~~~ BGT Semi 3 ~~~

I'm down about 2k, really doing terribly. Mainly though cos Betfair is now the only place I can bet and have no options once I'm involved in something which can often be wrong.

Second guessing the prods is the biggest slice of the game oc. The market appears to have the insight this year of exactly who is being supported.

The producers don't always get what they want I prefer the long-term game of hoping they don't.

I'm still not over the way he treated Lucie Jones

Cider 30 May 13 22:34 
... The market appears to have the insight this year of exactly who is being supported.

Spot on. The problem for those of us not `in the know` is that aome prices become such glaringly obvious value that they are irresistible. To me, at least.

FB
Lumanites “about an hour ago” 18,111 likes
Pre Skool “2 hours ago” 20,410 likes

I’d have expected Lumanites to have well overtaken PS by now. Suggests there was no oldie PS vote hidden from FB.

But actually to answer myself - I should give it another hour. Too impatient.

May 30, 2013 -- 10:34PM, Cider wrote:

Second guessing the prods is the biggest slice of the game oc. The market appears to have the insight this year of exactly who is being supported.The producers don't always get what they want I prefer the long-term game of hoping they don't.

Always been the case unfortunately just a lot more transparent now.

I have sour grapes because I fancied the 3 show winners pre show but expected bigger prices on all of them.  Richard and Adam were up against the outright second faves, yet were strong semi favourites.  Jack was 20/1 ante post and i'd earmarked him as a semi winner but when it came to his semi he was odds on from the start.  Luminites were often trading at higher o/r prices than Robbie or Rosie, yet they were best priced 11/8 for the semi.

The positive is I have a good o/r book I suppose

People here moaning about manipulation - stop looking for excuses and pull yourselves together :)

Knowing about manipulation gives us an edge.

the other negative is Bf are going to get 42% of it

Leanne on Voice would be a prime example. Obvious she was not wanted but still took my chances. The Beeb are not as skilled in the dark art, tbf.

I think I'd win more without manipulation Henry

Jai the obvious one on this. Plus Kris Allen on AI

We'd all make a shed load more without manipulation and without insider money. Fact is, it's all there, and we only catch on at the last minute. The Voice is great as we are all twiddling our thumbs on a level playing field.

When insider money exits that's a problem. I wasn't attracted by the Denmark price but to an insider who knew the semi results their price was value.

Someone knew that BOV was going to get stiffed. And Robbie tonight.

It was a fair guess to say Robbie was going to get stiffed. I was very red on him to qualify.

I don`t think any of us are `moaning`, Henry. We`re all well aware of the dangers inherent in trying to second-guess TPTB. And, as you say, most of us are good enough, most of the time, to make it profitable.
My musings on here are more of the `oh, hit the crossbar, if only...` type. Frustration being vented at the closeness of some decent wins, after having built a decent pre-show book. Certainly not expecting all the `rubs of the green` to go my way, but the last couple of  days seem to have seen all the `rubs` go against me, and so it would appear, as have quite a few others on here. J and C being the best example.
Maybe it`s because we are normally quite good at the second-guessing that it hurts more when we get it wrong!

Leon, Michelle McMoose, David Sneddon

Basically anyone Scottish

In years gone by BGT was a good beating heat, this year it is a pile of ****.

Not a single win all week, everything I touch turns to ****.

Saying that, I should have had preskool at 3.1 tonight.

Aaron was my favourite

not one Scottish act in the final 45 this year, apart from honorary Scot McKnasty

I've just switched on ITV2+1 to see BGMT. Missed the first 15 mins. Anything interesting in it, if anybody saw it?

Aaron was excellent. I loved his victory. I still hate that forum-favourite who short-changes blind people. Alex?

I'm hoping they give a clue to the wildcard.

Yep, Alex. Got every task going for six weeks

Aaron?

Alex was my favourite Tim. Or the one I disliked the least. Not sure she was the forum favourite. Plenty of Aaron fans on here.

BB Clyde. Their most obnoxious winner.

To answer your question Henry. Just Cowell ramping Luminites some more

thanks figgy. i'm now watching the guests ramping them.

Who was the Welsh girl, Rachel Rice? Dave was fuming

Rachel

Who is Dave?

Davina

fll, I beg to differ. She was such a forum favourite that I kept quite about ny (platonic) love for Aaron throughout the whole series. Anyone who had the temerity to suggest he might not quite be the devil incarnate was roundly boo`ed and called names!

oh didn't watch it last year Henry.  Was he Scottish?

english

Oh right cider. Yes, she couldn't stand Rachel. Bex was her favourite HM that year

Not Scottish, clyde. A southern softie. Very soft. Sat and cried under the stairs at times and through a tantrum when someone touched his cup cake

i thought cider was referring to the classic "i've only got a 32" waist" dave, but he was in the following BB. came 3rd.

Nearly came 2nd

Alex was most definitely a forum favourite. Only a couple of us were making the case for Aaron when the prods were trying their hardest. Only when a news bulletin came through there was a change of heart

threw even*

We've got 2 acts from Hungary this year and one from Belgium, at least 2 from Wales, at least 2 from Ireland.  None from Scotland!!

It is allowed to hate Cowell's dark arts, henry, & still make a great profit out of the Syco shows. That's what I do. Luminites are as average as average can be as a musical act. Syco just spews out any old sh*t on these shows, hypes them as the greatest thing since sliced bread and viewers are usually sheep-like enough to believe the hype, until the next Syco-hyped act comes along, & the one after that… and repeat ad nauseam for as long as these Syco shows are in existence.

Ckydebank
Aaron was stitched up at every opportunity by TPTB. So much so that he became aware of it, even while still being in the house, and openly asked, on many occasions, `why are they doing this to me?` The most mis-interpreted HM ever, and a thoroughly deserving winner. Possibly my most personally pleasing winner in 8 years of RTV betting.

There were plenty of Aaron fans on here cider.
TK called him the winner the 1st night.
The market preferred Alex because we'd never seen a such marmite character win BB before. Or I hadn't. I didn't watch when Nadia won

I was wondering whether Kelly Fox was Scottish

I never said a word against hate JR. And as for the Lumanites I've just been laying the duck out of them, rather pleased with the drift.

You sound like a DS member Tim

iirc it was bex, tim and myself. I'm writing about three or four weeks from the finish. Aaron didn't come into my considerations for the first few weeks. It was a bit like when it was a couple of us with Lena vs the world. I appreciate things can change very quickly. But Alex was circa 1.7 when most of the forum had her home and hosed.

Checking out anyway, some of us have work in the morning!! GN

f'ing forum. doesn't show my posts. bet they now all come at once

I thought aa and HF liked him too..and maybe others.
I never had Alex home and hosed. I just couldn't stand Aaron and his sulking. But I didn't really like any of them that year.

another weak night tomorrow. saturday is the blockbuster

BGT is small fry for me, henry - not even placed a bet yet on the Outright market

i hadn't touched o/r either. until tonight.

I don't blame you jr. The auditions are dreadful to watch. Tho I quite enjoy the live shows.

i wouldn't watch it normally but as i "have to" i quite like the auditions. not the sob story nonsense but seeing the great british eccentrics.

I look back on that BB as my `coming of age` in the RTV world. All my instincts kept shouting Aaron! Aaron!, as did all the polls. The strength of feeling on here was so pro-Alex and even more anybody-but-Aaron, though, that I thought I had it all wrong. Since then I feel my own instincts are worth trusting, (not always, obviously, but enough of the time) which I didn`t have enough self-confidence to trust before.

myself and army were cheering home aaron from six weeks out

aaron was an odd one. it was the only time a total b'stard won and it was due to the fb block votes (only on that bb) multi-voting ds harridans.

See how,years later, Aaron still has us at each other`s throats!

I don't remember it like that Tim.
It seemed to me if anything there were more fans of Aaron, than those of us who were against him.
It might have felt like there was a lot of anti aaron feeling, as I tend to post a fair amount

Ah Aaron, remember now!!  That wasnt last year but the year before.  I backed him

had him in a double with Cavendish aswell

I had him level with Alex in the end iirc.
The same was the case with Cardle who I couldn't stand. I had equal green with Bex. Maybe Bex slightly bigger.

Didnt go to a cash point for around 6 months from the end of 2011 to about The Olympics.

Could it be that the strength of feeling on both sides left the other side feeling in a very small minority? It felt like there were just three or four of us, but seven or eight names have akready been put forward as Aaron supporters. As fll says, maybe his side were just more vociferous.

BF don't pay in cash Clyde

I lost money on Aaron and was as usual very vociferous in my error.

Even fonder memories of when it was Aaron and Jay? in the final two, and Aaron was something like 2.2!!! He had lead every poll, with the northern freezer monkey regularly polling as high as 6% One of my biggest ever RTV bets.

But Jay polling 6% yet coming 2nd means that the polls were craap.

bets placed in shops Henry.  Had a bit of a run.  If only MVG had won the World Darts Championships after leading 4-2 in the final, who I'd backed at 66/1 and 50/1 in shops it might have given me the impetus to have had another run this year.

Henry VIII 31 May 13 00:09 
But Jay polling 6% yet coming 2nd means that the polls were craap.


No, Henry, it means he polled 6%, Alex 5%, and Aaron a thoroughly justified 89%.

When it was Aaron and Jay in the final 2 I was very nervous!  PC3 had just been introduced, I was having a slight crisis of confidence, with my worst 2 months combined in 9 years and I'd never considered Jay a factor.  Wasn't a huge win, but it avoided a significant loss at a mentally fragile time, and set me on quite a positive run.

"a thoroughly justified 89%"

Its all coming back to me now.  There was this debate about splashing some prize money and there was a prize money twist.  Jay was being the dumb good guy and gaining momentum by spending some of the cash on a pair of shoes for Alex?  Aaron was being Aaron and thought Jay was a pratt, saying he'd never do that in real life.  Nervous times.

Clydebank, I think no-one had considered Jay, and we probably all had him red to some degree. As some panicked, they chased each other down to about 1.7?

After getting a little 2.58 Attraction I decided to take 1.6K that was on 2.5 earlier this evening. Should I be feeling mentally fragile?

I tend to find my normal ignorant mental stupor counters feelings of fragility and keeps me relaxed.

Need to find opportunities now to cover their chasers.

Yeah i think you are right.  When Alex surprisingly got evicted, people thought well he got more votes than Alex and the Aaron anti vote might kick in.  I was worried but his price became ridiculous so it was a time to stand firm and pray.  I think I backed Jay at around 7/1 during the week (I think I was 5-10k red at that point), not because I thought it was value, just because I was a little uncomfortable about the size of my red with this twist, thought the price might be going south and I wanted a little more piece of mind.

Yeah i think you are right.  When Alex surprisingly got evicted, people thought well he got more votes than Alex and the Aaron anti vote might kick in.  I was worried but his price became ridiculous so it was a time to stand firm and pray.  I think I backed Jay at around 7/1 during the week (I think I was 5-10k red at that point), not because I thought it was value, just because I was a little uncomfortable about the size of my red with this twist, thought the price might be going south and I wanted a little more piece of mind.

superb pimping by the prods

so far they have got every act they wanted in the final

everyone of the last acts to perform has won the public vote

4 of the six finalists are kids

superb pimping by the prods

so far they have got every act they wanted in the final

everyone of the last acts to perform has won the public vote

4 of the six finalists are kids

Lumanites  19,523 likes
Pre Skool   21,156 likes

Unexpected.

Nice call with the young ones Fig

Had a little on @ 3/1 to qualify,along with the speculative OR couple of quid

Shame about MC Boy going out though

Given Cowell`s declaration of intent for Jack and Luminites I think you`re quite brave, Henry.  As they are one of my only two greens, I wish you the best of luck with it, but you can clearly see Cowell counting the money if Luminites win, or wallowing in the kudos of having someone like Jack win. A level playing field? They`re great value. Deramped all the way from slot two? We`ve done our money. We`re all nothing  more than pawns in Cowell`s dirty little hands.

He has favourites of course but they may not be necessarily the ones he says are his favourites.

I don't think he could get a Luminites win. Jack possibly, but comedians are a risk and he may have already used his best jokes.

I also don't think he'd make any money on the Luminites.

Jack or Attraction would be a new type of winner. Good for brand, ie BGT longevity. Attraction would attract quality foreign acts in future. Also good for brand. He sells his shows all over the world so I don't think he cares that much for the "Britain's" part of Britain's Got Talent.

However I am looking to get rid of red on the top few, and maybe go further. If Attraction are rubbish on Saturday and drift then I'm stuck.

Yes to all of your points.

Maybe, after being on the wrong end of his so unsubtle manouevres over the last couple of days I am crediting him with more power than I should be. It`s just that, as Judorick points out above, he has been supremely successful this week in getting what he wanted.

Cheers Hems.
If Danzaa's figures are right then I suspect they came very close to beating the most pimped act of the week, from trap 4

Another early slot in the final, no doubt. So they don't spoil the chances of the Luminites finishing in the top 3

some of Pre Skool on TM atm.

Going to do something different in the final

They should go back to the school uniforms of their audition. It was very cute. They should go for cutsie rather than mimicking teenage dancers.

Yes. I thought the original uniforms were better. Probably why they changed them

grumpy old men discussing school uniforms

I have never worked at the BBC

..and I am sure Henry hasn't