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five leaves left
28 Aug 13 08:57
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Date Joined: 24 Dec 05
| Topic/replies: 113,902 | Blogger: five leaves left's blog
This is how it's done GB
Pause Switch to Standard View ** The Official Strictly 2013 Thead **
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Report downandout December 21, 2013 1:08 AM GMT
Looks a cracking bet to me at current price now. Already on Susanna with abbey and Sophie covered, but this makes her an even stronger bet to me. Really think it's huge value.
Report five leaves left December 21, 2013 1:11 AM GMT
Let's hope she fooks up her QS againWink We could have a nice drift
Report GeorgeBrush December 21, 2013 1:13 AM GMT
I'm hoping to see 1.5 when everyone sees the paper tomorrow, then it's lay lay lay until near result time Grin
Report five leaves left December 21, 2013 1:15 AM GMT
Strange that the Mirror have a voting leak. Have they ever had one before?
Report GeorgeBrush December 21, 2013 1:15 AM GMT
Not that I recall
Report five leaves left December 21, 2013 1:18 AM GMT
38% when she really neaded the vote and a similar % last week, still doesn't mean it's all over
Report mach December 21, 2013 1:18 AM GMT
possibly a regurgitation of the previous leak, with no results released to prove them wrong
Report five leaves left December 21, 2013 1:20 AM GMT
True Mach. That can basically say what they want knowing that they'll never be proved wrong
Report five leaves left December 21, 2013 1:20 AM GMT
They*
Report five leaves left December 21, 2013 1:22 AM GMT
I think the Sunday People had one claiming John Sergeant was smashing the vote.
Report downandout December 21, 2013 1:28 AM GMT
You can never say these things are all over. She still has to actually dance for a start! Sounds pretty plausible though. And there's no evidence at all that they will heavily push someone else and deramp her, which they effectively did do to matt baker. Plus in his semi when he'd polled 50%, he'd cried and scored a huge, potentially one-off sympathy vote. She is hugely favoured by all factors this year - an all-female final with limited variation, 3 good opposition dancers and no 2-person finale. I do think she is much more of a Hollins than a Matt Baker.
Report downandout December 21, 2013 1:33 AM GMT
Clearly the leak can be rubbish. Though they're very clear regarding it being from the semi vote. Strictly does seem to be fairly leaky when it comes to people in the press. Every year, different organisations seem to pick info up.
Report five leaves left December 21, 2013 1:36 AM GMT
I've only known the Star have a leak, apart from that People one that could have been made up.
Anyway it shows SEB closed last week, if true Wink
Report five leaves left December 21, 2013 1:38 AM GMT
I still think she's a great fit with the audience and has more chance of causing a shock than Abbey
Report Hamsterdam December 21, 2013 1:42 AM GMT
The online winner polls have been very inconsistent every one i look at shows a different winner which for me says it all about Susanna's competitors , they are all a bit meh and no one really cares for them.

She has no competition.
Report timbuctooth December 21, 2013 2:01 AM GMT
The Mirror doesn`t have enough credible form for leaks as to justify wholesale panic, possibly undoing three months good work. There does, however, seem to be something of a groundswell for Su, (at least on here!) 
I`ve tweaked Su a little bit greener, in anticipation of probably laying off, shorter, pre-show. Still haven`t a clue who`ll win, just playing the prices.
Report The Kitten December 21, 2013 2:10 AM GMT
I don't believe this leak one jot for a number of reasons, none of which I can disclose on here. Susanna may win she may not. But there is still plenty of money opposing her if you look at the market.
Report BenGrimm December 21, 2013 7:32 AM GMT
Radio 5 announced Susannah has topped every weekly vote since the start!I'm on!
Report BenGrimm December 21, 2013 7:32 AM GMT
Radio 5 announced Susannah has topped every weekly vote since the start!I'm on!
Report The Kitten December 21, 2013 8:47 AM GMT
If this info was correct she'd be about 1.5. She's not. I feel this is a massive scam. Someone is happily laying Susanna for as much as they can.
Report The Kitten December 21, 2013 8:56 AM GMT
In fact, Susanna is drifting. You've all been had!
Report Cider December 21, 2013 9:11 AM GMT
100-(38+15+15)=32
Report Cider December 21, 2013 9:16 AM GMT
Those figures mean Patrick was second in the vote. Highly unlikely.
Report Cider December 21, 2013 9:20 AM GMT
^scrap that, just read they were 1/4 percentages
Report The Kitten December 21, 2013 9:26 AM GMT
£500 up looking to back Sophie now. So obvious what's being done here!
Report The Kitten December 21, 2013 10:30 AM GMT
.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/strictly-come-dancing-final-poll-2933203
.
http://metro.co.uk/2013/12/20/strictly-come-dancing-2013-how-science-tells-us-sophie-ellis-bextor-will-win-the-final-4233173/

This market is mad.
Report Hamsterdam December 21, 2013 12:34 PM GMT
Whichever way you look at it, evens is foooking massive here.
Report BenGrimm December 21, 2013 12:58 PM GMT
be sensible when reading these posts;fact;SEB although my fav has drifted from 5 to 5.6 this morning. Take the hint.
Report BenGrimm December 21, 2013 1:19 PM GMT
SR 1.93
Report alfie46 December 21, 2013 1:28 PM GMT
Just the EVENS  left at PP if you can get on
Report George Bailey December 21, 2013 1:37 PM GMT
Yeah for 10p Laugh

Looks like BBC intend to make it a coronation.
Report lookingon December 21, 2013 1:41 PM GMT
I asked about 7 people today when I was out shopping, who they wanted to win and was a little shocked that 5 out of 7 said Sue. These are people I don't know! Living not too far from Abbeys home town, I thought people would be rooting for her.
I don't really care now, who wins as I have them all pretty much level but all the signs are pointing at a Sue & Kevin from Grimsby win.
Report lookingon December 21, 2013 1:45 PM GMT
Be funny if Nat ended up winningLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report lookingon December 21, 2013 1:49 PM GMT
Oh yeah, something I've found interesting when people say whom they want to win, it's Sophie, Abbey but mostly Sue & KEVIN, all singular with the exception of Sue. It's obvious that it's Kevin picking up most of Sue's votes IMO.
Report lookingon December 21, 2013 2:00 PM GMT
Changed my book a little more, now have Sue a little more green than the restCoolThanks to Mr PP. Sure I'll be changing it again before the finalLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report lookingon December 21, 2013 2:11 PM GMT
OMG ......I am reading through my mail and what do I open? only a xmas card from a friend I've not heard from in over 10 years....Signed Sue & KevinSurprisedSurprised. This is getting spooky. Is it a sign? Should I get in touch with Ocean finance?Shocked
Report BenGrimm December 21, 2013 2:13 PM GMT
definitely some resistance now to Sue and support Abbey
Report The Kitten December 21, 2013 2:15 PM GMT
Watch out for the real money on Sophie in the next couple of hours............
Report timbuctooth December 21, 2013 2:37 PM GMT
A month(?( ago, a previously unreliable source suggests Susanna doubled the vote of her nearest rival, in one particular week.

Yesterday, a previously unreliable source suggests Susanna is uncatchable.


Nobody is saying these leaks are incorrect, and I don`t think anyone should be saying `they are 100% correct`. We just don`t know. Such leaks do, though, seem to heavily contradict almost all other available evidence.
This leaves me with two thoughts: firstly, if INcorrect, should we max-red-Natalies be doing something about having the very best dancer as our only red? If she reaches the last three, the cat will well and truly be amongst the pigeons! If we ignore the leaks, for a moment, current prices would be massive


Secondly, that those backing Susanna at 1.8x are, in effect backing 1.8x not that she wins, but that the leaks are correct.
I`m not sure that the sources of these leaks have enough credibility in these matters to justify putting my money where their mouth is at the price. Clearly, a number of forumites, and the market, have complete faith in these leaks. I remain unconvinced, and will have her as my smallest green at the start of the final. During which, all can change of course, especially at the first hint of a ` coronation`!
Report GeorgeBrush December 21, 2013 2:40 PM GMT

Dec 21, 2013 -- 8:15AM, The Kitten wrote:


Watch out for the real money on Sophie in the next couple of hours............


The deadline for this keeps getting extended Mischief

Report downandout December 21, 2013 2:47 PM GMT
Wasn't the first leak in the Star?... how could that be considered a previously unreliable source Tim? I've seen this info from 5 entirely different places now. At what point does it become pretty likely to be correct?
Report popking December 21, 2013 2:48 PM GMT
I'm with you to some extent Tim.

I still think Susanna is the most likely winner, but Sophie is now a much bigger green, just because of the huge disparity in current prices, which are not reflective of their relevant chances to me, leak or no leak.
Report GeorgeBrush December 21, 2013 2:55 PM GMT
Just layed some 1.81
Report lookingon December 21, 2013 3:05 PM GMT
Backed her last night at 6/5 and today at evens and laid at 1.8.Cool
Report George Bailey December 21, 2013 3:06 PM GMT

Dec 21, 2013 -- 8:55AM, GeorgeBrush wrote:


Just layed some 1.81


You don't think she will trade lower GB?

Report lookingon December 21, 2013 3:07 PM GMT
Any thing can happen.....In specials and that is why I even have Nat green now, silly not to at her current price!
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 21, 2013 3:08 PM GMT
Im not 99.9% those leaks are correct Im 100%Wink Well certainly the Star one is.
Report lookingon December 21, 2013 3:14 PM GMT
The thing with the star leak, isn't it when Sue was bottom of the leader board? That would make her fans vote and the voting might have been really low no's.
Tonight more people will vote, even I might vote for the first time this series.
If the Star had more weeks to give the results for than one, I'd be backing  her all day!
Report downandout December 21, 2013 3:14 PM GMT
What price would u have Susanna at now JOT, if u don't mind me asking?
Report timbuctooth December 21, 2013 3:19 PM GMT
Sorry, memory messing me around again, leading me to embarrass myself. Again. The first leak WAS from the Star.
While their record on XF is 100% beyond doubt, they don`t have so much `form` on SCD, and I think I allowed that subtle difference to somehow convince myself that perhaps it didn`t carry quite as much weight as an XF leak and, from there, my head twisting it to `it`s not from the Star, at all`. Idiot!
Report GeorgeBrush December 21, 2013 3:21 PM GMT
They have plenty of good form on scd as those backing Mincey and laying dvo will attest
Report squares December 21, 2013 3:24 PM GMT
but other form which hasn't held up which should be considered?
Report timbuctooth December 21, 2013 3:27 PM GMT
I know there have been the odd SCD leaks, but am I wrong to think that, over the years, there have been far fewer Star leaks on SCD than on XF?
Report TheMadness December 21, 2013 3:28 PM GMT
She's clearly the star of the show. The one all the momentum is behind, all the stories... If it was a head to head with another celeb, she might end up losing, but one of the other couples is probably going to have to do something to really stand out in the final to catch her. I can't stand her, but I'm not overly keen on SEB either. Abbey's the nicest to me.
Report popking December 21, 2013 3:29 PM GMT
Showdances excepted, the only ones with a true stand out dance are Susanna and Sophie.
Report squares December 21, 2013 3:29 PM GMT
totally timbo, very few leaks on SCD in comparison to XF, although leaks in general have decreased over the past few years.
Report lookingon December 21, 2013 3:29 PM GMT
I agree about Abbey being the nicest and most sincere IMO.
Report squares December 21, 2013 3:31 PM GMT
the only other leaks I recall apart from those Brushy mentioned were for Matt and Russell.

I believe they were correct at the time but obv things can change very quickly.
Report lookingon December 21, 2013 3:31 PM GMT
Abbeys partner is also very easy on the eyeLove
Report popking December 21, 2013 3:32 PM GMT
There was one about Austin and Tom jostling at the top in their year, but this was evident from Lisa and Rachel's poor polling.
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 21, 2013 3:32 PM GMT
Im a backer at evens, can see the argument for a drift tonight but I doubt there will be many casuals involved, so it would be minor. The argument that she isnt a proficient enough dancer doesnt hold, she will be close enough. The polls posted on here have been garbage when compared to the voting figs. From what I see lookingon has it right Susanna on her own would go close with her vote, Kevon from Grimsby adds a whole new demographic to her vote. The casuals I canvass have her about 50%, thats about where I would be.
Signed the man who laid Laila for elimination at 25/1 and also laid Rough Copy for eliminationCryCry
2/5ish would be my price to lay 5/1 Abbey 10/1 Sophie 50/1 Nat
Report squares December 21, 2013 3:33 PM GMT
and Abbey might give everyone an eyefull in the SD by the looks of things
Report The Kitten December 21, 2013 3:33 PM GMT
Can anyone confirm Sophie appears to have pimp slot?
Report timbuctooth December 21, 2013 3:35 PM GMT
Thanks, squares, nolongerconfused.com
Report squares December 21, 2013 3:35 PM GMT
could have if the BBC order of posting pics from DR is correct.
Report The Kitten December 21, 2013 3:36 PM GMT
Excellent!
Report lookingon December 21, 2013 3:37 PM GMT
The other card the judges can use tonight which I don't think has been used yet with Sue, is her age. She's a good 10 yrs older than the rest of them.
Report squares December 21, 2013 3:38 PM GMT
Sophie's mid 30s
Report lookingon December 21, 2013 3:39 PM GMT
Len's face on ITT last night when speaking about Sue spoke a 1000 words.
Report lookingon December 21, 2013 3:40 PM GMT
Isn't Sue about 44? Big difference in such a physical show.
Report squares December 21, 2013 3:42 PM GMT
looks like she just turned 43.

Been doing marathons and associated training for years so probably a lot more stamina than the other three.
Report lookingon December 21, 2013 3:43 PM GMT
I think the only one who will be sad it's the final out of the 4 of them is Abbey as I think she's really fallen for her partner, the way she looks at himLove
Report lookingon December 21, 2013 3:44 PM GMT
SEB looks a lot younger than what she is.
Report five leaves left December 21, 2013 3:45 PM GMT
Order from pics.
Su
Abbey
Nat
SEB
Report lookingon December 21, 2013 3:46 PM GMT
I see 3 of them as girls and one a woman, which can only benefit Sue.
Report lookingon December 21, 2013 3:49 PM GMT
If I wasn't  betting on this I'd want Abbey to win, Sophie 2nd, Sue 3rd and Nat last. But I'll do my book for the final timeLaughin an hour and I'll be rooting for my biggest greenLaugh
Report The Kitten December 21, 2013 3:52 PM GMT
And the long awaited Su drift arrives.
Report downandout December 21, 2013 4:28 PM GMT
Is the pimp slot a gd thing tonight? I presume someone gets binned at the end of the first show? Or is it the beginning of the second? If it's end of the first, last slot is surely the worst, thinking about it?
Report The Kitten December 21, 2013 4:29 PM GMT
Kicked out start of 2nd show
Report popking December 21, 2013 4:30 PM GMT
Pimp slot a definite plus, elim will be at start of show 2.
Report downandout December 21, 2013 4:42 PM GMT
Ah ok, def a gd thing for SEB then, assuming that's the order. Shld be a leveller, tho I struggle to see it doin nat that much gd.
Report TheMadness December 21, 2013 4:52 PM GMT
Why do lines open though?
Report The Kitten December 21, 2013 4:53 PM GMT
So people can vote
Report Hamsterdam December 21, 2013 4:59 PM GMT
It's a coronation, nothing else. 5 figure green here. Cool
Report TheMadness December 21, 2013 5:00 PM GMT
When, I should say
Report Hamsterdam December 21, 2013 5:02 PM GMT
And yes ITT said a lot....just an air about the show that had her has winner...and tears during showdance from onlookers.
Report The Kitten December 21, 2013 5:25 PM GMT
.
http://metro.co.uk/2013/12/20/strictly-come-dancing-2013-how-science-tells-us-sophie-ellis-bextor-will-win-the-final-4233173/

That poll that only started Friday morning - Sophie still clear leader. Big lays going up opposing Su now.
Report judorick December 21, 2013 10:39 PM GMT
no moves 28 Sep 13 16:52 Joined: 24 Feb 04 | Topic/replies: 1,867 | Blogger: no moves's blog
I say this every year but might as well say it again never underestimate the power of being Gorgeous on this show.

best looking guy won it in 2013 (the gymnast)
2012.....the bloke from that pop group (he was surely the best looking guy that year
2011.....the gorgeous looking girl from Eastenders
2010.....the sports reporter had a partner whose tits could hardly be contained by her dress
Alicia Dixon won it and she was absolutely stunning
Mark Ramprekash had the ladies swoooning the year he won it
Gough....danced with the best looking female in his year.

No man has won it over the age of forty and no women has won it over the age of 32 (the thirty-two-year old was in the very first series, since then every female winner has been in her twenties)


great post!
Report George Bailey December 21, 2013 10:55 PM GMT
Women vote for good looking women? How come t1t birds don't p1ss every BB/CBB/IAC?
Report RMB © December 22, 2013 12:20 AM GMT

Dec 19, 2013 -- 7:40AM, RMB © wrote:


She looks the value to me timbo. I've been backing her quite relentlessly, a horrible SEB Abbey book right now, needed that large bet at Su around 3.0 but guess I missed the fun last night


LoveLoveLove

Report five leaves left December 22, 2013 12:40 AM GMT
There was no need to panic RMB Grin
Report George Bailey December 22, 2013 1:34 AM GMT
From the official site the fecking arrogant scumbags

More than six million votes were cast in the final.

However, the BBC said it would not disclose the breakdown of the votes, meaning the second and third-placed contestants will not be revealed.
Report Wesdag December 22, 2013 1:51 AM GMT
Really can't understand the secrecy from our public service broadcaster in not revealing the voting figures for the whole series a la x factor.
Report George Bailey December 22, 2013 2:12 AM GMT
No its fecking disgraceful but we can all do something.  I have tried before under a FOI complaint but they weaseled out of it. I have just sent this formal complaint online. Easy to do and the more who do the better. Can I ask that we all send one?

https://ssl.bbc.co.uk/complaints/forms/?reset=#anchor


The BBC loses a lot of credibility and damages its reputation for openess by refusing to release the voting figures for Strictly Come Dancing. The excuse that you don;t have to because of a clause in the FOI Act is a poor one. What happened to transparency?

The BBC is inconsistent in that it DOES release the Sports Personailty of the Year results. Why for one and not for the other?

ITV give the full series results for X Factor and I'm A Celebrity.  Why is the license fee funded BBC less open than a private commercial business?

You encourage people to vote then don't tell them the results other than who has won. Why? What harm can be done releasing the results AFTER the event? What harm has been done to X Factor or IAC by doing this?

I believe the decision not to release the figures is untenable and does the BBC a lot of damage to its reputation.  Just read the comments in various forums.

Therefore in your response could you let me know not only why the results aren't published but also whose decision it is and who could change the policy?

Thank you
Report George Bailey December 22, 2013 8:43 AM GMT
I'm trying to get a head of steam behind this. Slight change to link to make it even easier to mske a complsint.  Can one of you DS lot start a thread on there? Don't get mad get even.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/complaints/complain-online/
Report Hamsterdam December 22, 2013 9:48 AM GMT
To not release the voting fifures is arrogant enough, but to not reveal 2nd/3rd place is just plain wrong and insulting.

Mind you, this is a cooperation that gave haven to the likes of Jimmy Saville so we shouldn't be surprised.
Report George Bailey December 22, 2013 9:49 AM GMT
Don't get mad get even. We ain't gonna take it Angry
Report five leaves left December 22, 2013 12:30 PM GMT
#strictly peaked with 12.6m viewers last night (an average of 11.5m.)

Not sure if this was another winner for those who like to play the viewer markets. I know cider loves them Happy
Report Cider December 22, 2013 12:50 PM GMT
n1 thanks yes bets landed again, under 13.5m was the call plus beating xf peak in h2h Happy
Report five leaves left December 22, 2013 12:52 PM GMT
n1 cider. I know you love to play these markets and usually come out on top
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