002 when Tuffers got backed down from evens to 1.2 on the final day (he was my best result the day before)  Unbeknownst to me they were showing text supports on the red button live feeds and Tuffers was getting 50% of them.  The best series were the two in 2004, where you had overnight live feeds, and liquid side markets.  Won £1k on a btt market even.  No social media and plenty of decent polls.  2004 was potentially devastating with Johnny Rotten walking and Kerry almost walking.  Personally recall having around £700 on female winner on here when JR walked, which is an example of how liquid all the markets were.  Lord Brocket going from hero to zero in the space of one episode. 

Just turned on the TV this morning and first face I see is Kirk in Corrie.  Hopefully a good omen
Report mach November 25, 2019 1:39 PM GMT
kirk gave an interview about IAC  prior to going in, he looks to have the right stuff, just needs some screen time, I don't even think he will need much to win.

https://www.ok.co.uk/tv/reality/andy-whyment-im-a-celeb-20955854
Report scampi November 25, 2019 6:33 PM GMT
Hi CB, yes liquidity was HUGE on IACGMOOH back in the day. And the forum would be buzzing with probably 30+ threads a day coming up with some great betting ideas. Thankfully liquidity is still big enough now to make it worth while betting on ulike say the weekly SCD side markets. I really do miss the olden times on here :(
Report armagnac November 26, 2019 3:42 PM GMT
the market looks bang on to me as it stands, roman remaining solid annoys me..would like a mini drift to 6+ to level him but i only see that happening if andy gets more airtime around camp, which would no doubt see him go fav again...saying that i think jossa has her supporters eating out of her hand and right now looks the winner.
not massively concerned if andy drifts a little as i would see that as a chance of a top up at generous odds, thought he had a decent show last night considering hes been invisible for the 3 previous nights.
andy is guaranteed to see off the dead wood and as camp thins would surely start getting his chunks of airtime, which for him will be crucial in locking in that huge northern support...whilst the rest bar no chance adele have to split the southern support.
Report armagnac November 26, 2019 10:40 PM GMT
quiet show for jossa see's her drift, roman got the teflon vibe about him...wont ever drift till leaving before andy, who after having a few decent moments strides back to clear fav.
only needs airtime to p1ss up imo, facebook absolutely adore him, massive big up at the start of extra camp was nice to see.
he's just a genuinely nice northern bloke with a bit of humour about him, the more you see the more you like...he is gonna have a whopping one sided vote by the time we get to the business end.

anyone having there 1st bet, 3.5 is big value..its not a matter of if he goes odds on...its simply when.
Report timbuctooth November 26, 2019 11:02 PM GMT
Yep, Jac on the missing list two nights on the trot, vaguely surprised she hasn`t drifted a bit more, had to lay some for now.
Report armagnac November 26, 2019 11:06 PM GMT
andy instantly out to 4.3 after camp leader news lol the don says at 5's though Crazy
Report armagnac November 27, 2019 11:43 PM GMT
layed a bit of jossa off, shes nowhere near the class of other recent girl winners for me but keeping her green so not totally writing her off but think the big danger to andy is roman so reducing his red at the cost of some of her green was a no brainer.
got a nice lay of jenner at 5 during the show, worst thing that could of happened for jenner was andy getting 2nd in command as he basically steals all of her thunder now. andy seals every scene he talks in, just a class above, odds on looming
Report armagnac November 27, 2019 11:47 PM GMT
quality bush telegraph for andy on extra camp, you could hear the presenters all p1ssing themselves.
they mentioned him getting 2nd camp leader when ant and dec was there and you could tell there all fully on board his train...well mine really.
Report bearcub November 27, 2019 11:50 PM GMT
lol
Report armagnac November 27, 2019 11:57 PM GMT
the only value i see presently is nadine to finish top 3, arguably should be a lot shorter..definitely 4th fav
Report Lifter November 28, 2019 12:02 AM GMT
I'd have her and Jaq around the same odds sharing 4th spot
Report armagnac November 28, 2019 12:12 AM GMT
deffo a pack runner
Report armagnac November 28, 2019 8:53 AM GMT
had a few more tinkles in he market this morning, layed more of jossa off and finally greened kemp up to same as jossa now, seems inevitable teflon kemp will go clear 2nd fav imo...also made nadine a healthy green (should of last night) seems daft shes double the price of jenner and jossa, surely if she continues to impress she'll make her way up the ladder.
jenner only red for me now with top 5 in the market, not concerned by that for the time being..expecting andy to go odds on pretty soon as its his to lose from here, just needs to make the edit..simple as that, which probably means getting involved which he has been doing...hopefully his confidence is growing around the others now he knows them a bit better.
Report mach November 28, 2019 2:00 PM GMT
Nadine after her price coming in since yesterday jumped back to 24/1, she may have said the dreaded words, beware of insiders
Jac after drifting since yesterday has been backed inConfused
Report bearcub November 28, 2019 2:49 PM GMT
Jacq passed the immunity trial, Nadine didn't

It's not rocket science Plain
Report mach November 28, 2019 3:56 PM GMT
That makes no difference to their chance of winning, if you come bottom of a six way vote and are gone you were never winning anyway.
Being good at trials does not correlate with being popular, not trying or giving up is a negative.
Report bearcub November 28, 2019 5:50 PM GMT
You really are a real life Sherlock Shocked
Report armagnac November 30, 2019 2:13 PM GMT
so the shootout is on, added a bit more green to kemp keeping more on andy as i still see a northern win who's naturally more funny and entertaining, kemp its all forced with his media attitude taking over combined with a desperation to win. andy just seems to be plodding on happy go lucky.
both seem to smash there trails with ease so no edge for either there, time to sit back and see who the public side with.
jossa's antics cant compete with either in the final week for me and nads still top value for a place
Report bearcub November 30, 2019 4:31 PM GMT
Thanks for keeping us updated

Riveting stuff tbf Cool
Report armagnac November 30, 2019 4:39 PM GMT
too easy this RTV malarkey Cool
Report timbuctooth November 30, 2019 5:18 PM GMT
Should have guessed it was you backing him in!
Report armagnac November 30, 2019 5:29 PM GMT
bit of a no brainer tim, the annoying camera hogging sh1t has been the best campsite since day 1, still think andy's ability to capture the audience with ease still see's him win but to think anyone else can challenge these two is ludicrous
Report armagnac November 30, 2019 6:02 PM GMT
for the record, none of todays roman money is me. i was backing late last night down to 3.75, i awoke to 4.0
Report bearcub November 30, 2019 6:11 PM GMT
He probably topped the 249 phone votes they had
Report mach December 3, 2019 11:44 AM GMT
Very little money about to back Roman, I think he will be drifting over 3 today(4 is probably about right), many of the others are meh but Roman has done nothing to justify his current price.
Get your Roman lays in while you can still lay him low!Wink
Report mach December 3, 2019 12:44 PM GMT
lpm 3.6 Wink
Report Lifter December 3, 2019 2:01 PM GMT
Double it and then his price will be fair
Report timbuctooth December 3, 2019 10:57 PM GMT
He hit at least 4.9 tonight
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