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squares
01 Dec 12 15:31
Joined:
Date Joined: 26 Feb 01
| Topic/replies: 60,779 | Blogger: squares's blog
DANCES and TUNES

Kimberley and Pasha – Jive to Land of 1000 Dances by Wilson Picket
Denise and James – Salsa to Rhythm Of The Night by Valeria
Louis and Flavia – Charleston to Dr Wanna Do by Caro Emerald
Lisa and Robin – Quickstep to Bring Me Sunshine by Jive Aces
Michael and Natalie – Samba to Tequila by The Champs
Nicky and Karen – Argentine Tango to Skyfall by Adele
Dani and Vincent – Viennese Waltz to That’s Amore by Dean Martin
Pause Switch to Standard View ***SCD WK 9 OFFICIAL LIVE IR FRED***
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Report Henry VIII December 4, 2012 12:32 AM GMT
A friend who watches SCD says she likes watching Louis and DVO best but she would never vote for DVO because she’s always top of the leader board so can’t get in B2 and even if she did she would be saved. I just spoke with her today. It seems obvious now.

If DVO wins it would be good for most on here because it would help cure you of group-think. You should therefore hope for it happening.
Report Hamsterdam December 4, 2012 12:35 AM GMT
I've always maintained she'd need to do it via a dance-off btw not looking as good as last week though admittingly...but knowing SCD there will be twists and turns to come...that leader board is a real game changer...just ask Gethin/fll Laugh
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 4, 2012 12:36 AM GMT
Henry

I don't go in for the group think as you know.  I have my own opinions of which some of them will be the same as the 'group think' which is good I suppose as it's nice to have others who feel the same.

As I state below though I do think it's a shame that where DVO is surely the best dancer she may well not win it with women being jealous of her looks/figure.  I just feel sorry for her.  She dances better than the rest so what more can she do?
Report bexley December 4, 2012 12:36 AM GMT
Oh the old argument that people dont vote for people because they know they don't need the vote bullsheeit. Turned out well for Ella didn't it? LaughLaugh
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 12:38 AM GMT

Dec 4, 2012 -- 12:30AM, LOU MACARIS TARTAN B wrote:


Seriously though George for a minute please.I do think it's a shame that in what is a dancing competition it turns into a popularity thing with of course the women voting deliberately for the good looking/hunky male.Same as X Factor.  We're really looking for the best singer in a singing competition but again little girls fancying the boys, women voting the hunkier guys.You get the point.  I just think it's a shame really I do.


All of these things are popularity contests though Lou. You have a bit of a block with this

The one most popular at dancing wins, not always the best dancer

Uh oh, I feel we have gone back in time Grin

Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 4, 2012 12:39 AM GMT
Bex

Exactly!!


Do think a woman winning the dancing is very hard though.  90% of the audience look to be women, most of them overweight, not good looking particularly so they begrudge voting for a very attractive DVO.  Also there's Louis who's a good dancer too and male.  Just a shame I think it comes to that.
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 12:39 AM GMT

Dec 4, 2012 -- 12:32AM, Henry VIII wrote:


A friend who watches SCD says she likes watching Louis and DVO best but she would never vote for DVO because she’s always top of the leader board so can’t get in B2 and even if she did she would be saved. I just spoke with her today. It seems obvious now.If DVO wins it would be good for most on here because it would help cure you of group-think. You should therefore hope for it happening.


We had Rose for that, don't need DVO

Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 12:40 AM GMT
Louis is great though Lou

DVO has been dancing since she could fcking walk

It's the public using democracy
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 4, 2012 12:40 AM GMT
George

I take your point but I just think it's shame that's all.  It's like DVO scores 3 goals, say Louis and Kimberley 2 goals each but DVO doesn't win.  I just don't think it's right that's all.
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 12:41 AM GMT
She should have been sent off Wink
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 4, 2012 12:41 AM GMT
I don't think Louis is 'great' myself George.  Pure dancing wise not in DVO's league.
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 12:43 AM GMT
I knew there'd be trouble as soon as I saw her name.

You are taking it well tbf!

She ain't gonna win unless they contrive to keep Louis out of the final...

Which I think would go down like Rolf Harris on a school bus
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 4, 2012 12:43 AM GMT
I just wish the judges voted the winner and take away the publics biased towards the acts.  I know they can't because of the revenue but I just wish it was judged fairly and given to the best dancer/singer.
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 12:44 AM GMT
Nobody would watch it Lou
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 12:44 AM GMT
Or about as many as Young musician of the year
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 4, 2012 12:45 AM GMT
Yes true I suppose.
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 12:45 AM GMT
Best singer is impossible to define anyway

4m scousers thought it was Ray not Leona
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 4, 2012 12:46 AM GMT
I think they'd still watch 'Strictly' though.  It's a wonderful programme.  The music is fabulous, all the dancers get better as they go along, the costumes are wonderful.  The pro dances are terriffic.  Just great Saturday night prime time TV.
Report George Bailey December 4, 2012 12:47 AM GMT

Dec 4, 2012 -- 12:43AM, LOU MACARIS TARTAN B wrote:


I just wish the judges voted the winner and take away the publics biased towards the acts.

Report George Bailey December 4, 2012 12:47 AM GMT
oh feck it...too tired to retype
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 12:48 AM GMT
You'll have enjoyed the royal variety tonight Lou
Report George Bailey December 4, 2012 12:48 AM GMT
Lou who would win XF if the "panel" decided the final this week?
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 4, 2012 12:48 AM GMT
George

But that's what I mean about the 'biased' purely voting their own.  What was the point of them singing when surely 99% of people can hear it's a mismatch with Ray and Leona yet they all vote for him anyway.  Just not right IMO.
Report Henry VIII December 4, 2012 12:49 AM GMT
"Oh the old argument that people dont vote for people because they know they don't need the vote bullsheeit. Turned out well for Ella didn't it?"

I heard it today from a 45 year old MEM who votes. One person doesn't mean anything I know, but it made me think - with DVO they already know that she's got full marks in half of it and is safe. They didn't know that with Ella.
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 12:49 AM GMT

Dec 4, 2012 -- 12:48AM, George Bailey wrote:


Lou who would win XF if the "panel" decided the final this week?


Same as who will win anyway Wink

Report mach December 4, 2012 12:49 AM GMT
we should also get judges to vote the fairest winner of bigbrother, that would be great LMAO
Report George Bailey December 4, 2012 12:50 AM GMT
And the panel you want to pick the winner Lou aren't "biased"?
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 12:50 AM GMT
It would be better than the last 2 c unts winning lol
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 12:51 AM GMT
(to mach)
Report George Bailey December 4, 2012 12:51 AM GMT
Wild guess but are you the eldest/only child Lou?
Report mach December 4, 2012 12:51 AM GMT
not if there big greens
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 4, 2012 12:52 AM GMT
I did enjot Royal Variety yes.  I fast forwarded the bits I didn't want but must have watched two thirds.  Good to see the old comics, Brucie, Tarby and Little Ronnie.  The operatic stuff was lovely.  I think 'Mr Bojangles' is a lovely song and he did it ok I suppose. Girls Aloud sang a very catchy tine I thought.   The dancing dog nakes me smile, the acrobats and great stuff from Neil Diamond at the end. 

I love Rod the Mod but thought his Christmas song was weak.
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 12:53 AM GMT
Chris on the drift XF I see

I always wonder who gets to see figures apart from the star, and are they the ones that move the markets mideweek?
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 12:53 AM GMT
midweek
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 4, 2012 12:53 AM GMT
George  Bailey

Wild guess but are you the eldest/only child Lou?

No on both counts.
Report George Bailey December 4, 2012 12:56 AM GMT
Told you it was a wild guess Wink
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 4, 2012 12:59 AM GMT
yes quite a way out there I have to say. Wink
Report George Bailey December 4, 2012 1:06 AM GMT
Oldest usually fixated with rules/fairness...like me.  Your panel to decide idea is just plain wrong by the way.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 4, 2012 1:12 AM GMT
I just wish they could decide so in theory there was no biased and the best singer/dancer did win.

Look when Hollins won for instance.  He got better don't get me wrong and became a good dancer but as good as Wittle?  Just not right I don't think.
Report judorick December 4, 2012 1:17 AM GMT
FOUR MILLION SCOUSERS!!!!!!!! AngryAngry

there can't seriously be 4 million Scousers can there?

anyway, I said right from the very start that DVO would not get the public vote and was certain not to win... hope that's right coz I still have a large red on her
Report Henry VIII December 4, 2012 1:19 AM GMT
"Henry

I don't go in for the group think as you know.  I have my own opinions of which some of them will be the same as the 'group think' which is good I suppose as it's nice to have others who feel the same.

As I state below though I do think it's a shame that where DVO is surely the best dancer she may well not win it with women being jealous of her looks/figure.  I just feel sorry for her.  She dances better than the rest so what more can she do?
"

I think more and more will think like us Lou. But Louis is defo deserved favourite atm.
Report bexley December 4, 2012 10:08 AM GMT

Dec 4, 2012 -- 12:49AM, Henry VIII wrote:


"Oh the old argument that people dont vote for people because they know they don't need the vote bullsheeit. Turned out well for Ella didn't it?"I heard it today from a 45 year old MEM who votes. One person doesn't mean anything I know, but it made me think - with DVO they already know that she's got full marks in half of it and is safe. They didn't know that with Ella.


Its just an excuse to why they haven't picked up the phone and voted. Top of the leaderboard doesn't necessarily mean safe in these contests.
According to the Star leak - in week 4 when DVO wasn't top of the leaderboard she fell down to 9th in combined scores.
Occams Razor here - she isnt getting votes because shes not popularCool

Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 10:10 AM GMT
Has Louis topped the board before this week?

Yes I think - looks like he topped the vote too
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 10:10 AM GMT
Halloween he was top?
Report bexley December 4, 2012 10:13 AM GMT
Louis was top in week 4 - he topped the combined also - Yes Halloween
Report squares December 4, 2012 10:15 AM GMT
there is a most helpful Strictly Weekly Scores Thread GB
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 4, 2012 10:16 AM GMT
bex

What is the 'combined'?
Report bexley December 4, 2012 10:17 AM GMT
The Star Leak showed a table of combined placing - the ranking resulting from the position in the judges scoreboard and the public vote combined
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B December 4, 2012 10:18 AM GMT
Oh I see thanks
Report bexley December 4, 2012 10:29 AM GMT
Henry I'm not having a go but the argument about not being motivated to vote for contestants at the top of the leaderboard is trotted out every year on SCD after a shock elimination or bottom 2 placing. Its not like your MEM had a revalation, no offence.

Its uncanny how many on here have already concluded that a person isn't popular or well liked in advance of each shock result ie Kimberley this year being the first, was the person I and others have been most strongly against (at the price) since the start.

The Star leak may be confirmation bias but the only way DVO has a chance imo is if the judges go back to the treatment of Louis of the two weeks prior to the Charleston, and that his performances are as lacklustre as his Wembley one. Highly unlikely to me.
Report bexley December 4, 2012 10:31 AM GMT
Her price may well firm up again on the back of leaderboard topping performances again but I'd guess there will be plenty layers willing to take her on if it does.
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 10:34 AM GMT

Dec 4, 2012 -- 10:29AM, bexley wrote:


Henry I'm not having a go but the argument about not being motivated to vote for contestants at the top of the leaderboard is trotted out every year on SCD after a shock elimination or bottom 2 placing. Its not like your MEM had a revalation, no offence.Its uncanny how many on here have already concluded that a person isn't popular or well liked in advance of each shock result ie Kimberley this year being the first, was the person I and others have been most strongly against (at the price) since the start.The Star leak may be confirmation bias but the only way DVO has a chance imo is if the judges go back to the treatment of Louis of the two weeks prior to the Charleston, and that his performances are as lacklustre as his Wembley one. Highly unlikely to me.


Quite likely to me.  But Louis's vote just got bigger when they slagged him off

They need a final with him in surely?  Henceforth he wins

Report bexley December 4, 2012 10:44 AM GMT
The only way for Louis to get beat is to show he is not improving and that the low judges scoring is in some way merited.

Wembley week he was second combined - its no surprise to me as this was the only real time to me when his marks were deserved. (In saying that he was probably only second because of that and Kimbles B2 bounce vote)

The following week the judges were cool to a technically good Paso. I personally thought Flavia messed up badly in not giving the judges what they wanted  and in some way the marking was fair but he still topped the leaderboard.

After the Charleston and the VT about the acting lessons I don't know how they can realistically do this without just further motivating his supporters to vote.
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 10:47 AM GMT
Certainly cause a massive fuss if they contrived to keep him out of the final

Him winning tops off the feelgood year well
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 10:47 AM GMT
DVO a creditable 2nd I expect
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 10:48 AM GMT
Although by no means a cert there
Report ajchrisbro December 4, 2012 10:51 AM GMT
GeorgeBrush
04 Dec 12 10:47
Joined:
16 Jun 02
| Topic/replies: 42,713 | Blogger: GeorgeBrush's blog
DVO a creditable 2nd I expect

you need Nicky to be in final for that to happen and even then I wouldnt be confident.
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 10:55 AM GMT
Maybe, yes

I do think there might be a best dancer vote for her in the end. But enough for 2nd I dunno . I was probably getting ahead of myself
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 10:55 AM GMT
Maybe she can beat Dani, but wouldn't beat Lisa
Report ajchrisbro December 4, 2012 11:11 AM GMT
Possibly but she needs help from judges to get the more popular females into the dance off before it becomes public vote only.
The lower down the leaderboard they can get Louis the better for that outcome to become reality
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 11:13 AM GMT
Is DVO a b2 risk even if she's top this week?
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 11:14 AM GMT
With a Nicky small bounce she'd likely be bottom of public
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 11:14 AM GMT
Kim's lack of support prolly prevents it tbh
Report ajchrisbro December 4, 2012 11:31 AM GMT
Strictly judges know the craic better than the XF ones that's for sure.
Get Nicky up the leaderboard in the hope he isnt least popular, get DVO back to top of leaderboard and get Louis down to deflect the female voters away from voting their own.
That may push 2 females into dance off and as long as it isnt Kim and DVO job done.

DVO 6 + 1 (2)
KIM 5 + 2 (1)
NICKY 4 + 3
DANI 3 + 4
LOUIS 2 + 6
LISA 1 + 5

No ties and game over as far as I can see
Report five leaves left December 4, 2012 11:42 AM GMT
Anyone else having problems with betfair this morning?

Both the forum and the betting site have large empty borders on each side.
Report bexley December 4, 2012 11:43 AM GMT
me also leaves and many others
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 11:46 AM GMT
Haven't they just centred the site rather than having it left justified?

In the coding I imagine
Report bexley December 4, 2012 11:46 AM GMT
nit sure what you were trying to prove in that example above aj but by your calculations that would be a Lisa v DVO dance off - not what u were meaning?
Report five leaves left December 4, 2012 11:47 AM GMT
It's totally fooked GB.

Surprise, surprise but when you switch to the new site, the borders disappear and the site fills the whole screen.

The new forum still has the borders tho.
Report ajchrisbro December 4, 2012 11:51 AM GMT
Hi Bex,

it was meant, GB and I were discussing the chances of DVO being 2nd or top female and I gave a scenario of how it could be achieved by getting rid of one of her perceived dangers
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 11:53 AM GMT
Shame someone can still go despite being 2nd with the public

All part of the game I guess
Report bexley December 4, 2012 12:01 PM GMT

Dec 4, 2012 -- 11:51AM, ajchrisbro wrote:


Hi Bex,it was meant, GB and I were discussing the chances of DVO being 2nd or top female and I gave a scenario of how it could be achieved by getting rid of one of her perceived dangers


cool

Report ajchrisbro December 4, 2012 12:02 PM GMT
Yes it is GB
I think it does rely heavily on no ties but they are due a week without them so entirely possible.
Report bexley December 4, 2012 12:02 PM GMT
DVO B2 and bounce wouldn't be something I want to see tbh
Report bexley December 4, 2012 12:04 PM GMT
...but better now than in the semi final perhaps. I'd rather she went straight into the final with no B2 though it seems unlikely on the Star leaks
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 12:09 PM GMT
DVo bounce won't be enough, calm down
Report bexley December 4, 2012 12:10 PM GMT
I'm thinking about second place  and top female , not the win Wink
Report ajchrisbro December 4, 2012 12:15 PM GMT
Im with you Bex, I thought it was a bit too easy to win in the TF market but in hindsight
it is quite easy to get Lisa and Dani out.
Report five leaves left December 4, 2012 1:48 PM GMT
One of Lisa or Dani very likely to be in the final, beat DVO and therfore be top female.
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 1:51 PM GMT
One has to be I guess
Report five leaves left December 4, 2012 2:04 PM GMT
I don't see how they can possibly get both DVO and Kimbers to the final.
One will have to be sacrificed and that will clearly be Kimbers.
Also everything points to them liking Dani, so they'd be happy to have her in the final.
4/1 looks big. With a saver on Lisa
Report ajchrisbro December 4, 2012 2:11 PM GMT
Fig I have backed the same as you for TF market, but I recognise there is a possibility that DVO could well be the last female before the end of the dance offs.

I gave a scenario a few posts back on how this could happen,
are you saying this isnt feasible
Report five leaves left December 4, 2012 2:13 PM GMT
They can get rid of Lisa, but I don't see how they can get rid of Dani too.

Nicky, Kimbers and DVO are all polling too badly.
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 2:17 PM GMT
Preventing Dani or Lisa in the final would mean saving Nicky twice? And Kim twice?

Surely can't happen?
Report johnnyrant December 4, 2012 2:35 PM GMT
None of their actions on the show suggest they want to get rid of any of the decent female dancers until they have to. Far from it, they have looked to actively protect them.

This could be read as providing a cushion for Denise given they know she is polling badly - as it'll at least mean she makes the final. But Dani or Lisa for TF has to be the wise value call.
.
http://bit.ly/UA28wc
Report ajchrisbro December 4, 2012 2:43 PM GMT
No GB they can do it in a way where it is perfectly justifiable to save Kim (against Nicky), Nicky wouldnt be saved again and DVO hits the dance off only once

lets assume my earlier scenario was this week

next week

DVO 5 + 1 (2)
LOUIS 4 + 5
DANI 3 + 4
KIM 3 + 2 (1) saved
NICKY 2 + 3


so they got rid of nicky

the week after its not beyond realms to score as below

DVO 4 + 1 saved
KIM 3 + 2
LOUIS 2 + 4
DANI 1 + 3

a lot of assumptions I admit but these scenarios are not impossible
thus DVO gets the bounce at right time and beats Kim in final for TF
Report squares December 4, 2012 2:45 PM GMT
Site and forum still in a fkin mess here Cry

Is there a good possiblity that this weekend is the last of the dance offs, and maybe the B2 just leave the following week.

If so, if DVO happened to be B2 this week and saved, that could well give her enough of a bounce to get her into the final.

Do they want just one guy (Louis) left after this weekend?  They could easily ramp Nicky + maybe a bounce to keep him out of the B2 this weekend, knowing he is then highly likely to go the following week.

Sorry if all this has been said already - forum virtually unworkable atm.
Report squares December 4, 2012 2:51 PM GMT
Hurrah - site back to normal.  Forum still a mess tho.
Report squares December 4, 2012 2:53 PM GMT
Extending the width has helped.  TFFT
Report ajchrisbro December 4, 2012 2:54 PM GMT
Hi Sq, yes it was said earlier, in short to get rid of a girl this week they need to do 2 things.

Overmark Nicky to a safe possy on LB and undermark Louis so that folk vote for him and not the girls because they think he is not safe
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 2:58 PM GMT
Only top safe for Nicky?
Report squares December 4, 2012 3:10 PM GMT
not necessarily
Report ajchrisbro December 4, 2012 3:18 PM GMT
Im with Sq, I think there's a good chance he would escape if he was 3rd this week with no ties
Report bexley December 4, 2012 3:52 PM GMT
I'm leaning towards a chance Nicky survives this week. I thought his dance was excellent last week and in no way deserving of a B2 placing. Ok his vote appears to have been dreadful but I think rather than a bottom2 bounce this week there may be a little lets call it a 'fair play' bounce (as long of course if this weeks dance is also of a high standard)

I definitely wont be taking long odds on his elimination
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 4:15 PM GMT
2 birds then

Hope it's not Lisa
Report bexley December 4, 2012 5:10 PM GMT
I was thinking a shock Louis elimination
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 5:57 PM GMT
Impossible if he's top innit

They could only get him in the semi
Report Hamsterdam December 4, 2012 8:19 PM GMT
Can we not forget the very popular Alesha fell into the dance-off in the quarters...she of course went on to win...not that Denise is anywhere near as popular as her but vote drop-outs do happen...it could even happen to Louis. There's no reason to vote on mass for Denise at the moment. A quarter final dance-off remains Denise's best chance.
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 8:35 PM GMT
I would say b2 is good for her, yes

If she takes it well
Report GeorgeBrush December 4, 2012 8:37 PM GMT
Oo er
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