*** Eurovision 2018 1st Semi IR ***

You still think Cyprus is winning bear? I'm not at all convinced after that. Doing ok on FB but not smashing it

i'm not convinced, but i still don't see anyone id back over her

Possibly Lith

Seeing the light

i have no idea now. another 2011.

I was the first to spot Lith tbf

She probably needs 2nd half draw. Ieva that is. With Spain & Portugal in the 1st half

Lithuania now 20

pmsl bear. I spotted it in August

anyone think the norwegian **** has chance? very bad esc year if so.

That's at least how i remember it

Norway wins, i give up

still not for me H, but have it a small green after laying most of those at the top tonight

Who's posting for you fig?

Given up on Czech and Estonia and not particularly keen on Cyprus and especially Israel

May 8, 2018 -- 10:42PM, bearcub wrote:

Who's posting for you fig?

Just me and Ieva's chakra

Are people overreacting to a Jury vote though. Netta could still smash the Televote...

Not with that trash Roger

Most of it is thrash Five leaves left.

Albania the value imo

Only Hungary is thrash

Ok, boys; after hearing them for the first time, just one question, if I may? HOW THE PHUCK did that Israeli Sesame Street ever trade at 2.5, please?  Someone posted on here recently that ESC markets are the most efficient of all RTV markets; this made sense, explaining away my abject uselessness at ESC. Tonight, though, I`m most pleased to announce that whoever said that was talking boll0x, the market is, was and will remain as utterly CLUELESS as all other RTV markets!!! Yippee!!! My faith in that belief has been well and truly restored.

At close tim. The majority of the market hadn't seen a properly staged performance.

you are right tim. must remember to ignore my personal fav.

I must remember to back them more

Me too fig

we know bear

Like this beauty

Can't complain though

lol Fig. Eurovision is way over complicated by people most of the time.

I like this better the more i hear it tbf

Get it down to 3 and I'll give you a hug bear

What down to 3 ?

Hems could still have the last laugh with double A

Portugal bear

Spain looks all right

I'd have to block the fecker

I'm so fooking nervous

Cyprus first out so she can draw 2nd half

If Ieva went out now

yesssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

GTFI

yay

n1 bear. Never backed it but so pleased

Gtfi

Gtfi

Top night

Some price he was Eugent Bushpepa.
Shocked Ireland qualified.

Very nice bear. Had both Ireland and Finland but traded out of them

Stupid boy

I see that swiss rubbish that the eurojury put so high failed

why does anyone pay attention to pre-show polls. load of mince

because tim b never stops going on about them

lol

I might go on esctips and thank them for the saara cash

stonking night on the OR so can't complain, but should have been a great one in the semi too

Layed Belgium, Swiss and Bulgaria. Backed Finland & Ireland and should have backed Albania. Traded out of all of them for a small profit

May 8, 2018 -- 11:12PM, bearcub wrote:

I might go on esctips and thank them for the saara cash

Get over there Steve

Well done winners small loss here but had to be against Saara, Ireland a blow as well but traded ok so no complaints.

am i missing something arent we supposed to have a top 3 and semi final winner?

insiders only until post result Saturday

Cant give results out till Saturday ratneck.

One bet Albania to qualify. Happy with that!

ok i didnt know that. was expecting them to announce it tonight, need lithuaina top 3 and semi final winner,

If that Norewgian muck wins I'll give up.
That's how you don't write a song...

Same here Roger. Love Rybak but the some is crap

#song

Shocked by the Estonia drift!

I honestly think people are out there betting with the inside numbers for the Semi Final 1 voting.

Am I mad? LOL.....

Live feed of press conference feed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaWoFXm6wl8

Norway about to become fave

And Norway now fave.

Big drift Cyprus.

Insider betting.....

Can someone with experience of Eurovision please explain this move for Norway?

maybe its because Rybak won eurovision before.

odds now suggest that even thou Cyprus did well in jury, not so good in people voting, israel did bad yesterday so traders looking beyond semi 1 for winners and money for norway as favourite in semi 2 and money also for france. feels like it will be great trading during juryvoting on saturday.

Great explanation the swede.
But this is surely people with inside info on the votes.
Or not?

i am sure money for cyprus last night started from insiders. When I heard Christer Björkman on Swedish Tv today calling out that we are closing todays show with a super strong Cyprus just confirmed that.

But I think this year is close, so even insiders cant be too sure when to compare the jury vote/people vote in the different semis and big 5. The different countrys voting in semi and final can also make alot of changes. Saturday winner may even only finish top 3 in a semi.
I am also sure that the fact Rybak has won before (popular and known in many different voting blocks) lower his odds alot.
Tomorrow we know alot more.
My own experience is to be very careful with drifters. If you have been traded around 10-15 and then are over 30 ish its a very bad sign. Czech republic, estonia and bulgary are gone me think. Iam very surprised if Cyprus, Israel and Lithuania is not top 3 and the rest is out.

Austria draw 1st

estonia 1st

the odds movement would actually be consistent with narrow Cyprus win. Insiders would expect Cyprus to win overwhelmingly from that position. However, it only narrowly won (Israel and Lithuania other top 3). Had Israel or Lithuania won the semi, they would be much lower and Cyprus higher.

cyprus 2md

cyprus 2 half. Christer will get them a nice draw anyway

lithuania 1st

israel 2nd

czech 2nd

bulgaria 2nd cough

albania 1st

finland 2nd

ireland 2nd

cyprus back to fave

Excellent appraisals there the swede.
Some interesting results still to be had.

israel will go after break so slot 17.

will cyprus go 20-26

May 9, 2018 -- 12:31AM, Kosher Malibu wrote:

the odds movement would actually be consistent with narrow Cyprus win. Insiders would expect Cyprus to win overwhelmingly from that position. However, it only narrowly won (Israel and Lithuania other top 3). Had Israel or Lithuania won the semi, they would be much lower and Cyprus higher.

i think you are spot on.

For prefinal trading I also think the draw is important but not so much for the favorites as for the 5th-15th song. The top qualifiers who get an first half draw tend to get an OK running order anyway. ESC (Christer again) will get them in a good starting order (11 Portugal last year) or 13 Australia (the year before). But running order 2-6 and I would lay them blind for top 6.

May 9, 2018 -- 12:31AM, Kosher Malibu wrote:

the odds movement would actually be consistent with narrow Cyprus win. Insiders would expect Cyprus to win overwhelmingly from that position. However, it only narrowly won (Israel and Lithuania other top 3). Had Israel or Lithuania won the semi, they would be much lower and Cyprus higher.

Not necessarily narrow surely? They're clear favourites. If they'd won from something like slot 2 they'd be shorter. That is if insiders are making the running, as they're thrashing all metrics.

newest post

I think it may well have been narrow btw, my point was you can't tell that from the odds.