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Henry VIII
29 Oct 18 10:18
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Date Joined: 31 Jul 06
| Topic/replies: 21,444 | Blogger: Henry VIII's blog
LPM 9.4     Spread 9 - 9.2

I've noticed a group-think against Ashley here. I remember a convo here about DVO when her price was high - "people don't like trained dancers". Every year there are loads of "unfair" comments on sm about the trained ones but it always comes to nothing. DVO had a much lower ultimate bottom price than her price at the time of the convo.

The best dancers often fail to win not because of any kind public bias - the public are fair - but when they lack emotion in their dance, which is instead provided by the dancer who wins. Ashley won't suffer this. She's one of the most emotional and expressive as well as being imo the best dancer.

The spotlight hasn't been on Ashley as much as a couple of the others. Cheers and sm tend to go with the aura the judges' applauds give rather than their marks. The judges over praise and over mark the inexperienced and under-mark the experienced early on to create a more interesting competition. Later in the competition they get more and more accurate. I think Stacey peaked far too early. And her job may take its toll on her dancing later in the competition.

Nicole Scherzinger won the American version of this so ****cat Dolls have winning form.

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Replies: 58
By:
Cider
When: 29 Oct 18 12:21
It's not really group think is it, the show is littered with strong performing female ringers that got beat. And this one is an American to boot. However there's a reasonable argument that the price differential with Faye is too big. But Faye's presence means that Ashley has big competition even to be called the best ringer, so the 'best dancer regardless' vote if there is one is split.
By:
timbuctooth
When: 29 Oct 18 14:12
Having her as by far my biggest green, and having read nothing on here except `she can`t win`, for two months, certainly has had an air of groupthink about it to me, and Henry`s post is the first time I can recall anyone else doubting this. Matched at up to 12.5, and with a trading range around 9.0 is utter madness. Whether she actually goes on to win or not, who knows, but she won`t be 9.0 on final night.
By:
Cider
When: 29 Oct 18 14:55
Group think I presume is where multiple people are sucked or swayed into giving the same opinion even if they don't actually believe it. As I mentioned, the trend is already there that strong females ringers tend to get beaten, and a foreigner is yet to triumph. The prevailing price is easily explained, whether you agree with it or not. For Ashley to hit 2's it's going to need a very strange and unlikely set of circumstances.
By:
armagnac
When: 29 Oct 18 14:57
two rampers v mr logical

know where my money is going Mischief
By:
Cider
When: 29 Oct 18 15:15
That was a bit blunt to be fair, and it's fair enough to discuss it. The market gives Ashley a circa 11% chance of winning, which is toppy for me. But the OR factors in the chance of her making the final which is obviously high.
By:
squares
When: 29 Oct 18 15:19
I have nothing to add because Cider has said it far better than I could.
By:
timbuctooth
When: 29 Oct 18 15:19
Doesn`t have to be as extreme as `multiple people are sucked or swayed into giving the same opinion even if they don't actually believe it`; more often, it`s simply a case of forgetting to actively question frequently stated opinions, kinda glossing over it, thinking `yeah, that makes sense`. Easy done, we all forget sometimes.
By:
squares
When: 29 Oct 18 15:23
I still disagree - I would say it is years and years of reality tv experience and analysis which has brought reality tv stalwarts to this current opinion.  I certainly wouldn't believe it of any of them to be complacent or forgetful.

And should there be some sort of change in dynamics over the next few weeks, current opinion could change.
By:
timbuctooth
When: 29 Oct 18 15:31
Are you saying you give 100% full attention, analyse every word, and ponder the deeper meanings hidden within, after reading 28 consecutive posts from army re-stating his case? Sorry, army, but they`re  better men than me!
By:
squares
When: 29 Oct 18 15:33
No, I don't ready any of army's posts
By:
squares
When: 29 Oct 18 15:34
read* even
By:
five leaves left
When: 29 Oct 18 15:34
lol squares
By:
timbuctooth
When: 29 Oct 18 15:39
That was funny!
By:
five leaves left
When: 29 Oct 18 15:41
Very much with cider & squares. The only way she'll trade considerably lower, is if she reaches the final, assuming she gets that far, without hitting the B2.
That strikes me as very unlikely.
By:
timbuctooth
When: 29 Oct 18 15:57
Oops! Just remembered that, whatever our thoughts on groupthink in general, I may be being influenced in this particular case by the fact that I`ve vaguely been in love with her since IAC days. She`s suuuuuuch a delight!
By:
armagnac
When: 29 Oct 18 16:11
Are you saying you give 100% full attention, analyse every word, and ponder the deeper meanings hidden within Love
By:
LOU MACARIS TARTAN B
When: 29 Oct 18 16:21
Have to agree with Henry here that her price is far too high but at the same time can't see her being a 2/1 shot.

For me she is JUST the best dancer closely followed by Faye but the fact she's a bit of as typical 'loud' American, is perceived by some to be 'trained' (which I personally think is ridiculous as, doing a bit of 'boom boom boom' with The ****cat Dolls is hardly The Foxtrot, Tango etc is it)goes against her.

Yes DVO was just as good, Alexander last year etc etc but they don't go on to win do they.

She MAY well win it but for me if I had to choose I'd go with a popular, improving, no experience Stacey as the one to beat.

All three of the girls are to the penny the same winner for me so no need to 'Ramp' which is what most do on here.  You could look back at some 'In Running' comments (I'm out as a rule and watch it later) to see stuff like 'Ashley this, Ashley that' which are all derogatory ............. yet she's fabulous every week!

Just book talkers but if that makes them feel better when really they know they're Red and in trouble with her then hey ho.
By:
squares
When: 29 Oct 18 16:55
It seems that there is agreement that Faye and Ashley's prices should be closer as Cider stated initially.

The difference with The ****cat Dolls in comparison to other contestants from Girl Bands (such as Louise, Alesha, Frankie Bridge, Mollie King, Michelle Williams, Rachel Stevens - note a couple of those couldn't dance very well) is that it is fairly well known that initially The ****cat Dolls were dancers, put together by choreographers to be a dance group - and the singing came later.

So dancing was their first skill and their experience with dance is more advanced than those who may have studied dance at stage school, joined girl bands as singers and then performed in pop videos.  Then obviously those who have done the latter will have an advantage gained from learning routines above those who have never danced.  There are levels and layers.  There have also been those who have musical theatre experience (DVO and Faye) and those who have already had dance training with the BBC and SCD pros (Caroline Flack).  TBF it is quite difficult to find female celebrities in the entertain world who have no experience of dance.

I disagree the in-running thread is full of comments which are all derogatory about Ashley's dancing ability.  Nobody disputes her dance ability, she is a dancer after all.  We are expecting her to dance brilliantly, she does, job done but because of the high expectations there is a distinct lack of a wow factor.
By:
Henry VIII
When: 29 Oct 18 17:02
Cider like I said in the OP I believe there were good reasons when the best dancers failed and public bias against prior training wasn't ever one of them.

Army accusing people of being rampers Cry

Lou I agree with most of what you say. She's not a typical loud American, she's lovely and almost won IAC. So she has form on RTV and the public love for her. It's widely known that she has lived here for years.
By:
LOU MACARIS TARTAN B
When: 29 Oct 18 17:18
Squares

What I'm trying to say about Ash is certain people on here refuse to say a good thing about her when they can blatantly see she is fabulous every week and very much in with a shout.

They vent their anger/frustrations by only typing derogatory stuff during the live show, never anything complimentary.

Look at these over the last weeks:

FIG:  "The lovely Ashley.  Just keeps drifting"[:laugh:]

SQUARES: "Really Struggling to do humble"

HEMS:  "Virtually no chance of winning"

FIG AGAIN:  "Annoying American Mum flown in"

SQUARES: "We know you can dance, We know you are American, We know you love yourself, We know you are annoying .... Now Pheck off"

See what I mean, all derogatory stuff, no mention of how good she is.  You must all be large Red on her and this sort of posting makes you feel better.
By:
armagnac
When: 29 Oct 18 17:22
wow, he puts bear to shame....should be FOTY
By:
squares
When: 29 Oct 18 17:22
and from the most recent show:-


johnnyrant 27 Oct 18 18:44 
Great from Ashley

squares 27 Oct 18 18:44 
really good - as expected

Danzaa 27 Oct 18 18:44 
Big score maybe, mediocre PV tho

squares 27 Oct 18 18:44 
Ashley looks so much better and younger like that






all derogatory and
no mention of how good she is


we can all cherry pick
By:
armagnac
When: 29 Oct 18 17:25
popcorn tasting fantastic Excited
By:
squares
When: 29 Oct 18 17:26
I think some people take the general chit chat throughout the in-running threads a little too seriously when the vast majority is all in jest, and tbf reading back when you haven't been there "live" makes it very difficult to understand the nuance of the moment.
By:
LOU MACARIS TARTAN B
When: 29 Oct 18 17:27
Sq

I haven't mentioned Johnny though have I?  He's obviously onside with her.

Fair enough you said "Really Good - as expected"

Danzaa doesn't seem to post much on here and again I never mentioned him did I?

Once again your last comment fair enough.

I'm not having a go here Squares just pointing out that if people don't have a good word to sday about probably the best dancer in it then they must be large Red and just can't bare to see her do well so name call her etc.
By:
Cider
When: 29 Oct 18 17:32
Lou, since you don't do live do you read the out of date live threads for fun Grin

In case you've not realised, posts on live in running threads are exaggerated and mostly banter. Lots of tongue in cheek and irony. I don't recommend interpreting all the posts as 100% serious Happy
By:
squares
When: 29 Oct 18 17:34
I just posted the comments from those on the thread at the time of last weekend's dance.  I haven't scoured the forum for the best or worst I could find.

Why should anybody worry if they have a large negative position on Ashley.  It is not as if she started out at 9/2 and is now odds on favourite.  As far as I am aware everyone is old enough, ugly enough and clued up enough to be comfortable with whatever position they have on her and can say what they like about her or anyone else for that matter.

Even more odd, why should anyone else be so concerned with other forumite's positions on her - or anyone else for that matter.
By:
LOU MACARIS TARTAN B
When: 29 Oct 18 17:36
Cider

Yes because I'm generally out as a rule I catch up maybe early hours, sometimes the following morning with the show then browse the thread that Squares starts for that night.

Perhaps I do take the posts a bit serious but I do find it a good indication of who has a certain dancer against them.

It's like hearing a Real Madrid fan saying "Yer that Lionel Messi's rubbish" as they just can't bare to admit how great he is.  Smileyfaceythingy.
By:
Cider
When: 29 Oct 18 17:39
Yeah and if a Real fan stated Messi is a great footballer it would be stating the bleeding obvious.
By:
LOU MACARIS TARTAN B
When: 29 Oct 18 17:39
Sq

Just evening out the playing field that's all.  All the people who have nothing good to say about the best dancer (because they're Red) then there's someone like myself who's pretty much saying "But hold on a minute"

Why did you say them things about then Squares when all she's doing is the best dance she can, as are all of the others.  Can she help it that she does it better than them?
By:
LOU MACARIS TARTAN B
When: 29 Oct 18 17:40
Cider

What be honest about him you mean?  Oh yes I forgot there's almost none of that on this forum is there!  Wink!
By:
squares
When: 29 Oct 18 17:47
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
By:
LOU MACARIS TARTAN B
When: 29 Oct 18 17:50
Sq

You never answered my question?  Don't worry your silence speaks a thouasand reds!
By:
Cider
When: 29 Oct 18 17:50
If you want to read every week people stating Ashley has danced great, you're going to be disappointed. It's a given, and would be even more pointless than ir posts are now. Most of us are here for the betting and the odd bit of banter. It's not the open university.
By:
LOU MACARIS TARTAN B
When: 29 Oct 18 17:50
"NEXT"!
By:
LOU MACARIS TARTAN B
When: 29 Oct 18 17:50
"NEXT"
By:
squares
When: 29 Oct 18 17:52
So all those people on the Digital Spy forum and Daily Mail comments with opinions, liking or disliking someone for whatever reason - they would all have a financial/betting position on it then.
By:
hemsby
When: 29 Oct 18 17:52
This Fred is busy Grin

The answer to H’s initial question is of course “never”.

Simply put the market nowadays (this year in particular) is too cute to be fooled as in recent years.The days of DVO,Alexandra Burke,Aston etc trading very short appear to have passed.

I personally got caught out this year building greens on ringers who I felt sure would shorten when their dance ability was shown.If this year is anything to go by,those days are gone.

You have to adapt in RTV betting or you get left behind.Lesson learnt.
By:
LOU MACARIS TARTAN B
When: 29 Oct 18 17:53
Oh no of course not but on here we're all gamblers and have Reds and Greens on all/some of the dancers.
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