THE VOICE 2018

I've no appetite for this dross

That was awful but Jennifer a sucker for gospel

Thought RYT were SHYT as well

Granny WTF

Window Cleaning Dad or Window Cleaning Lad looks like Suggs

Given the paucity of interest might as well keep stuff on here.

oF

Tobes, did you hear Liam Payne speaking on The Brits Noms show earlier?  Great accent

Kade Smith 16 1st up thought he started off pitch but improved through the song.

Kade - I thought it was Keith

I thought he improved as the backing track got louder to drown him out

Thought it was a Justin Timberlake tribute act, tried hard to be nice though.

reminds me of a young George Formby

could just imagine Olly mentoring these

They were pretty decent, met whikst working in a restaurant my arrse obviously appearing in the same show.

Opera peeps always sound the same to me

WTF padding surely

cringe tv

Obviously scripted complete with laughter fresh from the tin

she looks like Bobby Gillespie

Jade might be a bit better than that, would need to be really.

the usual Welsh act for Welsh Tom tedium

Week 2 and we are into fodder already.

That was weird, you get one chance gotta pick the right song.

the funniest thing would have been if he didn't get a turn again

Looked distinctly possible on a level playing field, wasn't that great at all.

Quite a sincere guy so van progress on likeability alone.

10/1 and 12/1 a bit thin though

Oh dear only 2 to possibly take from tonight so far.

desperate show again tonight - really dragging

Hmmm think the copious amounts of judges bursting into song is to emphasise the contrast with X Factor where only one can sing.

four old blokes that don't want to be there

does that include you and Fat Ted, Tobes?

wouldn't have thought chocolate would last long wherever she stores it

bit too full of herself really not a backer at short prices

Meatloaf lookie likie going nowhere

I have been unable to watch the voice this year due to it being complete sh1t, of the shorter price runners I prefer  Ruti to Donal and I don't know who votes for Lucy.

I`ve always hated the format and, with so much of this series being pre-recorded, I too have stayed clear for the first time ever. Haven`t even seen or heard six of the eight including the fav, but two minutes of the opera girls was enough to justify an interest at up to 90 today, which seemed value.

Donal is a cert to win imo, but I wouldn't let Will take him to LA,Will has an evil look to him

hmmmm

that was very luke warm

What is happening? Has don taken a sheet

1st up, vote not open

BV much more like it!

Why is Donel TCO? He`s dire, utterly swamped by BV`s performance.

not sure he is still tco

I'm happy enough to take on the front 2 in the betting

Trap 1 not a sign of favour for sure official twitter activity not that great this week either

he didn't even get the customary tco ad break

Cider    07 Apr 18 21:02 
I'm happy enough to take on the front 2 in the betting

Me too, there`s been some crazy prices matched, even very recently, on the two perceived outsiders; thankfully, and as always in Specials, the market knows diddly

BV first up with voting open

4.3 matched

FFS, we`ve been nobbled! First, they switch R/O, then Hudson stands in the shade until she jumps in and steals the big moment and notes!

don't think that matters too much to the punters tim

1st up with voting open is the best RO obv

this is decent

oh dear

Spermotozoa! Good old Will, guaranteed to phuck it up

That was nice, brought her onside, Donel red getting bigger.

Same here. Go for BV v Ruti last 2

Fookin Will could stop frankel a talentless Herbert

even handed final so far

boring

What's happened

Don V ruti   final 2

nice of doreen lawrence to pop in

Tar

just goodwill surely getting donel into the last 2

rooting for ruti

Go girl! Beautiful tone to her voice

Different league!

lol vote closed

lpm donel 3 ruti 1.6

Ruti matched at 1.4, but I`ve let it ride

Ruti +12 points
Donel -3

-2 D +3 R

that was a ridiculous vote close thi

Yep, extremely rapid close, probably means TCO was just holding on, five more minutes would see him stuffed after Ruti`s last song.

Emma's hair - something about Mary

YaaaaY! One for the good guys! One of the more `proper and deserving` winners I can remember, would have been a travesty if they`d got him over the line.

quite a bit of fun, not played this one seriously but as soon as I saw Donel last week thought he was vulnerable. Didn't think it would be Ruti but I guess half dressed pretty females, usual rules apply.

we all won again

doubt it

Tonight`s market volatility was good fun indeed, almost impossible for any traders to lose.

cant be easy paying the premium charge for you guys when there was virtually no liquidity in running

very good Bito, btw I never bet when the public are involved as they have no taste

It's comfortably the easiest way to make a profit gambling.

On this thread, there are posts from three gentlemen who are not altogether `regular` posters on RTV events, and posts from half a dozen extremely regular; can`t comment on the long term records of the three non-regs, but it`s 1.01 that every one of the regs are paying PC. I believe this to be the case because they all have a long history of posting the state of their books before votes close, and last night two people posted their positions, with both of us declaring that the odds-on fav was our only loser.

So, while it`s great to see new-ish posters joining in, rather than having a doubtful and sneering tone they really would do better learning that Cider is correct, there really is no easier money to be had on bf than in Specials. It might not be the most `macho` thing to be betting on, indeed I often face such scornful attitudes when I talk to people about what I do; that soon changes when I tell them I`ve been winning for 14 years in this little corner of the gambling world. And, yes, that does include paying PC!

fair enough Tim but ive never recovered from one direction not winning back in 03 and since seen many a good thing not win due to public voting,so question is,where have I been going wrong and what lessons should I listen too?

Most of us specials regulars have our own MO terry. Me and tim here typically operate in a totally different way. The common denominator is that the market is often wrong, and regularly in a big way. For example, at the start of The Voice, Donel was expected to be TCO but clearly then wasn't given slot 1, the market hadn't reacted to this most important bit of news. I opted to go for the bigger win backing the two outsiders at 12-1 (2 points BV 1 point Laura), rather than lay Donel at the time as I didn't particularly fancy Ruti either. BV were then layable at 3-1 after a few performances went by. The market still contained Donel TCO latency right up until Ruti's very last song. Eurovision is the most efficient but even that market can be majorly wrong at times.

terry
A most civilised reply!  I`ll offer whatever I can think of right now, and perhaps add to it later. Also, other readers, especially some of the regs can chip in some suggestions

First and foremost; don`t know anything about how or what you bet on, for how long, to what stakes, profitable or not,  but that doesn`t matter as, when you enter the world of RTV betting, you have to forget everything you think you know about betting. Might sound silly, but I can`t overstate the importance of this, as RTV markets move in most mysterious ways, often having numerous odds-on pokes being turned over in a series, including frequently even after votes have closed. If you play the horses or `normal` sports, there`s just too much historical data out there for everyone to see, meaning the markets are pretty much perfect, making it virtually impossible to win long-term. Not so with Specials; no form to go on, who knows how The GBP will take to or hate any given runner, on what whims will they vote? Nobody knows, of course, but if you spend a bit of time learning about these things, you can easily become better than the market.  Which is all it takes to win; not necessarily on every event, but certainly over the long term, which is all that matters.

So, how to win at Specials? I don`t really know, beyond my own experience. First thing I did was read the forum; after a while, you begin to see who posts sense, whose predictions come about, and also who talks boll0x! I`d guess there are maybe 20 long term posters who know what they`re talking about, and who freely share their views. So, either start reading everything on here for the next few months, or start reading back over old threads, the more you read, the more you`ll see who to take notice of, who to ignore. Don`t be afraid to ask questions or to offer your own thoughts up for discussion, we`re the friendliest forum on bf; indeed, I`ve posted my thanks to them on a number of occasions because I learnt pretty much all I know from them

When it comes to actually betting, let me remind you to forget everything you think you know and and always remember `Specials markets are always wrong`, so different tactics are required, but this comes down to personal choice; do you just want to have one back? Dutch? Lay one? Or more? Trade? I began by trading, listening to the shrewdies, and soon found I could regularly go all green, albeit for pennies, but this thrilled me! A couple of years of that gave me the confidence to risk a few reds, rather than have so many wasted greens so I now usually have any number of max reds come a final but over time this is far more profitable (and fun!) than having the Insurance Policy of all-green, even though I know this is a matter of `risk aversion`, which we all have our own different levels of.

The percentage of long-term winners on this forum is crazy high because of, primarily, the volatility of our markets and the frequency of favs being stuffed. You won`t find anything like it any other betting, which is what makes it so easy to win whatever your preferred style of playing, but I highly recommend trading.  Most of our events are on for months, make a mistake or a bad call, there`s oodles of time to get yourself out of trouble, made even easier by the famed volatility in action.

As you can see, there`s nothing hard about it, just do a bit of study, ask questions, dip your toes in, and off you go!

Spent so long writing that^^^, hadn`t seen Cider`s reply; thankfully, we`re both pretty much making the same points.

thanks guy,there is a little to get my head around but as you say that will come in time.
I shall read all the post once Eurovision gets really going and hopefully get more of a feel for it, but I will come back to read your last few posts.Thanks for taking the time guys.

*will have to come back as lots of info.

i was taking the rise tim,i dont doubt that many people win on the specials markets long term

im just curious why so little interest on the voice,no weekly threads,very little money matched outright

regardless if you like the programme or not surely its another specials market to play

The problem with this series was that it was all pre-recorded, until the semi-final 10 days ago. This meant that it was known, to some, weeks and months ago who was still in, who was out.  Which in turn meant that people were very reluctant to get involved, knowing they`d likely be swiped by those more knowledgeable.

the x factor is similiar with the auditions although there are obviously more live shows at the end

would you be backing on the auditions or just waiting for the live shows

i appreciate not many high street bookies would be pricing it up

True, XF does have two or three months of recorded stuff, but they then traditionally have maybe 10(?) weeks of `lives`, gives everybody a chance to get stuck into the market. Personally, I`m an instinctive layer (I`m an Indie), so I don`t usually back more than one or two pre-lives, preferring to build a bit of a base to work from by laying any number of them. Laying pre-lives means you haven`t backed any N/Rs, but you may well manage to have laid some, which is always nice! One thing to bear in mind, though, if you`re looking to back early in XF is that Cowell`s TCO is almost invariably on in the first episode of recorded stuff, and typically in pimp slot. Then, with every following week, there is a huge over-reaction to that week`s more likely runners, always trading short before drifting to more realistic prices. Lay a few of those and you`ll have a good start, some free equity to play with come the lives

The Semi-Final
Donel 27.25%
Ruti 22.91%
Belle Voci 14.95%
Lauren 11.65%
Jamie 8.79%
Gayatri 6.67%
Lucy 5.27%
Tai 2.49%

Donel, Ruti, Belle Voci and Lauren filled our four spots in the Final after they received the highest number of votes.

The Final - 1st Vote
Donel 29.58%
Ruti 29.41%
Belle Voci 24.27%
Lauren 16.73%

Donel and Ruti made it through to the second stage of the Final after receiving the highest votes

The Final - 2nd Vote
Ruti 58.34%
Donel 41.66%

Ruti and Donel neck and neck until the final song; what happened there for her to romp it? We all know the answer, don`t we, it`s `Will`! He really is a Jonah. BV not far from the final, in which they would have blown away Donel (and Will!).