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GeorgeBrush
13 Nov 11 01:02
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Date Joined: 16 Jun 02
| Topic/replies: 60,779 | Blogger: GeorgeBrush's blog
Cut and paste from tomorrow's paper. They not been wrong yet

TEEN sensation Janet Devlin has aced every X Factor vote so far, the Daily Star Sunday can reveal.
The 16-year-old from Northern Ireland – who has been criticised for occasionally stumbling performances – is still a hit with viewers.
Janet polled as much as a quarter of the vote in some weeks.
And overall, one in five of all votes cast so far have been for her.
X Factor bosses were due to reinstate a rival last night in a bid to give Janet a challenge.
One of her strongest opponents – madcap Johnny Robinson – was booted off
last week after falling into the bottom three.
In earlier weeks he had polled well, fuelling suspicions he was given the hated fi rst slot on last week’s show to nobble him before he caused an upset.
Johnny, 45, came second in weeks two and three of the votes, with axed band The Risk bagging second spot in week one.
Of the remaining contestants, only scouser Marcus Collins, has emerged as a challenger to Janet – after bagging 17% of last week’s votes.
A show insider revealed the details last night as viewers voted to give a second chance to one of the four acts axed by judges in the first live show. The source
said: “Whoever it is will have their work cut out to reel in Janet’s support.”
Pause Switch to Standard View Daily Star - janet tops vote every week
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Report seebee November 13, 2011 12:35 PM GMT
Monitoring twitter for one reality show is bad enough! Five hours of about 40 different tabs with graphs, sentiments, and trending tools are more than enough for me!

Marmite might cause itchy fingers, but Misha would be - in my opinion - the biggest marmite in there. And she only polled 8,000.

I've not found the sentiment tools to be particularly useful. Without getting into the semantics of wicked, well bad, etc, on a very basic level it can't separate out tweets like "I love Marcus, but craig is going to win".

Last night was the first serious attempt to look at it, and to be honest, not sure I could face doing it again given the amount of work and time it took. Perhaps if Misha ends up bottom 2 I will as then it might be giving a clear indication of what is going on, but it could be way off. Won't really know until tonight.

With 'to win' tweets, I'm not sure if checking twitter for those alone gives the whole picture. Lots of people will tweet about contestants without framing their tweets in those sorts of terms - which is why I was looking at volume as well as sentiment, etc. and using brand tracking sites too, but as I said no idea how accurate any of it will be.

In terms of numbers, Janet and Marcus were mid 12k, Little Mix were on 10k, slightly ahead of Craig, and Misha brought up the rear on 8k. Tab with Amelia and kitty froze and crashed, so no reliable numbers on them.
Report George Bailey November 13, 2011 12:40 PM GMT
Misha is a lower grade marmite than janet though so I would expect fewer tweets. GB saw some research on AI that showed no correlation between volume and outcome. Don't know where though.
Report seebee November 13, 2011 12:48 PM GMT
I'm first to hold my hands up and say I've no idea if any of this will be representative of how people vote. I always look at the stats from the rest of you all, and try to make decisions based on those and my own gut instincts, and appreciate everyone else doing it. Just decided this week to have a go myself, to see what I could find on twitter. Who knew there were so many analytic tools out there?

Of course, what we really need is someone who can write code and use the twitter api to really mine the data. ExcitedConfused
Report Dizzy42 November 13, 2011 12:49 PM GMT
Two good posts 6G - agree with all of those points... Shaping up to be a two horse race.
Report five leaves left November 13, 2011 12:54 PM GMT
To win tweets have always worked fine for me, but I usually only use them for the final and semi.

My normal stats are a snapshot over a short period where I read every tweet. For me the only truly accurate method.

Using that method Janet has always struggled.

The only assumptions I can make form that finding is that

1. Her vote is mostly regional
2. Her vote is mostly young, as I tend to look quite late. Around 11. Even later last night as twitter search was playing up
Report seebee November 13, 2011 1:12 PM GMT
Hi Five, Why do you think that makes her vote regional? Are you searching in specific geographic areas? I'm pretty sure she probably does have a decent regional vote, but not sure why that wouldn't show up on your twitter stats?

I'd certainly agree she has a young vote, saw a lot of tweets last night from teenagers, and a lot of people wishing her happy birthday too.
Report George Bailey November 13, 2011 1:13 PM GMT

Nov 13, 2011 -- 7:12AM, seebee wrote:


Hi Five, Why do you think that makes her vote regional? Are you searching in specific geographic areas? I'm pretty sure she probably does have a decent regional vote, but not sure why that wouldn't show up on your twitter stats? I'd certainly agree she has a young vote, saw a lot of tweets last night from teenagers, and a lot of people wishing her happy birthday too.


an advanced twitter search round dublin/omagh shows noting.

Report George Bailey November 13, 2011 1:14 PM GMT
nothing
Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 1:14 PM GMT
I would go the other way and suggest the Janet vote is old gits
Report seebee November 13, 2011 1:24 PM GMT
I think she's getting votes from every demographic, you can certainly see the appeal to mums, grans and teens with her wholesome nature.
I think she's got the support that will get her to the final, but at this stage don't think she'll win it. Which is why she was the first one I went red on, seemed like too low a price not to oppose given the way the show plays out. Might change my mind in a week or two, but happy to go red and do a bit of trading as and when - it would be rude not to.
Report seebee November 13, 2011 1:26 PM GMT
GB, are you using nearby tweets?
Report five leaves left November 13, 2011 1:34 PM GMT
I'm not using nearby tweets no seebee.

All I'm saying is I don't use tools as I don't trust them.

'Janet to win' and 'anyone but Janet to win' would both show up as positive on these tools I suspect.

As I said I just read the tweets posted after the show and Janet always struggles in terms of numbers of genuinely positive tweets.
I the bottom half evey single week.

But if you believe the Star, which I do, she's polling very well.

I don't see any other explaination other than a regional vote plus a young vote, who have all gone to bed when I check.
Plus maybe a gran vote who don't use the net. Though she strikes me as too marmite and niche for most pensioners/
Report five leaves left November 13, 2011 1:35 PM GMT
I have had her in the bottom half every single week* that should read
Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 1:36 PM GMT
I have had her in the bottom half every single week.  Lucky old you Laugh
Report Dizzy42 November 13, 2011 1:38 PM GMT
FLL - I think the grannie vote for Janet could be quite significant.  The 'little girl lost' / Irish pixie thing would go down quite well with them I'd have thought...  Sweet 16/17 year old, singing dull old inoffensive ballads - right up their street.
Report five leaves left November 13, 2011 1:38 PM GMT
lol, she's not for me mate.

I like a nice ginger, but give me Alice from BOT's or Aliona on SCD above this annoying cold fish.
Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 1:41 PM GMT
You could warm her up Laugh  Actually I thought she was looking alright last week
Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 1:42 PM GMT
I agree Dizzy. More likely than youngster vote. Could be the gypo demographic in their caravans too Laugh
Report five leaves left November 13, 2011 1:43 PM GMT
Oh gawd, not another one for your cellar CryLaugh
Report five leaves left November 13, 2011 1:44 PM GMT
I hope you've released the lovely Lucie now.
Report budgiebird. November 13, 2011 1:45 PM GMT
I can see that her core support will be even more behind her when they see the judges trying to change her and see Janet take a principled stand to resist change and be true to herself, rather than change in a shallow attempt to win the show. Could cause those die-hard fans to multi-vote.
Report seebee November 13, 2011 1:47 PM GMT
And don't forget the people who buy Eva Cassidy/Katharine Jenkins/Katie Melua albums. That's a deliberately wide range in terms of artists, but I'd certainly group them together, even Subo. They sell easy listening, xmas albums, and are always around. Daytime tv fodder.
Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 1:49 PM GMT
I keep having to tighten Lucie's manacles as she's lost so much weight. But still rather have her than Janet
Report alfie46 November 13, 2011 1:51 PM GMT
give her some more nutrition GB
Report five leaves left November 13, 2011 1:51 PM GMT
My mums a pensioner and can't stand her, but only likes Cassidy of those you mention.

She's yet another Marcus fan. Also likes the minxes and Craig.
Report five leaves left November 13, 2011 1:53 PM GMT
Craig does predictable safe ballads much better than Janet imo
Report seebee November 13, 2011 2:22 PM GMT
Looks like they really are fans in the true sense of the word...

@tweetjlt @DAZM4N_LCFC @janetjealousy make that 120 votes from me, just threw in a few more before switching my phone off ;)
1 hour ago
Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 2:36 PM GMT

Nov 13, 2011 -- 7:51AM, alfie46 wrote:


give her some more nutrition GB


Laugh

Report alfie46 November 13, 2011 2:37 PM GMT
Another worried fan
Report johnnyrant November 13, 2011 2:38 PM GMT
Craig does predictable safe ballads much better than Janet imo

Surely not last night, fig. That was tuneless dirge from Craig. That is up against a back catalogue of tuneless dirge bar the vaguely acceptable Jar Of Hearts. He has a far more irritating singing style than anyone else in the competition for me. He reminds me of Ronan Keating - he doesn't sing properly, he sings from his throat - reminds me of Vic Reeves singing in a club style. Atrocious.
Janet, by comparison, sang like an angel last night. Cowell, if on a rare honest day, might have said, 'that was world class' but instead Barlow labelled her boring. Farcical statement given the dullness of Craig's horrific warbling, Marcus's feeble Bruno Mars impression, and yet more tortuous rapping from cliched urban diva Misha.
Report alfie46 November 13, 2011 2:38 PM GMT
Laugh
Report alfie46 November 13, 2011 2:42 PM GMT
World class......>.........,................>........................Boring
                                                            X
Report five leaves left November 13, 2011 2:47 PM GMT
I agree last night she was better than Craig jr, but overall he's been the much more consistent safe ballad singer.
Report johnnyrant November 13, 2011 2:56 PM GMT
That's largely cos he has been given the opportunity to sing boring, safe ballads, fig, every week even his club classic effort had far more ballad about it than dance. He has barely budged from his very limited comfort zone, though you wouldn't know it given the judges' consistent ramps.
Report strikeitrichy November 13, 2011 3:36 PM GMT
How can you come top of the votes , it you have NOT had one top performance since on the show & its a singing competition?
Report George Bailey November 13, 2011 3:44 PM GMT
You come top because you have a big loyal core vote who will vote for you however bad you get. In fact vote more the worse you get as more votes proves their devotion.
Report five leaves left November 13, 2011 3:45 PM GMT
You could be talking about Aaron there GB2
Report attitude adjuster November 13, 2011 3:45 PM GMT
Plain
Report five leaves left November 13, 2011 3:46 PM GMT
snap aa.
Report George Bailey November 13, 2011 3:47 PM GMT
exactly fll.GB and I saying just that on another thread. Difference is the GBP WILL decide this one not the nutters.
Report George Bailey November 13, 2011 3:49 PM GMT
You ain't worried about that factor surely fll?
Report Dizzy42 November 13, 2011 3:54 PM GMT
FLL - surely the grannie vote more likely to go to a sweet and innocent young girl rather than an openly gay biscuit muncher?!
Report five leaves left November 13, 2011 3:58 PM GMT
I've no idea Dizzy. Maybe the grans will prefer 4 sweet young girls ;)

..and no GB2. I'm not worried that even if Janet gains victim like status on the forums, it will make a jot of difference to the result.
Report Cider November 13, 2011 4:03 PM GMT
Janet's true chances are lower single figures in percentage terms. There's no way she wins the mass vote, imo.
Report George Bailey November 13, 2011 4:12 PM GMT
I have been genuinely surprised at how tailed off janet has been in my stats given her back story/pimpage. Bottom line is the GBP just won't have her whining in what is still a singing contest for them. Not had a cent on her and sometimes you just have to go with your judgement.
Report TheMadness November 13, 2011 4:28 PM GMT
She's Vickers with Eoghans granny appeal.
Report five leaves left November 13, 2011 4:29 PM GMT
Will be 3rd or 4th then.
Report squares November 13, 2011 5:04 PM GMT
Not much anyone can do about her whining imho Plain
Report George Bailey November 13, 2011 5:24 PM GMT
mute button squares?
Report jack12321 November 13, 2011 5:53 PM GMT
Oh wow, only just seen this Plain

Never really believed my stats having her way out in front.....
Report johnnyrant November 13, 2011 6:02 PM GMT
shouldn't that read, 'not much anyone can do about her winning'?

The topsy-turvy way in which this series is progressing, I am far from convinced they'll continue with the de-ramping of Janet. I think they use each week to test out each contestant's vote, and see by how much they can sway it, also with a view to trying to manage the eliminations.
Why look to kick out the girl voters like and keep in the one the GBP are giving a universal thumbs down to? Doesn't make much sense, unless they want to sort out the weakest finalists possible as competition for Little Mix, making it far easier for LM to win the series.
Report George Bailey November 13, 2011 6:25 PM GMT

Nov 13, 2011 -- 11:53AM, jack12321 wrote:


Oh wow, only just seen this Never really believed my stats having her way out in front.....


Bizarre jack as I have her rock bottom by a country mile..including on twitter. I just can't find the love for her.

Report ajchrisbro November 13, 2011 6:40 PM GMT
she wont top the vote this week NAP
Report Dizzy42 November 13, 2011 6:43 PM GMT
Agree AJ - but on this evidence she's probably still 2nd, and will be in the competition for a while longer yet.

Will be interesting to see the long-term impact of Amelia's return on her vote...
Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 6:55 PM GMT

Nov 13, 2011 -- 11:53AM, jack12321 wrote:


Oh wow, only just seen this Never really believed my stats having her way out in front.....


Your stats look everymore impressive. Please tell Antony Gormley where you get them from Laugh

Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 6:56 PM GMT

Nov 13, 2011 -- 12:25PM, George Bailey wrote:


Nov 13, 2011 --  5:53PM, jack12321 wrote:Oh wow, only just seen this Never really believed my stats having her way out in front.....Bizarre jack as I have her rock bottom by a country mile..including on twitter. I just can't find the love for her.


Go to bottom of the class Bails Wink

Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 6:57 PM GMT

Nov 13, 2011 -- 12:40PM, ajchrisbro wrote:


she wont top the vote this week NAP


Prolly right aj, but teen**** will be a 1 week wonder in that respect

Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 6:58 PM GMT

Nov 13, 2011 -- 12:43PM, Dizzy42 wrote:


Agree AJ - but on this evidence she's probably still 2nd, and will be in the competition for a while longer yet.Will be interesting to see the long-term impact of Amelia's return on her vote...


Seems a loyal following. Probably none whatsoever

Report George Bailey November 13, 2011 7:12 PM GMT

Nov 13, 2011 -- 12:56PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:


Nov 13, 2011 --  6:25PM, George Bailey wrote:Nov 13, 2011 --  5:53PM, jack12321 wrote:Oh wow, only just seen this Never really believed my stats having her way out in front.....Bizarre jack as I have her rock bottom by a country mile..including on twitter. I just can't find the love for her.Go to bottom of the class Bails


shall I back her then GB? Laugh My method comes into its own on the straight choice eviction like BB and the last 4 and onwards of this.  Like I said before I'm happy that for now it highlights longer term positions e.g. janet is marmite and can't win. still if jack is picking up the short term love for her hats off to him...the cheat way is the polls online that mirror the Star news.

Report Dizzy42 November 13, 2011 7:14 PM GMT
GB2 - but the polls online have consistently had Janet in front in every week bar one (last week when Marcus took the lead for the first time).  So surely that is long term support?
Report George Bailey November 13, 2011 7:19 PM GMT
But she can't win Dizzy so what does that tell us? She has a core long term support just like aaron but this ain't BB. the dweebs can't decide this. repeating what I/others have said elsewhere but maybe worth repeating.
Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 7:21 PM GMT
I agree with Bails, just saying jack must be doing summat right to have her top. But I think it's an amalgam of polls and yt
Report George Bailey November 13, 2011 7:22 PM GMT
Or put another way as others drop out do their fans start voting for janet? can't see it. The votes she has now is the votes she will have in the final with a smallish increase imo. marmite never wins the multi watched shows and I janet is more marmite than a jedward or wagner.
Report George Bailey November 13, 2011 7:23 PM GMT
Yeah GB think so telly mix is getting it right for her.
Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 7:25 PM GMT
She's slightly less marmite than Waggy tbf Laugh  In fact in this series both Kitty and Misha are more marmite
Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 7:25 PM GMT
But I agree, this looks Marcus's to lose. Or to be massively deramped
Report attitude adjuster November 13, 2011 7:28 PM GMT
Of course she can win

Just because you say the same thing every week doesn't make it a fact.

You told us Sophie was a 7/2 shot..wrong.
You told us Harry was a 100/1 shot to go in a 4 way eviction..wrong.
You thought Aaron was value to go that night ...wrong
You told us Harry would flip flop with Aaron in the outright..wrong.
You laughed at the polls which had never had Aaron anything less than first by 10%...wrong.

You work hard,you get some good calls but words such as "can't win","the dweebs can't decide this" etc
leave you open to ridicule.
Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 7:30 PM GMT
Less marmite than I imagined if you look at the tvpolls 'least fav'
Report rooneyronaldo08 November 13, 2011 7:36 PM GMT
people do not vote for "least fav" or who to get eliminated in x factor
Report Cider November 13, 2011 7:37 PM GMT
I stated Alex wouldn't win tbf, aa Laugh
I was very sure about that and encouraged my post to be quoted if I was wrong.

I don't mind confident posts.

Multiple repetition is a problem tho Wink
Report George Bailey November 13, 2011 7:40 PM GMT

Nov 13, 2011 -- 1:28PM, attitude adjuster wrote:


Of course she can winJust because you say the same thing every week doesn't make it a fact.You told us Sophie was a 7/2 shot..wrong.You told us Harry was a 100/1 shot to go in a 4 way eviction..wrong.You thought Aaron was value to go that night ...wrongYou told us Harry would flip flop with Aaron in the outright..wrong.You laughed at the polls which had never had Aaron anything less than first by 10%...wrong.You work hard,you get some good calls but words such as "can't win","the dweebs can't decide this" etcleave you open to ridicule.


If you are saying the dweebs can win this for her with 15 million viewers in the final then you are the one open to ridicule imo

Report rooneyronaldo08 November 13, 2011 7:42 PM GMT
you say janet can't possibly win despite topping the votes every week.....yet you said sophie is a 7/2 shot after the first week.

janet > sophie in EVERY single department. sophie is way below even a poor mans janet
Report George Bailey November 13, 2011 7:49 PM GMT
and aa if you were going to be fair then spend some time trawling ALL my posts and list the good ones not just some patronising throwaway line about "some good cslls". recent ones..the Haley train on which you are silent...first on here to mention Lorraine chase when she was at 16/1 now a lot lower.  Re all the BB you post I got it wrong re the dweebs v GBP vote...some crime. Sophie I flagged up after about 5 mins of airtime...some you win some you lose. Its a forum so back off and stop getting personal.
Report George Bailey November 13, 2011 7:50 PM GMT
sorry chelsee train I meant..freudian slip Laugh tho haley was a good shout as well
Report Cider November 13, 2011 7:55 PM GMT
There is some credence to what aa wrote, GB2.

There's a balance with stating opion, and bombarding threads with never-ending reptition of the same thing. Just an observation. You have been a welcome addition to the specials regs (and that isn't meant to be patronising).

When is Chompy back btw Confused
Report George Bailey November 13, 2011 7:59 PM GMT
OK I will take the advice from you Cider. My motives are never anything less than noble though.
Report George Bailey November 13, 2011 8:00 PM GMT
Yeah why doesn't chompy get stick then he's the master of the cutting one liner Laugh
Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 8:01 PM GMT
Ironically, Chomps had greened up on Aaron
Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 8:02 PM GMT
Still prolly shat himself when he say Jay steaming through the ranks
Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 8:02 PM GMT
saw
Report George Bailey November 13, 2011 8:03 PM GMT
"jay steaming" sounds about right....
Report Cider November 13, 2011 8:03 PM GMT
Yes our new resident BB expert (in his own opinion) laid the winner at 6.
Report jack12321 November 13, 2011 11:27 PM GMT
Out of curiousity, is this actually on the Star website? Confused I can't find it anywhere...

Or else can someone confirm they read it in the actual paper today? Where did you get this from GB Shocked
Report five leaves left November 13, 2011 11:31 PM GMT
othh confirmed it jack.

That's good enough for me.
Report jack12321 November 13, 2011 11:34 PM GMT
Ah thanks fll Happy just a bit surprised there was no sign of it online, thought they'd be shouting it from the rooftops
Report five leaves left November 13, 2011 11:35 PM GMT
As for GB2. I enjoy his posts.

It would be a very dreary place if every post was an in depth discussion of a certain contestants percentage chance of winning.

There's a place for that, but also a place for the more knock about stuff.
Report five leaves left November 13, 2011 11:37 PM GMT
Yep, I assume it was just in the paper.

Last time I bought the paper online I bought the worng days, so won't be doing that again Laugh and have faith in othh.
Report johnnyrant November 13, 2011 11:38 PM GMT
Just waiting for the D.Star Strictly leak now that says Russell has topped the vote every week Grin
Report rooneyronaldo08 November 13, 2011 11:38 PM GMT
i believe the source cos it is pretty much always accurate and if not totally accurate they are within 1% which is good enough for me.

Questions is how are they getting this information?
Report Cider November 13, 2011 11:41 PM GMT
No need to quetion it, just appreciate ity.
Most people would lose with the previous figs in front of them every week in any case Wink
Report budgiebird. November 13, 2011 11:43 PM GMT
The article is referred to on the tellymix website. Wondering if X Factor people got wind of the online report and got them to pull it before it was put into print.
Report jack12321 November 13, 2011 11:43 PM GMT
Yep, if we'd known what Alexandra's vote was in the early weeks she'd have been 20's+
Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 11:46 PM GMT

Nov 13, 2011 -- 5:43PM, budgiebird. wrote:


The article is referred to on the tellymix website. Wondering if X Factor people got wind of the online report and got them to pull it before it was put into print.


Never have before. Cowell has no control over Desmond. It was in the paper btw

Report jack12321 November 13, 2011 11:47 PM GMT
Thanks GB, just needed some confirmation someone had actually read it in the actual paper before taking it as 100% fact
Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 11:48 PM GMT
Yep, I think the site is pretty limited and doesn't carry all of the paper stories
Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 11:49 PM GMT
Plenty of tits though
Report hemsby November 13, 2011 11:49 PM GMT
I bought the paper Blush .It was in there.
Report GeorgeBrush November 13, 2011 11:49 PM GMT
Laugh
Report five leaves left November 13, 2011 11:51 PM GMT
Cheers Hemsby.

Anything else of interest?
Report hemsby November 14, 2011 12:00 AM GMT
Accusations of Misha bullying people when at school,stories of judges arguing (yawn),Lady Gaga intending to adopt 3 indian kids from an orphanage (i kid you not) ......In answer to your question No.
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