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George Bailey
11 Jun 16 00:24
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Date Joined: 04 Apr 10
| Topic/replies: 62,054 | Blogger: George Bailey's blog
Backed brexit as a trade but hanging on to it for now. Brexit 10% clear latest poll. I assumed the silent majority will win it for remain and they may but lots of outers and they are more likely to vote. Turnout and margins also interesting markets.

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By:
Tom_Ato
When: 11 Jun 16 09:20
My gut says the silent majority for Remain will turn up in force as we get closer to June 23rd. During the last month I've backed and traded out several times because the noise of the Leave campaign is hard to ignore, there's something about it and I am not comfortable opposing it. I spoke to my work colleagues about it and they want to vote Leave but are struggling to actually do it, and some are changing their mind and leaning towards voting Remain. my Irish friend believes 95% of his people will vote remain due to border fears. My Scottish friend also thinks her people will vote Remain. my Chinese friend is hoping we vote Remain so that he doesn't get sent back to China.
By:
George Bailey
When: 11 Jun 16 09:23
Markets in turmoil at latest poll...might be a reality check for leavers not convinced by Bank of England etc. Ireland Scotland and London big remainers...turnout crucial and I think it will be big.
By:
BB 3rd Cousin twice removed
When: 11 Jun 16 09:47
My Dutch friends do not understand why anyone would want to Leave. Some English friends have 350 million reasons per day.

I believe the £350M per day figure has been well and truly discredited now.
I agree with Tom...Like the Scottish Independence vote, enough Remain voters will turn up on the day, to scrape through.
By:
George Bailey
When: 11 Jun 16 09:52
#per week
By:
BB 3rd Cousin twice removed
When: 11 Jun 16 09:53
Shockedyes, week*. Sorry.
By:
George Bailey
When: 11 Jun 16 10:01
off topic but £50 free bet on russia game 365...bear says its not open to all but its on their website with no restrictions I can see
By:
bearcub
When: 11 Jun 16 10:15
All customer offers are limited to one per person, family, household address, email address, telephone number, same payment account number (e.g. debit or credit card, NETeller etc), and shared computer, e.g. public library or workplace. We reserve the right to withdraw the availability of any offer or all offers to any customer or group of customers at any time and at our sole and absolute discretion. Offers only apply to customers who have made an actual/real money deposit with bet365.
By:
George Bailey
When: 11 Jun 16 10:20
So I was right...you said it was only available to mugs...fill your boots fellow mug Wink
By:
bearcub
When: 11 Jun 16 10:24
I'm not surprised you have an unrestricted account with them
By:
George Bailey
When: 11 Jun 16 10:26
I wish......
By:
George Bailey
When: 11 Jun 16 10:27
I moved their price half a point last night on BB Laugh
By:
Froggitt
When: 11 Jun 16 10:38
I've been backing England LEAVE at between 3.0 and 3.25 this week. Only a few ticks different to the UK LEAVE price, but much more likely to be landed IMHO.
By:
George Bailey
When: 11 Jun 16 10:40
Where?
By:
Froggitt
When: 11 Jun 16 12:03
everywhere. hills was 3.25, now 2.87, but lads, corals, bald, 365 all look like its still 3.0. wales to vote LEAVE is similar price, similar value imho.
By:
Kauto SuperStar
When: 11 Jun 16 12:12
My two plays are 55%-60% and 60-65% remain (currently 4.7 and 11.0). People are historically scared of change, I can see a swing towards the remain camp on the day. I would be gobsmacked for a Brexit result.
By:
bearcub
When: 11 Jun 16 12:18
Have you ever met Dave ?
By:
George Bailey
When: 11 Jun 16 12:27
2/1 England might be value still...need to do more research. London pro remain but also likely to have lower turnout. I thought it was a straight Scottish ref analogy but pensioners who were the silent majority there are mostly brexiters. Consensus is swing is towards status quo towards the end (people fear risk over reward by 2:1) but Don't Knows are pretty evenly split I think. Immigration a bigger issue for many.
By:
George Bailey
When: 13 Jun 16 18:52
Flip flop coming Shocked
By:
timbuctooth
When: 13 Jun 16 22:49
Indeed, GB2. The market`s miles behind the actuality. As with the POTUS markets there are clearly too many lefty luvvies betting who are unable to bring themselves to accept reality; they`re FINNISH, the people don`t want them. Nice to see they`re as useless at betting as they are in politics. 32k blocker currently at 2.66, being moved lower every time it might be taken. Beyond that? Pennies. The flip flop could be a very sudden affair.

PHUCK CLINTON, AND PHUCK THE EU!!!LET THE PEOPLE RULE!!!
By:
George Bailey
When: 13 Jun 16 23:03
Sense of desperation in remain camp suggests poor internal polling. Lot resting of heads of "silent majority". Traded out of Trump to go level with a free green on him. The nihilistic anti Clinton in me almost hopes he wins.....almost
By:
timbuctooth
When: 13 Jun 16 23:08
I`d like to re-phrase that, if I may; by `lefty luvvies`, I also need to include chinless tory nonces and, in general, ALL politicians. They can all REV UP AND PHUCK OFF, and stop trying to control us. Bast@rds! Not one of them have ever asked me for my agreement in being subservient to them; I wouldn`t have given it.
By:
jollyswagman
When: 13 Jun 16 23:12
maybe the polls are showing that the silent majority want out?
By:
timbuctooth
When: 13 Jun 16 23:41
Well, wherever the extra votes are coming from, all the polls are pointing to a clear `leave`. Whatever happens next week, the prices tonight are, quite simply, wrong. Miles wrong.
By:
bearcub
When: 13 Jun 16 23:45
Up to 30% of people will change the way they vote or make up their minds in the week before the 23 June Brexit referendum, with half of these only deciding finally on polling day, according to research by academics at the London School of Economics.

The findings, in a report sponsored by Opinium and Lansons strategic consultancy, suggest that the result could swing either way – depending on whether it is the Remain or Leave camp that convinces the most undecided voters in the final 12 days of the campaign.
By:
Henry VIII
When: 13 Jun 16 23:51
Market is deffo lagging. The 4 respected polls of the last 3 days all show a majority to Leave, Leave being up from the previous week which also was showing momentum for Leave.
By:
timbuctooth
When: 13 Jun 16 23:56
Blocker gone, LPM only two ticks above the lowest meaningful amount matched. This price is crashing faster than one of Jolly`s trains!
By:
George Bailey
When: 14 Jun 16 00:06
Betting arguments both for and against leave/remain e.g. big turnout supposed to favour remain and I think there will be a big turnout but remain needs yoof to turn out and we know from Bernie Sanders that they tweet and attend rallies but don't turn up when needed.
By:
Henry VIII
When: 14 Jun 16 00:09
Is "big turnout supposed to favour remain" based on anything other than Remainers' hopes and prayers.
By:
George Bailey
When: 14 Jun 16 00:11
Yes its based on the fact that brexiteers are more motivated to vote
By:
timbuctooth
When: 14 Jun 16 00:14
Wouldn`t be letting that `30%` figure scare us, bear. On what basis has he done his research? Hasn`t been such a referendum recently enough to be able to draw any data. Presumably, he`s comparing this with previous General Elections? Highly flawed concept, rendering his findings irrelevant and meaningless. This isn`t a GE, it`s nothing like a GE. This one`s serious, this CAN make a difference.
As shown globally, we`re sick and tired of the ruling Establishment types enforcing ever more restrictions on our freedoms; as such, the decision making process inside every voter won`t be so easily swayed as it would be when asked to vote for political identikits.
I didn`t dare believe that the people might see what`s best for them, but now it really does look like it could happen. Hopefully, the first of many, with a `domino effect` kicking in. Fair play to the British people if they do have the cojones to go through with it, fair play indeed.
By:
Henry VIII
When: 14 Jun 16 00:18
So then a big turnout would mainly comprise Brexiters and give them a big majority.
By:
timbuctooth
When: 14 Jun 16 00:22
Not sure I understand your last couple of posts, GB2.
Whatever the pre-comceived informed wisdom was, it seems clear to me that the turnout will be massive; and with the vast majority of those `unexpected` voters being `leavers`. That`s the only side of the argument where there`s any motivation. There`s never enough motivation to bother voting for the status quo. Add in the Big Mo, and this is all over. The value now, for those who like a bigger priced winner, is in things like `Remain 40%-45%` , still in double figures.
By:
George Bailey
When: 14 Jun 16 00:29
If turnout is low most of them will be brexiteers if turnout is high then the remainers have turned up...there are only so many of each but thinking is majority including don't knows are remainers.
By:
bearcub
When: 14 Jun 16 00:32

Jun 13, 2016 -- 6:14PM, timbuctooth wrote:


Wouldn`t be letting that `30%` figure scare us, bear. On what basis has he done his research? Hasn`t been such a referendum recently enough to be able to draw any data. Presumably, he`s comparing this with previous General Elections? Highly flawed concept, rendering his findings irrelevant and meaningless. This isn`t a GE, it`s nothing like a GE. This one`s serious, this CAN make a difference. As shown globally, we`re sick and tired of the ruling Establishment types enforcing ever more restrictions on our freedoms; as such, the decision making process inside every voter won`t be so easily swayed as it would be when asked to vote for political identikits. I didn`t dare believe that the people might see what`s best for them, but now it really does look like it could happen. Hopefully, the first of many, with a `domino effect` kicking in. Fair play to the British people if they do have the cojones to go through with it, fair play indeed.


The LSE work is based on studies of voter behaviour in recent elections and referendums in 25 countries including the UK. Academics used panel studies and other interview and investigative methods to probe the psychological processes driving voters’ decisions.

By:
George Bailey
When: 14 Jun 16 00:33
That said ABs more likely to vote remain and they usually vote....poor anti immigrants are mostly brexiters but they stay in bed.... You pays your money you makes your choice
By:
George Bailey
When: 14 Jun 16 00:34
In the end its how people perceive "risk" for each option that will decide it
By:
timbuctooth
When: 14 Jun 16 00:44
Thanks for the explanation, bear, but I`m not buying it. There hasn`t been a UK EU referendum recently, and referenda held anywhere else are irrelevant. Not least down to `The Island Mentality` that the British have historically felt; no other countries enjoy/suffer such feelings.
As with POTUS, all the suits have failed to recognise that voters have moved on, the game has changed. It`s no use using yesterday`s methods for measuring tomorrows election. Most particularly for a vote that has had no direct comparison, ever.
Let the researchers do their thing, let them charge bundles for their findings, but they`re just guessers. And they`re guessing wrongly, at that! Phucking chancers!!!
By:
timbuctooth
When: 14 Jun 16 00:47
Sorry, GB2, forgot about you. I`m afraid you`re falling for the old, out-dated theory of how people might behave in GEs. See my above posts for explanations of how flawed that thinking is.
By:
bearcub
When: 14 Jun 16 00:55
Dunning–Kruger effect
The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which relatively unskilled persons suffer illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability to be much higher than it really is. Dunning and Kruger attributed this bias to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their own ineptitude and evaluate their own ability accurately. Their research also suggests corollaries: highly skilled individuals may underestimate their relative competence and may erroneously assume that tasks which are easy for them are also easy for others.[1]

The bias was first experimentally observed by David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University in 1999. They postulated that the effect is the result of internal illusion in the unskilled, and external misperception in the skilled: "The miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others."

Night Plain
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