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armagnac
21 Nov 17 14:05
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 10,234 | Blogger: armagnac's blog
looking down the male profiles who have done well, Mr Wise ticks nearly all of the boxes.
ok a fiery little so an so on the pitch but thats sport, he's been an excellent role model and conducted himself as a true gentleman off the pitch.
from what we have seen so far this is ringing true, not done alot so far but certainly hasn't done anything wrong as yet..unlike a few of the others.
what i really liked is he appears humble and didn't boast or gloat about the challenges ahead, infact he shown a lot of vulnerability bout being scared of what's ahead.
but my belief is being an ex capatin and leader of his team he will battle his fears and just get on with it for the good of his camp mates unlike amir the wuss.

also think that's what the audience like to see, someone overcoming there fears.

of the rest:

johnson - asleep yesterday, rude to jack once he had been safely delivered too the shower. exempt from trial and sure to happen again.
i believe lack of food and sleep he will get worse not better.
no chance for me

jamie - better show yesterday dissing amir was good to watch, is it just me or his voice already becoming loud and annoying ?
he looks like a grenade waiting too explode, once tensions rise i see an angry man appearing... i hope and there goes his chance...comes across quite c0cky to at times and nowhere near as mild mannered as dennis.

jack - being overshadowed in the early stages and dan wooten is on a one man crusade to stop him from winning, no matter he was only 16 it would be wrong of someone saying those things in a public domain and win. i get its won in the jungle, but he's no man just a boring little boy who offers not a lot imo.

amir - always thought he was quite c0cky and arrogant watching him turn into a man from a 17 year old who burst onto our screens, i guess most boxers have to have that attitude..winning is everything apart from when you see a snake !!
early plaything for the audience is my guess, who usually tire of such characters once they've tortured the camp with no food for a little while.
boxer turned wuss being crowned king of the jungle is all wrong in my book, needs to man up fast and i just cant see it happening.

iain lee - my biggest danger and have covered my stake on him, has the potential to hose up, if this was big brother, he would in this field, simples.
different audience, different dynamics
a toned down lee does go close though imo

also had a bit at 18's on dark horse dennis in the winners market but my guess is a women wins this year, hence why ive gone in big on the top male market at 6/1.
generally being involved, completing trials and being a nice guy goes a very long way in this show so bring it on Cool
Pause Switch to Standard View ***a wise move is to back dennis for...
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Report bearcub November 21, 2017 1:23 PM GMT
Why would you think a woman wins this year when we've just had 2 female winners.

You is 1 ****mother**** Cry
Report hemsby November 21, 2017 1:33 PM GMT
GL army ...he has to have a chance in this weak field.

Iain,Dennis,Jamie and Vanessa my initial 4 greens FWIW .....hope you have a winning series Cool
Report bearcub November 21, 2017 1:34 PM GMT
Not having a tongue emoji is killing me inside
Report armagnac November 21, 2017 1:34 PM GMT
good point bear, upstairs for thinking, downstairs for dancing Excited
Report armagnac November 21, 2017 1:35 PM GMT
ty hems, and to you good sir Cool
Report armagnac November 21, 2017 1:43 PM GMT
but do the 8 million corrie viewers care there's been two female winners in a row ?
Report armagnac November 21, 2017 2:14 PM GMT
the two women ive covered in the winners market is shappi and jennie, both come across nice and up for the challenges ahead..not keen on rest, miss white is ok but i have her behind my two and you cant back em all.

that's me done, hoping to pick up twice by doing two markets, lots of combinations possible Cool
Report armagnac November 21, 2017 2:59 PM GMT
coral and lads pushed wise out to 8/1 for top male now btw
Report bearcub November 21, 2017 3:35 PM GMT
'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjJIrasladg
Report armagnac November 21, 2017 3:52 PM GMT
Laugh
Report hemsby November 23, 2017 6:42 AM GMT
Fully on board now Cool

Felt he had a good show last night,very cheery and positive and also has the running joke with Ant n Dec going regarding his height.

Bless his little grinning face on the see-saw Love
Report armagnac November 23, 2017 7:13 AM GMT
welcome hems, lovely to have such a shrewdie on board Cool
thought the small mans joke was 1st maybe 2nd night thing but does appear its gonna be a series long joke, they often do this with one of them if i recall ?
are they pushing for the stereotypical male winner after two possibly 3 of the same female winners ?
anyway, it will certainly help him a lot, picking on the wee man night after night Grin

early start for me, am hoping to be back for the start of the show
laters people
Report irish wizard November 25, 2017 7:47 AM GMT
why the big drift on Dennis Wise last night ??
Report mach November 25, 2017 10:33 AM GMT
Dennis has changed perceptions, he is more likeable than people thought, but he is not getting any trials and not central to any of the action.
Dennis and Jamie will probably get a trial when the group decides who does them, it may be too late by then.
I would rather keep him green than lay at current prices.
Report armagnac November 25, 2017 10:35 AM GMT
no reason whatsoever irish, the market has two massive ricks

1) dennis is way too big
2) toff is way too short

rest probably about right, although i expect iain to keep shortening

as with foggy who i think dennis is a carbon copy of, he was very quiet in the 1st week..plenty of time for dennis to shine, let the gobsh1tes have there moment in the sun.
dennis will not go unnoticed to the core viewer as history proves
Report armagnac November 25, 2017 10:37 AM GMT
dennis's price compared to jamie's is laughable, dennis is far more likeable and is not moaning about trials or pulling faces when not picked for one.
he's going along at the back nicely imo
Report mach November 25, 2017 10:39 AM GMT
I would agree about Jamie, not likeable at all
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 25, 2017 11:19 AM GMT
I disagree army.  Dennis is just not expressive enough and he's not MEM friendly.  Could easily be the first evicted if he doesn't pull a trial out very quick.  Disagree about Jamie too.  He's dull and even less expressive than Dennis, but he's the strong silent MEM friendly husband material type and he is coming across more and more as someone women look up to and gaining respect with them. Dennis appeals to blokes. It won't have gone unnoticed that he's had so little food and the fact that he's the it could be you means its likely now that a trial is on the horizon for him.  For me he's the favourite for top male despite the lack of a storyline (same with Dennis)
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 25, 2017 11:20 AM GMT
The he's so little narrative doesn't count as a storyline.
Report armagnac November 25, 2017 11:29 AM GMT
well thats what makes this place works clyde, immaterial for both of them if iain stays on narrative imo
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 25, 2017 11:29 AM GMT
All that said Toff is destroying the field at present.  She's playing a blinder.  Smiling, positive, expressive, caring and the most entertaining.
Report armagnac November 25, 2017 11:30 AM GMT
hardly anyone called foggy winner after 5 days
Report armagnac November 25, 2017 11:32 AM GMT
toff has a lot too overcome

not northern
way to cheery
last two winners both young women

i dont give her any hope of capturing much of the northern vote
Report mach November 25, 2017 11:32 AM GMT
Dennis had face cream as his luxury item, that's not going to give him the moist vote
Report armagnac November 25, 2017 11:36 AM GMT
on day 8 foggy was trading 30-36
on day 12 foggy was trading 24-25

im not in the slightest worried about dennis or his current price, as said plenty of time for him to shine..at least he has the potential too as foggy did late on.
Report armagnac November 25, 2017 11:40 AM GMT
on day 16 foggy was trading 17-19

some might not agree dennis is out of the same mould but hey ho, i think he's a perfect fit and history shows mr nice guys do really well.
i think dennis is a far better role model and person than jamie, amir is ok but meh for me
dennis is an outstanding bet for top male currently
Report armagnac November 25, 2017 11:42 AM GMT
well taking iain out of the equation he would be lol but i have iain well covered for obvious reasons
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 25, 2017 11:59 AM GMT
I backed Foggy army, when he cried when his mate Jimmy was evicted, or the morning after.  iirc around 15-16 at that time.  But that's really my  point about Jamie.  He's the one that fits the Foggy mould more so than Dennis.

Plenty of pillar to post romps in this series .. Tuffers Pasquale Swash Gino Stacey and Vicky were never headed from this stage and all won on the bridle.  Scarlett had a brief sojourn from being favourite but she had competition.
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 25, 2017 12:01 PM GMT
Thatcher another one that was favourite at this stage (I think) and was never headed
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 25, 2017 12:02 PM GMT
Biggins possibly another.  I know he was a short price favourite from quite a long way out.  Certainly he was never headed when he got to the front
Report bearcub November 25, 2017 12:44 PM GMT
In the last five years we've had

Mark wright, odds on, beaten

Joey, odds on, beaten

Jake, odds on, beaten

Bullard, odds on, beaten
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 25, 2017 12:56 PM GMT
Actually that's the last 6 years bearcub Happy  Go back 4 more years and Biggins Swash Stacey and Gino were the only sub evens shots and they all won.  Lets also not forget Foggy, Kian, Scarlett, Vicky and Charlie Brooks were all odds on at some point.

You are missing out Ashley Roberts fwiw.   So it's 5 beaten out of the last 14.  If you are taking evens as the bet point you are 4 points down.  Jake's stint must have been very brief at sub evens
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 25, 2017 1:04 PM GMT
Looking back over the 16 previous series.  10 of them were won by the only contestant to go evens
Report bearcub November 25, 2017 1:17 PM GMT
Pointing out that the winners traded odds on is a bit Cry imo

you're also missing the fact that the likes of Mel, jorgie and george all traded fav in the past few years and got turned over.


Whichever way you look at it, favs have a terrible record on this.
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 25, 2017 1:39 PM GMT
I reckon that at almost any price point you want to take you would be in profit over the sixteen series, certainly at sub 3/1.
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 25, 2017 1:43 PM GMT
You mentioned odds on and I just proved you are wrong for a start.  I didn't pull that number (odds on) out you did lol.
Report bearcub November 25, 2017 1:53 PM GMT
So we can agree that 5 odds on shots have been beaten in the last 6 years.

Not an enviable record imo
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 25, 2017 2:03 PM GMT
Short female prices

Evens or less losers Tara Ashley and Myleene lost

Kerry Carol Stacey Charlie Vicky and Scarlett all won

£9 staked £12 return 33% ROI

5/4 or less

Same 6 winners

Same 3 losers

£9 staked £13.50 returned 50% ROI

6/4 or less

Same 6 winners

Possibly add Rosemary to losers

£10 staked £15 returned 50% ROI

2/1 or less

Same 6 winners

possibly two more losers in Janice and Melanie

£12 staked £18 returned 50% ROI
Report bearcub November 25, 2017 2:05 PM GMT
Glad you agree
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 25, 2017 2:31 PM GMT
I do agree that 5 odds on shots have lost over the last 6 years but 5 have also won.  So even with you choosing the range (6 years) and the price point (evens) you'd only break even.  Extend the range to 7, 8, 9, 10 or more years or reduce it to 5 years and at evens you would be in profit.
Report mach November 25, 2017 2:56 PM GMT
wise up.... Grin
Report armagnac November 25, 2017 3:43 PM GMT
clyde

lets see how it plays out, coz currently we have polar opposite views regarding toff, jamie and dennis.
this is a very different dynamic so i admit its not in my comfort zone but i don't think im a million miles off with my views.
i guess will find out soon enough

all the best
Report armagnac November 26, 2017 12:21 PM GMT
little top up for me in the 30's, he's still got 10 days at least in camp to get more involved.
1st eviction must be still a week away and surely, shappi, vanessa, kezia and stanley will leave before dennis.

with amir and now jamie getting most of the edit and trails, dennis will surely get a run at some point

this train surely is not going down the helen lederer route CryCry

dennis looked visibly gutted he wasn't picked for the latest trial, at least he wants to give it go which is a plus
not to despondent about his chances yet as he's still done nothing wrong, just not getting the limelight atm
Report timbuctooth November 26, 2017 2:56 PM GMT
I had a `fat finger` moment last night, accidentally swiping Dennis all the way out to 46, his highest price matched. Hope it went to good homes?
Report armagnac November 26, 2017 3:24 PM GMT
there is a god after all
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 26, 2017 3:30 PM GMT
wow must be xmas
Report J.O.TOBIN. November 26, 2017 4:44 PM GMT
Wasn't that keen on Jamies chances prior to last night on a few occasions he looked likely to blow. But last night showed  him being sympathetic and supportive to Iain, in touch with his feminine side with boys crying etc overall he just nicked the alpha male role with plenty of MEM support.
Was a decent red prior to last night and its the devils own work buying back reds in thin markets so ended up taking lower than ideal, also took 2.92 to 3.35 on top male I have him 2.4.
Toff is well clear but the Ashley/Charlie gives me a flicker of hope for my Fizz green a question really of when Alberts birthday is.
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 26, 2017 9:33 PM GMT
can't wait to see your next gift timHappy
Report timbuctooth November 26, 2017 9:38 PM GMT
With a LPM of 55, I`d say my fat finger was ahead of the curve, a real shrewdie... Now, how do I get the rest of me to such a state?
Report mach November 26, 2017 11:09 PM GMT
bail while you can Army, Dennis is not going to amount to anything, the results are in
Report armagnac November 29, 2017 9:34 PM GMT
dennis is the only camp mate who hasn't put a foot wrong
his time will come as numbers thin Cool
rest are imploding
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 29, 2017 11:55 PM GMT
https://forwardnotbackward.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/man-with-head-in-sand...
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 30, 2017 10:53 AM GMT
army the reason why Dennis does not appear to be getting the support is because he's not showing is emotions enough and not getting in tough with his feminine side, unlike Jamie and that's why Jamie has just been voted Camp President.  That and the fact that with Toff and Stanley exempt, Jamie had very little to beat imo, which is shown by Jennie finishing 2nd in that vote solely because she's a nice lass from Corrie.

I like Dennis.  He's a nice chap.  I thought he'd be more feisty, but he only just registers on the comedic scale, and that's simply not enough if you don't show your emotions with the viewers.  He's like Shappi, lovely people, but both too vanilla.  God knows how Shappi ahs made a career in comedy.  Makes Joel Dommett look like Rowan Atkinson.
Report bearcub December 7, 2017 10:02 PM GMT
Report armagnac December 7, 2017 10:12 PM GMT
iain lee - my biggest danger and have covered my stake on him, has the potential to hose up, if this was big brother, he would in this field, simples.
different audience, different dynamics
a toned down lee does go close though imo


Cool
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 11, 2017 9:42 PM GMT
"no reason whatsoever irish, the market has two massive ricks

1) dennis is way too big
2) toff is way too short

dennis's price compared to jamie's is laughable
"


Oh dear
Report armagnac December 11, 2017 9:52 PM GMT
over the 78 pages available, there's probably another 2000 posts like that one so keep going d1ckhead
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 11, 2017 9:55 PM GMT
I'm still waiting for her percentage.  Will post on here for you Wink
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