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***Eurovision 2016 Final - In Running Discussion Thread***

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By:
armagnac
When: 15 May 16 00:46
glad to know the market was way way off
keeps me interested
good night
By:
Corbyguy
When: 15 May 16 00:47
Well its the first time i have ever known in the 5 years of betting on Eurovision on Betfair that the Odds On faveourite has got beat.
By:
Corbyguy
When: 15 May 16 00:47
good night army
By:
George Bailey
When: 15 May 16 00:47
At least Armenia last year was about a genuine holocaust...Ukraine have plenty of blood on their hands
By:
scandanavian_haven
When: 15 May 16 00:48
Just seems bizarre that a non European country can enter, rotating does seem fairer at least.

Will probably have Brazil and Argentina playing in the football Euro's sooner or latter.
By:
honestcl
When: 15 May 16 00:48
Corbyguy

Well i couldn't believe that the Norway jury give Sweden a big fat 0.

______________

Thank God I didn't have any money sitting in my b w i n account.  They were offering 2.1 on Norway giving Sweden the 12.  Looks a shoe-in.  If I wasn't too lazy to go and get my debit card out of my coat I'd have lost a heap on that!!
By:
Corbyguy
When: 15 May 16 00:49
Norway televote may have gave Sweden 12 i will check.
By:
George Bailey
When: 15 May 16 00:50
Not often a specials winner doesn't have its own train....though that could be bollox?
By:
Corbyguy
When: 15 May 16 00:50
Norway televote gave lithuania 12, poland 10, australia 8 and sweden 7
By:
honestcl
When: 15 May 16 00:52
Corbyguy

Well its the first time i have ever known in the 5 years of betting on Eurovision on Betfair that the Odds On faveourite has got beat.

_________________

Happened to Russia last year as well.  They were 1.8 (or possibly even lower) during the voting

France 2011 tanked after trading in the low 2s

Armenia amazingly traded at close to 2.0 (possibly lower) two months before the 2014 contest

Denmark at 2.0 IR in 2010 contest voting.
By:
honestcl
When: 15 May 16 00:53
George Bailey

Not often a specials winner doesn't have its own train....though that could be bollox?

_____

Mans didn't have one last year either...which amazed me given it was the obvious winner from the moment the international juries anointed it at Melfest
By:
George Bailey
When: 15 May 16 00:54
Backed Russia when Oz went 1.5ish expecting some kind of turnaround...got it half right Sad
By:
Corbyguy
When: 15 May 16 00:54

May 15, 2016 -- 12:52AM, honestcl wrote:


CorbyguyWell its the first time i have ever known in the 5 years of betting on Eurovision on Betfair that the Odds On faveourite has got beat._________________Happened to Russia last year as well.  They were 1.8 (or possibly even lower) during the votingFrance 2011 tanked after trading in the low 2s Armenia amazingly traded at close to 2.0 (possibly lower) two months before the 2014 contestDenmark at 2.0 IR in 2010 contest voting.


I meant to say before the start of the showing of the contest.

By:
Henry VIII
When: 15 May 16 00:55

May 15, 2016 -- 12:47AM, Corbyguy wrote:


Well its the first time i have ever known in the 5 years of betting on Eurovision on Betfair that the Odds On faveourite has got beat.


More unusual - 2 odds-on favs got beat tonight.

By:
George Bailey
When: 15 May 16 00:56
Ukraine still only 5th on itunes...strange night
By:
Corbyguy
When: 15 May 16 00:57
Well its been exciting. The first time ever i think that the winner did not win the jury vote or televote.
By:
Henry VIII
When: 15 May 16 00:58

May 15, 2016 -- 12:57AM, Corbyguy wrote:


Well its been exciting. The first time ever i think that the winner did not win the jury vote or televote.


It is.

They also didn't win their SF.

By:
honestcl
When: 15 May 16 00:58
Great spot corby - hadn't noticed that
By:
Corbyguy
When: 15 May 16 00:59
I wonder if someone will now ask EBU to change the voting system again. I rather liked the voted this year. More exciting to watch.
By:
honestcl
When: 15 May 16 00:59
Gotta laugh

Last year there was a bit of fan outrage that Italy won the fan vote but didnt win.  This year Russia wins the fan vote but no one care because Russia are the baddies!  Laugh
By:
Corbyguy
When: 15 May 16 01:02
I wonder if Russia will participate next year in Ukraine i hope they do participate.
By:
honestcl
When: 15 May 16 01:02
Corbyguy

I wonder if someone will now ask EBU to change the voting system again. I rather liked the voted this year. More exciting to watch.

__________________

The Swedes introduced the douze points in 1975
The Swedes have now changed the system again

I think the only way they can 'Melfest' it even more is to ensure all broadcasts are done in Swedish regardless of which country hosts it!!
By:
George Bailey
When: 15 May 16 01:02
Serbia finished 18th...that 1/2 lay top 10 was the value Sad
By:
honestcl
When: 15 May 16 01:07
George Bailey

Serbia finished 18th...that 1/2 lay top 10 was the value Sad

________

Agreed - considered laying at 1.6.  I bottled it simply because I though they'd hoover up the Balkan vote a-la 2012.
By:
five leaves left
When: 15 May 16 01:10

May 15, 2016 -- 12:56AM, George Bailey wrote:


Ukraine still only 5th on itunes...strange night


diaspora doesn't show up on itunes. They just vote

By:
George Bailey
When: 15 May 16 01:10
There record is pretty bad last few years...failed to qualify twice outside top 10 a few times...unloved on itunes...overthought it
By:
George Bailey
When: 15 May 16 01:12

May 15, 2016 -- 1:10AM, five leaves left wrote:


May 15, 2016 -- 12:56AM, George Bailey wrote:Ukraine still only 5th on itunes...strange nightdiaspora doesn't show up on itunes. They just vote


Too easy to dismiss itunes...not as accurate as last year but worth it for Belgium and Bulgaria in running if nothing else

By:
George Bailey
When: 15 May 16 01:15
But purely on diaspora vote you are right
By:
honestcl
When: 15 May 16 01:16
I laid Belgium at 6 for Top 10.  A niggling annoyance having sneaked a nice win last year on Top 10 when I landed 9th & 10th spots.

This year backed Holland for Top 10 - finished 11th and then the reverse for Belgium

Really should invest the time into Top 10 more next year as I think that can yield a better return.
By:
George Bailey
When: 15 May 16 01:22
Yes top 10 a good market...I was playing catch up after backing France in o/r based on (too) early itune stats...won't happen again.

I'm sure that £450 up at 1.7 Belgium was there when they HAD to finish at least 10th....my finger froze over it
By:
honestcl
When: 15 May 16 01:26
Just casting my mind back over this decade and backing Ukraine Top 10 is like printing your own money.....apart from 2012 - the only year I backed them for Top 10!!  Crazy
By:
George Bailey
When: 15 May 16 01:28
Belgium singing first spooked me a bit but itunes and twitter kept me strong...are there any stats re singing positions and final outcomes? Second worse than first I think?
By:
timbuctooth
When: 15 May 16 01:46
I believe second is considered the death slot. Norton mentioned it tonight.
By:
George Bailey
When: 15 May 16 01:48
Yes it is...never had a winner
By:
George Bailey
When: 15 May 16 01:54
Stats back nearly 20 years...Belgium punched well above its starting position

.http://www.escstats.com/     ...winner stats under basic stats link
By:
George Bailey
When: 15 May 16 01:57
Only 2 out of last 19 winners started less than 10th
By:
Roger De Bris
When: 15 May 16 02:16
There was a savage move for Ukraine on the 5th May 25/1 into 8/1.
Anyone work out the reason for this?
Great call by someone!
By:
Roger De Bris
When: 15 May 16 02:18
I talked myself out of that Serbia 1.6 Top 10 Lay.
Somebody mentioned diaspora etc...
I went with Poland instead and was counting my money when it hit 14.0 for Top 10 having laid at 7.0...Laugh
By:
Cider
When: 15 May 16 02:24
Serbia has a strong diaspora traditionally. Didn't work out this year!. The plunge on Ukraine was when the courtsiders got to see Ukraine's first rehearsal, ie the press centre on a live feed.
By:
Roger De Bris
When: 15 May 16 02:29
The big move for Australia 12th May 20/1>8/1 then 8/1>4/1 13th....
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