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ouch
26 Oct 18 21:14
Joined:
Date Joined: 02 May 09
| Topic/replies: 35 | Blogger: ouch's blog
Before I start, I am not crying here. I was heavy red on Lewis, and I wanted to lay it off today. I noticed this morning and into the afternoon, that there was some decent sized money coming in against Lewis. I took about half my red out against the money. However, it all looked wrong to me.
Lewis was free and clear. He had 40+% of the vote according to the polls and some of the most committed fans. They had already stated no more game changers, implying no more evictions. His odds should have been narrowing, not widening.
Why was this money coming in against Lewis so soon before an announcement? I want those accounts looked at. Were they new accounts. Was this unusual money? If all the money was legitimate
What just happened looked wrong. The trading today looked to me like insider knowledge. I want it to be looked into. If it was just people with massive green taking profit, I have no problem, but if it was insider knowledge, I want it looked into. How should I move this forwards?
Pause Switch to Standard View Suspicious betting patters wrt Lewis
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Report Henry VIII October 26, 2018 8:19 PM BST
"I was heavy red on Lewis, and I wanted to lay it off today."

How can you lay off a red?

The layers never went above low 2s.
Report bearcub October 26, 2018 8:21 PM BST
No more Gamechangers didn't imply no more evictions
Report ouch October 26, 2018 8:23 PM BST
Maybe I used terms you don't like. I was backing Lewis to remove the red, if you prefer that.
Report blank October 26, 2018 8:23 PM BST
I thought he drifted from around 2.1 to 2.5 until he suddenly shot out in minutes when the news broke. Is that what you saw?
Report ouch October 26, 2018 8:24 PM BST
"No more Gamechangers didn't imply no more evictions" - debatable, but there was no reason for the movement that I could see. And now we can see a very good reason for it. If the accounts all look normal, and the bets, I would not care. I want it to be looked at. I follow markets closely. This felt wrong to me.
Report ouch October 26, 2018 8:26 PM BST
"I thought he drifted from around 2.1 to 2.5 until he suddenly shot out in minutes when the news broke. Is that what you saw?"

Pretty much, but there was some decent money coming down. I am sure it could be nothing, but I was watching it thinking this is odd. It suited me so I didn't question it too much, however now I am wondering. Did the account, pushing the money know this was coming?
Report timbuctooth October 26, 2018 8:28 PM BST
I didn`t see it, couldn`t say if it was suspicious or not, but you`ve got no chance, it`s all part of the game.  The racing markets, for example, are formed entirely with insider knowledge, so if betfair were to look into every example of dodgy betting patterns, across all their markets, there`d be no betfair left!
Report armagnac October 26, 2018 8:29 PM BST
He slightly drifted coz akeem and Cameron had market support today
Nothing suspicious at all imo
Report armagnac October 26, 2018 8:30 PM BST
And I watch big brother markets every waking second
Report Henry VIII October 26, 2018 8:35 PM BST
I don't think I agree with that Tim. If there's clearly insider dealing why not check out the accounts involved.

However in this case I don't think there was. I think blank is right. I've just checked. There were lumps waiting to back Lewis in the mid 2s up until 16:53 (I have no record immediately beyond then). Then at 17:32 (no record immediately before that) the news was already public.

ouch if someone uses terms in an Alice and Wonderland nonsense way I ask them to clarify. Don't take it personally.
Report Henry VIII October 26, 2018 8:37 PM BST
There was also money waiting to lay Akeem in the mid 3s, but not so conclusive as with Lewis as only smaller amounts were visible.
Report five leaves left October 26, 2018 8:45 PM BST
I trust army on this matter Cool
Report Henry VIII October 26, 2018 8:47 PM BST
I can now say that the early bird hit BF at 17:23 which appears to be just after the twitter announcements.
Report armagnac October 26, 2018 8:47 PM BST
Love
Report Cider October 26, 2018 8:57 PM BST
Betting on a show where the highlights are out of date, you should be aware that info can leak that is not in the public domain. Rule #1 of the majority of rtv betting. People will know the xf finalists before the judges' houses show is aired for example. Caveat emptor. Plus why would you match dodgy cash, and moan about it afterwards.
Report bearcub October 26, 2018 9:16 PM BST
Marathon bet just emailed me

Your bet on Cameron @11/2 has been reduced in price to 2/1


Do what they like these shysters....Angry
Report ouch October 26, 2018 9:32 PM BST
@Cider, I started with "I am not crying". This is a fun market to me. Buyer beware on these market, and I was more than happy to close out my bets at those odds. Doesn't mean illegal bets should not be investigated.
Report Cider October 26, 2018 9:41 PM BST
Yep you said you weren't crying in your first sentence, and then proceeded to cry for the rest of it!

I took about half my red out against the money. However, it all looked wrong to me.

So you sensed it was insider money, but took the risk anyway, and now it didn't work out you're crying foul Plain
Report ouch October 26, 2018 9:42 PM BST
"if someone uses terms in an Alice and Wonderland nonsense way I ask them to clarify. Don't take it personally." - I take nothing personally. I do however work in trading and we use 'lay off' to mean any form of reducing a risk position. So if someone has a positive or negative position on anything from pork bellies to FX Vega, we would say that you can lay off your position by taking a trade in the opposite direction. I am more than happy to agree that in betting, as opposed to trading, the term 'lay off' has a more specific negative bet meaning, so I bow to your crown, and hope you will not behead me as one of your wives.
Report bearcub October 26, 2018 9:44 PM BST
lol
Report ouch October 26, 2018 9:44 PM BST
"you sensed it was insider money, but took the risk anyway," - I thought it was weird. I had no idea it was insider money. It only occurred to me later that that was a possibility. I never cry about bets. It's only fun money.
Report armagnac October 26, 2018 9:47 PM BST
Your’re funny, I would welcome more post Mr ouch Love
Report Cider October 26, 2018 9:47 PM BST
The trading today looked to me like insider knowledge

Was that before or after the announcement that Lewis had been booted Laugh
Report five leaves left October 26, 2018 9:48 PM BST
Stick to trading pork bellies would be my advice, ouch
Report armagnac October 26, 2018 9:53 PM BST
dont trade with eddie murphy though Scared
Report ouch October 26, 2018 9:54 PM BST
"Stick to trading pork bellies would be my advice, ouch" - probably sage advice sir. However, in the round I did quite well out of it. I only managed to lay off half my red, meaning I am now stuck with plenty of green on the remaining housemates, so through more by luck than judgement, the milky bars are on me.
Report ouch October 26, 2018 9:57 PM BST
"dont trade with eddie murphy though" - Eddie Murphy always corners the market in pork bellies and frozen orange juice.
Report armagnac October 26, 2018 9:58 PM BST
Cool quality film, one dollar bet LaughLaugh
Report bearcub October 26, 2018 9:59 PM BST
Works at McDonalds   NAP
Report armagnac October 26, 2018 10:01 PM BST
says the man who got 2/1 about an 11/2 shot LaughLaughLove
Report armagnac October 26, 2018 10:02 PM BST
any chance of another oner at 5.50 Mischief
Report bearcub October 26, 2018 10:04 PM BST
I'd say my book was better than yours Cool
Report ouch October 26, 2018 10:04 PM BST
btw, did u notice that the two tramps that Eddie Murphy gives a bag of cash to in Coming to America are the same two businessmen he destroyed in Trading Places?
Report mach October 26, 2018 10:05 PM BST
Shocked
Report armagnac October 26, 2018 10:09 PM BST
yes ouch, clever that was
Report mach October 26, 2018 10:12 PM BST
I watched Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and missed all the fun Sad
Report ouch October 26, 2018 11:29 PM BST
I told you there would be no more evictions. So... why was the favourite lengthening?
Report Henry VIII October 27, 2018 12:09 AM BST
Because people foolishly don't wait for your advise. (I said the same as you btw.)

There were convos on here saying he'd be evicted, convos talking up Cameron who was shortening. The majority view was that there would be an eviction.
Report bearcub October 27, 2018 12:14 AM BST
And there would have been if Lewis hadn't been ejected

They didn't want him winning imo and took the chance to get rid
Report stu October 27, 2018 12:21 AM BST
If they didn't want him winning why did they twist previous moves to save him? Confused
Report armagnac October 27, 2018 12:28 AM BST
decent ratings as long as possible
Report bearcub October 27, 2018 12:28 AM BST
Because he was making the show

Totally different to giving him 100K
Report stu October 27, 2018 12:38 AM BST
Though losing him now surely deflates their final run in then, the key finale shows?
Report stu October 27, 2018 12:43 AM BST
Oh well, their choice I guess.
Report scampi October 27, 2018 4:18 AM BST
Always a risk in these Reality TV shows betting on any contestant. BB - being ejected, IAC - being bitten by a spider and having to quit, DOI and SCD - getting injured and having to quit, X Factor- getting throat infection and having to quit etc.

All part and parcel of the game and we have to take the hit if we're green on that particular person, so be it (not very often it happens).

If we all worried too much on the people we're betting on being taken out of the market at any second too seriously there would be zero liquidity.

I suppose in this case it's just as well it happened when it did. At least bettors knew he might have got evicted next Frday.

If it was declared the Vote to Win lines were opened Lewis would have probably went to about 1.4. If he got ejected then there would have been a bloodbbath for bettors betting on him and a HUGE outcry.
Report scampi October 27, 2018 4:23 AM BST
I think TPTB wanted him to win but he must have done something that gave them no choice but to eject him (unfortunately).
Report Henry VIII October 27, 2018 6:05 AM BST
Their final day viewership and vote figures will be down because of this. I can't imagine the corporate people negotiating with Netflix will be happy. But, nicely said scampi, it always can happen, need to be philosophical about it.
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