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armagnac
03 Jul 15 09:18
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 59,411 | Blogger: armagnac's blog
ask yourselves why was james jordon the last guest at hotel bb.
then ask yourselves why was he allowed to change around the staff/guests.
the answer is the prods are, oh so clever
i love the subtle touch
they knew that james jordon was a big marc fan

so tonight on eviction night when most votes are cast, we get to see 'new' best friends forever marc and james 'the most hated and loathed male contestant of all time' hold hands and generally lick each others bits.
so after aligning himself with the most hated female contestant of all time helen, the prods thought it would be a good idea to align him with the male equivalent james.
that is just motivation to vote on a silver platter for me.

what is he really up against ?

jack - turning into a bit of a comedy character, the public are starting to feel sorry for him..not really much motivation to vote, most feel sympathy for him.
will be very safe after joel attacks him in tonight show.

harry - she had a truly awful edit last night, there is no doubting that, but this girl really does need help..there is an underlying mental health problem going on but the big question is, is that motivation to vote or not ?
now i know someone with similar problems, and a lot of their  friends actually have more sympathy for that person than hate..coz they want them to get the help they need, not make things worse.
i see harry as a sympathetic character reaching out for help, rather than a nasty vindictive person some might be seeing.
im sure the mems will see it my way, as it was my mrs that pointed it out to me.
she will be back with nick tonight in the edit and things look calm again, i just dont see the motivation needed to get past marc.


so in the last two days i have provided over 20 very good reasons why marc will get voted for, and the key word is 'motivation to vote'
we have seen HM's leave with just 2 or 3 bad reasons who are a lot less vile than marc.
so how on earth can he possibly not get evicted with so much running against him.

people could not take there frustration out on helen or james in a VTE, but now they can get some revenge by voting out there smirking weasel of a mate marc.

for me he's as good as gone
#motivation
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Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 6:30 PM BST
The split theory is more if all hm's were up Marc goes ...and what BB has just said.
Report Henry VIII July 3, 2015 6:30 PM BST
Forget murder but the moronic masses are fickle. They change with the wind. Like me, I used to hate Marc, now I want to have his children.
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 6:31 PM BST
Laugh
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 6:32 PM BST

Jul 3, 2015 -- 12:30PM, Henry VIII wrote:


Forget murder but the moronic masses are fickle. They change with the wind. Like me, I used to hate Marc, now I want to have his children.


Tart...I've always loved him Love

Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed July 3, 2015 6:33 PM BST
You could do a lot worse, Henry.
Report Henry VIII July 3, 2015 6:33 PM BST
If there's a campaign to save Marc then that improves his chances from the situation with no campaign, however split his supporters are.

Still no logic for split theory.
Report keynes July 3, 2015 6:35 PM BST
If you're so sure of his eviction, why are his odds to win tightening all day (with eviction odds drifting). Somebody's not putting their money where their mouth is!
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 6:36 PM BST
I'm not sure what you think the ST is Henry.
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 6:37 PM BST
balls deep keynes
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 6:37 PM BST
You don't understand a vte keynes Cry
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 6:38 PM BST
the whole non-voting audience dont understand VTE
Report Helmuthian Folds July 3, 2015 6:39 PM BST
Will be a shame if Jack goes, he is finally showing some potential.

Think he had Joel spot on to be honest but what I found most interesting was that Joel kept answering Jack's questions but looking at Marc which was a blatant attempt to get support but Marc just stayed out of it and let them get on with it.
Report Henry VIII July 3, 2015 6:39 PM BST
"I'm not sure what you think the ST is Henry."

In the example above some think: Harry's behaviour helped Marc because it will split anti-Marc votes between Jack and Harry.
Report Henry VIII July 3, 2015 6:41 PM BST
"You don't understand a vte keynes"

Why not?
Report Henry VIII July 3, 2015 6:42 PM BST
Got to pop out now. I will eagerly catch up with all the meaningless dribble on my return.
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed July 3, 2015 6:43 PM BST
I see what Henry is saying. Anti Marc voters who would have evicted him, may be more keen to evict Harry instead.
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 6:44 PM BST
The purist ST theory is: In an eviction the more HM's up the more chance the most marmite one goes. Your example is an addendum to the ST theory which states that the most marmite's chances are further reduced where there is more than one obvious receptacle for a "to save" vote.
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 6:45 PM BST

Jul 3, 2015 -- 12:41PM, Henry VIII wrote:


"You don't understand a vte keynes"Why not?


Because only the Inner Sanctum do

Report keynes July 3, 2015 6:45 PM BST
I understand a VTE and its implications or Marc. I agree with your logic too: a split vote between Harry and Jack portends Marcs eviction. Yet at this point, this should be showing up in prices. It is not. One possibility is the producers are mass voting themselves to keep Marc in; it would surely be cheaper to do this than to drag in more z-rated celebrities to fill the void
Report Cider July 3, 2015 6:47 PM BST
The motivation is to stop Marc from winning, this is your chance. With a week or so left, why waste your cash on a nothing hm like Harry? She wins fook all, and most voters will be aware of that. 

And rightly or wrongly, there is still a hangover from Helen winning that hurts Marc's chances imv.
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 6:47 PM BST
this should be showing up in prices

why, did you not see the last two evictions ??
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 6:48 PM BST
We could be in the surreal situation where someone many think will be evicted is backed down to odds on favourite the day of the eviction #amazingscenes
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 6:48 PM BST
cider - spot on as per
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 6:49 PM BST
if he slips through the net, it would of been a golden op wasted
Report Cider July 3, 2015 6:51 PM BST
You add in the hardcore fans of bb favourites Nikki and Brian that Marc is perceived to have offended, and there is a very strong case to be made for the Marc eviction. What is tougher to gauge is the motivation of his own fans, and whether they are aware or care enough about the impending risk.
Report keynes July 3, 2015 6:52 PM BST
why, did you not see the last two evictions ??

Yes, I observed last week, where Simon was moved from being an outsider to second favourite to be evicted. The only thing that foretold his eviction last week were the odds movements. Ive also seen such movements in past evictions. Today's price movement points to Harry
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 6:53 PM BST
should be a landslide in reality cider
Report MythicalMadMan July 3, 2015 6:53 PM BST
Just got Match at 6.8 for Mark on eviction and feel like ive missed value from when the show starts Confused
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 6:53 PM BST
A "golden op" for the 24% of haters to circumvent the wishes of the 76% who want to see get through. Its democracy Jim but not as we know it.
Report keynes July 3, 2015 6:55 PM BST
And what about the production team who have more motivation, resources, and inside info to keep Marc in than anyone?
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 6:55 PM BST
rehearsals on now and the banana bus boys are all there shouting for harry to be out
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 6:56 PM BST
too deep keynes ive had a long week
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 6:57 PM BST
people at track all lumping on harry
Report Cider July 3, 2015 6:57 PM BST

Jul 3, 2015 -- 12:53PM, armagnac wrote:


should be a landslide in reality cider


I don't know about that, but win or lose Marc represents a high value bet right now, all things taken into consideration. I don't however feel it is a done deal.

Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 6:57 PM BST
Do C5 want him in? or out? Shake it all about.
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 6:58 PM BST
yes its value, as punters thats all we can ask for
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 6:58 PM BST
I agree Plain
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 7:00 PM BST
1.8 "its very close" 2.2 nothing
Report VardonVoo. July 3, 2015 7:02 PM BST
Just read the entire opening post. Skipping to the end would have been sufficient though - I think Army encapsulates the reason to vote Marc out beautifully with the two simple words "smirking weasel".
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed July 3, 2015 7:03 PM BST
Three words trumps your two, VV. "Made the series".
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 7:07 PM BST
One word trumps the lot..."legend"
Report Cider July 3, 2015 7:07 PM BST
'Made' being the pertinent word ;)
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 7:08 PM BST
Laugh ty voo
Report MythicalMadMan July 3, 2015 7:09 PM BST
Some serious laying of Mark going on
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 7:10 PM BST
9.8 matched Shocked
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed July 3, 2015 7:11 PM BST
and a big chunk wanting 2.4 in the OR Shocked
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 7:11 PM BST
12s ShockedShocked
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 7:12 PM BST
oh dear, here come the insiders late on as usual Cry
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 7:12 PM BST
If there were insiders which there aren't it would be insiders
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 7:13 PM BST
stick to the fruits army Cry
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 7:14 PM BST
When do you start my specials lessons? Laugh
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 7:14 PM BST
sam Last price matched:     5.90 LaughLaugh
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 7:15 PM BST
market in chaos
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed July 3, 2015 7:15 PM BST
It might not be insiders... It could be Eliese.
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 7:15 PM BST

Jul 3, 2015 -- 1:14PM, armagnac wrote:


sam Last price matched:     5.90


Wink

Report armagnac July 3, 2015 7:16 PM BST
dig in chaps, the mugs have arrived Cool
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 7:17 PM BST

Jul 3, 2015 -- 1:15PM, armagnac wrote:


market in chaos


Cool

Report armagnac July 3, 2015 7:18 PM BST
you voting on the poll bails ?
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 7:20 PM BST
Just have army Wink
Report stridingedge July 3, 2015 7:22 PM BST
no hope of marc going tonight

the shrewdies on here not so shrewd Shocked
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 7:28 PM BST
Emperors' still perceived as wearing clothes till result announced...smugometer could yet swing back off the Richter Scale Laugh
Report stridingedge July 3, 2015 7:30 PM BST
not a hope for them bails

looks like i didn't even get value at 8/1 the other day Laugh
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 7:30 PM BST
social media never beats the casuals
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 7:34 PM BST
casuals are with Marc
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 7:36 PM BST
Its still close stride...just depends whether the anti Marc vote holds firm and where Harry gets her extra votes from last night.
Report George Bailey July 3, 2015 7:37 PM BST
Could be 4x25% Laugh
Report keynes July 3, 2015 7:46 PM BST
Its all over: look at $$$ to back Marc
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 7:47 PM BST
Crazy
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 7:48 PM BST
favs get turned over all day every day on every sport in the world
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 7:48 PM BST
and btw this is the most clueless market in the world
so good luck
Report Henry VIII July 3, 2015 7:55 PM BST

Jul 3, 2015 -- 12:52PM, keynes wrote:


why, did you not see the last two evictions ?? Yes, I observed last week, where Simon was moved from being an outsider to second favourite to be evicted. The only thing that foretold his eviction last week were the odds movements. Ive also seen such movements in past evictions. Today's price movement points to Harry


Rubbish. Many people were backing Simon including myself. If there were insiders the last 2 weeks would have had totally different markets.

Insiders are sometimes evident, eg especially IAC, but there's no point crying wolf when they're not.

Report VardonVoo. July 3, 2015 7:58 PM BST
Even if he doesn't go, if the prods don't want an a**h*le winner again they have a week of cash bombs to offer. Marc is as famous as he's going to get now, so making the final week and getting, say, £50k would be a great result.
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed July 3, 2015 8:00 PM BST
Marc Evans to win OR?
Report Cider July 3, 2015 8:05 PM BST
fwiw if you can get on at sky there's some juicy prices in the side markets
Report timbuctooth July 3, 2015 8:23 PM BST
Big night coming up, boys!
The market is giving me reality checks every time I look at it, and I begin to realise I`ve phucked up big-style. Then I remember that the market`s always wrong, and I cheer up, knowing it all comes down to the edit, and I`m still in the game.  Then get the reality check and phucked feeling returns, then... repeat to fade. Feeling distinctly schizo!

I think the bottom line is; we have no idea if he goes or not, but he must be so close to going that the prices demand a back of him, meaning Sam, Jack and Harry max red, Marc probably my biggest ever eviction green.

Going to make my dinner now, and the butterflies are so pervasive, I`m beginning to see this meal as the last one of the condemned man. Too nervous to be posting much tonight, so if Marc stays, I`ll be going outside, and I may be some time.
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 8:25 PM BST
Grin good luck tim
Report timbuctooth July 3, 2015 8:25 PM BST
Oh, and best of luck to all, but especially army!
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 8:27 PM BST
Cool
Report stridingedge July 3, 2015 8:27 PM BST
i'm pretty sure he's staying tim like i was before some said he was a cert to go Shocked

gl though
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 8:28 PM BST
i was getting worried coz u had not posted much, dont worry
im sh1tting a brick too Scared
Report stridingedge July 3, 2015 8:28 PM BST
small brucie for me if he gets the boot, but it's not happening i'm afraid.

will be on to eat huge slice of humble pie if wrong Wink
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 8:29 PM BST
bit early to be cocky
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 8:29 PM BST
oh ok Wink
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 8:30 PM BST
was gonna set bear on you
Report armagnac July 3, 2015 8:31 PM BST
im green on adjoa and harriet
i love specials  Love
Report mach July 3, 2015 8:33 PM BST
Good luck tim, I've taken a more conservative approach to this series, slow steady green
Report Henry VIII July 3, 2015 8:33 PM BST
Last time Marc faced the eviction crowds he got an indecisive mixed reaction, but fairly negative iirc. I expect big cheers for him tonight and his eviction price to drift.
Report NBK July 3, 2015 8:35 PM BST
in you original synopsis you left out Sam.
Report MythicalMadMan July 3, 2015 8:36 PM BST
Current book

Harry Amelia 5.90 €196.95  €965.05
Marc 6.40 €130.21  €702.94
Sam 60  €10.00  €590.00
Report NBK July 3, 2015 8:38 PM BST
Something must be going down tonight as thre is a live feed after BUTS, any ideas anybody?????
Report bearcub July 3, 2015 8:40 PM BST
They have it every week
Report NBK July 3, 2015 8:43 PM BST
Oh ok I'm in ZZZZZZZZZ land by then - need my ugly sleep
Report Cider July 3, 2015 8:44 PM BST
pressed up after the brief drify Cool
Report scampi July 4, 2015 12:15 AM BST
Well played Army, i know why you chose your username now, just a few letters away from  almanac, you sly, vain bugger!
Report scampi July 4, 2015 2:21 AM BST
Just to add, i did see the Simon eviction coming but not the Marc one so great going those two threads (saying Marc was going).
Report armagnac July 4, 2015 8:31 AM BST
Laugh thanks scamps
Report armagnac July 4, 2015 8:32 AM BST
reminds me of back to the future Wink
love those films
Report jon b July 4, 2015 1:17 PM BST
yep , a big congrats to the man that knew, Armagnac so well done to you and those that followed you in Happy
Report armagnac July 5, 2015 9:04 AM BST
cheers jon b Cool
Report armagnac September 20, 2018 11:47 AM BST
and this was drill bit two
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