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johnnyrant
20 Mar 12 18:09
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Date Joined: 14 Feb 07
| Topic/replies: 6,848 | Blogger: johnnyrant's blog
The stand-out solo female ballad in this year's competition, and we are not talking Nadine Beiler or Maja Keuc levels here, but a song (and performer) in a different stratosphere to Austria and Slovenia last year. Any comparisons are redundant given Pastora's vocal quality, and the authentic emotion she evokes singing 'Quedate conmigo'.
Spain bagged the wildcard and took the 19 which is good enough. Personally would have favoured an even later draw but its late enough in the contest to leave an abiding impression, with the somewhat maudlin German song following it, and the key change in the last minute (a big key change historically considered a winning ingredient in ESC songs), raising the power of this spine-tingling power ballad a further notch. Take the 18s and 20s while you can. Spain will be trading much shorter on final night.
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Report popking May 24, 2012 2:50 PM BST
This song remains for me the biggest dilemma of 2012.  I have it green, at the price you can't not and I have it for top 4 and top 10 as well, because I do agree it could top the jury vote, and with any sort of televote it makes it a serious contender.

I can't help worrying though that the same fate will befall it as Austria last year.  A good placing with juries, but well outside the televote top 10.  If that happens, it will probably be closer to 10th place than winning, and could even finish outside of the top 10.

2 months or more on and I still don't know how big to make the green lol.
Report bexley May 24, 2012 2:55 PM BST
Draw stii to come tonight will remain a significant factor in that public vote
Report bexley May 24, 2012 2:55 PM BST
still*
Report stu May 24, 2012 3:01 PM BST
At least you're backing Spain already knowing that it has a pretty decent draw whatever else happens. I agree it is too big a price now, though it's not personally my cup of tea as a song. But this could win, for sure, unlike some other shorties or similar priced.
Report five leaves left May 24, 2012 3:05 PM BST
The big difference between Austria and Spain, pk is that there was little interest in it until the rehearsals and even then only amongst the hardcore fans.

I posted on another thread or maybe on sofabets the number of likes on the eurovision.tv youtube channel for each of their 1st rehearsals.
Austria was under 200 last year and 2/3 positve to dislikes.

Spain was just under 2000 last time I looked a couple of days back and over 90% positive to dislikes
Report popking May 24, 2012 3:07 PM BST
I know, and the arguments you make are strong.

It just worries me that this is a song that is popoular with fanboys too, and will it have the crossover appeal for your average televoter.

I know Pastora is your latest crush, but she does look a bit harsh too and I think this could put some off.
Report five leaves left May 24, 2012 3:07 PM BST
Also an example of where the market was wayout.
iirc Turkey's Manga drifted the week of the final and was available at 70+.

Only the mighty Lena beat it.
Report popking May 24, 2012 3:09 PM BST
The market being way out is not what worries me, that much is definitely true.

I'm just still a bit undecided about whether this is one of the ones the market is that wrong about. :)
Report bexley May 24, 2012 3:15 PM BST
Bound to be a few ballads coming through tonights semi 2. Whats your view leaves - would it concern you if they came close after pastor and grouped closely together ?

I want all these ballads next to Tooji Cool
Report bexley May 24, 2012 3:16 PM BST
or Gaitana
Report five leaves left May 24, 2012 3:24 PM BST
I don't think they're very good ballads, but that must be a concern.
Portugal following Spain wouldn't bother me too much ;)
Report five leaves left May 24, 2012 3:26 PM BST
The song most like Spain is Albania in many ways and I'm just happy that they're both not close together battling it out for 'most impressive vocal of the night'
Report bexley May 24, 2012 3:26 PM BST
Yes but if the betting is a guide we have Serbia Estonia which some would take very seriously but for different reasons and probably Bosnia and Slovenia
Report bexley May 24, 2012 3:27 PM BST
thats a very high % of tonight's qualifiers, personally i hope it doesnt work out that way
Report five leaves left May 24, 2012 3:31 PM BST
True. It's a shame that something like Slovakia was so bad, as that would be a good one, along with the other 2 no hopers in Jedward and Moldova, to fill one of those late slots.

I'm hoping Ott gets a nice late slot as it's my biggest green in the top 10 market Grin..and I don't think it would harm Spains chances too much
Report five leaves left May 24, 2012 3:31 PM BST
True. It's a shame that something like Slovakia was so bad, as that would be a good one, along with the other 2 no hopers in Jedward and Moldova, to fill one of those late slots.

I'm hoping Ott gets a nice late slot as it's my biggest green in the top 10 market Grin..and I don't think it would harm Spains chances too much
Report TennisMan66 May 24, 2012 6:39 PM BST
http://m.yahoo.com/w/legobpengine/news/spanish-eurovision-singer-urged-nul-point-162033801.html?orig_host_hdr=news.yahoo.com&.intl=US&.lang=en-US

Should we be worried by this?
Report five leaves left May 24, 2012 6:51 PM BST
Not a positive for sure.
Hard to know how seriously to take it tho, as early on in the article they suggested it was a joke....and ofc journo's would never cobble together a story from some jokey comments taken out of context ;)
Report MilanBarosh May 24, 2012 7:00 PM BST
perhaps she will sing her heart out and then hold the mic to her @rse and fart Laugh
Report popking May 24, 2012 7:00 PM BST
"Stories" of this ilk appear every year.  I'm sure there was one about Azerbaijan last year - the EBU would step in to help if required.
Report five leaves left May 24, 2012 7:15 PM BST
I also wonder how expensive it actually is to stage.
Spain must have plenty of arenas aleady that could stage it, plus wouldn't it be a boost to tourism?
Report popking May 24, 2012 7:17 PM BST
Yep, it's a major boon for the tourist industry.  Ireland did well out of it in the years they kept winning, but every year there was a joke about them not being able to afford to host it.
Report Henry VIII May 24, 2012 10:35 PM BST
I read somewhere that it was between about 15 - 30 million depending on how much the host wants to splash out. I'd imagine that Azerbaijan in building a new building - the Crystal Hall - will have spent much more than that.
Report stu May 24, 2012 10:36 PM BST
waste of money - show looks like they spent a few hundred this year. Sack the director.
Report hemsby May 25, 2012 2:29 AM BST
Astounded Spain's price has drifted after the draw.Just can't see how it has less chance now than before.Sweden before it,buffered by the Turkish nonsense,looks fine to me.I know some good judges rate Serbia,and it has a plum draw,but personally I think it's awful ...I just don't see this appealing to anyone in the west side of the continent.
Report jack12321 May 25, 2012 8:20 AM BST
Who is selling Spain? All of us seem to be backing Silly
Report bexley May 25, 2012 8:54 AM BST
Spain told not to win eurovision story most popular read news story on BBC website
Report five leaves left May 25, 2012 11:39 AM BST
It must be a quiet news day Grin

Until it's cleared up at the press conference tho, it must remain a slight worry.

As for who is selling? Since the shortening of Sweden and Serbia and more strangley the UK, most of those in the top dozen or so in the market have drifted.
Spain isn't out of line with that general drift.
Report jack12321 May 25, 2012 11:52 AM BST
The Spain being told not to win story being so widely read I'd argue is excellent publicity tbh, anything that gets a name of a country into people's heads at this stage is likely to be beneficial, especially if it is cleared up soon
Report bexley May 25, 2012 12:09 PM BST

May 25, 2012 -- 11:52AM, jack12321 wrote:


The Spain being told not to win story being so widely read I'd argue is excellent publicity tbh, anything that gets a name of a country into people's heads at this stage is likely to be beneficial, especially if it is cleared up soon


Never been too fussed about the televote aspect in fact as you say it may be beneficial. Its the behind the scenes jury instructions that concern me, the kind that got Italy the runaway jury win last year, in reverse

Report stu May 25, 2012 12:17 PM BST
Would seem a little more dodgy to try and pursuade juries to be harsher, rather than kinder, on a specific entry. But not impossible of course...
Report TennisMan66 May 25, 2012 1:58 PM BST
Breathe easy boys, she's in it to win it:

"It was mentioned by some media that Spanish Television warned Pastora not to win as they wouldn't be able to host the competition next year, but Pastora denied this and assured that Spanish Television is willing to win, just like any other participant broadcaster: "We're here to win and TVE would be honoured to be able to host the contest next year!"

http://www.eurovision.tv/page/news?id=spain_second_press_conference&source=twitter&medium=social&campaign=Twitter
Report five leaves left May 25, 2012 2:01 PM BST
GrinGrinGrinGrinGrinGrinGrinGrinGrinGrin
Report bexley May 25, 2012 2:22 PM BST
Lying biatch.....
Report five leaves left May 25, 2012 2:29 PM BST
you've laid off I take it Bex Silly
Report stu May 25, 2012 2:42 PM BST
Good extra publicity for them I guess...hmmmm.
Report bexley May 25, 2012 2:55 PM BST
No I'm still up to my neck in Spain. Her reply still rings to me as the politically correct answer for today
Report goobarr May 25, 2012 3:02 PM BST
anyone notice how the serb song starts - it sounds like he's singing about doggie poo Grin
Report TennisMan66 May 25, 2012 3:20 PM BST
From All Kinds of Everything:

"Spain - gorgeous ballad from Pastora. Stands out greatly against Turkey. We really do get a far better mix and contrast of songs in the latter half of the draw than the beginning and this could really benefit Spain. Pastora is in long pale blue floaty dress. Her long high note is totally stunning. and the yellow/orange lighting really helps build this song to it's terrific climax. Should put Spain in top 5 . Great reaction in press centre."
Report Orlaith May 25, 2012 4:37 PM BST
Spain topped the Press vote today for what it's worth- beating Sweden and Turkey/Azerbaijan home crowd.
Report Orlaith May 25, 2012 4:37 PM BST
Spain topped the Press vote today for what it's worth- beating Sweden and Turkey/Azerbaijan home crowd.
Report five leaves left May 25, 2012 4:44 PM BST
Cheers Orlaith.

Lets hope the juries follow suit.

Is there a table of the full results?
Report Orlaith May 25, 2012 4:53 PM BST
https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/547270_10150830214198091_2083819642_n.jpg

Quite a comfortable lead- Wouldn't be too shocked if the jury voting was something like this (minues Turkey and Azerbaijan being so high)
Report stu May 25, 2012 4:58 PM BST
Can anyone recall how high were Austria on that vote last year?
Report five leaves left May 25, 2012 5:04 PM BST
Cheers Orlaith.

Not great from memory stu. I'll check on AKOE for the semi final poll
Report five leaves left May 25, 2012 5:05 PM BST
Serbia so low is a surprise and encouraging
Report five leaves left May 25, 2012 5:07 PM BST
It's the type of dirge that the journos usually go for. Like the Israeli song a couple of years back
Report five leaves left May 25, 2012 5:09 PM BST
Andrew on AKOE

Spain WOW I was in tears at the end of this. Big stand out now for Spain, could win.
Report five leaves left May 25, 2012 5:12 PM BST
austria was ranked 6th for it's semi final

http://akoe07.livejournal.com/320074.html
Report five leaves left May 25, 2012 5:15 PM BST
Can't find the final poll on there, or remember one tbh.
Report MilanBarosh May 25, 2012 5:26 PM BST
what you have to factor in with the 'press' vote is 90% are gay and stupid. Laugh
Report stu May 25, 2012 5:27 PM BST
Same as the real voters then? Grin
Report TennisMan66 May 25, 2012 5:42 PM BST
Spain 6/1 with Bwin to top the Big 5 table?!
Report MilanBarosh May 25, 2012 5:47 PM BST
that's fair tennisman...unfortunately i happen to think France have the better singer & better song...so no good for me but it's good of you to post for Spain fans...good luck.
Report MilanBarosh May 25, 2012 5:49 PM BST
i'd say maybe 90% stupid but perhaps only 50% gay Sad
Report hemsby May 25, 2012 7:15 PM BST
Just watched the first dress rehearsal on YouTube .I like the Titanic pose,and the wind effect after the big note is hit near the end.Provided she repeats that,a high jury vote seems extremely likely,and fingers crossed that "moment" helps provide the required tele vote.
Report five leaves left May 25, 2012 7:36 PM BST
If she tops the jury vote by some way, then 6th or 7th could be enough in the pv and plenty of inferior ballads have managed to get that high.
I've not seen it yet. Will check it out
Report five leaves left May 25, 2012 7:40 PM BST
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6NEsqSvcKo

I hope she keeps the hair tied back
Report five leaves left May 25, 2012 7:42 PM BST
Quite a moment when she hits the big note.
Report bexley May 25, 2012 7:43 PM BST
hmm back to falling asleep at the start unfortunately, rest awesome but I expected this reaction here ie growing as people get to hear her perform and the vocal gymnastics wow people. Back to plan A lay after she performs
Report popking May 25, 2012 7:46 PM BST
The beginning was (is?) a bit pedestrian still, but if she really can wow the juries, it may only need a low top 10 televote to mount a serious challenge.  Remember how high Denmark got last year from a very low televote?  5th IIRC.
Report bexley May 25, 2012 7:53 PM BST
I want to believe but mainly because its a huge green. I think thats possibly clouding my judgement because it doing well would be such a huge boost to my trading position. The draw however is making me believe somewhat about the televote.

Guess i'll lay some if thats possible when the crowd scream and cheer as if she's scored the winning world cup final goal and keep a chunk so I'm still really pleased if she does go on to win Cool
Report TennisMan66 May 25, 2012 8:10 PM BST
Apparently that press room poll is useless due to the number of Spanish journos making up the press pack and skewing the numbers. Shame, it had me excited.
Report popking May 25, 2012 8:12 PM BST
I would not be so sure about that Tennis.  If that came from AKOE, that specific blogger has been quite negative about Spain's chances in general and has been known to twist the odd thing to suit his own agenda.
Report TennisMan66 May 25, 2012 8:27 PM BST
Yes, that's where I read it. Thanks for the advice, I hope AKOE is wrong. SJ are pickum UK and Spain matchbet?!
Report five leaves left May 25, 2012 10:13 PM BST
^^^^

"It was mentioned by some media that Spanish Television warned Pastora not to win as they wouldn't be able to host the competition next year, but Pastora denied this and assured that Spanish Television is willing to win, just like any other participant broadcaster: "We're here to win and TVE would be honoured to be able to host the contest next year!"

http://www.eurovision.tv/page/news?id=spain_second_press_conference&source=twitter&medium=social&campaign=Twitter
Report mugptr May 26, 2012 12:56 AM BST
Who are the mugs holding this price up , yes she may not win , but tbh it's not a 30+ gamble , .
Sweden should win , but choke on a snowflake etc it's game on.

Spain against uk is the bet of the year on specials ,

Please don't let this haunt me lol
Report TennisMan66 May 26, 2012 10:40 AM BST
Everyone reporting the 'please don't win' joke as fact and totally ignoring Pastora's press conference denial yesterday. This definitely won't help her chances - could it prove the difference between top 4 and top 10? If the national presenters mention that Spain don't want to win in the 1min introduction to the song tonight it will surely have a negative impact.
Report five leaves left May 26, 2012 11:14 AM BST
Only the lazy British press Tennis with any luck who are uttery clueless when it comes to Eurovision

Having a big green on Germany too by bigger worry is Angela Merkel's comments being reported today that she has no sympathy for those struggling due to the economic situation in Greece.
Report five leaves left May 26, 2012 11:20 AM BST
my* ffs
Report jack12321 May 26, 2012 11:26 AM BST
why does she have to say that today ffs Cry
Report MilanBarosh May 26, 2012 11:35 AM BST
the German is just so boring and it's sung by a doorway dweller too...there's more chance of it snowing in Baku than the German winning imo.
nothing personal chaps, that's just the way i see the German entry...good luck.
Report seanvice May 26, 2012 11:54 AM BST
If people think all this free publicity for Spain is BAD for her they must be crazy!!

The more people that are aware of her and the song the better, people will now be actively looking out for the song, for instance from having no chance of getting any UK televotes I wouldnt be shocked if shes in the top 4 with us now.
Report MilanBarosh May 26, 2012 11:55 AM BST
the Spain fans should not use the latest setback as an excuse for defeat imo...Spain was never gunna win this for three reasons which i posted a while back...

1.it's a ballad
2.it's in Spanish
3.Pastora is not attractive enough.

as i've said above, nothing personal fellas, it's my opinion of the Spanish entry...which seems to hold the same value as the Greek drachma Laugh
Report bexley May 26, 2012 11:58 AM BST

May 26, 2012 -- 11:54AM, seanvice wrote:


If people think all this free publicity for Spain is BAD for her they must be crazy!!The more people that are aware of her and the song the better, people will now be actively looking out for the song, for instance from having no chance of getting any UK televotes I wouldnt be shocked if shes in the top 4 with us now.


Agreed. The subsequent denial was obviously the right thing to do, however I still have nagging doubts about some impact on the mindset of the juries

Report bexley May 26, 2012 12:01 PM BST
and sorry off topic but since Sean was on just a while ago - I can't believe you rate Macedonia so highly as a song. Sometimes ofc we exaggerate for effect but honestly its utter crap probably my 24th fav song left in Silly
Report seanvice May 26, 2012 12:12 PM BST
haha I think I'm on my own on it. But for me the song packs a real punch, has impact, it sung really well, has a catchy chorus, a wow moment with the scream at the end.

I do very much worry about it getting any points in western Europe but I really think this is going to get a lot of points in the East.

It would sneak into my favorite 10 songs of the final.
Report bexley May 26, 2012 12:15 PM BST
The thing is you are not alone Sean thats what surprises me most - well maybe alone as far as top 3 as per your competition entry.

I wish you well with it, just not for winning perhaps but other markets, yes Wink
Report seanvice May 26, 2012 12:20 PM BST
I dont really think its guna be top 3! Just put it in for a bit of fun. I'm hopeful it can get into 9th or 10th and win me a fair sum.

Just backed Spain top 4 and top big 5 (even tho I adore the Italian song) there does seem to be a real buzz for it among those in Baku. Televote prediction for it is very hard to call tho.
Report five leaves left May 26, 2012 12:22 PM BST
I'd agree about your Spanish comments sean.
The Irish used to say the same thing every year, but kept winning and in the end had to send a singing turkey to ensure defeat.
Report stu May 26, 2012 2:54 PM BST
Could be some excellent reverse psychology at work now - people hear, 'don't want to win', then see and hear an amazing performance - huge standout contrast effect. 'We must vote for her, she was the best' etc....
Report bexley May 26, 2012 3:33 PM BST
Hype is starting to build. I can now remarkably lay Spain for a profit but too early yet... Cool That didn't seem likely just two days ago.
Report differentdrum May 26, 2012 3:43 PM BST
If the markets are to be believed there will be some very disappointed people tonight. Spain have a poor record and this tosh isn't going to improve it - even in a very poor year will be surprised to see it in the ten let alone winning. In the big 5 market Italy and UK have far better songs so it's money down the drain there as well - similar story for the German entry.
Report StadiumStatus May 26, 2012 4:01 PM BST
I cant believe there are 100+ replies in a thread thats hyping up the chances of a dreary song that wont even finish in the top 10. This is Austria 2011 all over again.
Report JoseMourinho May 26, 2012 4:14 PM BST
Sounds nice - good top 5 bet; Italy & Spain look like the only decent bets - Sweden is a plausible winner - the rest is garbage.
Report bexley May 26, 2012 4:23 PM BST
Running order comment - looks very likely to me Spain has not won the jury vote. Sorry guys
Report five leaves left May 26, 2012 4:35 PM BST
What in particular makes you think that Bex?

They have so few natural allies. Much like Germany, that it strikes me as impossible to say.
Report popking May 26, 2012 4:36 PM BST
My first reaction was to say it looks bad for Spain, but because their results over the past few years have not been great so there's only limited recent data to go on.  Their jury votes could come from anywhere for the right song.
Report five leaves left May 26, 2012 4:37 PM BST
Just looking at when they did win in 1968 & 9. A very differnt voting system, but both times high marks from Germany and one of the years Italy.
They both vote late.
Report bexley May 26, 2012 4:39 PM BST
It has fewer natural allies yes so it could be misleading bu those it doeas have are out early.

There appear to be 2 or 3 possibles to me in the 'make it close game' but Spain nope.

All in good faith ofc, I will understand that people might and probably should be extremely wary of conclusions from this voting algorithm
Report bexley May 26, 2012 4:40 PM BST
and wary of conclusions from me also Wink
Report hemsby May 26, 2012 4:43 PM BST
Would have hoped to see Portugal later than 25? Is France early also bad news?
Report five leaves left May 26, 2012 4:45 PM BST
Just looking at 1968. I think I've sussed the system.
Each country has 10pts to allocate.
Germany gave 6pts to Spain and 2pts to 2 other countries. Italy gave them 3 pts. Their jt top mark.

Making assumptions by going back over 50 years is hardly an exact science tho ;)
Report popking May 26, 2012 4:45 PM BST
It depends whether you assume that the winner is disguised until as late as possible.  I know that's the theory about Italy last year.  But...maybe they are just trying to keep it as close as possible throughout, with the lead changing hands numerous times?
Report MilanBarosh May 26, 2012 6:17 PM BST
they will make it as dramatic as possible, that's for certain...look at the 'golden ticket' b0ll0x...they say the qualifying countries will be announced randomly, yet they purposely chose Ireland & Turkey to get the best possible reaction for all.
Report stu May 27, 2012 1:19 PM BST
So...awesome vocal performance, and what do we think of the result? Ok, didn't win or top 5, but managed top 10 for a country that is usually no-where near and basically has no natural allies. Plus, I'm not sure her performance was perfectly pitched - my missus comment was, yes she's awesome but could have done with some slight toning down and a little less of a 'blast' performance.

Interesting also that UK were one of it's biggest friends with 8 points. Was never winning this though was it? Sad
Report five leaves left May 27, 2012 2:05 PM BST
For me the main problem with the performance last night was the lack of close-ups.
I know plenty on here thought she looked constipated and the more longshots the better, but for me her ability to really emote and sell a song was one of the things that drew me to it in the 1st place.

Ultimately though I think we can now safely say that these western style 'power ballads' are a thing of the past when it comes to Eurovision. The west has moved on.

It's only the Eastern 'dirges' that can still do well, as we saw with both Serbia & Azer last night.
Or a rather leftfield type ballad like Albania.

Celine Dion has a lot to answer for.
Report stu May 27, 2012 2:26 PM BST
Yep would pretty much agree. Although on the closeups issue I wasn't a huge fan of her makeover either - far too harsh! Should have gone with a softer lusher look, which would have avoided the consipated comparisons, lol
Report popking May 27, 2012 3:03 PM BST
I think the biggest problems were the ones I discussed, not in English, slightly harsh looking and a lack of natural diaspora.

There have been other slightly old fashioned female power ballads do well even in recent years, but they have been softer and in english (or at least partly).

At some point check out the following songs:

Jessica Garlick - Come Back (3rd for UK in 2002)
Lisa Andreas - Stronger Every Minute (5th for Cyprus in 2004)
Chiara - Angel (2nd for Malta in 2005)
Shiri Maimon - The Silence That Remains (4th for Israel in 2005)
Maria Haukaas Storeng - Hold On Be Strong (5th for Norway in 2008)
Yohanna - Is It True (2nd for Iceland in 2009)
Jade Ewan - It's My Time (5th for UK in 2009)
Report stu May 27, 2012 5:49 PM BST
Interesting that quite a few of those were from non-diaspora type countries too.
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