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armagnac
17 Nov 19 10:22
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Date Joined: 28 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 55,710 | Blogger: armagnac's blog
ive layed Ian Wright at 3.75, after last years disaster in this market im taking a song from Tim's hymn sheet.
lay the favs for starters Cool
right bunch of gumbie's in this field so makes sense why Ian's a reasonable fav, good backstory tbf.
from bad boy to great career and clean cut image, adopted a couple of kids if i recall so fair play to him.
could be a little to boring to go pillar to post though im thinking, cant see any funny stories or jam roly poly gaffes coming from wrighty.

as soon as we see a few runners take to camp life like home, relishing the challenges and fearing no critters i see nice 'safe' wrighty take a walk in the market.
only reason Ian is so short is the lack of depth in the field and the fact he's so well known. (mostly to men)
as th others settle in and we find out more about them, we could see quite an open market develop...well fingers crossed on that one.
hoping my very quiet tenure as FOTY ends as it started with some very decent profit Cool

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Replies: 67
By:
bearcub
When: 17 Nov 19 12:20
your spelling since becoming Foty has improved 87% Cool

Can you make mach FOTY 2020, His twitter feed is dire. Can't understand half of it, and if it wasn't for thr gifs i'd block the fecker
By:
armagnac
When: 17 Nov 19 12:41
wish i could say the same about your spelling GrinLove
lucky for mach, twitter wont play a role in deciding the internet's most coveted honourable title.
he will of had to produced the goods on this fine forum to stand any chance, i will be having a good read through this years threads with a drop of the finest brandy when the time comes Cool
By:
timbuctooth
When: 17 Nov 19 16:00
Yo, army, thought we might see you for this, welcome back!

I`ve got him max red as well but, in case anyone doubts the value of laying early favs, thought I`d dig up some evidence; as always, copyright horse`s amazing ``Pricewatch` thread. Here are the last pre-series prices for the favs, and their prices the next morning;

Essex 2.36-2.9 (Seem to remember you and I having fun with this one)
(First evicted!) Bullard 3.05-4.5  (And even more fun with this one!)
Tony Hadley 5.0-7.2
Scarlet 3.3-3.7
Jenny McAlpine 4.1-5.8
James McVey 5.3-9.2

As we can see, just the one winner, with all of the rest of them suffering immediate drifts of 50%-odd or more once the market saw a bit of the reality

And the last pre-series prices for the eventual winners;

Kian 12
Fogerty 17.5
Pattison 17
Scarlet 3.3
Toff 12.5
Harry 12.5

The market`s formed by middle-aged men who`ve known Wright for decades, grew up with him, cheered him scoring for England, but middle-aged football fans don`t choose our winner, MEMs do; LAY!!!
By:
armagnac
When: 17 Nov 19 16:48
couldn't agree more tim, Ian looks a pretty weak fav to me in the grand scheme..only fun to be had here Happy
By:
timbuctooth
When: 17 Nov 19 18:51
Top 4 in the betting taking 67%
Wright? Just far too short
Haskell? Who?
Kemp? Snotty little article
Kirk? Likely to drift before he enters, as others make early plays, grabbing the attention

Are these four really a less than 1/2 banker? At this stage? With so much to come? When you can bail to level at any price above 1.49, should the need arise? When we can expect more than just Kirk to arrive? When this market is ALWAYS a layers` market? I think not, so phuck it, max red the four of them, BRING IT ON!
By:
timbuctooth
When: 17 Nov 19 23:08
Those four now taking just 53%, a 1.88 shot, 79% bigger already
By:
timbuctooth
When: 17 Nov 19 23:54
End of the first show, they`re now 45%, 2.2; as near as dammit two and a half times bigger than pre-show. I fully understand people not liking a sea of max reds at the top of the ladder, even temporarily, but it`s a fantastic long term strategy. After all, it`s how bookies get rich.
By:
hemsby
When: 18 Nov 19 05:01
About time you showed up FOTY !

I won’t be following IAC this year - Just too much on ATM.

GL - Hope it’s a profitable series for you Cool
By:
bearcub
When: 18 Nov 19 08:38
Thanks Cool
By:
armagnac
When: 19 Nov 19 10:20
lol hems, thanks.
shame you wont be around Sad

wright whinging on day one about food, he is a guaranteed sulker...gift to lay him early doors, absolutely no chance now the youngsters are looking strong.

proper gutted my lay of jenner at 4.5 wasn't matched, only got as low as 4.70...imo another complete no hoper, didn't realise she was 70. big walking potential as dont need the cash..have now layed at 6.2 and 6.4, missed the premium but something better than nothing.
the constant 'im helping (usa) the brits out again' will wear very thin with the GBP.

my 1st nibble of the series was a back of Myles at 10.5, of the younsters i think he has the most potential..seems the most grounded.
By:
Libertine93
When: 19 Nov 19 10:35
I agree Army, Myles looks like potential, possibly comparable to Roman Kemp and of the 2 I think Myles has more legs
By:
mach
When: 19 Nov 19 10:57
prices are not far off at the moment, I would have Andrew W a little shorter and Roman a little bigger.
By:
bearcub
When: 19 Nov 19 11:23
lols
By:
timbuctooth
When: 19 Nov 19 13:13
Don`t forget, Myles was backed down to 5.9 on opening night, as we got to see his very real potential; this drift is purely down to a no-show last night but, given what we had previously seen, not seeing him much was down to camp events rather than his being a wallflower, and demands a decent topping up. Could easily romp this, my biggest green
By:
armagnac
When: 19 Nov 19 23:23
good show here, managed to lay jossa at 5.0 and roman as well...thats the top 4 all layed
more than happy with myles in these early stages, the open market we was looking for has been achieved..long may it continue
By:
armagnac
When: 20 Nov 19 00:29
had a little nibble on whyment, same green as myles now. only northerner in there apart from no chance adele, probably why she got the trial.
andrew has played divvy comical characters so pretty likeable on screen, ticks the pre-match boxes and worth a punt...should bring something to the party once settled in.
By:
stu
When: 21 Nov 19 12:53
Liking your moves so far this year army, similar to my own must admit.

Good point about Kirky being the northerner too.
By:
armagnac
When: 21 Nov 19 15:02
Cheers stu, yeah I was gonna start a Whyment train today but I’ve already said it all on here. All he has to do to hose up is add the promised humour and bring some entertainment, try his best in the trials and I think especially in this field will walk to victory.
Looks a total no brainer, the chips could be going all in very soon Cool
By:
bearcub
When: 21 Nov 19 17:48
Have you ever had a winner on IAC army?

I seem to remember you being really confident about some right friggin turkeys CryCry
By:
armagnac
When: 22 Nov 19 01:17
no better time to have my 1st winner whilst enjoying the throne Cool
By:
armagnac
When: 22 Nov 19 12:03
CHOO CHOO
By:
armagnac
When: 22 Nov 19 14:45
andy is a self confessed super fan, that is a massive box ticker
seals the deal, cherry on cake
start a queue
By:
internet
When: 23 Nov 19 04:27
Opps
By:
armagnac
When: 23 Nov 19 09:37
one quiet show in this field is absolutely no concern, you get the feeling with andy he only needs 3 or 4 crackers and he hoses up..plus when the field thins he wont get a quiet show.
i do think although the 2x odds was a step to far leading into his 2nd show, especially coming in late but he's inevitable to go back with probably just one more decent showing.
odds on to get the next public trial which will only entertain
By:
armagnac
When: 23 Nov 19 11:46
as many have pointed out the bizarre price of roman is dumbfounding, has to be a decent lay at these odds AGAIN
if this was a two horse race with a naturally funny northerner verses a confident slightly cocky southerner there would only be one winner over 75% of the time and thats being generous to the southerner where unforeseen circumstances gets roman over the line.

the fact andy is joint fav after 10mins of really good airtime speaks bundles
By:
armagnac
When: 24 Nov 19 09:28
another no show from andy, seems i have this uncanny knack for picking these runners Angry
brought jossa onside as appears shes either pretty unstable or playing the 'actress' either way this show has enough gullible viewers to get her over the line....haters already after her on SM which only strengthens her position with the non haters and her supporters.
i find it all rather tedious but these type of runners have cost me lots of times in the past so age has taught me to find caution.
By:
mach
When: 24 Nov 19 14:47
After talking to some mem types in work today and viewing online comments,  I'm of Jac for the time being,  moaning is what the mems said.
Staying on kirk, not been seen much but he is such a good fit I will wait patiently for his price to contract to balance my book.
By:
armagnac
When: 24 Nov 19 15:04
i agree with what you're saying mach but the do gooders who stay silent on sm are a force.
balancing the books is what i should of done at 2.7 Cry
By:
stu
When: 24 Nov 19 16:51
Some Andy backers appearing again today it seems.
By:
armagnac
When: 24 Nov 19 23:55
cruising here, 1st and 2nd favs with jossa producing all the right moves...andy should get a decent chunk of airtime tomorrow so lets see if he can produce the goods when called up on.
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 25 Nov 19 02:08
dont worry army.  Andy is the class of the field who is the only one who can effortlessly make you smile.  He's had 1 day where he eclipsed the field and 2 days in jail.  Now he's out of jail hopefully we get to see a lot more of him and brave JJ is there to pick up the pieces if we don't.
By:
scampi
When: 25 Nov 19 07:09
Agree with those two most likely. Nadine to win if those two don't shine I reckon.
By:
scampi
When: 25 Nov 19 07:18
Haha, us last 4 posters- we're probably the oldest old timers on this Forum.

CB beats Stu by 2 days!

Oh the good ole days of Specials when it was at it's Zenith- nothing beats them- now it's a shadow of it's former past :(
By:
scampi
When: 25 Nov 19 07:20
Liquidity went to pot as soon as Premium Charge came in :(   

At least it's still good on IAC :)
By:
scampi
When: 25 Nov 19 07:24
Army have you watched "Big Wednesday" yet (Gary Busey surfing movie)?

Timbuctooth have you watched "Dune" [1984] yet (will be your fav film ever as soon as you've wathed it i reckon ;) )?
By:
scampi
When: 25 Nov 19 07:27
Haven't posted for yonks, then five posts come along all at once!

Where's Delightful?
By:
armagnac
When: 25 Nov 19 09:26
cheers Clyde, massively boosts my confidence to see you're riding the same wave Cool
By:
armagnac
When: 25 Nov 19 09:28
alright scamps, ive just this second searched for it..not coming up on netflix and sky want £7.99 for a film over 40 years old Sad
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 25 Nov 19 09:55
morning scampi.  17+ years Sad.  Only time I lost on the outright was in 2002 when Tuffers got backed down from evens to 1.2 on the final day (he was my best result the day before)  Unbeknownst to me they were showing text supports on the red button live feeds and Tuffers was getting 50% of them.  The best series were the two in 2004, where you had overnight live feeds, and liquid side markets.  Won £1k on a btt market even.  No social media and plenty of decent polls.  2004 was potentially devastating with Johnny Rotten walking and Kerry almost walking.  Personally recall having around £700 on female winner on here when JR walked, which is an example of how liquid all the markets were.  Lord Brocket going from hero to zero in the space of one episode. 

Just turned on the TV this morning and first face I see is Kirk in Corrie.  Hopefully a good omen
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