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The Kitten
20 Sep 13 12:12
Joined:
Date Joined: 09 Oct 06
| Topic/replies: 7,397 | Blogger: The Kitten's blog
...............is my 5 star NAP for SCD.

I expect a price crash in the next hour or so.
Pause Switch to Standard View Sophie Ellis-Bexter
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Report Journeyman December 18, 2013 1:59 PM GMT
Sophie on ITV's Daybreak today. Effective targetting of Susannah's natural demographic?
It's the second time they've had her on in a month.
Report GeorgeBrush December 18, 2013 2:01 PM GMT
They have sophie voodoo dolls on BBC brekkie, nobody watches that council telly channel
Report GeorgeBrush December 18, 2013 2:02 PM GMT
Keep stabbing her in the knee
Report Journeyman December 18, 2013 2:08 PM GMT
All the old biddies that went out and spent three pounds twenty on their Christmas double issue TV Times won't be able to resist the charming posh girl on the sofa that reminds them of their granddaughter.

Then they'll be getting their speed redials ready for Saturday.. Happy
Report GeorgeBrush December 18, 2013 2:31 PM GMT
Not if Len says otherwise Wink
Report The Kitten December 19, 2013 12:09 PM GMT
http://www.unrealitytv.co.uk/strictly-come-dancing/strictly-come-dancing-201...
Report GeorgeBrush December 19, 2013 12:59 PM GMT
Your dodgy links have been the highlight of the series for me TK Mischief
Report five leaves left December 19, 2013 1:02 PM GMT
Why do I never get the full link? Plain
Are you using the old forum TK?
Report George Bailey December 19, 2013 1:25 PM GMT
Put a full stop in front of it I was told. Actually dont need to follow the link as whatever it is it will be good news re Sophie lol
Report RMB © December 19, 2013 1:47 PM GMT
I never listen to anyone on this forum, groupthink and most of ya are monkeys, but I'm blaming my pro SEB book on a barrage of endocrination from The Kitten Laugh Right now she looks a dead duck and her price looks too short. I can see Su holding off Abbey and wouldn't be surprised to see SEB first out on a Natalie ramp and bounce.
Report Journeyman December 19, 2013 1:58 PM GMT
Sophie appeared on My Story this week on CBeebies with her son, getting a lot of positive feedback on social media.

This along with Marie Claire, Daybreak etc creating a campaign momentum that is being reflected in her price moves
Report five leaves left December 19, 2013 2:32 PM GMT
She's certainly being well backed on the HS. 5/2 now in places and top priced 3/1. When she was 9/2 a couple of days ago
Still be matched on here at 5 and above, which is nice
Report Journeyman December 19, 2013 2:36 PM GMT
My feeling is that she has upped the family angle quite specifically to counter the Susannah 'hard working mother' monopoly.
I think Sophie is just as ambitious about winning as Sue but cleverer at showing it.

Example twitter reaction to CBeebies thing

Carla & Bekka ‏@sistersguild 17 Dec
6yo full of 'WOW' at My Story with the son of @SophieEB & Granny Janet. 'Is Sophie really a mummy?'...YES...'But she can dance'....YES!!
Report George Bailey December 19, 2013 2:44 PM GMT
Susannah is a dirty skank who lives in a sh1thole.  No wonder she is leading the vote.
Report attitude adjuster December 19, 2013 3:06 PM GMT
Was going to vote for SEB gb2 but... BlushWink
Report GeorgeBrush December 19, 2013 3:41 PM GMT
Must book a viewing to have a look round Sue's sh1thole
Report Cider December 19, 2013 3:42 PM GMT
Shouldn't be too hard to find, she's been talking out of it for 3 months.
Report SOULDANCER December 19, 2013 5:50 PM GMT
I worry about you lot reading Hello and Marie Claire.
Report GeorgeBrush December 19, 2013 5:55 PM GMT
Stop reading them then Soulie
Report Journeyman December 19, 2013 6:19 PM GMT
I worry about you lot reading Hello and Marie Claire.


Pre-internet habits picked up from being teenagers looking for lingerie adverts
Report Journeyman December 19, 2013 8:16 PM GMT
Worried about this knee injury
Report The Kitten December 19, 2013 9:30 PM GMT
Nothing to worry about. It's old news she's had the injury for some time. It's a minor thing and she didn't even mention it on ITT.
Report George Bailey December 19, 2013 9:36 PM GMT
Still ahead with me. I'll predict a flip flop with Abbey before the final.
Report GeorgeBrush December 19, 2013 9:56 PM GMT
Seems unlikely old chum, they're heading in the other direction Wink
Report five leaves left December 19, 2013 10:04 PM GMT
Until the loony guy gets home from the pub again...
Report George Bailey December 19, 2013 10:07 PM GMT
I have always wondered about the depth of her support.  That said her being top two in the pv seems to confirm what I am seeing. Abbey more marmite but the likers more likely to vote now at the business end? Plenty of love for Big Bird though and she seems to be getting the support of those who hanker for a bit of class ala Kara...I'm not saying she is a Kara though but nobody is this year.
Report GeorgeBrush December 19, 2013 10:10 PM GMT
Any of these can win except Nat

Hence Abbey is my biggest green cos she's the best of the 3
Report George Bailey December 19, 2013 10:14 PM GMT
You are right re leaving any price up and having it matched. Very strange market.
Report GeorgeBrush December 19, 2013 10:16 PM GMT
Leaving some 1.1 Abbey up Wink
Report popking December 19, 2013 10:16 PM GMT
I feel like we have been having the same debate for about 3 years rather than 3 months.

I haven't posted this week as there seems little more to say.

Susanna was my biggest green, and still seems the most likely winner to me given what we know about her support.

Sophie was my 2nd biggest green, but now at the prices is my biggest.  She is the 2nd most likely winner to me, and could go close given the Charleston will be very popular.

Nat is a max red, and remains the least likely winner of the 4.  However, given she is the best dancer and her routines on the night, recovering from a a bounce, she could snatch 3rd.

Then, we have the dilemma that is Abbey, she is also a red for me, although I am considering reducing it a bit.  We know she has been bottom 2, but I do agree she is gaining in popularity, and is likely to be pimped.  But, she has the weakest showdance (on paper) and I really can't see her beating Susanna and Sophie.  My head says she can't win, and I should back her for first out instead.  I just haven't done it yet.  The cautious part of me, says reduce your red, but I haven't done that either.
Report GeorgeBrush December 19, 2013 10:17 PM GMT
It's dangerous pop

Half the audience will vote for who Len tells them to. Fair chance that's Abbey
Report The Kitten December 20, 2013 3:10 AM GMT
.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/strictly-come-dancing-final-sophie-2943908
Report GeorgeBrush December 20, 2013 8:30 AM GMT
Laugh eureka
Report The Kitten December 20, 2013 12:12 PM GMT
http://metro.co.uk/2013/12/20/strictly-come-dancings-sophie-ellis-bextor-i-d...
Report The Kitten December 20, 2013 12:15 PM GMT
.
http://metro.co.uk/2013/12/20/strictly-come-dancing-2013-how-science-tells-us-sophie-ellis-bextor-will-win-the-final-4233173/
Report lookingon December 20, 2013 1:24 PM GMT
Been messing with my book all week and now I have the lovely SEB as my biggest greenHappy
Not much between them all book wise, but SEB best green now and I may even put a few votes in for her.
I'm now even green on Nat but she's my worse result.
Report George Bailey December 20, 2013 2:10 PM GMT
I think I will have my book so it pays for Christmas whoever wins...beans on toast yum yum.

Experience tells me my biggest green and c0ck rarely have a happy ending. Having been just about her biggest supporter even during TK's brief moment of doubt time for the magnifying glass of reality.

My main concern is that she could somehow get lost between the Sue/Kevin popularity and the best dancer perception which I think has her behind Nat/Abbey. Throw in a possible damned by faint praise and she lookstohave a difficult route to victory. Of courseif she gets to dance them she has some great dances up her sleeve for casuals to enjoy. The anti Sue sentiment seems pretty strong at the business end.
Report The Kitten December 20, 2013 3:11 PM GMT
Update on that Metro poll that was started today:-


Sophie Ellis-Bextor  47.34% 

Susanna Reid  20.21% 

Abbey Clancy  20.21% 

Natalie Gumede  12.23% 


It looks like Abbey is splitting the Susanna vote leaving Sophie clear at the top. This is a clean poll as far as I'm aware, brand new, and with one vote per IP address.
Report The Kitten December 20, 2013 3:25 PM GMT
.
http://metro.co.uk/2013/12/20/strictly-come-dancing-2013-how-science-tells-us-sophie-ellis-bextor-will-win-the-final-4233173/
Report George Bailey December 20, 2013 3:26 PM GMT
Yes I have tried to revote after refreshing (the page not me) and failed but I'm sure techies can find a way round it. I think the numbers are very smallish though .25% or .5% = a vote. Better first than last of course.
Report The Kitten December 20, 2013 3:30 PM GMT
Of all the polls I've highlighted this is the most significant. It's close enough to the final to have a real relevance, it was only started this morning so should reflect current opinion and it appears straight. I'm really rather confident for Sophie now!
Report George Bailey December 20, 2013 3:37 PM GMT
She is still my biggest green.... semper fidelis...
Report lookingon December 20, 2013 4:13 PM GMT
George - Go wild & have a mince pie with your beans on toast, it is xmasLaugh
Report George Bailey December 20, 2013 4:35 PM GMT
ok so long as no trans fat...Aldi for me...only the best Wink
Report The Kitten December 20, 2013 6:17 PM GMT
.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/strictly-come-dancing-winner-sophie-2947351
Report kevinglass December 20, 2013 7:28 PM GMT
I think you all miss the point re polls. The people who vote in them probably aren't the ones who actually pick up the phone on the night. They're probably a younger crowd out getting mullered on a Saturday. This Saturday, the last before Xmas it'll be even more true. Your average voter will be under 18 or over 40, and both groups will go for Sus & Kev, not your "pop star" SEB. The under 18's won't even remember her, while most will watch Breakfast telly before School/College.

So Sus & Kev win, probably Abbey next with SEB & Nat out first, cos she used to beat up Tyrone.
Report George Bailey December 20, 2013 8:21 PM GMT
Depressingly book wise that could be on the money
Report Cider December 20, 2013 8:24 PM GMT
'Your average voter will be under 18' Laugh
Report Journeyman December 20, 2013 8:26 PM GMT
I still haven't found a real life Stompin' Sue voter. Have you?

More and more I see her out in a shock third, with Sophie fighting it out with Abbey for the spoils.
Report George Bailey December 20, 2013 8:34 PM GMT
Actually you are right Journey she isas invisible in conversation as she is on the polls..yet still leads the pv...David Attenborough and the Lesser Spotted Sue Fan anyone?

That said a poll of fav pro would be 40%+ for kev fg despite the so called "hunks".
Report The Kitten December 21, 2013 5:50 PM GMT
Good luck everyone. Specially if you're a Sophie backer! Tongue Out
Report George Bailey December 21, 2013 6:06 PM GMT
Abbey has taken over from Sophie on the HG for the first time Shocked
Report TennisMan66 December 21, 2013 6:19 PM GMT
Fairly new here - what's HG George?
Report TennisMan66 December 21, 2013 6:19 PM GMT
Fairly new here - what's HG George?
Report mach December 21, 2013 6:25 PM GMT
HG =  Huge green, it the runner George Bailey's needs to layWinkLaughLaugh
Report timbuctooth December 21, 2013 7:58 PM GMT
It`s the `Holy Grail`, his personal polling system.
Report kevinglass December 21, 2013 8:48 PM GMT
Like I said, pollsters different from show voters....
Report The Kitten December 21, 2013 8:49 PM GMT
Gutted. Sorry folks.
Report timbuctooth December 21, 2013 9:39 PM GMT
Nothing to be sorry about, she`s been great for trading. Don`t have to find the winner, in order to win.
Report squares December 21, 2013 9:40 PM GMT
was gutting not to have the charleston in the final tho, defo left a big hole
Report George Bailey December 21, 2013 9:58 PM GMT

Dec 20, 2013 -- 8:10AM, George Bailey wrote:


I think I will have my book so it pays for Christmas whoever wins...beans on toast yum yum.Experience tells me my biggest green and c0ck rarely have a happy ending. Having been just about her biggest supporter even during TK's brief moment of doubt time for the magnifying glass of reality.My main concern is that she could somehow get lost between the Sue/Kevin popularity and the best dancer perception which I think has her behind Nat/Abbey. Throw in a possible damned by faint praise and she lookstohave a difficult route to victory. Of courseif she gets to dance them she has some great dances up her sleeve for casuals to enjoy. The anti Sue sentiment seems pretty strong at the business end.


Better to see the light late than not at all Wink

Report George Bailey December 21, 2013 9:59 PM GMT

Dec 21, 2013 -- 12:06PM, George Bailey wrote:


Abbey has taken over from Sophie on the HG for the first time


Oh ye of little faith....The Big Mo is all Cool

Report ALDERBROOK_501 December 21, 2013 10:00 PM GMT
SOPHIE = PURE CLASS
Report Journeyman December 22, 2013 1:32 AM GMT
Considering that Sophie clearly had the consistently voter share to avoid the dance offs week after week even when the judges were leaving her as low on the table as they could get away with, the question has to be where did that loyal fanbase go on the final night!?

It's hard to believe she could finish below Natalie after all that!

Ah well... In the absence of a SEB victory, Abbey was probably the right winner having made that all important journey.
Report George Bailey December 22, 2013 1:38 AM GMT
You have answered your own question..votes because she was low on the table so needed them plus perceived undermarking. The final is a completely different dynamic. You could ask how could two dancers who finished in B2 MAYBE came first and second in the final?
Report five leaves left December 22, 2013 11:49 AM GMT
Her dances were good in the final. Her showdance certainly no Snowden type fiaco, but she didn't have a wow dance til like the others, til her Charleston
Report Cider December 22, 2013 12:47 PM GMT
Sophie's SD was disappointing, but I was worried about it. She's not a 'natural' party girl, and can be quite gangly and awkward looking, so it was a rather lumpy affair with not a lot happening in between the lifts. Charleston not being judges pick was clearly a major disadvantage.
Report five leaves left December 22, 2013 12:57 PM GMT
I enjoyed her SD and it wasn't the disaster it could have been, but probably the weakest of the 3.
You do wonder how much say they actually have when it comes to the theme of their SD's, as an old Hollywood number would have suited her far more
Report five leaves left December 22, 2013 12:59 PM GMT
But Nat bagged that one and TBF did it brilliantly
Report Cider December 22, 2013 1:04 PM GMT
I suspect that the theme is given to them. Len said there's no rules, you can pick your own music etc. which is probably true. I very much doubt the pro is left to get on with it by themselves.
Report five leaves left December 22, 2013 1:07 PM GMT
You can do anything within the confines of the theme and song we give you Wink
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 22, 2013 1:30 PM GMT
Said for a few weeks she's an absolutely lovely girl but as Cider pointed out can look a bit 'gangly' at times so just not good enough to win it.  Natalie and Abbey both at least a grade above her so 4th was fair IMO.

What a wonderful show though.
Report five leaves left December 22, 2013 1:34 PM GMT
3rd a fair result Wink, as we'd have got to see the Charleston, but I agree it was a great show Lou and a very worthy winner
Report differentdrum December 22, 2013 1:51 PM GMT
This is mainly directed at The Kitten. No real need for any apologies as it wasn't your fault that you ended up supporting someone who basically couldn't care less where she finished in the final. On the night you had three competitors and Sophie was just making the numbers up.

During the competition Sophie went through a thoroughly disinterested phase before bucking her ideas up to reach the final. As far as I am concerned that was the limit of her aspirations. I can't see any other explanation for a showdance which was only ever going to highlight her faults. A suidance dance would have been a more appropriate description. She scored 35 purely because it was a final and it would have been too embarassing to give 7's. It was so bad the judges couldn't bring themselves to actually comment specifically about the dance and it was probably fortunate we didn't hear anything from Craig. From the moment that dance was put together she would have known she was pretty much a certainty to go out first. 

Unfortunately, Sophie backers were left with the double whammy of money down the drain and not even seeing the Charleston again.

At least Susanna didn't win.
Report differentdrum December 22, 2013 1:53 PM GMT
'suicide dance'
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 22, 2013 1:57 PM GMT
For me still Natalie the stand out dancer but Abbey was only a fraction behind her.  Both very good dancers.

So glad Susannah never won it.  Good dancer, nice lady but so over the top with her smiley face and over gushing at everything.  Liked her before but gone off her a bit.
Report Journeyman December 22, 2013 2:15 PM GMT
Lou your focus throughout the series had been that people weren't attaching enough importance to who was/were the best dancers and results have backed that up, so you deserve credit I think.

As for anyone directing approbrium at The Kitten , it's easy enough the day after a relatively unexpected result to reverse engineer reasons why things happened. (Aftertiming and noisy greenathons are the two worst things about the Specials forum and always have been). The reality is nobody 'knows' how things ended up the way they did. Kitten's theory about Abbey (that being a 'scoucer' (sic) would harm her vote) was common sense and was backed up by her dance off week, but she seems to have won the public over by simply getting to be really good and incredibly consistent.

On the previous page I said I thought Abbey would be the one of the four who had a west end career, and that is even more likely now.
But they will all do well out of this. It was a very competitive final four, and in four parallel universes they might all have won.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 22, 2013 2:36 PM GMT
Journeyman

Thanks for your kind words.  I get very very few on here so it's a nice change!

Cheers
Report Hamsterdam December 22, 2013 7:23 PM GMT
I've analysed what happened with Sophie and why she finished last in the final. Here is my conclusion:-

She couldn't dance.
She wasn't popular. 

HTH.
Report George Bailey December 22, 2013 7:33 PM GMT
For Sophie read Susannah Laugh
Report Hamsterdam December 22, 2013 7:37 PM GMT
....and omit "wasn't popular". Wink
Report George Bailey December 22, 2013 7:40 PM GMT
...she finished first or second in the pv at least one week...not bad for ms unpopular Wink
Report Hamsterdam December 22, 2013 7:43 PM GMT
Confirmed as half the vote as Susanna in both weeks. If she couldn't match up to "marmite" in a PV there was never any hope I'm afraid.
Report The Kitten December 22, 2013 7:43 PM GMT
Hammy I lost a five figure sum. No need to rub it in mate.
Report George Bailey December 22, 2013 7:45 PM GMT
so did Hammy...kind of Sad
Report George Bailey December 22, 2013 7:47 PM GMT
marmite ratings

sue 25v75
sophie 65v35

motivation to vote and sophie up against 2 perceived better dancers explains the voting last night
Report Hamsterdam December 22, 2013 7:50 PM GMT
TK I feel your pain. At least if SEB went odds on your bets would have been vindicated somewhat. Sadly, she didn't Sad

motivation to vote and sophie up against 2 perceived better dancers explains the voting last night


Roughly translated:-

She couldn't dance.
She wasn't popular.
Report George Bailey December 22, 2013 8:05 PM GMT
Like Sue...repeat ad nauseum

Most thought Sue was the worst dancer so you put all your eggs in the popularity basket in a dancing contest?
Report GeorgeBrush December 22, 2013 8:09 PM GMT

Dec 22, 2013 -- 1:43PM, The Kitten wrote:


Hammy I lost a five figure sum. No need to rub it in mate.


Shocked

Report George Bailey December 22, 2013 8:13 PM GMT
Lost or failed to win?
Report GeorgeBrush December 22, 2013 8:20 PM GMT
Yes, surely you didn't lose on this tk, you seemed to play the fluctuations well?
Report The Kitten December 22, 2013 8:31 PM GMT
I was doing OK but turned it into an all in punt right at the death. It hurts bad.
Report Hamsterdam December 22, 2013 8:34 PM GMT
ouch Sad
Report George Bailey December 22, 2013 8:34 PM GMT
I posted the game was basically up on this thread Sad
Report five leaves left December 22, 2013 9:12 PM GMT
Sorry to hear you took a hit Kitten Sad
Report johnnyrant December 23, 2013 1:58 PM GMT
Sorry to hear about your loss, TK.
Report bearcub December 23, 2013 2:03 PM GMT
This place is turning into Sofabet Cry
Report lookingon December 23, 2013 3:26 PM GMT
Agree....Sorry you didn't win TK and anybody else who lostSad.
Report George Bailey December 23, 2013 4:15 PM GMT
Good shout out for Abbey lookingon before the off...iirc
Report lookingon December 24, 2013 2:21 AM GMT
Thanks GeorgeHappy
I was really pleased she won as she had progressed the most and she seems like a really nice girl.
Book wise it didn't really matter who won as I had them all pretty level.
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