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stu
19 Jan 13 10:08
Joined:
Date Joined: 12 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 15,691 | Blogger: stu's blog
This is getting rather surreal.
Pause Switch to Standard View Tricia last price matched...15.0
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Report ShirleyKnot January 22, 2013 6:06 PM GMT
https://twitter.com/Roy_Castle_Lung/status/293779930066591744/photo/1
Report GeorgeBrush January 22, 2013 6:09 PM GMT
Almost 3000 followers Mischief
Report squares January 22, 2013 6:10 PM GMT
altho by Saturday morning there was only 18K matched on here which was the pretty much the lowest volume of all the HMs.
Report Cider January 22, 2013 6:10 PM GMT
15th looks right on oddschecker too.
Report attitude adjuster January 22, 2013 6:11 PM GMT
she'll be favourite to go tomorrow during the show Wink
Report GeorgeBrush January 22, 2013 6:16 PM GMT
Crowd reaction to her last Friday sounded like the adverts had started
Report Dizzy42 January 22, 2013 6:21 PM GMT
To answer a couple of points above:

FLL - surely the player(s) in question have got their cash down now so they'll sit tight.  Why keep going into the market.  They presumably had their limit and I would guess they've filled their boots for now.  Otherwise they'd be laying Tricia for eviction too.  The prime motivation is not necessarily about the money, we have to remember this.  No sign for me that they've got cold feet - that's pure conjecture.

Secondly, why on earth would you expect them to back Tricia at sub 5 when they're on mostly at double figures.  I suspect that the majority of the gamble below 10s was triggered by opportunists jumping on the bandwagon - or to manage their own liabilities on the market.  Wouldn't take much to continue the initial momentum - even beyond what we may think are common sense levels.  But I very much doubt that the player(s) has bet much at lower odds than, say 15/2 or 8/1.  The bookies cut straight to 3s, 7/2 straight after suspending the market.
Report Dizzy42 January 22, 2013 6:25 PM GMT
In fact, plenty of the money sub-10s would have been from the bookies themselves that had laid higher prices when they realised what was going on...
Report RMB © January 22, 2013 6:38 PM GMT
I don't see that at all. Bookmakers don't take serious bets on this. I'd be amazed if any Specials Compiler built up more than a £3-4k loss on her.
Report Cider January 22, 2013 6:44 PM GMT
I can get £10k liability with one bookie at least (on cbb)
Report GeorgeBrush January 22, 2013 6:45 PM GMT
Lets not forget they would be laying bets into a lot of green built up by Rylan lays
Report RMB © January 22, 2013 6:45 PM GMT
I need to go to your bookies.
Report Cider January 22, 2013 6:49 PM GMT
I seem to be luckier than most with getting on. Don't really know why, take obvious precautions and don't really arb.
Report fatboy January 22, 2013 7:03 PM GMT
Cider don't take this the wrong way but maybe they look at your account and see that you have been giving them more than than have been giving you. Why restrict an account which has a record of losing?
Report Cider January 22, 2013 7:17 PM GMT
That could be the answer, fatboy.
Report fatboy January 22, 2013 7:24 PM GMT
You know when you are doing something ok when they restrict you to 0.01p on Premier league Sunday 4pm game between Man Utd v Chelsea!
Report nigelpm1 January 22, 2013 7:31 PM GMT

Jan 22, 2013 -- 1:24PM, fatboy wrote:


You know when you are doing something ok when they restrict you to 0.01p on Premier league Sunday 4pm game between Man Utd v Chelsea!


Or they just send you an email to tell you they don't want your business.  Like trophies ;-)

Report George Bailey January 22, 2013 7:47 PM GMT

Jan 22, 2013 -- 12:04PM, Cider wrote:


GB2 was chief instigator


Cool

Report George Bailey January 22, 2013 7:49 PM GMT
I cannot tell a lie it was me who rolled the snowball from the top of the mountain.
Report GeorgeBrush January 22, 2013 8:21 PM GMT
You did genuinely think you'd started it Wink
Report George Bailey January 22, 2013 8:24 PM GMT
nope not for a second
Report George Bailey January 22, 2013 8:25 PM GMT
Just going along with the conspiracists/Sherlock Holmeses on here Laugh
Report nigelpm1 January 22, 2013 8:36 PM GMT
Quick question for you folk about the Betfair Premium charge as it looks like I'm going to hit it shortly - is it calc'ed every week as per : https://account.betfair.com/regpay-myaccount/premiumcharge/summary.html

and when does it get taken out of your account?
Report GeorgeBrush January 22, 2013 8:41 PM GMT
Yes, and Wednesday
Report nigelpm1 January 22, 2013 8:42 PM GMT
thieves!  Will have to start utilising BDAQ
Report GeorgeBrush January 22, 2013 8:44 PM GMT
Never even bothered trying for years

Should prolly give it another go
Report nigelpm1 January 22, 2013 8:47 PM GMT

Jan 22, 2013 -- 2:44PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:


Never even bothered trying for yearsShould prolly give it another go


Would only use it as hedge mechanism - i.e. leave an order on BDAQ - hope it gets filled and lay off any green on BF

Report squares January 22, 2013 9:30 PM GMT
Fashion Police task with Paula reads well for Trish??
Report George Bailey January 22, 2013 9:33 PM GMT
If she does well her price drops if she is invisible her price drops....difference is if she is highlighted the panic will go into overdrive.
Report GeorgeBrush January 22, 2013 9:42 PM GMT
Fashion police task seems to be designed to give Rylan loads of airtime

About time he had some Laugh
Report squares January 22, 2013 9:44 PM GMT
who is Rylan Plain
Report attitude adjuster January 22, 2013 9:52 PM GMT
"doing well" in the highlights is soooooo 2008 Wink
Report GeorgeBrush January 22, 2013 9:54 PM GMT
Laugh

Bit like being Scottish
Report Mariner Paul January 22, 2013 10:13 PM GMT
I've never watched CBB but have a sizable red on Tricia. Should I be worried?
Report attitude adjuster January 22, 2013 10:18 PM GMT
No
Report Mariner Paul January 22, 2013 10:19 PM GMT
Rylan has drifted 6 ticks today. Why?
Report attitude adjuster January 22, 2013 10:20 PM GMT
he was 1.8 yesterday...can't be xmas every day Wink
Report George Bailey January 22, 2013 11:22 PM GMT
Claire shows compassion? Feck off you stupid biatch
Report Henry VIII January 23, 2013 2:12 PM GMT
I haven't contacted C5 yet, iirc a couple on this thread said they had. Will probably see if she goes tonight. If not I'll be trying to tell them that the ending of a fair vote is the ending of a BB pillar. It would also be a big blow to Specials betting.

Tim's idea about it being a publicity attempt had crossed my mind but it hasn't come to pass. That is there hasn't been the associated publicity drive. It's fundamentally different from Jedward or the political one. There's also been no Cav type vote campaign.

So it's either an automated vote scam or a betting error.
Report Henry VIII January 23, 2013 4:00 PM GMT
If there were that many lemmings we could all be millionaires. That theory implies that the market has behaved stupider than at any other time.
Report squares January 23, 2013 6:13 PM GMT
What the viewers think of our second favourite - from Jamie's Viewers' Venom quiz:-

Fellow chum Tricia also got a lashing, being described as 'dull, pointless, embarrassing and waste of space'. Turning to her fellow contestants, she glumly asked, "Am I dull?" before sadly staring off into the distance. Although she seemed to get over it after a bit of reassurance from her pals, we have a feeling this isn't the last we've heard about it...
Report attitude adjuster January 23, 2013 6:30 PM GMT
The worst price in CBB or BB history.
Report Charles1980 January 23, 2013 9:17 PM GMT
agreed
Report Charles1980 January 23, 2013 10:08 PM GMT
looooooooooooooooooooooooooool
Report cnman January 23, 2013 10:09 PM GMT
LOL. MUG MARKET PUNISHED. very disappointed she didn't go first tonight though
Report Rider January 23, 2013 10:10 PM GMT
money talks, lol
Report Charles1980 January 23, 2013 10:12 PM GMT
Just gutted I didn't max out a lay on her. Sometimes things look too good to be true.
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 23, 2013 10:17 PM GMT
Many were fooled it seems. I'd love to know who was behind this plot. Care to reveal all, Mr Manipulator?
Report RMB © January 23, 2013 10:20 PM GMT

Jan 23, 2013 -- 4:12PM, Charles1980 wrote:


Just gutted I didn't max out a lay on her. Sometimes things look too good to be true.


Same. Actually lost on her as backed her for 5th Eviction lol. :(

Report lucylucky January 23, 2013 10:27 PM GMT
i admit it, i layed 3.5 trisha for 3 figures!
Report johnnyrant January 23, 2013 10:45 PM GMT
Don't consider it being fooled; simply better to be safe than sorry. Everything is obvious in hindsight. if she was still in, she'd probably be trading at 3.5.
Report attitude adjuster January 23, 2013 10:53 PM GMT
have to disagree jr

people were basically backing a betting coup at 5/2.

she was a 150-1 shot otherwise.


real betting coups don't get discussed on forums for days on end before a final.
Report hemsby January 23, 2013 10:55 PM GMT
WP aa.....staunch in your denial from the outset...spot on Cool
Report attitude adjuster January 23, 2013 10:58 PM GMT
cheers hem

blind pigs and all that Happy
Report johnnyrant January 23, 2013 11:01 PM GMT
If you were happy to leave yourself exposed in 4 figures on her aa, then well played. But not the way I like to play these markets. There was enough to suggest something was afoot. I rarely position myself with big reds on any of these markets. So I had Tricia matched at big odds already & was not left exposed on her when the gamble began.
Report RMB © January 23, 2013 11:11 PM GMT

Jan 23, 2013 -- 4:53PM, attitude adjuster wrote:


have to disagree jrpeople were basically backing a betting coup at 5/2.she was a 150-1 shot otherwise.real betting coups don't get discussed on forums for days on end before a final.


Spot on. You called it throughout as well sir, enjoy your winnings, very envious of your brave stance. Cool

Report timbuctooth January 23, 2013 11:20 PM GMT
attitude adjuster 23 Jan 13 22:53 
have to disagree jr

real betting coups don't get discussed on forums for days on end before a final.


aa. I know we both ended up on the same side in the end, but we obviously got there by different routes. For a week or so, there was a full blown coup underway. Incredible defective work by a few people established that beyond doubt. It was no coincidence that the gamble dried up just after this evidence began to enter the public domain.
Report attitude adjuster January 23, 2013 11:24 PM GMT
true tim the forum did a lot of good work,albeit there were some slightly wayward theories in there as well Happy
Report Dizzy42 January 24, 2013 10:04 AM GMT

Jan 23, 2013 -- 5:01PM, johnnyrant wrote:


If you were happy to leave yourself exposed in 4 figures on her aa, then well played. But not the way I like to play these markets. There was enough to suggest something was afoot. I rarely position myself with big reds on any of these markets. So I had Tricia matched at big odds already & was not left exposed on her when the gamble began.


Same here JR - you never go bust making a profit no matter how small that may be...

Report Rider January 24, 2013 1:47 PM GMT
dizzy,everyone who goes bust makes a profit on some bets, hth
Report johnnyrant January 24, 2013 3:17 PM GMT
Dizzy is clearly talking about 'all bets' Rider, & turning a profit overall
Report attitude adjuster January 24, 2013 4:00 PM GMT
an alltime great thread Happy
Report lookingon January 24, 2013 4:09 PM GMT
More interesting to read than a "Who DONE IT" book.
Report timbuctooth January 24, 2013 4:47 PM GMT
I've just re-read it as well. Interesting to see the changes of opinion as the 'coup' developed. Mine included.
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 24, 2013 5:03 PM GMT
The interesting thing to note is just how many reduced their liability for fear of losing. It shows just how easy it is to pull off this type of plot when so many seasoned punters are so easily spooked. Although, most will probably be a little wiser next time so it won't be so easy to pull off.
Report lookingon January 24, 2013 5:23 PM GMT
If she had of escaped eviction last night, I'd of really got worried. I still feel I'd of hoped for the best and kept her red but it would have been my only time apart from Pete bennet I'd have lost on BB.
The one thing I've learned from this BB is don't get greedy! Laying her seemed like free money, which it was in the end but I'd have prefered not to have gone through the panic.
Report lookingon January 24, 2013 5:33 PM GMT
I usually always like to watch the final with them all green, even the ones with "no chance" LOL because I always feel there is always the possibility of a "coup". Better to win regardless how big or small than to come out of it with nothing or less than you started with!
Report Rider January 24, 2013 5:43 PM GMT
johnnyrant • January 24, 2013 3:17 PM GMT
Dizzy is clearly talking about 'all bets' Rider, & turning a profit overall


so if you make a profit on 'all bets' you dont go skint, no sh!tLaugh
Report johnnyrant January 24, 2013 6:20 PM GMT
yes, well done Ryder - you've got the idea.
Report johnnyrant January 24, 2013 6:20 PM GMT
sorry, Rider.
Report RMB © January 24, 2013 6:25 PM GMT
The £200,000 layer probably laughing their way to the bank. Fair play to them, has to be said.
Report Henry VIII January 24, 2013 6:35 PM GMT
There is no 200K layer. Total BF betting volume for Tricia was 112K, that's 56K laid, and a lot of people made up that amount.
Report Henry VIII January 24, 2013 6:38 PM GMT
But I agree in spirit, there probably someone a lot richer.
Report RMB © January 24, 2013 6:40 PM GMT
After she left a single lump came in laying £200 at 1000.0 (999/1). I know at least 1 person £10k richer for the Tricia price plunge and someone making a killing on the Spreads. But for every yin there is a yang, and I hope they're doing alright.
Report nigelpm1 January 24, 2013 6:41 PM GMT

Jan 24, 2013 -- 10:47AM, timbuctooth wrote:


I've just re-read it as well. Interesting to see the changes of opinion as the 'coup' developed. Mine included.


Not got time to read through - out of interest how many people didn't change their opinions?

Report nigelpm1 January 24, 2013 6:42 PM GMT

Jan 24, 2013 -- 11:03AM, Jack Bauer '24' wrote:


The interesting thing to note is just how many reduced their liability for fear of losing. It shows just how easy it is to pull off this type of plot when so many seasoned punters are so easily spooked. Although, most will probably be a little wiser next time so it won't be so easy to pull off.


Indeed, that was my central point throughout the thread from memory.

Report Henry VIII January 24, 2013 6:46 PM GMT
At first I couldn’t understand how anyone non-compulsive could be backing Tricia at low odds. Even though I thought it might be a vote scam with at least a possibility of success.

Now several intelligent posters have said they did so because they were worried about their Tricia reds I can see there was some degree of lemmingness. Thanks to them for being honest and adding some clarity.
Report Henry VIII January 24, 2013 6:51 PM GMT
"After she left a single lump came in laying £200 at 1000.0 (999/1)."

That doesn't have to relate to any previous betting. It was immediately taken down anyway, just like all the 50K's that kept popping up.
Report nigelpm1 January 24, 2013 6:57 PM GMT
Still 900 on DAQ for anyone who likes free money
Report RMB © January 24, 2013 7:02 PM GMT
No, it doesn't have to relate to any previous betting, it certainly could do though. Probably hemsby picking off the market, the sniper that he is...
Report lookingon January 24, 2013 7:03 PM GMT
You only have to look at her graph to (smell a rat) since she left a hell of alot more has gone on her than anybody else eliminated.
Report Henry VIII January 24, 2013 7:06 PM GMT
From the betting patterns at the time though I still think there was one huge low odds backer amongst the panicers. For whatever reason – aborted scam, lemming, compulsion, etc.
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 24, 2013 7:11 PM GMT
I think the reason the manipulators started the plunge was that they discovered that there was a voting campaign being organised by Tricia's family and friends and knowing that she was a big outsider whom most considered had no chance of winning and would therefore have big reds would make most panic and drive the price down. 

Combined with the prospect of her possibly standing up to Speidi, the manipulators found the perfect opportunity to spook the market to lay off their Tricia bets and to lump on Rylan. This all started when they tried push Rylan's price out on the night Lacey left when a big lump laying Rylan appeared.
Report RMB © January 24, 2013 7:14 PM GMT
timbuctooth has proof as to what happened but it's too hush hush for this public forum.
Report Henry VIII January 24, 2013 7:17 PM GMT
We can all do that. Let's all copy them next market. Chaos theory in Specials.
Report Henry VIII January 24, 2013 7:18 PM GMT
^ to Jack.
Report Dizzy42 January 24, 2013 7:31 PM GMT
I'd be interested to know who was backing Tricia at sub 10s. Bookies cut odds very quickly went from 33s and 25s down to 14s and 16s, then straight to 8s / 10s, then again a jump down to 3s.  It didn't take an avalanche with them - they'd have cut the price every time they laid another £25 to £50.  I hedged at 16s, then got this back laying Tricia for 5th eviction (dodged a bullet there!), but I'd be surprised if any seasoned specials punters panicked at the very short prices.  Someone must have been taking them though?
Report timbuctooth January 24, 2013 7:34 PM GMT
nigelpm1 24 Jan 13 18:41

Not got time to read through - out of interest how many people didn't change their opinions?


Maybe 4? 5?  Also 4 or 5 bailing out. But maybe 30-40 different posters, so the majority undeclared.
Report Henry VIII January 24, 2013 7:42 PM GMT
I'm sure most of it was new money, not connected to any Tricia red. (It's hardly a clever hedge anyway). And the market had been too small for that amount of bandwaggoners amongst the normal punters. So someone new. But not the person backing at high odds, if the high odds backer was a shrewdie, and we can't even be sure of that.

Maybe a fan who is in love with her Happy
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 24, 2013 7:45 PM GMT
Lots of people panicked and gave away their Rylan greens at bad value, which was the main aim of the whole exercise, I suspect.
Report George Bailey January 24, 2013 7:45 PM GMT
journotom reckons it was her hubby who was betting on her by the look of it.  He certainly looks rich enough to toss money around on betting or mass phone calls.

https://twitter.com/journotom/status/294228238908133376
Report Henry VIII January 24, 2013 7:47 PM GMT
"and we can't even be sure of that"... if he also backed low.
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 24, 2013 7:56 PM GMT
I doubt it was her husband spooking the market last night with the 50k backs. He probably started the plunge by having good few quid on his wife to win thinking the voting campaign stood a good chance and then it snowballed when the manipulators and the lemmings got involved.
Report timbuctooth January 24, 2013 8:25 PM GMT
For those that can`t be bothered to go to the link:

Tom Savage Tom Savage ‏@journotom

Feel sorry for @marksimpkin and the tens of thousands of pounds of gambling winnings he lost when wife @triciapenrose was evicted tonight.



Tom`couldn`t say that unless it`s true. He won`t want to be discredited and sued for libel. He also has a long record of 100% reliability when it comes to Specials stories/leaks. I`d say this is a pretty damned big piece of the jigsaw being filled in for the doubters.
Report GeorgeBrush January 24, 2013 8:31 PM GMT
Simpkin could have made a massive profit laying on here for all we know
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 24, 2013 8:58 PM GMT
tens of thousands of pounds of gambling winnings

I presume he's referring to the money he would have won, in which case his stake may be no more than a grand or so.
Report nigelpm1 January 24, 2013 11:49 PM GMT
So he started the move - so what? that's definitely possible but my point still stands that irrationality moved in fast literally handing out £10 notes to people

I can only hope we get more like this.
Report Dizzy42 January 25, 2013 9:29 AM GMT
Easy to say 'so what' in hindsight Nigel. You were incredibly dismissive of such suggestions just days ago, yet it looks like some on here were spot on in their thinking.
Report nigelpm1 January 25, 2013 9:56 AM GMT

Jan 25, 2013 -- 3:29AM, Dizzy42 wrote:


Easy to say 'so what' in hindsight Nigel. You were incredibly dismissive of such suggestions just days ago, yet it looks like some on here were spot on in their thinking.


I was dismissive of the phone voting scam and him being behind it - not surprising at all that he had a little bet on the side.

Report Dizzy42 January 25, 2013 3:37 PM GMT
Depends on what you class as a little bet, of course... And in a market like this, even limited stakes at big odds would have still been enough to spark the initial gamble, if not the snowball that followed.
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