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George Bailey
07 Sep 12 08:21
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Date Joined: 04 Apr 10
| Topic/replies: 62,054 | Blogger: George Bailey's blog
Can't find the presidential election thread. Romney now at 3s.  Just had a big bet. Its possible he miht go longer today but I suspect not. Obabma speech effect will be very short lived. The polss are VERY close. Nowhere near the level of enthusiasm for Obama as last time.

Unemployment figures due so. Today?

Anyway at 3s Romney I think will be at 2.82 within a week at most and likely much lower before the debates.

See it as a trading opportunity and a quick profit.

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Replies: 522
By:
George Bailey
When: 07 Sep 12 08:22
sorry for typos..some of us have to rush to work Laugh
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 07 Sep 12 09:12
Seems odd Romney is at 3 like
By:
Asparagus Man
When: 07 Sep 12 09:17
Not an expert on this, but wouldn't be convinced the debates are a good thing for Romney, and key swings states looking better for the Democrats at the moment?
By:
lucylucky
When: 07 Sep 12 09:40
ADP employment was up massively yesterday so expect a big non farm payrolls today. All other US data decent in the last month.
By:
George Bailey
When: 08 Sep 12 08:38
2.9 now so I will say mission accomplished for a quick trade. Take profit now or hold your nerve for low 2.8s. Asparagus I said trade before the debates. luckylucky the new jobs figures were much lower than expected.  Happens every time ie a convention bounce that doesn't last long. Ideal for trading. Equivalent of laying in SPOTY when someone has just won something and their price crashes.
By:
razz
When: 09 Sep 12 14:22
romney is not likeable at all(not to mention a disgusting human being Laugh) after his speech he only shortened like 6 points i think. my politician friend told me that whoever is ahead in 2 weeks time will win and that no candidate who has been behind at this time has ever won the election. i'd personally trade out now if i were you
By:
George Bailey
When: 09 Sep 12 14:42
Already laid off the 500 I had on at 3s for a small profit. Still have some 3s+ from ages ago which I will hang on to for now. I don't like Romney or his politics either but re the polls its almost neck and neck.

Obama will also have to break records to win e.g. his very low satisfaction ratings, unemployment figures no previous president has won with iirc.

The other thing with Obama is that all the enthusiasm that had queues of poorer voters and millions of middle classes lining up to vote for him has all but evaporated.  Emperor has no clothes it seems.

Obama still fav as Romney has very little room for error to win ie he really has to win ohio and florida etc and they are close.
By:
George Bailey
When: 24 Oct 12 19:56
Two weeks to go it deserves its own thread rather than being a cuckoo in other nests.  Funny that my original post about 3s down to 2.82 for a quick profit applied this week as well Laugh
By:
George Bailey
When: 24 Oct 12 23:05
4 bad polls for Romney just now in Ohio. Not good. Traded out a fair bit. Early Voting is favouring both of them depending on which spin site you read.
By:
five leaves left
When: 24 Oct 12 23:23
Laugh
By:
George Bailey
When: 24 Oct 12 23:34
That's why I like this market fll...keeps the adrenaline going.  Interestingly Intrade has Romney shortening. He is 2.36 v 1.7.  Huge difference to here. Wish I had just kept sticking the 250 a month limit on there to trade on here.
By:
attitude adjuster
When: 25 Oct 12 00:18
at one stage romney was favourite to win Ohio last night on intrade

O 44%
R 55%

flipped back to Obama now.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 25 Oct 12 02:29
Dick Morris is very confident that Romney is going to win easily according to his research and polling.
By:
five leaves left
When: 25 Oct 12 10:14
Reading his wiki page doesn't fill me with confidence that he's an independent and unbiased voice.
By:
bearcub
When: 25 Oct 12 10:20
Reading his twitter page its pretty obvious he's a big Romney supporter
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 25 Oct 12 10:21
Is there not one single person who is unbiased in the states?  Fcking loons!
By:
bearcub
When: 25 Oct 12 10:28
Donald Trump Happy
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 25 Oct 12 10:36
Oh yeah, forgot
By:
Dizzy42
When: 25 Oct 12 10:53
Backed Romney at 9/2 back in early Oct with Lads, then laid some off at 2s before the 2nd debate.  He should be shorter given the polls, but I was waiting to get out at around 6/4.  What's the consensus - is this as short as he'll get now or will we see him clipped again as election approaches?
By:
five leaves left
When: 25 Oct 12 10:58
Not been following it close enough to give you advice Dizzy, but the Trump revelations appear to have been a damp squib and sentiment appears to be swinging back to Obama after the latest polls.

Today’s polls from the swing states

Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen)

New Hampshire: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen)

New Hampshire: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Lake Research)

Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 44% (Time)

Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 44% (SurveyUSA)

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen)

Ohio: Obama 46%, Romney 44% (Lake Resaearch)

Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 43% (Old Dominion University)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Newsmax/Zogby)
By:
Dizzy42
When: 25 Oct 12 11:00
It'll come down to Ohio and Florida again on the night, and I reckon the outcome will be closer than many have predicted.  But that's no good to me if his price doesn't shorten beforehand of course!
By:
five leaves left
When: 25 Oct 12 11:00
Actually Yesterdays polls ^^^
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 25 Oct 12 11:19
So basically Obama is leading virtually every poll, or is that just the left wing ones?
By:
five leaves left
When: 25 Oct 12 11:21
No idea. I guess they're all the ones from yesterday. Took it from PoliticalBetting.com, which isn't exactly left wing.
By:
Dizzy42
When: 25 Oct 12 11:23
You normally get a fair reflection from Mike Smithson.
By:
five leaves left
When: 25 Oct 12 11:23
Bails has bailed so, I guess he believes them
By:
five leaves left
When: 25 Oct 12 11:25
True Dizzy.
Most of the comment section is full of right wingers tho, who I had much fun taking the p1ss out of after the Tories didn't win a majority.
They weren't a happy bunch. Did their cash and spam face didn't win a majority.
By:
attitude adjuster
When: 25 Oct 12 12:28
its a very twitchy market with lots of liquidity Happy

i think it's going to be very close

Ohio appears to be the key...Obama's still up but only by around 2%

thats too close for comfort

The GOP is a dangerous beast if they get a scent of blood
By:
TheMadness
When: 25 Oct 12 14:55
I suspect Romney is going to win the popular vote but Obama the electoral.
By:
attitude adjuster
When: 25 Oct 12 15:26
Any prices about for that TM??
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 25 Oct 12 15:34
All the pundits and analysts seem to think it's going to be very close with most just favouring Obama except for Dick Morris who is adamant Romney is going to win even if he doesn't win Ohio, although last night on Fox news he stated that he will win Ohio based on his own polling.

He has really stuck his neck out saying that he expects Romney to win with over 300 electoral college votes, so he is either going to look very smart or very silly.
By:
TheMadness
When: 25 Oct 12 16:42
Karl Rove is obviously who he is, but he's a clever guy whose views are worth taking note of...

"This race will be close, depending on a few states. The good news for Mr. Romney is that the ones he needs are breaking his way. He leads in most recent polls in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire and Colorado.

That puts the former Massachusetts governor at 261 in the Electoral College with Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and the great prize, Ohio, still up for grabs. In those states, Mr. Obama has at best a thin edge, while Mr. Romney has momentum, a stronger argument, and time to grab the nine additional electoral votes he needs.

An incumbent president's final number in opinion polls is often his Election Day share of his vote. Undecided voters generally swing the challenger's way. So if Mr. Obama goes into Nov. 6 below 50% in these states—as he now is in almost every one—he is likely to lose them and his chance at a second term."
By:
TheMadness
When: 25 Oct 12 16:46
Some writers I respect a lot such as Roger Kimball are predicting a comfortable win for Romney. But predicting election results is not his area of expertise.
By:
Henry VIII
When: 25 Oct 12 16:52
Incredible show and then either party is high tax high interference exactly like the other.

Obama "I will withdraw from Iraq within one year of taking office". We are still waiting.
By:
George Bailey
When: 25 Oct 12 16:59

Oct 25, 2012 -- 12:18AM, attitude adjuster wrote:


at one stage romney was favourite to win Ohio last night on intradeO 44%R 55% flipped back to Obama now.


blimey....that's some difference of opinion with the bookies here given Romney was 2/1 with laddies.  Arb on McDuff.

By:
RMB ©
When: 25 Oct 12 18:15
That was just for Ohio.
By:
George Bailey
When: 25 Oct 12 18:21
Yes I know...he was 2/1 with laddies for Ohio and 2/1 in o/r.
By:
RMB ©
When: 25 Oct 12 18:37
Ah. Okay. Strange.
By:
George Bailey
When: 25 Oct 12 18:40
He wins Ohio he wins the election.
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