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George Bailey
07 Sep 12 08:21
Joined:
Date Joined: 04 Apr 10
| Topic/replies: 62,054 | Blogger: George Bailey's blog
Can't find the presidential election thread. Romney now at 3s.  Just had a big bet. Its possible he miht go longer today but I suspect not. Obabma speech effect will be very short lived. The polss are VERY close. Nowhere near the level of enthusiasm for Obama as last time.

Unemployment figures due so. Today?

Anyway at 3s Romney I think will be at 2.82 within a week at most and likely much lower before the debates.

See it as a trading opportunity and a quick profit.
Pause Switch to Standard View +++Romney back to lay+++
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Report stringerbell November 7, 2012 10:53 AM GMT
sandy was an act of god if ever there was one
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 10:53 AM GMT
He was on Obama? Shocked
Report GeorgeBrush November 7, 2012 10:54 AM GMT
Possibly fakers can get away with 3 weeks?   Luke got away with 10 Plain
Report GeorgeBrush November 7, 2012 10:54 AM GMT
No wonder there was 35m matched
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 10:55 AM GMT
When Katrina hit New orleans Bush got slaughtered even though his offers of help were in part rejected....people freezing to death in NY and Obama gets lauded.
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 10:56 AM GMT
I'm glad he won...its just my book talking...just business as they say in the mafia
Report GeorgeBrush November 7, 2012 10:56 AM GMT
Republicans are still heavily tainted by Bush. A more MOR candidate might have won it for them
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 10:56 AM GMT
I'm tainted by bush too Laugh
Report GeorgeBrush November 7, 2012 10:57 AM GMT
We don't like posh boys here either, only elect them when the left are perceived to have given too much money away
Report hemsby November 7, 2012 10:57 AM GMT
Re IACGMOOH has the line-up been confirmed yet? Paddies got specials on Nadine Dorries ...11/2 out first any good?
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 10:57 AM GMT
Republicans fecked now. Lost popular vote 5 out of 6. Hispanics/blacks growing. Adapt or die.
Report stringerbell November 7, 2012 10:58 AM GMT
ah george with respect that is a ludicrous way of looking at it..

bush was a total disaster in new orleans. he did everything wrong. the city was largely abandoned. bush was playing golf the morning it hit.

obama was all over sandy (as he knew he had to be). he did what a president should

to compare the two is to compare caviar with a pack of pickled onion monster munch
Report GeorgeBrush November 7, 2012 10:58 AM GMT
I much prefer Pickled OMM, but also prefer Obama so this is awkward for me
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 10:58 AM GMT
Fair enough..just regurgitating twitter bumf
Report stringerbell November 7, 2012 10:59 AM GMT
the irony is that romney is MOR for the republicans...

admittedly, if bloomberg had run, had he not left the party 5 years ago then obama may have been in trouble...
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 10:59 AM GMT
Pickled OMM? A euphemism?
Report GeorgeBrush November 7, 2012 11:00 AM GMT
Yep, good irony Nick. They are in big trouble unless the economy lurches down again. The shame is Obama can only do 4 more years
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 11:00 AM GMT
Yanks need to move to a PV system to elect. EC is bullsh1t and disenfranchises 90% of the electorate. bad for democracy.
Report stringerbell November 7, 2012 11:01 AM GMT
find it interesting that many people view chris christie's praising of obama during sandy as a tacit way of saying i am going to run in 2016. if the repubicans had won yesterday it would have killed off his chances. by praising obama and looking bipartisan, he subtly boosted obamas chances and improved his own chances of being the republican white knight (a big fat bas*ard of a white knight, admittedly) in 2016

obama's victory speech was really rousing though wasnt it?
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 11:03 AM GMT
dunno didn't watch it...he's a bit of a windbag really. Too lazy and arrogant to do his homework before the first debate.  Christie is toast. He will become the hate figure of the right.
Report GeorgeBrush November 7, 2012 11:03 AM GMT
We need more of that Nick. He could talk the ecomony upwards
Report GeorgeBrush November 7, 2012 11:04 AM GMT
We need more gambling too Grin
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 11:04 AM GMT
We need the yanks to be able to get on BF. 13m quid...all from Europe Shocked
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 11:05 AM GMT
I thought they wwre going to free up online gambling? land of the free ffs.
Report stringerbell November 7, 2012 11:05 AM GMT
The shame is Obama can only do 4 more years

too right, i have high hopes that by 2016 the economy will be booming and obama will have had success in the middle east....and he will be up there with lincoln and reagan.

think of the legacy

most important piece of social legislation in 60 years
killing osama bed linen
sorting out middle east
turning around the economy
getting out of afghan and iraq

when you think about it, name me a president post reagan who really does have a positive legacy...

even clinton - what did he actually do

the people who criticise obama make me want to vomit all over their heads...
Report stringerbell November 7, 2012 11:07 AM GMT
betfair have been lobbying usa extensively but mot sure thay are making any headway...

disagree re christie...think he will become the hate figure of the right but the republicans will realise, belatedly that they need a modernising centrist candidate next time around. christie needs to stop eating the pies though
Report RMB © November 7, 2012 11:07 AM GMT
A good night financially and emotionally. Florida gave me plenty of cake then Virginia iced it off and added a cherry. A great day for global politics. The dynamics of global politics is all change though. The US are going to envolve into a shell of their former state - the 'super power'. From the rubble, China emerge, I hope they're less heavy handed than their predecessors.
Report GeorgeBrush November 7, 2012 11:07 AM GMT

Nov 7, 2012 -- 11:04AM, George Bailey wrote:


We need the yanks to be able to get on BF. 13m quid...all from Europe


I'm sure some over there can get on. Or ex pats maybe

Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 11:07 AM GMT
bit harsh nick on detractors...obama doesn't have 4 years he has 18 months before he is a lame duck. the dynamics of a deadlock witht he senate remains. Most people said he was shyte on the economy but still voted him in...very rare that the economy doesn't decide these things.
Report GeorgeBrush November 7, 2012 11:09 AM GMT
Nice to see Rmb winning again Grin
Report stringerbell November 7, 2012 11:09 AM GMT
gb2 there's a really interesting theory on the first debate. that obama took a calculated gamble by deliberately underperforming. he needed to inject some competition into the equation to ensure he could get his voters to turn out. v risky as it gave romney momentum but low democratic turnout was always the danger and this eliminated that possibility. it's a conspiracy theory i quite like...
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 11:09 AM GMT
sounds bollox to me
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 11:10 AM GMT
he ain't that bright..and his "people" were genuinely p1ssed with him.
Report RMB © November 7, 2012 11:10 AM GMT
7%+ employment. $6 trillion added to the debt. Republicans will definitely be shaking their heads as to how the f00k Obama got re-elected. I think a lot of their woman policies, especially abortion stance, might have been the thing that swayed it.
Report RMB © November 7, 2012 11:11 AM GMT
Cheers Brush, doesn't always happen. If it makes you feel better I lost 2.5 City, 2.5 Madrid, so not the best night I must admit!
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 11:11 AM GMT
women, blacks, hispanics and a lot of oldies re healthcare, the poor...romney had white middle aged working men
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 11:12 AM GMT
when I typed that I realised what a putz I was gambling wise...over thunk it all.
Report stringerbell November 7, 2012 11:13 AM GMT
thing is gb, he inherited a disaster of an economy, and okay he has added to the deficit, but already there are green shoots. i think the fact he was re-elected despite the economy says great things about him and actually about the key 5 per cent that swing these things.

i know it's emotive language gb, maybe i'd only vomit over their shoes - but i find it bewildering, in all seriousness, that obama gets the criticism he does. he is a brilliant man trying to make his way in astonishingly difficult circumstances. the republicans were more fussed about stopping obama than sorting out the country. at least the senate is democratic now. i dont see him becoming a lame duck and it would be an absolute travesty if he was...
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 11:15 AM GMT
they all become lame ducks after 18 months nick; its how it works there. their fault for limiting to two terms. Romney had to be right wing to get the nomination and then centrist to win the election. Impossible to pull off. Let's see how history sees Obama. Not sure your list of "achievement" is enough.
Report stringerbell November 7, 2012 11:18 AM GMT
unemployment was nearly 10m 18 months ago. he HAS added to the debt but this clears most of that up - if you can be arsed - http://www.politifact.com/new-jersey/statements/2012/may/04/chain-email/obama-has-added-more-national-debt-previous-43-pre/

he got re-elected because, when it came to it, people realise that he is a good man trying to do the right thing in difficult circumstances. i dont think it comes down to things like abortion - the usa is a naturally conservative country...
Report stringerbell November 7, 2012 11:18 AM GMT
Romney had to be right wing to get the nomination and then centrist to win the election. Impossible to pull off.

absolutely right
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 11:19 AM GMT
Then why did i back him? Sad
Report stringerbell November 7, 2012 11:23 AM GMT
back to lay presumably gb2?

do you fancy ella or jahmene btw?
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 11:29 AM GMT
Drifted before I could lay. Thought it would be closer on the night. Worth the punt.

Not sure re XF. Missed the fancy prices so went in big at 6/4.  HG says Jahmene beats her as of now so switched. Ella is the class act but she needs to show it and become likeable some how. reasonably happy with my book:

jahmene    2242
maloney    1501
ella    781
james    -414
Report GeorgeBrush November 7, 2012 11:36 AM GMT
When she shows it she'll instantly become more likeable. Still topping the best personality on Tvpolls?

It's hardly panic stations when twunts like Burka and Cardie won
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 11:38 AM GMT
True probably jumped ship too early. But reluctant to always bet on the basis of "what if" too much. Got burned before waiting for the wow moment that never came.
Report GeorgeBrush November 7, 2012 11:41 AM GMT
Wow moments come from the judges in the main, not the performer! Grin  You must have been on TCOFE (for elimination)
Report GeorgeBrush November 7, 2012 11:42 AM GMT
New acronym Cool
Report five leaves left November 7, 2012 11:45 AM GMT
Anyone know when betfair settle the states?
I know Florida still have some votes to count, but Virginia is all over, looking at the BBC site.
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 11:46 AM GMT
Republican lawyers involved...be about March I think.
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 11:48 AM GMT
I'm usually OK with acronyms...but not this time..The Chosen One da de da?
Report five leaves left November 7, 2012 11:49 AM GMT
Laugh I have some big reds on the Republicans in both. I should have levelled up before going to sleep.Sad
Report five leaves left November 7, 2012 11:49 AM GMT
Why the fook have betfair suspended?
Report five leaves left November 7, 2012 11:52 AM GMT
Clicking through, they haven't settled any states. Just suspended them all
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 12:01 PM GMT
I'm sure I traded out 20 quid on one state last night but only 10 went into my total.  Either half asleep or don't understand how BF works...probably a bit of both..but I hate it when i THINK that happens.
Report vincey November 7, 2012 12:09 PM GMT
when will betfair pay up....whats the problem?
Report five leaves left November 7, 2012 12:15 PM GMT
Settling markets is very low down on their priorities.
They're probably busy designing a fruit machine where you lose your bankroll if you get 3 Mitt's in a row.
Report George Bailey November 7, 2012 12:19 PM GMT
They should sort the buffering on the markets out pronto..it will cost some of us money soon if it hasn't already.
Report five leaves left November 7, 2012 12:23 PM GMT
It cost me some on sunday during the sing off.
It's been going on for months. I've just been reading a thread on General Betting about it.
Vittual monopolies tend not to give a fook about their customers.
Report Henry VIII November 7, 2012 12:33 PM GMT
Guys I don’t know if my situation is similar to yours.

Next President market:

According to my P&L that market was settled at 9:08 today. My “Total available” has gone up by what looks like the same amount as the green that I had on Obama. However I had a Rick Perry red that was not added to my “Total available” at the same time.

The helpdesk guy seemed knowledgeable and said that all the runners except Obama and Romney were kind of removed from the market (something about moving the odds to 1.00 for any liability – it sounded right but I haven’t got fully my head around it) and that any liability ie red on the non Obama Romney candidates would have been released to my account sometime around midday yesterday.

BF returning ex-liabilities aren’t recorded on P&L so I’ve got to take their word for it as verifying it for me would take a while. Anybody have similar experience? I wasn’t following it yesterday and haven’t looked at the market for a while, were all the other runners removed from the market towards the end except for Obama Romney?
Report five leaves left November 7, 2012 12:59 PM GMT
Yes, I saw all the other runners were removed or hidden. It was so the % was 100% ish I think. Rather than running at about 106%, because of about 60, 1000 shots.

As you say Henry, that market has been settled now. I'm just wondering why the hold up in settling the states.
Florida is clearly going to take some time, but all the others are cut and dried.
Report five leaves left November 7, 2012 1:04 PM GMT
..and why suspend them if they're not cut and dried.
Report timbuctooth November 7, 2012 1:29 PM GMT
I had a bet on some American political market a year or two ago, and it wasn`t settled for about two months.
Report five leaves left November 7, 2012 2:01 PM GMT
2 months? Laugh
I can see Florida dragging out that long, but no reason for the others to.
Report stringerbell November 7, 2012 2:30 PM GMT
you remember that really articulate guy who was posted for a while, mainly about economics, and was sure obama wouldnt get a 2nd term. wonder what happened to him? caznt remember his name
Report stringerbell November 7, 2012 2:31 PM GMT
posting...
Report stringerbell November 7, 2012 2:31 PM GMT
he was an expert on currency
Report five leaves left November 7, 2012 2:33 PM GMT
FXDUX?
Report GeorgeBrush November 7, 2012 2:36 PM GMT
I think he spvnked all his cash on some right wing loon?
Report GeorgeBrush November 7, 2012 2:36 PM GMT
Didn't even get to the Romney stage Grin
Report GeorgeBrush November 7, 2012 2:37 PM GMT
(not that I'm saying Romney isn't a right wing loon)
Report five leaves left November 7, 2012 2:47 PM GMT
Yes, he tipped up a couple of absolute nutters to win the Repulican nomination.
TBF they were both good trades if you got out at the right time.
His disappearance suggests he didn't
Report stringerbell November 7, 2012 6:15 PM GMT
ha that's right fig. he did tip perry at 50s who then traded at 2.8 to be fair to him. he was a good addition to the forum....i'd be surprised if he lost heavily
Report five leaves left November 7, 2012 7:08 PM GMT
Virginia settled now and all the other states, bar Florida.
Obama 48K clear so looks in the bag
Report timbuctooth November 7, 2012 8:30 PM GMT
fll

It was at least one month. I think it might have been a primary, maybe two years ago. A few of us were on it,waiting for it to be settled. Its non-settlement even became a bit of a `where`s Hira` type running joke. I remember posting on here that it had finally been settled. Someone with a better memory than me might be able to fill in the gaps.
Report Dizzy42 November 7, 2012 8:57 PM GMT
Not a bad night all things considered.  Managed to get 1.33 Obama when Virginia was called as 50:50 at around 12.25am and then spent the rest of the time on Florida (best price matched 2.7) and ECV total of 330+ (BP matched 3.5) when it was clear Obama was holding his own.  Makes up for some dodgy earlier bets on Romney winning Florida, although I did still have Obama in Colorado and under 26.5 states for Romney.  Not as profitable as it could have been, as I was expecting the swing states to be closer...

Reflecting on some of the comments above, it's just a shame that Obama wasn't President 12 years ago.  Things could have been quite different in that 2000 election if he had been up against Bush junior... But we'll never know!

As it stands for various reasons I think he's unlikely to ever fulfil his potential, mainly due to an obstructive House of Representatives - as well as the continuing problems with the economy, but at least with the Senate on side he might have an easier run in his second term.  Nothing to lose now...
Report GeorgeBrush November 7, 2012 9:02 PM GMT
Is it another 2 years before elections for the other house?  He might reverse tradition and not be a lame duck for the final 2 years
Report Dizzy42 November 7, 2012 9:08 PM GMT
Yes, I believe so... Though I doubt they will get a democratic Congress during Obama's reign.
Report RMB © November 7, 2012 9:17 PM GMT
Obama for 4 years, Hilary for 8 after. USA is in safe hands for 12 years. Now all we need to worry about is China, Israel, North Korea and Iran.
Report GeorgeBrush November 7, 2012 9:59 PM GMT
I will lay your hilary bets now
Report GeorgeBrush November 7, 2012 10:00 PM GMT

Nov 7, 2012 -- 9:08PM, Dizzy42 wrote:


Yes, I believe so... Though I doubt they will get a democratic Congress during Obama's reign.


Possible if everyone is sick of blocking tactics

Report RMB © November 7, 2012 10:05 PM GMT
If she runs, she'll win. Big IF though but politicians making u-turns are two a penny.
Report Dizzy42 November 7, 2012 11:27 PM GMT
We should all have followed Drew Linzer, featured just now on Newsnight... Then we'd have been a whole lot richer!

Election Day Forecast: Obama 332, Romney 206 by Drew • November 6, 2012

With the last set of polls factored into the model, my final prediction is Obama to win 332 electoral votes, with 206 for Romney. This is both the median and the modal outcome in my electoral vote simulation, and corresponds to Obama winning all of his 2008 states except Indiana and North Carolina.

The four closest states – and therefore the most difficult to predict – are Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado. Of these, my model only expects Romney to win North Carolina; but Florida is a true toss-up, with just a 60% chance of Obama victory. I would not be surprised if Florida ended up going for Romney. If that happens, Obama would win 303 electoral votes, which is the second-most likely scenario in my simulation.

Sounds just like a smarter version of George Bailey to me! Laugh
Report Jack Bauer '24' November 7, 2012 11:44 PM GMT
He's certainly better judge than Dick Morris who was adamant that it would be a landslide for Romney. It will be interesting to see what he has to say for himself on Fox News in just over an hour. Laugh
Report George Bailey November 8, 2012 8:19 AM GMT
Can't argue Dizzy; I was really hoping for someone of his calibre on here to thrash it out with me over the past few weeks and I would have been open to changing my position. Unfortunately look what I had to work with on this forum SadLaugh
Report George Bailey November 8, 2012 8:21 AM GMT
Reaffirms Golden Rule 75(b)...don't over analyse when the fundamentals are the answer.
Report stringerbell November 8, 2012 10:58 AM GMT
sorry gb2, i wasnt around to temper your enthusiasm...sorry
Report five leaves left November 8, 2012 11:35 AM GMT
I tried GB2 Silly
Report bearcub November 8, 2012 11:53 AM GMT
have you lost faith in the right wing unskewedpolls GB Crazy
Report five leaves left November 8, 2012 12:18 PM GMT
Anyone know what's happening in Florida.
100% of votes have been counted and Obama has won it by 43K votes.
Close enough for a recount?
Report five leaves left November 8, 2012 12:19 PM GMT
47K votes even
Report Dizzy42 November 8, 2012 12:19 PM GMT
Talking of which did you see Jon Stewart rip it up on last night's Daily Show?  He was on top form...

http://www.mediaite.com/tv
Report bearcub November 8, 2012 12:26 PM GMT
President Obama leads Romney by about 45,000 votes out of 8.3 million ballots cast in Florida.

That margin is just over a half percent. If the final tally falls within a half percent, then state law orders a recount.

But Cate says Gov. Romney could decline a recount.
Report five leaves left November 8, 2012 12:29 PM GMT
Cheers bearcub.
So hopeully won't be long before it's officially declared.
Report bearcub November 8, 2012 12:33 PM GMT
UPDATE: Allen West has officially filed a lawsuit to impound the voting machines so that a full recount can be done:
Report bearcub November 8, 2012 12:33 PM GMT
UPDATE: Allen West has officially filed a lawsuit to impound the voting machines so that a full recount can be done:
Report bearcub November 8, 2012 12:33 PM GMT
Bad losers imo Wink
Report bearcub November 8, 2012 12:37 PM GMT
screws up all the electoral college votes market too.

Markets re opened
Report five leaves left November 8, 2012 12:42 PM GMT
That's one positive.

I could buy my Republican red back, but it's not huge and I'm more inclined to have more on the Dems.
Report Dizzy42 November 8, 2012 4:36 PM GMT
And of course, as sod's law would have it, those are the two markets I'm most heavily involved with! Cry
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