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armagnac
08 Jul 12 12:20
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 60,779 | Blogger: armagnac's blog
Right ive come to the conclusion as some others on here have that the polls are pretty accurate this year.
which i can only put down to the cost of votes this year are far more expensive ?
meaning the core voter will have lot more of a say.
there will be a massive reduction in multi voting this time around, which made last years polls worthless.

so i think we should take more notice of particular polls that have proved reliable so far this series.
hence this thread
Pause Switch to Standard View ****official polls thread****
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Report Henry VIII August 2, 2012 11:17 AM BST
Be good if someone counted up those comments.

I've just thought of one reason - women voters on reality TV. Their preference for men all else being equal. It's not strong though.
Report five leaves left August 2, 2012 11:20 AM BST
TVpolls has consistently had Luke A and Adam doing better in 2nd choices than Deana.

That's strong evidence for me that they'll benefit most from vote transference.
Report bearcub August 2, 2012 11:23 AM BST
If the last 3 are Luke A, Deana and Adam , If Adam leaves next luke A wins quite easily imo.

I can't see Deana picking up vote transference from anyone
Report Henry VIII August 2, 2012 11:24 AM BST
yes
Report hemsby August 2, 2012 11:26 AM BST
Wouldn't there be too short a time period to have an impact to the overall % ?
Report Henry VIII August 2, 2012 11:28 AM BST
* "yes" to TVPolls.

I don't think it's that decisive bearcub, and the final 2 voting window is too small usually to have that effect.

And if they are the final 3 (likely) it needs an immediate vote-again ie the 3rd place hm fans will have just voted their hm to see them gone, very unlikely they'll vote again for someone else.
Report bearcub August 2, 2012 11:43 AM BST
I would say a large % vote again when it comes down to the last 2 Henry. Its a pretty powerful segment, a climax where you can be involved and take part even if your favourite went out in 5th. everyone has an opinion on the last 2 hms. At a minimum you have an ad break and an interview of the third to vote.

If the last 2 sitting on the couch at the end are Luke A and deana i simply think he wins. he's just very votable imo

He has to get to the last 2 though of course Plain
Report squares August 2, 2012 11:44 AM BST
I think people would be more likely to vote again if there was someone they definitely didn't want to win left in the final 2.
Report bearcub August 2, 2012 11:47 AM BST
agreed Squares, and as much as it pains me to say so I think Deana does have a negative there

Though i dont think that negative really shows up that much in these types of shows thankfully
Report hemsby August 2, 2012 12:07 PM BST

Aug 2, 2012 -- 11:17AM, Henry VIII wrote:


Be good if someone counted up those comments.I've just thought of one reason - women voters on reality TV. Their preference for men all else being equal. It's not strong though.


Just been through the "favourite HM" poll on DS and counted the numbers where only 2 HM's were mentioned in the comments section.......surprised me a bit tbh

Deana & Sara (9)
Adam & Luke A (6)
Deana & Luke A (3)
Adam & Deana (1)

Obviously an incredibly small sample,but evidence if Sara goes,then Deana benefits.

Report Henry VIII August 2, 2012 12:10 PM BST
"he's just very votable imo "

Well let's first see how he behaves in the days following him hearing cheers for himself and boos for obese and herpes.
Report bearcub August 2, 2012 12:19 PM BST
The same can be said for Deana too henry.

I think Luke knows the bmi comment was a huge mistake and he's certainly beaten himself up over it enough.

I think he will be a lot more comfortable in a smaller number household where he doesn't feel the need to compete as much.

Im hoping Deana will get bored and find ways of amusing herself, which usually involves taking someone to task over something trivial.

All to play for yet though, only takes a moment to ruin your chances as we all know
Report chunkpants August 2, 2012 12:25 PM BST
If Deana can just say nothing for two weeks she might just fall over the finish line in first.Happy
Report 666_v August 2, 2012 1:30 PM BST
On FB the vast majority of comments are all for Deana - I think this is where the core voters are
Report TheMadness August 2, 2012 1:56 PM BST
Depends if they even leave the lines open when it's a last 2. Didn't they close the lines completely for the Last 3 on Ultimate Big Brother? Can't remember what they did last year
Report timbuctooth August 2, 2012 2:00 PM BST
Lines were open for the last two last year. Cue a mad panic to back Jay down to 1.8x by those who had huge reds on him. Backing Aaron at 2.1x was just lovely.
Report GeorgeBrush August 2, 2012 2:48 PM BST
Jay surely never went that low? Shocked
Report five leaves left August 2, 2012 3:09 PM BST
I can't remember that tbh.
I thought Aaron went well odds on once Alex had gone
Report ahorsewithnoname August 2, 2012 3:13 PM BST
timbucktooth is correct, Jay went odds on just in the last couple of minutes before voting closed.
Report five leaves left August 2, 2012 3:17 PM BST
I guess it was down to the cheers for Jaye and the very mixed response for Aaron. And yet we'd heard the same crowd reactions everytinme each had been up.
Report chunkpants August 2, 2012 3:24 PM BST
I'm pretty sure I back Aaron at 5.1 on the final day last year.
(Tho I could be wrongConfused
Report chunkpants August 2, 2012 3:35 PM BST
*backed
Report GeorgeBrush August 2, 2012 3:45 PM BST
Sure you are wrong. Started maybe about 2.8 and only went lower
Report five leaves left August 2, 2012 3:54 PM BST
I've just read last years thread.
No mention of prices.

I did call Alex 3rd tho Cool
Report GeorgeBrush August 2, 2012 4:09 PM BST
Clearly there would have been a jay price crash but I doubt he went odds on
Report armagnac August 2, 2012 4:13 PM BST
he did
Report armagnac August 2, 2012 4:14 PM BST
so suck my luke a lips
Report GeorgeBrush August 2, 2012 4:14 PM BST
for 5 seconds?
Report armagnac August 2, 2012 4:14 PM BST
ok, i'll take that Love
Report armagnac August 2, 2012 4:14 PM BST
LaughLaugh
Report timbuctooth August 2, 2012 4:39 PM BST
I certainly backed Aaron at 2.1x, I think it was 2.14. On the final night thread I had enough time to point out what value it was. Squares reported that Jay was `favourite with paddies`, and fll said that   
Aaron was `from 30 down to 2` Both reliable reporters, I think we all agree, both reporting that Aaron was, at a minimum, 2.0. with Jay being odds-on.
Report armagnac August 2, 2012 4:50 PM BST
i remember it tim, dont worry about these fecking idiots..clueless gumbies.
more brains in the white room
Report PAKEY August 2, 2012 5:23 PM BST
armagnac
i remember it tim, dont worry about these fecking idiots..clueless gumbies.
more brains in the white room


Bit below the belt that one army, white room couldn't have any less brain cells in there if it was empty. Grin
Report timbuctooth August 2, 2012 5:29 PM BST
Deana cooked them.
Report armagnac August 2, 2012 5:31 PM BST
WinkLaugh
Report ahorsewithnoname August 2, 2012 5:47 PM BST
Guys, I remember it well. After the lines reopened when Alex was third, Jay was around 2.3 then continulously shortened in the few minutes until ending up around 1.9 or maybe a tad shorter when lines closed.
Report GeorgeBrush August 2, 2012 6:06 PM BST
Madder than jack mcmad
Report squares August 2, 2012 6:12 PM BST
I think I can remember 1.88.  I usually post odds matched on final night threads, bit iirc I was on my cr@ppy old laptop somewhere.
Report Hamsterdam August 2, 2012 7:09 PM BST
Deana will be well clear before any mythological vote transference takes place. She's still steaming ahead on BBspy winner poll and most other winner polls.

Facebook voting being cancelled is a hindrance though as I get the feeling she was picking up lots of international votes. Maybe this is why they stopped it? Angry
Report GeorgeBrush August 2, 2012 7:13 PM BST
She killed them all by impersonating indians Wink
Report hemsby August 4, 2012 10:31 AM BST
Week 10: Who's your favourite housemate?
Deana 50.4%
Luke A 16.4%
Adam 15.5%
Scott 7.3%
Sara 6.0%
Luke S 2.6%
Ashleigh 1.7%


232 Votes


Read more: http://www.bbspy.co.uk/bb13/popularity-poll/week-10#ixzz22ZHbV8Mv

View Poll Results: Week 10: Who is your favourite Housemate?
Adam        75    15.40%
Ashleigh        6    1.23%
Deana        257    52.77%
Luke A        83    17.04%
Luke S        9    1.85%
Sara        35    7.19%
Scott        22    4.52%
Voters: 487. You can't vote on this poll right now - are you signed in?


(DS)
Report Henry VIII August 4, 2012 10:39 AM BST
I've been watching Tellymix. Deana is 37% with 1400 votes but she was 42% with 800 votes and has been slipping since.

Suggesting she's favoured amongst hard core fans, who would visit the site more often and vote earlier, but not so much amongst the main casual voters (as we knew from TVPolls).

Unfortunately even Tellymix, which isn't a specific BB site, will still be read mainly by the fans.
Report hemsby August 4, 2012 10:40 AM BST
Who do you want to win Big Brother?

Deana (36%, 509 Votes)
Luke A (22%, 304 Votes)
Adam (20%, 276 Votes)
Sara (11%, 161 Votes)
Scott (6%, 82 Votes)
Luke S (3%, 37 Votes)
Ashleigh (2%, 32 Votes)
Total Voters: 1,401



Read more: http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/big-brother/98908-poll-who-do-you-want-to-w...
Report Henry VIII August 4, 2012 10:41 AM BST
* I'm quoting her percentage with the total vote figure, not her votes.
Report hemsby August 4, 2012 10:43 AM BST
Guess the question then is,who will the casual viewer vote for? Is there a logical reason to suggest this will be Luke A other than the back story?
Report Henry VIII August 4, 2012 10:50 AM BST
I don't know who they'll vote for but yes there are more reasons Luke A will get votes than his back story.

Vulnerability, humour, and he's the only one with a normal job and a marriage. A hard working taxpayer with a loved one waiting for him is a big plus for the voters (probably a subconscious plus in the main).

I hope not though, I find the whole "blub blub, I just want to be accepted blub blub, and to be accepted I need to win BB and £50K, cough cough blub blub" rather tedious.
Report hemsby August 4, 2012 11:02 AM BST
Cheers H.Im minuscule red Luke A,which I could rectify easily if I so wished.

I'm in complete agreement with your last paragraph however,and he will remain red.
Report armagnac August 4, 2012 11:10 AM BST
i think most of us are resigned to the fact hes the most likely winner because hes playing the 'perfect' game.
he knows what it takes to win and is delivering the goods to the public in a way written by past winners.

still could slip up though, he cant help himself on the b1tching front.
deana has hardcore fans but is more vulnerable to the casuals

one thing to consider is adam also has a back story which we've heard nothing of from him.
with a few DR visits and a late run, he still gets up to beat both on the line with a strong casual vote finish
Report Henry VIII August 4, 2012 11:19 AM BST
"I'm in complete agreement with your last paragraph however,and he will remain red."

Logic error mate. Don't let personal likes or dislikes influence your views of probability.
Report hemsby August 4, 2012 11:25 AM BST
I didn't say I agreed with your second paragraph Wink.

My decision not to cover him is based purely on mathematics.Unlike virtually everyone on here,I rate his chances far less than the current odds on offer,and will therefore not be covering unless his price drifts quite dramatically.
Report hemsby August 4, 2012 11:27 AM BST
As a side note,with the possibility of a double eviction on Friday it's not out of the question to have a 3 horse eviction Deana,Luke A and 1 other.
Report armagnac August 4, 2012 12:15 PM BST
I rate his chances far less than the current odds on offer,and will therefore not be covering unless his price drifts quite dramatically.

agree, im virtually scrach on him now, very small red
still think adam shortens and the other two lengthen before all is done
all to play for, and with the prods handing 50k to the white room anything can happen imo
prods do not give a feck about anyone, i see them leveling the playing field too get as many votes from the diehards as possible in the run up to the final

how on earth the prods justify the criteria for the WR was a fecking joke
every house mate had a right to be in there
just proves the prods dont care one bit
Report armagnac August 4, 2012 7:39 PM BST
very interesting, only 1/4 of DS may vote, think the casual is far more important this year.
probably why tv polls has been so good

.
http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=1708105
Report hemsby August 5, 2012 5:25 AM BST
Who do you want to win Big Brother?

Deana (34%, 998 Votes)
Luke A (21%, 620 Votes)
Adam (20%, 596 Votes)
Sara (12%, 350 Votes)
Scott (8%, 250 Votes)
Luke S (3%, 84 Votes)
Ashleigh (2%, 70 Votes)
Total Voters: 2,968



Read more: http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/big-brother/98908-poll-who-do-you-want-to-w...
Report hemsby August 5, 2012 5:37 AM BST
Virtually no change in the last 20 hours.I must be going crackers,because I just can't see the justification for the continuing drop in price for Luke A.

Are the traders just ensuring a profit,or is his chance accurately reflected by a price of  2.5? I've read about the casual vote alledgedly favouring him,but personally I see no justification for that.With the Olympics reaching a climax over the next 6 days,who's going to be watching this anyway apart from the die hards?
Report Henry VIII August 5, 2012 7:28 AM BST
Good point about the Olympics but it may not be decisive. Wiki weekly average viewers for the week just gone (final week, as you say, may show more difference):

BB12 Week 8   1.4 mill
BB13 Week 8   1.1 mill
Report armagnac August 5, 2012 9:08 AM BST
tbh hems, i think the 1 million viewers BB has are all dihards
its less than 2% of the population figures
when u compare that to soap figures its peanuts, i dont think we'll see much of a drop
900k at worst
Report lookingon August 5, 2012 11:43 AM BST
It makes no difference to me who wins as I have them level (book wise) but I'm now thinking it's Luke A's to win unless he messes up this week! I think there is more chance of Deana messing up with no Connor in the house!.
As for viewing figures come a week monday and Olympics has finished every one is looking for something to watch and I think he has an advantage over the rest of the house to pick up the "casual vote".
Very sadly we still live in a racist country and We have 3 people with a chance of taking the BB title - one is black, one is Indian and one is white!
Report GeorgeBrush August 5, 2012 11:45 AM BST
Embarrassing if white with no c0ck beats black and indian descent. We need to get or prejudices sorted out
Report GeorgeBrush August 5, 2012 11:45 AM BST
our*
Report GeorgeBrush August 5, 2012 11:46 AM BST
Comfy fav now. Been inevitable since beating lauren I guess
Report chunkpants August 5, 2012 12:07 PM BST
I agree looking on. IMO Deana's been a rip off since she went under 3.
The GBP want to win Luke A a new willy, not help Deana buy a new dress
Report chunkpants August 5, 2012 12:10 PM BST
lookingon*
Report lookingon August 5, 2012 12:16 PM BST
****pants I think you couid be right, ha ha!
Report lookingon August 5, 2012 12:17 PM BST
*chunk
Report Orlaith August 6, 2012 12:20 PM BST
Tellymix Poll if you only include the votes from the past 24 hours:

Deana-779 votes-30.9%
Luke A-573 votes-22.8%
Adam-567 votes-22.5%
Report Henry VIII August 6, 2012 12:30 PM BST
That's an interesting one Orlaith. Deana still getting the most with the less fanatic too, this late in the poll.
Report Orlaith August 6, 2012 12:40 PM BST
She was stuggling a bit on there yesterday, only getting marginally more than Luke and Adam, but last night's highlights seem to have really worked in her favour and she is pulling clear again.
Report TheMadness August 6, 2012 5:08 PM BST
Cheers Orlaith. Interesting. My initial reaction to last nights show was that it is better to be featured at this point than disappear into the background.
Report five leaves left August 6, 2012 6:57 PM BST
DS Elim poll.


View Poll Results: Week 10: Who do you want to save?

Adam 128 32.90%
Ashleigh 11 2.83%
Deana 204 52.44%
Scott 46 11.83%

Voters: 389.


Looking at the DS fav HM poll shows that if you take Luke A out then Adam picks up 12.5% and Deana 5%
Report five leaves left August 6, 2012 7:02 PM BST
Luke A & Sara too.
The others don't really count.
Report five leaves left August 6, 2012 7:05 PM BST
TvPolls will be interesting.
We could have Adam leading their elim poll by a decent amount
Report GeorgeBrush August 6, 2012 7:07 PM BST
They've been about level recently. But you'd expect transfer from Luke to Adam
Report TheMadness August 6, 2012 7:24 PM BST
Last week's tvpolls the eviction vote was 48% Luke to 38% Deana. I was surprised Deana was that close on their poll to be honest.
Report hemsby August 7, 2012 10:45 AM BST
Vote for your favourite in our Big Brother eviction poll below…

Big Brother eviction: Who do you want to STAY?

Adam (40%, 288 Votes)
Deana (38%, 275 Votes)
Scott (15%, 111 Votes)
Ashleigh (7%, 43 Votes)
Total Voters: 717



Read more: http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/big-brother/99195-poll-final-big-brother-20...
Report hemsby August 7, 2012 10:53 AM BST
BB2012 - Who do you want to save? [10th Eviction]
     Deana     57.96 % (142)
     Adam     24.08 % (59)
     Scott     13.06 % (32)
     Ashleigh     4.90 % (12)
Total votes: 245
You have already voted!
Version 3.0

TIBB Poll.
Report hemsby August 7, 2012 10:55 AM BST
Have Your Say
Eviction 10: Who do you want to STAY?
Deana
48%
Adam
33%
Scott
14%
Ashleigh
5%
1,103 Votes


Read more: http://www.bbspy.co.uk/#ixzz22qvni6W2
Report five leaves left August 7, 2012 11:07 AM BST
Big difference between forum polls and non forum polls with regards Deana.
Unlike Aaron who was p1ssing both.
Report GeorgeBrush August 7, 2012 11:40 AM BST
tellymix has been as good as tvpolls this series. Great to see Ads out in front
Report five leaves left August 8, 2012 3:28 PM BST
View Poll Results: Week 10: Who do you want to save?

Adam 372 33.51%
Ashleigh 39 3.51%
Deana 558 50.27%
Scott 141 12.70%


Voters: 1110.

Deana has dropped over 2% on DS from earlier in the week and Adam up very slightly.
Report Helmuthian Folds August 8, 2012 4:20 PM BST
The 39 people who say they will vote for Ashleigh should be hunted down and shot!
Report PAKEY August 8, 2012 4:24 PM BST
It's family an mates innit
Report TheMadness August 8, 2012 4:31 PM BST
Tellymix polls...

ho do you want to win Big Brother?

    Deana (33%, 2,616 Votes)
    Luke A (21%, 1,704 Votes)
    Adam (21%, 1,628 Votes)
    Sara (11%, 887 Votes)
    Scott (8%, 660 Votes)
    Luke S (3%, 241 Votes)
    Ashleigh (3%, 192 Votes)

Total Voters: 7,928

Read more: http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/big-brother/99102-big-brother-2012-final-is-one-week-away-who-will-win.html#ixzz22y70OlFa


Big Brother eviction: Who do you want to STAY?

    Deana (43%, 1,734 Votes)
    Adam (37%, 1,504 Votes)
    Scott (13%, 530 Votes)
    Ashleigh (7%, 269 Votes)

Total Voters: 4,037

Read more: http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/big-brother/99102-big-brother-2012-final-is-one-week-away-who-will-win.html#ixzz22y758o4k




Digital Spy

View Poll Results: Week 10: Who do you want to save?
Adam         375     33.63%
Ashleigh         39      3.50%
Deana         560     50.22%
Scott         141     12.65%


View Poll Results: Who do you want to save now after Deana's new personality?
Deana         313     62.23%
Scott         50     9.94%
Ashleigh     18     3.58%
Adam         122     24.25%
Voters: 503. You can't vote on this poll right now - are you signed in?


BB Spy

Eviction 10: Who do you want to STAY?
Deana
47%
Adam
33%
Scott
14%
Ashleigh
6%
1,623 Votes

Read more: http://www.bbspy.co.uk/#ixzz22y8fGREa


The thing that intrigues me is that Deana is actually polling better on certain polls than she was when she was relatively inoffensive.
Report TheMadness August 8, 2012 4:33 PM BST
This Is Big Brother

BB2012 - Who do you want to save? [10th Eviction]
      Deana     56.74 % (303)
      Adam     24.34 % (130)
      Scott     14.23 % (76)
      Ashleigh     4.68 % (25)
Total votes: 534
Report Jack Bauer '24' August 8, 2012 4:36 PM BST
That's because her fans can see that her haters are trying to make a mountain out of a molehill with regard to her behaviour the last few days and it will probably strengthen their support as it did with Aaron.
Report armagnac August 8, 2012 4:38 PM BST
aaron also had masses of casual vote, deana has none now
so stop comparing with aaron all the time ffs

hth
Report Jack Bauer '24' August 8, 2012 4:39 PM BST
There is very little casual vote on this show.
Report Jack Bauer '24' August 8, 2012 4:43 PM BST
I think some people fail to see a distinction between BB and CBB. There is a much bigger casual vote on CBB, imo.
Report five leaves left August 8, 2012 4:44 PM BST
It doesn't have casual voters in the way it did 4 or 5 years ago, but the vast majority of voters in the final never post on forums or FB.
Report TheMadness August 8, 2012 4:46 PM BST
Can't remember who it was who pointed this out, but the final weekend does clash with some pretty big final events on the Olympics.
Report GeorgeBrush August 8, 2012 4:50 PM BST
Not the final itself though...
Report armagnac August 8, 2012 4:55 PM BST
monday will see massive figures and casuals, will go against deana
Report TheMadness August 8, 2012 4:56 PM BST
I can't help but think there's a lack of enthusiasm for this years show. Terry Christian summed it up when he said there was no one in there very likeable.

I still think Luke A wins (although he's disappearing into the background), but I actually think all this heat with Deana going into the final is a positive for her. Especially if after the 3rd place announcement the lines are then only kept open for an extra 5 minutes or so, providing the support is legit and she hasn't come third of course.

I would haven't have any of the top 3 red.
Report GeorgeBrush August 8, 2012 5:00 PM BST
It's BB. Of course there's a lack of enthusiasm Wink  It's been 200 times more exciting than last year tbh
Report PAKEY August 8, 2012 5:39 PM BST
I've loved this year's BB and the cruelty of the things BB has been setting up.
Voting face to face and friends and family voting were fantastic.

I think they should have saved face to face for the final vote though, to make sure there was an interesting final week.
Report Henry VIII August 8, 2012 8:19 PM BST
aaron also had masses of casual vote, deana has none now
so stop comparing with aaron all the time ffs


No evidence Aaron had masses of casual vote, evidence he did have fans multi-voting thousand of times because they discussed it in the forums.
Report Henry VIII August 8, 2012 8:20 PM BST
I’ve transferred a lot of Deana green onto the other two as she seems to be continuing her provoking. I still think (atm anyway) she’s got more chance of being in the final two than Adam, if so her price will shorten again. And the win can’t be written off due to all her loony fans. Her fans will be multi-voting Friday evening, Saturday and Sunday, whilst the casuals will vote once on the Monday evening.

In fact her recent bad behaviour seems to have increased fan support. Anybody understand the psychology of this? Is it the same that happened with Aaron? Maybe people can’t face the fact that they were wrong about somebody. Or maybe they enjoy payback, an eye for an eye etc.
Report Hamsterdam August 8, 2012 8:42 PM BST
For Deana to lose...somebody else has to win Wink

Adam and Luke A aren't looking like winners from where I'm standing.
Report armagnac August 8, 2012 8:44 PM BST
Confused
Report PAKEY August 9, 2012 10:04 AM BST
Hamsterdam
For Deana to lose...somebody else has to win
Adam and Luke A aren't looking like winners from where I'm standing.


Get on there Sara ya wee beauty Wink
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