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five leaves left
22 May 12 17:36
Joined:
Date Joined: 24 Dec 05
| Topic/replies: 113,902 | Blogger: five leaves left's blog
My bet is it will be when Greece perform for most on here.

Running order.

Montenegro
Iceland
Greece
Latvia
Albania
(break & an Albania ramp during the rehearsals)   
Romania
Switzerland
Belgium
Finland
Israel
San Marino
Cyprus
Denmark
Russia
(break)
Hungary
Austria
Moldova
Ireland
Pause Switch to Standard View *** The 1st Eurovision Semi IR Fred ***
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Report popking May 22, 2012 11:30 PM BST
Strange as it may seem I think 4 may be a better draw for Sweden than  11, 12, 17 or 18.
Report five leaves left May 22, 2012 11:30 PM BST
same here hems. That was my main worry.
no other real powerful ballads, apart from that female rock one
Report five leaves left May 22, 2012 11:31 PM BST
i just keep adding and adding
Report popking May 22, 2012 11:31 PM BST
Bosnia and Slovenia are female ballads and should both make it.  I'm not sure before Spain would be the best draw for them either.
Report vinnie_roe May 22, 2012 11:33 PM BST
check this out  Happy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ls2Nbf_QuQE
Report five leaves left May 22, 2012 11:33 PM BST
Kicking myself I didn't back Moldova for top 10. I do nearly every year
Report Bluenose May 22, 2012 11:33 PM BST
Ireland are as short as 9/1 with some books after that draw
Report five leaves left May 22, 2012 11:34 PM BST
pmsl
Report Corbyguy May 22, 2012 11:35 PM BST
If Sweden qualifies on Thursday then the later it is picked out on screen via the envelope then the less chance they have of picking a late draw in the final as the countries picked out before have more chance to beat them to it to those slots.
Report bexley May 22, 2012 11:35 PM BST
bad day for me I feel like I've been mugged Crazy
Report mugptr May 22, 2012 11:35 PM BST
Disagree fig , T24 has an average finishing position of (17.6) over last 3 years 'and collating 78 points over last 3 years , out of 25 traps is ranked 23 ( bit surprising I know)
Spain's trap being 19  has an average finishing position of (3.6) over last 3 years and collating 431 points .out of 25 traps over that time  period is ranked 2 out of 25

Perhaps they done there homework more than we think
Report MilanBarosh May 22, 2012 11:35 PM BST
i'm not worried at all by the draw for UKRAINE...it will win where ever it's placed...some of you guy's really ought to start believing you know.
Report George Bailey May 22, 2012 11:36 PM BST

May 22, 2012 -- 5:35PM, Corbyguy wrote:


If Sweden qualifies on Thursday then the later it is picked out on screen via the envelope then the less chance they have of picking a late draw in the final as the countries picked out before have more chance to beat them to it to those slots.


Surely not? Just the luck of the draw wherever they are placed envelope wise.

Report five leaves left May 22, 2012 11:37 PM BST
They said they just picked the previous years winning position mug.
They did the same the year before when they had the WC too
Report hemsby May 22, 2012 11:37 PM BST
I really fancy Spain,especially if Sweden are drawn before them.I wasn't too impressed by anything tonight,and it seems you are virtually guaranteed a good vocal from Pastora....then again I ain't really got a Scooby about this sh1t really Crazy
Report five leaves left May 22, 2012 11:38 PM BST
3 years of stats or even 23 mean little in a 43 runner race.

Early bad. Middle OK. Late Good.

Simple as that.
Report George Bailey May 22, 2012 11:38 PM BST
no doubt for me spain is the value..if that means anything in the ESC
Report George Bailey May 22, 2012 11:39 PM BST
1957 winner was trap 6 so grannies not out of it Crazy
Report five leaves left May 22, 2012 11:40 PM BST
I can't see anything that will follow it, GB2, that would have me hugely worried. Except for Loreen ofc
Report MilanBarosh May 22, 2012 11:40 PM BST
i think it's safe to say...none of those qualifiers tonight will have a say in the top 4 market and the top 10 looks out of bounds for many.
Report George Bailey May 22, 2012 11:41 PM BST
what was the last winner that wouldn't have won but for the draw? Any?
Report five leaves left May 22, 2012 11:41 PM BST
Maybe Ukraine the other song I wouldn't want after spain
Report five leaves left May 22, 2012 11:41 PM BST
Probably azer lol
Report George Bailey May 22, 2012 11:43 PM BST
spain will bring the house down of that I'm sure but lack of friends and non english are a worry.  That said we keep getting different winners under the juries so they are doing their job.
Report mugptr May 22, 2012 11:45 PM BST

May 22, 2012 -- 5:38PM, five leaves left wrote:


3 years of stats or even 23 mean little in a 43 runner race.Early bad. Middle OK. Late Good.Simple as that.


Agree to disagree mate , but you know trap order is vital in any specials more so on the bigger the field ,
I could go back years , but most of that is totally irrelevant (due to voting changes).
Recent 3 years at least give an indication ,

I'm happy spain is out of 19 , Germany 20 and hopefully sweeden with a late slot as well.

Report J.O.TOBIN. May 22, 2012 11:46 PM BST
Has to be Swedens night tbhCryCry 6 draws left which gives them a winning chance 2 which wouldnt do their chances much good in 11 and 12 and 2 bogey draws in 4 and 5. Serbia too got to be happy though he would need a late one after spain and Norway too will be ok. Of those already qualified has to be good news for Spain and Germany but bad for the others.
Report George Bailey May 22, 2012 11:47 PM BST
I suspect the draw is not as important as people think on the basis that all the winners I can think of would probably have won anyway.  And I can't recall any legendary "x would have won except for the draw" urban myths.
Report five leaves left May 22, 2012 11:49 PM BST
I'll have to disagree again mug. The actual draw number means nothing mug. You'd need to run the contest 10,000 times to say a any particular number was good or bad.
It's the lateness of it that matters. Plus the songs that suround it.
Report honestcl May 22, 2012 11:49 PM BST
I'm just going through and jettisoning my green on the liked of Cypyus etc. on the basis that anything drawn 16 or earlier just aint gonna win. 

Are fellow punters in agreement that none of those currently drawn 16 or earlier can win even though that includes some decent ones like Greece, Cyprus, Russia, Romania, Italy, France
Report mugptr May 22, 2012 11:50 PM BST
Unusual to disagree with a couple of u , but gb2 , I think sweeden is a green for u ,( sorry if I'm wrong) but if that is the case would u back it again if drawn 4 on thursday
Report bexley May 22, 2012 11:50 PM BST

May 22, 2012 -- 5:49PM, honestcl wrote:


I'm just going through and jettisoning my green on the liked of Cypyus etc. on the basis that anything drawn 16 or earlier just aint gonna win.  Are fellow punters in agreement that none of those currently drawn 16 or earlier can win even though that includes some decent ones like Greece, Cyprus, Russia, Romania, Italy, France


absolutely not

Report five leaves left May 22, 2012 11:50 PM BST
nope. Just makes it harder honest. It's been won from early slots before.
Report bexley May 22, 2012 11:51 PM BST
absolutely not in agreement that is
Report five leaves left May 22, 2012 11:51 PM BST
we agree Bex Cool
Report popking May 22, 2012 11:52 PM BST
I disagree too.  Sure a late draw is great, but a song performed early can still challenge if good enough and with the right songs around it.
Report honestcl May 22, 2012 11:52 PM BST
George Bailey "I suspect the draw is not as important as people think on the basis that all the winners I can think of would probably have won anyway.  And I can't recall any legendary "x would have won except for the draw" urban myths."

________

Sorry mate - can't have that.  I wasn't green on Sweden last year but for me that was the performance of the night yet was drawn early and surrounded by big runners.  Ended 3rd and with a late draw would have won IMHO.


Also think Turkey 2010 may have won with a late draw (was bang in the middle IIRC)

They're just two that spring to mind
Report five leaves left May 22, 2012 11:54 PM BST
going back to particular numbers. ie 23 has a better record than 24, or whatever, just defies logic.

Early makes it harder. Middle slightly less hard. Late easier, to win.
Report honestcl May 22, 2012 11:54 PM BST
five leaves left
nope. Just makes it harder honest. It's been won from early slots before.

___________________

But have any done so recently?  Certainly in the 'jury era' it's been late songs every time
Report Phil7 May 22, 2012 11:54 PM BST
does anyone know when we will learn the votes of the semi final?
Report hemsby May 22, 2012 11:55 PM BST
I would be amazed if in a contest of this nature,it didn't work out to be the later the draw the better.Particularly if lines only open after the last act has performed.In any smallish sample,there will always be statistical quirks...it would be very unusual if there wasn't.
Report five leaves left May 22, 2012 11:55 PM BST
after the final on saturday phil
Report bexley May 22, 2012 11:55 PM BST

May 22, 2012 -- 5:54PM, Phil7 wrote:


does anyone know when we will learn the votes of the semi final?


immediately after the final and don't believe anyone who says they know beforehand is my advice

Report Phil7 May 22, 2012 11:57 PM BST
thanks five leaves left...hope russia is @ top 3... :)
Report bexley May 22, 2012 11:57 PM BST
Unless you are good friends with Jonas Olsson ofc
Report George Bailey May 22, 2012 11:57 PM BST

May 22, 2012 -- 5:50PM, mugptr wrote:


Unusual to disagree with a couple of u , but gb2 , I think sweeden is a green for u ,( sorry if I'm wrong) but if that is the case would u back it again if drawn 4 on thursday


Wouldn't back it again with any draw at these prices mug Wink. Instinctively draw 4 would feel bad but if her name is on the cup she wins anyway.

What if they opened lines after song 1 mug?...another myth methinks that this helps first ones on.

Report five leaves left May 23, 2012 12:00 AM BST

May 22, 2012 -- 5:54PM, honestcl wrote:


five leaves left nope. Just makes it harder honest. It's been won from early slots before. ___________________But have any done so recently?  Certainly in the 'jury era' it's been late songs every time


The juries should make it easier for a song drawn early to win as they shouldn't be swayed by the RO, just the quality of the song

Report mugptr May 23, 2012 12:08 AM BST
Apparently lines not open to last performance this year , but that is 2nd hand from another regular poster (sorry cant remember who)

My point is yes I totally agree the song is important ,and the the runners around it are as well , but past stats are a major factor

Ie

Last 6 years

Been won by T16 -T25
1-4,& 6-12 never been in top 4

Last 3 years
T19- T25 have won
1-6 , 8-10 never been in top 4

Bit like asking a good ground horse running in the national in heavy ground , not impossible but unlikely to win or even place
Report popking May 23, 2012 12:12 AM BST
You don't have to go back much further to find runners and placers from the first 4 songs to perform though.

I agree in general a late draw is better, but it's less important now with the juries, that I also agree with.
Report mugptr May 23, 2012 12:25 AM BST
If its a show , which on viewing figures it obviously is , the show will get better as it goes on, so hence the better acts are back loaded hence a better jury vote , on the basis the draw is straight lol.
With the better acts at the end , or the best entertainment , depends which way you read it , the jury's will vote for them along with the voting public which as we know is also towards the end of shows.

Hence the past stats in my view , but I'm prepared to be shot down on this one.
Report ManWithNoName May 23, 2012 12:38 AM BST
A particularly bad year...most songs total rubbish...so should make for excellent viewing. Romania are value, but I was really sweet on Az last year and I'm struggling this time. However, Sweden must be a lay, surely.
Report Lonnegan May 23, 2012 3:22 AM BST
I'm starting to come around to the fact Turkey and Ukraine are massive value now.

40% chance of a late draw, both have strong allies and I could easily see them trading at half their current price.
Report MilanBarosh May 23, 2012 9:07 AM BST
Lonegan sir...please try to avoid putting Ukraine & Turkey in the same sentence...the former fills me full of optimism, the latter fills my stomach with bile...i thank you.
Report stu May 23, 2012 9:28 AM BST
Interesting discussion on the draw - I'm a Russia layer (fairly heavy red) so it is of some interest to me now with them drawing 6!

I see they are still trading 2nd jollies though!? Confused
Report bexley May 23, 2012 9:30 AM BST
One thought stuck in my mind thinking about last night (and no not I'm fooked this year) and thats on how everything was coming across on tv.

The backdrops were a waste of time, a total irrelevance - Icelands blue ice fields, Romania drums and projected dancers etc anyone remember them? Greece's oyster shells did they stand out for anyone? Anyone notice them at all?

I'm wondering how Loreen's dark stage and snow effect is going to come across. I think her doing her Kate Bush close up without us getting a real 'feel' of the staging and show could, just could look very silly indeed.

I think clever staging and gimmicks may not pay off. Advantage Spain, Azrbaijan perhaps I don't know. Very much Tooji looks slick tomorrow, both Greece and Cyprus came across well enough

Appreciate any views on this - was I alone in this impression?
Report stu May 23, 2012 9:35 AM BST
Pretty much agree Bex - what I thought was that for all the expense of this, the quality of the event on TV looks surprisingly poor. Too many bad camera shots, lack of good direction, close ups that don't work etc.

If you look back at the old Eurovisions where they essentially just turned up and sang (and danced a bit) it wasn't that far off this one! Compare to some of the excellent presentations of the recent past like Turkey's Manga who really almost stole the show with their novel presentation.
Report bexley May 23, 2012 9:40 AM BST
Iceland lighting change on the key change (blue to red) I'd read about and seen it work well in long shots anyone notice this at all - I could go on

Just good camera interaction and fun routines seem to be paying off no staging dramatics
Report honestcl May 23, 2012 9:41 AM BST
Thanks for altering me to that.  Should have seen it myself.

Backed Turkey, Norway and Ukraine.  Strict law of averages says 1 will get a late draw and BOOOOM the price will drop.  Other prices will drift with poor draws but even they have a chance of rebounding depending on the announcements of the scores on Saturday night. 

Only hope for my France bet now is that Belgium and Holland are the first two up and France got off to a flyer a-la Denmark 2010. 

Turkey for instance could easily get a friendly country up first (UK, Azer, Germany etc.) and get off to a flyer and the price will come down.
Report stu May 23, 2012 9:42 AM BST
Looking good for Tooji Love
Report five leaves left May 23, 2012 10:11 AM BST
I'd agree Bex.
Backdrops were pretty irrelevant. I'd add Israel's clocks, which I didn't even notice.
Report Henry VIII May 23, 2012 10:16 AM BST
I agree Bex, I didn't notice backgrounds.

But surely that leads to the opposite of your conclusion about Sweden. A simple stark black background in her case maybe more effective. MF was mainly close shots anyway, and they'll largely emulate that.
Report bexley May 23, 2012 10:22 AM BST
Ok leaves I'm not so sure with Loreen - what about the snow effect? Her staging is usually referrred to as atmospheric, no atmosphere was captured yesterday particularly the dark and brooding Icelandic one. Yeh crazy woman closeups on a dark stage is going to be fine - we will see Cool
Report five leaves left May 23, 2012 10:31 AM BST
Must be a alight worry Bex.

I guess the difference is if I'm not wrong the snow effect is a physical thin, not just on the screen and the staging allows for many closeups of Loreen as she's fairly static and it's just her on stage til the end.
No walking about and the foucs shifting as we saw with Iceland
Report five leaves left May 23, 2012 10:32 AM BST
a slight*
Report five leaves left May 23, 2012 10:32 AM BST
thing* ffz
Report five leaves left May 23, 2012 10:33 AM BST
Albania had lots of close-ups. Most of them rather scary Laugh
Loreen is far more telegenic
Report MilanBarosh May 23, 2012 10:35 AM BST
"Loreen is far more telegenic"...when you do manage to see her face that is Laugh
Report bexley May 23, 2012 10:36 AM BST
Fair enough my point wasn't to make a strong case against Loreen re how last night came across to me but with her such a short favourite it was obviously going to cross my mind as to how it may effect her. Last year staging seemed a very important factor, if last night was anything to go by, much less so this year
Report HGsuperhoopza May 23, 2012 10:37 AM BST
So what is the running order of the countries we know so far?

Plays I am liking so far:

Italy top 5
Germany top 10 (maybe small play top 5 as well)
Lay Sweden (definitely right up there but how tempramental this competition is, it has to be by far the best to warrant that price and I don't think it is).
Lay Ireland top 10 (last year they were a novelty act with their youth, enthusiasm, hair, costumes etc and an upbeat song, won't work this year and a worse song).
Report MilanBarosh May 23, 2012 10:42 AM BST
Jedward were a complete and utter disgrace last night i thought...on hearing the result and even more so in the press conference...a total embarrassment to the oirish nation.
Report honestcl May 23, 2012 10:43 AM BST
Actually - the stuff about screens is interesting because for me the screens were vital last year in Ireland and Ukraine doing well. 

This is where I think Ukraine are masters once again this year because their human dancers interest with the on screen CGI dancers - you can't miss 'em. 

Hey Milan, reserve me a place on your Kiev Express, please.  I'm still 1st Class on the Oslo train but may need to switch after Thursday's draw. 

Also now got spaces in the baggage compartments for goods trains going to Turkey, Greece and Serbia!!
Report HGsuperhoopza May 23, 2012 10:47 AM BST
Honestcl - wouldn't it be easy to buy an interrail ticket?
Report honestcl May 23, 2012 10:49 AM BST
Funnily enough Milan I thought Jedward were their usual amusing selves.  Loving life and enthusiastic and you just knew they'd pull a plum draw. 

I've laid them just like I did last year but they still amuse me in small doses....and my 10 y.o. daughter loves them.  I'll probably let her have a vote on Saturday night for them (after I've voted about 8 times for various acts!) and therein lies your Jedward problem - dads like me letting their young daughters vote for Jedward!!  Crazy
Report honestcl May 23, 2012 10:58 AM BST
HGsuperhoopza
Honestcl - wouldn't it be easy to buy an interrail ticket?

____

Ha ha......YES IT WOULD! 

Just trying to remember the name of the ticket I got to flit around Belgium and Holland for Euro 2000 - I need one of them for the whole of Europe!

Anyone else use one of them?  You had four days of unlimited use to be taken when you wanted in a one month span.  You just wrote in what days you used it. 

It meant you could get on the train and only write the date once you saw the guard board your train checking tickets.  Eindhoven to Amsterdam = free travel if no guard.  Think I got 7 days for the price of 4 that year.  Happy times!  Laugh
Report HGsuperhoopza May 23, 2012 11:00 AM BST
Just get the one where you have unlimited use for 14/21/28 days and can go on any routes covered by the ticket (about 75% of european countries covered), no writing stuff down, just use when you want.

Do my picks and reasoning seem astute to you? (about 10 posts up)
Report HGsuperhoopza May 23, 2012 11:02 AM BST
By the way, anyone see that if it was just down to Jury vote, Blue would have got 5th, meant after all their campaigning, Europe still didn't like them! LaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report honestcl May 23, 2012 12:31 PM BST
Your picks look sound.  Only one I don't like is Italy but I must admit I warmed to her last night.  She seemed a fun girl - not the moody cow she's appeared to be in promo vids.
Report gresty241 May 23, 2012 12:33 PM BST
had a month eurorail ticket which took me from, brussels to as north as oslo then over to budapest plus a host of other european cities. Once it ran out i just bought a day ticket
Report gresty241 May 23, 2012 12:33 PM BST
had a month eurorail ticket which took me from, brussels to as north as oslo then over to budapest plus a host of other european cities. Once it ran out i just bought a day ticket
Report popking May 23, 2012 12:39 PM BST
Blue were actually 5th on the televote last year HG but the juries didn't go for it (probably the vocals) and it only placed 24th with them.
Report squares May 23, 2012 2:00 PM BST
EBU Press Conference:

The conference started with remarks on the 2012 contest, the main points raised were;

    Challenges of the brand new venue. Finished just a few weeks ago.
    Worked for spectators and the technical crew.
    Not solely built for the contest, will be used for other events.

    Televoting returned to 15 minutes Previously it didn't increase the number of votes, and that most people still voted during the recap.

    Successful staging of First Semi-Final

    Some in ear problms for Romanian entry, but fortunately they made the final.

    Voting was validated by Price Waterhouse Cooper.

    Diverse result between jury and televoting

    8 songs agreed by both, 1 thanks to televoters and 1 made it down to the jury.

    Albania did not broadcast live.
    Significant buzz on social media.
    Five out of ten trended topics on twitter were on Eurovision,
    Half a million followers on Facebook
    Programme Book is available as an e-book.
    Archive project on full speed. Digitalised and restored to obtain the best copies of each year. First phase completed as we approach the 60th contest in 2015.
    Secure future for the Eurovision Song Contest.
    Possible that future contests may be on a smaller scale and there may be possible changes to rehearsal schedules to economise on time and finance.
    60th anniversary is approaching in 2015 and looking at ways to celebrate it, and discussions taking place with various broadcasters.
Report five leaves left May 23, 2012 2:03 PM BST
Albania or Iceland due to juries?

Too much to hope for that Russia wasn't in the juries top 10?
Report bexley May 23, 2012 2:07 PM BST
saved by jury Albania (nap)
saved by televote Cyprus
Report five leaves left May 23, 2012 2:14 PM BST
I knew you'd say that Silly

I maintain that cyprus is great little package and fairly jury friendly with excellent choreograhy and set.
It doesn't look like it's just been cobbled together like Greece.
ofc if her vocals were as bad as some say, you could be right Bex
Report Henry VIII May 23, 2012 2:55 PM BST
saved by jury Albania
saved by televote Russia
Report five leaves left May 23, 2012 2:56 PM BST
Denmark suddenly friendless.  Looks odd.
Report bexley May 23, 2012 2:56 PM BST
yes Russia possible, the layers will certainly be praying so
Report bexley May 23, 2012 2:57 PM BST
No the strange thing is it had any
Report five leaves left May 23, 2012 2:59 PM BST
LOL. Don't get me started again Silly

TBH I wasn't impressed with her vocal last night. The costume is silly. But it's one of half a dozen or so songs I'd listen to for pleasure
Report Henry VIII May 23, 2012 3:00 PM BST
Yes I think it has to be Russia. Cyprus was good, no reason for it not to get some jury points.
Report bexley May 23, 2012 3:02 PM BST
Henry Ivi had apparently a bit of a shocker vocally in the jury rehearsal we didn't get to see - thats why I thought it may have been her. Russia however is eually if not more valid but I'm not certain myself

Albania I am sure of
Report five leaves left May 23, 2012 3:05 PM BST
Marmite can do quite well Bex.
Plenty of OMG my ears are bleeding, comments on twitter, but a sizeable minority thought it was as magnificent as I do
Report bexley May 23, 2012 3:09 PM BST
a sizeable minority?? oxymoron Laugh
Report Henry VIII May 23, 2012 3:10 PM BST
I found Albania the most moving. Not exactly fun, but the most powerful.
Report five leaves left May 23, 2012 3:11 PM BST
OK. It was just me and half a dozen others Laugh
Report five leaves left May 23, 2012 3:12 PM BST
Same here Henry.
I just wish she'd gone for the same look as the video. Without the box obviously
Report popking May 23, 2012 3:15 PM BST
Well seems fairly obvious Albania saved by Juries, only other possible is Iceland.

Likely Cyprus or Russia saved by the public, I suspect Russia on the basis, I am not sure Cyprus could have polled so high.
Report Pattern May 23, 2012 3:15 PM BST
stu
23 May 12 09:28
Joined:
12 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 4,136 | Blogger: stu's blog
Interesting discussion on the draw - I'm a Russia layer (fairly heavy red) so it is of some interest to me now with them drawing 6!

I see they are still trading 2nd jollies though!? Confused


As a non-granny fan i thought they stole the show. Little short of an earthquake will prevent them winning.
Report honestcl May 23, 2012 3:35 PM BST
IN a way I'm glad the split is 8-1-1 - kind of validates the system whilst at the same time demonstrates that by and large, the juries and public are thinking along the same lines
Report khpunter May 27, 2012 7:54 AM BST
Who won this semi final?
Report George Bailey May 27, 2012 8:42 AM BST
Russia beat Albania. Be very interesting to see the juries votes with those two. Are they out yet?
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