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08 Jan 18 22:04
Date Joined: 11 Jun 12
| Topic/replies: 19,485 | Blogger: timbuctooth's blog
Back the outsiders!
Pause Switch to Standard View My biggest green tells India! Monday CBB
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Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed January 8, 2018 9:12 PM GMT
The Daleks know Doctor Who as the "Oncoming Storm". I wonder what they would call India?
Report Junction25 January 8, 2018 9:15 PM GMT
2nd fav Shane final arrived in the house
Report timbuctooth January 8, 2018 9:38 PM GMT
Report J.O.TOBIN. January 8, 2018 9:44 PM GMT
Evening India is so very Transparent everything has to be about her, the others seem decent people really.
Report timbuctooth January 8, 2018 9:47 PM GMT
FFS! From the opening clips, I thought it was Johnny who was involved with India; now seems it`s Andrew! Most disappointing, had been waiting half an hour for the inevitable price crash on my biggest green
Report stroodle January 8, 2018 9:55 PM GMT
Malika Love
Report timbuctooth January 8, 2018 9:57 PM GMT
Yep, Malika again speaking for the nation.
Report Junction25 January 8, 2018 9:59 PM GMT
great show for Andrew -he will be on the sofa final night
Report timbuctooth January 8, 2018 10:03 PM GMT
The attention-seeking, deliberately insulting stropster? Max red
Report Junction25 January 8, 2018 10:07 PM GMT
really ? massive green for me -he integrating with housemates can't see him getting many norms
Report timbuctooth January 8, 2018 10:15 PM GMT
Took him max red a couple of days ago, and have been watching him improve and his price drop, feeling I`d made a big mistake. Tonight`s show, though, has revealed what we`ll be seeing more of for however long he`s in there, and it strongly hinted at what we kinda knew from The Apprentice; he`s a selfish immature idiot.
Report Junction25 January 8, 2018 10:18 PM GMT
Tim -Andrew knows how this show works and being very friendly with the "in crowd" He may not win but I can see him final 3
Report Junction25 January 8, 2018 10:19 PM GMT
As for Courtney now 3.55 just don't know where this one going -average lay 4.2 for me lol
Report timbuctooth January 8, 2018 10:22 PM GMT
No doubt at all he`s had a good few days, but that stroppy sulk tonight, after creating the problem, in full knowledge of the likely effect, was most revealing, undoing all the good.
Report timbuctooth January 8, 2018 10:26 PM GMT
Courtney`s price is mental, we`ve not seen anything from him either, beyond the mono-speech on sexuality. No voters want that shoved down their throat for a month, and what more does this unknown have to offer us to justify such prices? And, let`s not forget, he was equally guilty in tonight`s unpleasantries.
Report stroodle January 8, 2018 11:14 PM GMT
This gender stuff is really tedious stuff nowCry
Report timbuctooth January 9, 2018 12:00 AM GMT
If Andrew can repulse Mrs Doyle, it`s over with MEMs; lay!
Report timbuctooth January 9, 2018 12:04 AM GMT
Live F2F noms tomorrow night
Report jollyswagman January 9, 2018 12:04 AM GMT
1st noms tomorrow, live and face to face

amanda, jess, maggie, malika and shane j safe
Report armagnac January 9, 2018 8:46 AM GMT
agree with tim about andrew and shane j, both didn't give a hoot about india's feeling's when playing stupid dressing up games..sure to upset someone the public like at some point.
shane j looks stubborn in his views and keen to ram them down the throats of everyone, albeit in a calm manner.
andrew appears a spoilt pretty boy, that strop aligned with alcohol would make me worry as a backer and potentially being part of team bellend. jonny and dapper might see his chances go south very quickly.

of the big hitters celeb wise, shane Lynch who i think is arrogant is distancing himself from team bellend or it appears that way from the edit but is one to keep an eye on..possibly being held up by the prods, does not appear to be a wallflower or just being overshadowed by the bigger characters early on.
still think he could kick off at some point but apart from widdy, he's the only other one of interest for me currently.
amazing how quickly you can write some off after a few episodes lol but as we know things can change very quickly in bb !!!
Report VardonVoo. January 9, 2018 9:38 AM GMT
@ army

"both didn't give a hoot about India's feeling's when playing stupid dressing up games."

Don't really see why they should. It's a bit like expecting women in the summer BB not to wear bikinis cos of an HM who's had a mastectomy.
I really can't see the audience sympathising with India anyway. HMs are allowed to have fun.


Going against early faves is usually a good idea, but Courtney is the stand-out character as far as I can see. I'm not saying you should open a back at these odds, but if you are short already maybe start to think about cutting any losses and certainly don't average down. I did that with the Wasp-Chewer last time and then had to cover at even lower odds when reality overcame my ego.

My gf loves Courtney - she's Australian and remembers how popular Courtney was over there (she failed to mention this in time for me to capiltalise on it at good odds, needless to say - what is it with non-gambling partners and their potentially useful objectivity that always comes too late?). She keeps mentioning how articulate Courtney/Shane is. I just can't see how he's likely to mess up from here or who is likely to grab the limelight and overtake.

I backed Toff in IMAC but kept trying (and failing!) to micro-trade her as her odds ground ever lower and I ended up winning way, way less than if I'd simply placed the bet and taken the dog for a very long walk. This time I'm going to attempt to avoid trying not to outsmart myself.
Report armagnac January 9, 2018 10:01 AM GMT

its more the fact they did it knowing it would be upsetting, a little bit calculated for me, especially on shane j's part.
he even said 'india wont like this very much' or words to that effect.
a little clue our fav is not all sweetness and light.

RE: andrew

his part in the sauna scene with team bellend, talking about women was pretty damaging to his chances imo
that looks a taste of what team bellend are all about, especially with dapper orchestrating manoeuvres.
the more we see of them 3 the less likely any of them wins
Report armagnac January 9, 2018 10:07 AM GMT
im seeing little things with shane j, that suggest he's no runnaway winner in the toff mould...way to early, god knows what the edit is hiding as well.
1st few days i thought shane had no negatives but there are signs
Report VardonVoo. January 9, 2018 2:16 PM GMT
It wasn't done specifically to annoy India though - they did it as a fun thing and just acknowledged that she wouldn't like it (and probably derived some amusement at this, just like I'm sure many of the audience did). Its not like it was sprung on her as a complete surprise either - why did she choose to sit through it? Most people are seeing India as playing the victim card whilst everyone else is being expected to tip-toe around her. I really don't see the public holding anything against a drag queen dressing up another guy as a drag queen for entertainment.

Remember that we both saw "things" with Sarah Harding, but it hurt us in the end. I try not to be over-analytical these days and just try to watch the show as a casual viewer to see who stands out, who is likable, who is marmite, who is background, who is worthy-but-dull, who gets people's backs up, etc.

I'm not an Andrew fan myself - I didn't watch "The Apprentice" but my gut instinct tells me he's a self-absorbed pr!ck. Last night's dress-up, however, definitely boosts his profile so I leave him quite red with some wariness, hoping he does more to hang himself. You can't win if  you get voted out and you can get voted out if you are nominated, so let's see how well he does on noms day. He'll win a H2H vs India but the week after will be interesting if he's up again in a H2H against Ann and I think he loses to quite a few others. He may well survive any multi-ways though.
Report timbuctooth January 9, 2018 6:06 PM GMT
vv; thanks for the advice but, reading your post, it occurred to me there might be some confusion? When I say `lay early favs`, I don`t mean just `the` fav, as I will usually lay five or six of the top six or seven. So far, we`ve had four favs, whose lowest prices add up to about 89%, about a 1/9 shot. My best prices on those four only come to 84%, but I also laid India down to 8.2 and Andrew at 6.8 which then comes to about 110%. Obviously, not all my lays were at best price, but this `laying favs (plural!)` is such a foolproof doddle, I really don`t know why everyone`s not at it

Disclaimer; what to do with any free greens? Aaah, well, that`s where a chap can get himself into all sorts of trouble, getting jiggy by introducing reds and max reds. More sensible players would be happy levelish if any of the six win, but jackpot if any of the other 10 win. And, whichever choice we make, there`s always the delicious prospect of A/O!

As for the merest mention of Courtney and Toff in the same sentence, pfaah, harumph and humbug! We RTV players had a meeting, where it was universally and unanimously agreed that Toff is the most worthy and deserving winner of ANY series of ANY programme EVER! Courtney? Well, he isn`t.
Report armagnac January 9, 2018 7:45 PM GMT
sarah harding is a name that pains me more than any other in my list of losers, she won coz many of the women voters are just like her...alcoholic, attention sex seeking freaks !!

a week in and i couldn't recommend anyone back a 2/1 fav knowing how the prods like to big up certain characters early on then hang them out to dry, ofc they need the material to do this and shane j appears atm not to have many negatives at all.
not the worst fav in the world and probably the right one even if a little shorter than i think he should be.

for our sakes i hope there is negatives to come, another runnaway specials winner would be as dull as fook tbh
Report Junction25 January 9, 2018 8:10 PM GMT
am I the only  one which thinks its going to be a female who going to win this year ? producers are really pushing the theme "woman of the year " so is it case of having all the males red
Report VardonVoo. January 9, 2018 9:22 PM GMT
@ Tim - I know you to be a shrewdie, so there's no assumption here about you laying only one favourite at a time (although I wouldn't be too surprised if this was indeed your strategy in week one, say). I also agree Toff was much more of a stand-out in IMAC, but I'd say she beat a much stronger field. Likewise Sarah Harding beat some serious competition. This time we've had four early favs, two of which went to 5s and quickly reversed and are now teens or 20s - who is there left to become a favourite and then actually go on to win? Courtney has sustained some momentum so far, although admittedly rather short at this early stage. But I reckon the price reflects the fact that four others out of 16 have already peaked and probably won't resurface for a while (if at all) and several of the rest are not even contenders - Wayne, for example - so there aren't all that many left to step up to the plate.

Saying that, I've no idea why John isn't much shorter.

@ Junction - Well that's the joke/twist with Courtney/Shane - the public get to stick two fingers up at the prods for trying to force a female to be crowned yet the prods still get a pseudo-female winner so their "honour" is satisfied - it's a win-win for all concerned. Chantelle winning CBB as the only non-celeb demonstrates the public's willingness to subvert things.
Report timbuctooth January 9, 2018 9:40 PM GMT
Four favs might be considered plenty, but I`d still be surprised if we don`t have at least one more, and I think there are at least three or four candidates.
Report VardonVoo. January 9, 2018 10:01 PM GMT
I've been scr*wed over too many times going against the sustained non-reversing favourite in IMAC and Celeb BB. Now I'm just backing who I actually think will and covering various other reds as the opportunities present themselves. My finger is on the trigger to reverse if things change, though.
Report timbuctooth January 10, 2018 12:12 AM GMT
I hear you! All of my worst losses have been when taking on never-lengthening favs, usually with continued laying. Definitely a flaw in my MO, but I just can`t stop myself. Sounds like you may have mastered this, so very well done on that!
Report VardonVoo. January 10, 2018 1:01 AM GMT
I think living with a partner has forced me to restrict my losing positions and be less reckless. It has somewhat cramped my Test cricket trading style (barring one disastrous Ashes match) but it has stopped me throwing too much good money after bad. It's also useful having someone else watching the show objectively that doesn't have a financial stake in it and doesn't follow polls. In he past I would chat to people casually and they would say "X is obviously going to win" and it would always be the runaway favourite that for some reason I disliked early on and was already big red on. Why could they see it so easily? Why would I ignore them and lay even more at the lower odds expecting a bounce? Wickets suddenly tumble in cricket and everything changes, but runaway favourites with star quality just seem to cruise to victory by being their natural selves. Maybe that's why the naturals like Pete Bennett and Josie Gibson and Brian Belo win and the tryers like Paul Danan consistently fail.

I certainly don't feel I've mastered this. They day I  do will be my undoing, I'm sure!

One thing I always keep in mind (from, I think, a book called "Market Wizards") - "It's not you against the markets - it's just you".
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