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jack12321
13 Oct 13 04:40
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Date Joined: 23 Jul 06
| Topic/replies: 3,257 | Blogger: jack12321's blog
Nicholas is the only one that screams winner to me, overwhelmingly ticks all the boxes, appeals to all age ranges and has the massive Scottish regional vote. No other act appeals as strongly across all age ranges, a vital element for getting the millions of votes needed to win.

Boring selection maybe, but really struggling to see past him - producers may not want another flop boy winner but they're going to struggle to stop this train. 9/2 looks value to me.

Cannot fathom how he will not make the final, and each way 1/4 123 at 5.5 gives you slightly better than evens to be in the top 3 - meaning you still profit if he comes 2nd or 3rd.

Anyone else on board? Would love to get on a longer odds train but I just can't see it..
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Report hemsby November 16, 2013 10:42 PM GMT
I've already had a decent bet on a Sam B,Nick s/f as insurance GB.
Report GeorgeBrush November 16, 2013 10:43 PM GMT
He'll be back at 6 when relegated to his mid pack slot next week
Report GeorgeBrush November 16, 2013 10:44 PM GMT
Singing 'you make loving fun' or 'voulez vous couchez avec moi'
Report LendUsAFiver November 16, 2013 10:44 PM GMT
That's great because Sam will be 1.4 in that case :)
Report LendUsAFiver November 16, 2013 10:47 PM GMT
The beauty is Tamera's low odds have given us such amazing value to trade this show, it's been a pretty easy year you've got to admit...hell, it got a bit wobbly in places but that was the market and over-zealous traders trying to bluff against the odds.
Report mach November 17, 2013 3:57 AM GMT
3.9, chargeExcited
Report LendUsAFiver November 17, 2013 11:27 AM GMT
just downloaded it on itunes...incredible control of his voice, puts the emotion something else into it, I can't put my finger on it but he has a magnificent recording voice for a male.
Report GeorgeBrush November 17, 2013 11:30 AM GMT
Pass the kleenex
Report LendUsAFiver November 18, 2013 11:30 AM GMT
Nicks birthday THIS Saturday so it's going to be a super rampfest for him. It's all Nick, Nick, Nick at the moment.

This weekends YouTube views:
Sam Baily (120,272) Likes 2,914 - Dislikes 95 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GllreYuqRmI
Nick (236,783) - Likes 6,430 - 187 Dislikes - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1gbyKj-aLI

Pretty massive contrast considering the odds and the Scot fanbase. Market is wrong, wrong, wrong.
Report stu November 18, 2013 11:39 AM GMT
Got nice wins on both Sam and Nick, but I'm hedging slightly more in favour of Nick. They both have positives, he has just that little bit more IMO.
Report Asparagus Man November 18, 2013 11:39 AM GMT
Should move his birthday to Sunday December 15th imo Wink
Report stu November 18, 2013 11:43 AM GMT
Just wish I'd piled in more when he was a bigger price than Tamera last week! Cry
Report LendUsAFiver November 18, 2013 11:43 AM GMT
That's the after-party Asparagus ;)
Report LendUsAFiver November 18, 2013 11:47 AM GMT
Also, he will be 17! So Sharon can stop boring us with that sexteen sh** and the comments will hopefully be more constructive towards his performance rather than his bloody age, it is a singing competition after all!
Report Fallen Angel November 18, 2013 1:37 PM GMT
Had a cracking bet last week when lads pushed Nick out to 9/2 and were still 3 places 1/5 of the odds. Crazy considering there were only 7 runners at that stage at two were huge outsiders. If there was a 3 place only market it would have been nowhere near that value. I thought he was around 1.5 at best and yet 1.9 was effectively on offer. They quickly cut the place terms Laugh
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2013 2:43 PM GMT
Prolly not the time to back him when he's had his only pimp slot and they'd much prefer Sam RC or Tamera winning but surprised this hasn't been shown:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/scotland/24967134

This guy is 100% a true Jock.
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2013 2:47 PM GMT
IF the Sun story was correct they had to get the story out before last weekend.
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2013 2:50 PM GMT
Also noticed in the results show instead of saying "what was your favourite performance" where they'd have been forced to say Nick, they replaced it with "who will sell more albums" so they could continue to ramp Sam B and RC.  Thing is that might backfire because it could lead to the impression that Nick needs to win more.
Report stu November 18, 2013 6:23 PM GMT
CB - how do you feel about the patriotic support behind him, apparent in things like the papers etc?
Report timbuctooth November 18, 2013 6:49 PM GMT
CLYDEBANK29 18 Nov 13 14:43 
but surprised this hasn't been shown:

The fact that it wasn`t shown is very revealing. So much could have been made of it, but nothing. One of the main reasons I`m still max red on him.
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2013 7:24 PM GMT
tim I actually meant I'm surprised no one mentioned it on this thread, rather than surprised it wasn't shown on the actual show.  It was never going to be shown on ITV.

stu there's an advert that I can't recall but lets say it's Carlsberg, which it isn't, but lets assume it is.

"There's lager and there's Carlsberg lager"

well I would say

"There's Scottish support and then there's Nick McDonald Scottish support"

He's the only alternative to Sam Bailey.

I'd go almost so far to say that the reason for the massive Sam Bailey ramping is because they think she has by far the best chance of beating Nick.  Sam is probably the best winner for the show itself in any event, even if they were initially hoping for a RC success or for the incredibly unlikeable Tamera to win.
Report Cider November 18, 2013 7:29 PM GMT
Good to hear. He has broad appeal, as well as being a Scot. And oc an excellent vocalist.
Report squares November 18, 2013 7:33 PM GMT
has been mentioned on some of the XF threads - well in advance and at the time of the performance, perhaps not on this one then?
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2013 7:33 PM GMT
Pimp will be Luke this week,  Tamera next week (to get her to the final 4) RC (to get them to the final) and then RC again in the final going first with the lines open from the beginning.
Report LendUsAFiver November 18, 2013 7:37 PM GMT
Ramping Sam? Who is ramping Sam? Quite the opposite from what we have witnessed this weekend.
Report Cider November 18, 2013 7:38 PM GMT
Singing twice the order less influential. b2 in the semi looks likely to drag a tco into final
Report timbuctooth November 18, 2013 7:47 PM GMT
Why couldn`t ITV have had a camera there? At least some stills?
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2013 7:51 PM GMT
I call getting endorsements from Gary Lineker, Robbie Williams and Michael Bolton massive ramping myself.  Plus her VT last week was one of the best I've ever seen in the history of the show.  Who was your favourite act this week?  They always say Sam Bailey.  Who will sell the most records?  They say Sam Bailey
Report melv November 18, 2013 7:54 PM GMT
He has broad appeal.

Cider i query this.

Why is this not shown in youtube hits. I admit i am not a teenage girl but isn't he old fashioned, stumpy, big eared, a bit ugly, bad at dancing and difficult to understand.
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2013 7:54 PM GMT
Gary Lineker, Robbie Williams and Michael Bolton = 3 A list MEM favourites.  Imo that's just about the biggest ramp there's ever been.
Report melv November 18, 2013 7:56 PM GMT
I do think he's the winner. And with that last comment I've just garnered a few more Scottish votes for him.
Report melv November 18, 2013 7:56 PM GMT
I do think he's the winner. And with that last comment I've just garnered a few more Scottish votes for him.
Report GeorgeBrush November 18, 2013 7:57 PM GMT
I agree with CB

But for song choice this week (everyone has had a dodgy song choice) there has only been support for SamB from all corners so far
Report melv November 18, 2013 8:02 PM GMT
George if you think " Something" was a dodgy song choice I wonder what market you think Sam is aiming for? IMO its Shirley Bassey fans.

If she did a naff performance of "Something" that's her fault not the song. IMO.
Report Cider November 18, 2013 8:03 PM GMT
I took SamBa onside a little bit as if she does win I fail to see how she doesn't make crimbo #1.
Report GeorgeBrush November 18, 2013 8:09 PM GMT

Nov 18, 2013 -- 8:02PM, melv wrote:


George if you think " Something" was a dodgy song choice I wonder what market you think Sam is aiming for? IMO its Shirley Bassey fans.If she did a naff performance of "Something" that's her fault not the song. IMO.


She was terrific, it's a dreary dirge of a song for this show though

Report GeorgeBrush November 18, 2013 8:10 PM GMT
But, before you get upset, a lot of my fav songs would be totally out of place on this
Report attitude adjuster November 18, 2013 8:19 PM GMT
Never WhoopsGrin
Report stu November 18, 2013 8:21 PM GMT
AA - we need your scottish expertise too Cool
Report attitude adjuster November 18, 2013 8:45 PM GMT
there's a fair bit of coverage up here

but the show has not really caught fire yet...there's no real hysteria yet.

it's all about the final 2 weeks.
Report GeorgeBrush November 18, 2013 8:48 PM GMT
I don't think there'll ever be hysteria over Nick
Report attitude adjuster November 18, 2013 8:49 PM GMT
wait till the kilt comes out for the duet with Subo WinkHappy
Report GeorgeBrush November 18, 2013 8:50 PM GMT
Just wrong
Report GeorgeBrush November 18, 2013 8:50 PM GMT
Especially the bit where she sticks her hand up it
Report attitude adjuster November 18, 2013 8:59 PM GMT
ShockedDevil
Report mach November 18, 2013 9:10 PM GMT
as long as she doesn't get her co
Report mach November 18, 2013 9:10 PM GMT
ck out
Report stu November 19, 2013 11:45 AM GMT
Laugh

And thanks aa and CB - I think there's enough to help his vote by sounds of it, and like say it's all about the finish.
Report melv November 19, 2013 6:14 PM GMT
Yep.

A spell in the bottom two a bit later on would put the wind up a few kilts and kick start the vote avalanche and Xfactor profits.
Report attitude adjuster November 19, 2013 9:28 PM GMT
Clearly we are being watched

page 3 story in the Daily Record today

"Subo rooting for our Nicholas"..all to do with Flower of Scotland etc  Laugh
Report GeorgeBrush November 19, 2013 9:39 PM GMT
deramp Wink
Report Henry VIII November 19, 2013 10:36 PM GMT
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/article5270864.ece
Report melv November 20, 2013 3:50 AM GMT
Our Nick the braveheart flower of Scotland.

Thanks Henry. You see; when  patriotism and nationism takes hold all these deep personal and family associations catch fire. Add to that a nation that loves winnning this and you have the Scottish mulitvote thats a differnt phenomena to mere fans.More powerful than the legendary teenage girl vote even. Just wait till the Scots start betting.

Sorry all other supporters; we have the winner. Its xfacotor as war by another name. And the papers are already trying to sell copy and advertising trading on it.

They say its week 8 when the writng appears on the wall.
Report melv November 20, 2013 4:02 AM GMT
I'll be ming this frindly football match for evdence of movements in  Psyche. Hee's one.


Chloe Mclagan3 days ago He makes everyone feel so PROUD to be Scottish! Well done Nicholas your amazing!
Report melv November 20, 2013 4:06 AM GMT
Sorry.

I'll be mining a 0-0 friendly footy match for movements in the Scottish psyche. Here's one.

Chloe Mclagan3 days ago He makes everyone feel so PROUD to be Scottish! Well done Nicholas your amazing!

Possibly leading the charge of the teenage girl regiment.
Report LendUsAFiver November 20, 2013 8:44 AM GMT
Agree Melv, I want to move a few k from SB into Nick but just feel the media are doing a fantastic job feeding the lemmings. I think a bailout point will be around 1.3 Sam Bailey if we see anything like previous years ;)
Report melv November 20, 2013 9:05 AM GMT
It did occur to me that a very low Sam price is great even for Nick and R.C backers.

Call me an idealist. Or just some-one with no money to play with but Surely its usefull for people looking for helpful advice that they get opions form some-one with no axe to grind.

I can't stand Nick he will make no contribution to entertainment. I think there's even better people at promoting nationalism. That women singing flower of Scotland at another match  is much better. And if I was a nationalist I'd resent my fine feeling  being used to hype a stupid nasty little TV show.

But in a fortnight millions of Scotts will be raring to multivote Nick to victory. Their greatest motivation will be knowing they can do it easily. And do it for Scotland. For fun.

I do know thousands of people love Sam Bailey. I don't understand it. But I also know they don't love her that much.

Also remember the markets know nothing. she might never have won a week.
Report LendUsAFiver November 20, 2013 11:13 AM GMT
The problem with Sam is not just age, it's also aesthetics. In a world were people want to see perfect looking people on TV, she does unfortunately fall short of this criteria and her pre-song makeover photo is a disaster, she doesn't look nearly as bad as that image projects...a minor point but stays in our sub-conscious. She has a great personality and belts them songs out but when it comes to finals voting it's all down to the multi-vote. Her generation and older pick up the phone, vote and then that's it, they've done their bit.

Sam will attract the same kind of voters as Jermaine, enough to get you to the line but just not over it.

The last large female to win was McManus but I'd put that down to demographics more than anything.
Report LendUsAFiver November 20, 2013 11:16 AM GMT
I noticed several media stories saying she has been winning every week by a large margin. If true then the star leak is wrong for the first time ever.
Report squares November 20, 2013 11:17 AM GMT
Michelle McManus wasn't in X Factor so if you're talking the last large female to win any show with a PV, you're looking at Leanne Mitchell.
Report squares November 20, 2013 11:29 AM GMT
The Star leak was after two week's voting iirc and claimed Nicholas had won the vote in week 2 when Sam had her poorest week singing Make You Feel My Love in Trap 1, so perfectly believable.

However, some of the media who just pick up a story and follow on with it reported this as Nicholas winning every week.

Likewise with The Sun story, despite The Sun leaks having a poor record it is certainly believable/possible that Sam could have won all of the early shows bar one.  However, it was unclear from The Sun whether they were going by the previous week or doing a sort of average over a couple of weeks.

Once again, other organisations take the story and embellish it.
Report squares November 20, 2013 11:31 AM GMT
Bear in mind, many winners haven't even topped the vote by now but have just been scraping by with around 8-12% of the vote early doors, some of them only just dodging being in the B2.
Report jack12321 November 20, 2013 11:56 AM GMT
It'll be an interesting shoot-out between the two of them for sure. Nicholas definitely has broader appeal, but Samba captures the MEM's like nothing we've ever seen. If she does manage to take the victory it's clear evidence the MEM's make up the vast majority of the vote. I've always maintained that broadest appeal usually wins, so I'm sticking with Nicholas.

1.6 Samba
2.7 Nick

When we reach the final 2?? Can't see the market letting Samba go that much shorter, unless Nick is awful
Report melv November 20, 2013 2:48 PM GMT
I agree 100% that Nick has a broader appeal than Sam.
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 20, 2013 3:46 PM GMT
Don't think there has been a final yet where the favourite has ended up higher than 1.5 and there hasn't been a favourite beat since Rhydian.  She's the shortest priced favourite at this stage, bar possibly Leona and Rhydian and they both ended up 1.2 to 1.3 I think
Report LendUsAFiver November 20, 2013 5:42 PM GMT
Jermaine was odds on favourite on the final. It wasn't until Wembley when the names were called out which showed overwhelming support for James Arthur. Sam attracts the same mentality to Jermaine.
Report GeorgeBrush November 20, 2013 7:21 PM GMT
Confused  James was odds on for all of the final iirc

1.4 ish as the death, low as 1.3
Report bearcub November 20, 2013 7:43 PM GMT
I'm still trying to work out who Jermaine is Confused

And it wasn't at Wembley
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 20, 2013 9:25 PM GMT
In the final it seems there is always a big ir punt and it usually involves the favourite shortening.  However, in the very first XF Steve Brookstein opened up at 1/4 and ended up at 4/1 against.  The one occasion where that might not have been the case was the year Matt Cardle won
Report GeorgeBrush November 20, 2013 11:10 PM GMT
Cardie shortened on Saturday cb, Bex closed a bit on sunday, but not a lot

Ollie had a similar mini comeback against Joe
Report mach November 20, 2013 11:41 PM GMT
The one D seal of approval

Nicholas McDonald: ‘Meeting One Direction was AMAZING!’
Nicholas McDonald: ‘Meeting One Direction was AMAZING!’
So, things are getting pretty EXCITING at the studios. Now that the Great British Songbook week is over, we’re getting in party mode – because next Saturday and Sunday, we celebrate The X Factor’s 10th Birthday Party. Hurrah!



Here to celebrate will be a whole host of acts, including Olly Murs, JLS – and wait for it – One Direction. (Cue lots of screaming.)



But there’s one person who’s particularly excited about Harry Styles, Liam Payne, Louis Tomlinson, Niall Horan and Zayn Malik being in the building – and that’s our very own Nicholas McDonald, who has found a fan in the lovely Niall AND got to meet the man himself this weekend.



“Niall tweeted me after my performance of Someone Like You and said he wants me to win,” Nicholas tells us. “I couldn’t believe it because I am such a fan of the band. They are just so big, and have done so well.



“I am still shocked Niall even tweeted me. And now I get to meet them – it’s amazing.”



IT IS AMAZING. And we can understand why Nicky might just be a little bit beside himself about the whole thing.



Fancy seeing One Direction’s BIG return to The X Factor stage? Of course you do. Tune in next Sunday at 8pm on ITV then – you won’t regret it!
Report LendUsAFiver November 21, 2013 10:57 AM GMT
One Direction have over 16 million crazy/obsessed twitter followers. It would be a game changer whoever they show support for.
Report LendUsAFiver November 21, 2013 11:07 AM GMT
I'd say they've had their orders to support the RC or Tamera.
Report melv November 21, 2013 4:35 PM GMT
Wanna bet? One D each say they support a different act.
Report melv November 21, 2013 4:40 PM GMT
Wanna nother bet.

R.C will NOT be allow to do this on Saturday.
Report melv November 21, 2013 4:43 PM GMT
OOOOps forgot the link. You won't see anything like this on Saturday not with wand erection fans watching.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_caMxMQTPc

Unless they want to see a serious challenge to the front runners.
Report Dizzy42 November 21, 2013 5:04 PM GMT

Nov 21, 2013 -- 11:07AM, LendUsAFiver wrote:


I'd say they've had their orders to support the RC or Tamera.


Niall Horan tweeted his support for Tamera, RC and Nick at the weekend.

Crucially however, his tweet to Tamera & RC started with their @ name, so would only have been seen by those that follow both accounts.

Whereas his tweet to Nick, included the @ name in the body of the message, so all of Niall's followers would have been able to see it.

Hence the Nick one got 32k retweets, whereas Tam & RC got only 8k retweets each.  The Nick message was also by far the most enthusiastic.

Report melv November 21, 2013 5:17 PM GMT
And this is what my life as come to. Discussing wand erection as a huge influence on the musical tastes of the county. Jimi,Jim and John forgive me.
Report LendUsAFiver November 21, 2013 5:27 PM GMT
Dizzy wins analyser of the week award with that impressive twitter analysis.
Report LendUsAFiver November 21, 2013 5:29 PM GMT
So, it's Nick with One Direction? Nick seems delighted to have 'met' them but there is nothing out there confirming he will be singing with them.
Report squares November 21, 2013 5:51 PM GMT
not singing with them this weekend - probably covering one of their songs.
Report LendUsAFiver November 21, 2013 6:07 PM GMT
bah, rubbish, they should all duet.
Report Cider November 22, 2013 9:02 PM GMT
Interesting XF ad run just before IAC. Louis saying 'you're a world class vocalist' and panning to Nicky. I sense a sea change.
Report jack12321 December 1, 2013 9:46 PM GMT
Survived one of the most brutal executions imaginable, quite a feat Grin

There's life in this borefest yet!
Report Cider December 1, 2013 9:48 PM GMT
WD jack with Nicole first out. Take it that's a sizable win?
Report SteadyPaceDontChase December 1, 2013 9:53 PM GMT
The Scottish public are not stupid they can see NM is being shafted and they simply will vote more.
Report Asparagus Man December 1, 2013 9:54 PM GMT
Looks a cert for Top 2 now after surviving the mammoth effort to get rid this week.
Report jack12321 December 1, 2013 10:17 PM GMT
Thanks Cider, yeah a very nice win - was getting bits on all over the place at 6/1 when Sam was storming ahead yet Sharon was still favourite to be first out. You get any on?
Report Cider December 1, 2013 10:27 PM GMT
I didn't actually but you made me consider the bet. At the time I thought Tammy was still option 1 for them (before forgetting words saga)
Report Fallen Angel December 1, 2013 10:33 PM GMT
desperate for him to get through the final hurdle and then the bet on the win element is covered by the place. Just hope the scottish vote can push the wee man over the line and into the final. He still has a big performance in him
Report jack12321 December 1, 2013 11:11 PM GMT
Have to admit I initially was expecting Tamera to be saved every b2 until going out in 4th on the public vote, so was just whether RC would make the final in my mind as to which mentor would be out first

Likewise FA, got plenty on him to place. May be worth covering some by betting him to go this week if there's a b2.
Report Fallen Angel December 1, 2013 11:14 PM GMT
Yeah cannot believe it is a not a public vote straight into the final.
Report jack12321 December 8, 2013 9:39 PM GMT
Safely through to final Happy There's hope yet! His tears tonight over Luke wouldn't have done any harm either.

Alas regardless of what some think, Luke being in the final to me makes Nick significantly less likely to win Sad the teeny girls do really really like Nick (as shown by impressive twitter figures) but they like Luke more, and they do tend to vote quite obsessively in the final.

Not generally a big believer in vote transference but I think with the bromance going on between the two boys the transfer would have been huge
Report mach December 8, 2013 9:54 PM GMT
Luke 1.4 to be out next, to long imo
Report Fallen Angel December 8, 2013 11:25 PM GMT
Great news that the place element is weighed in. Have taken a couple of the 9/2 and 4/1 for two places. Still have him as a huge green on the win as well. If he can get into the final anything can happen
Report Cider December 14, 2013 10:18 PM GMT
WD Nicky 01 Cool
Report jack12321 December 14, 2013 10:34 PM GMT
Still hope Grin

At the very least EW and SF bets landed

24 hours for the fanatical fans, of which there seem to be many, to multi-vote like mad
Report LendUsAFiver December 14, 2013 10:43 PM GMT
producers sick... He got there! How on earth will they stop those crazy scots now? even a big storm that Simon manufactured won't stop him now! Laugh
Report Cider December 16, 2013 9:58 AM GMT
Would have danced in if not unashamedly nobbled on a weekly basis.

Can't remember where I wrote it but I suggested backing Nicky with Betfred all stakes now returned as a free bet.
Report LendUsAFiver December 16, 2013 8:31 PM GMT
Agree Cider, biggest stitch up ever and he seems to know it judging by his social activity.
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