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Daily Star - janet tops vote every week

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By:
seebee
When: 13 Nov 11 12:03
For what it's worth I monitored twitter last night accumulating the tweets about contestants from the show began until around 1 am. Not the negatives or positives, just volume. Janet had over 12,000 tweets about her, closest to her was Marcus, while Misha was only hitting around 8,000 mark. So for those not finding support on twitter, I'm not sure where you're looking. Or perhaps you're just doing your own deramps. But the support is definitely there.

I'm not saying that means anything, or that she'll win (she was the first contestant I went red on back at the start of all this - much healthier for me if she doesn't) but for those claiming the support isn't there on twitter, you do realise how easy it is to disprove what you're saying? And if you're betting on this I assume most people will check rather than take your word for it.
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 13 Nov 11 12:04
Cheers seebee. Maybe you could do an Antony thread Grin
By:
George Bailey
When: 13 Nov 11 12:11
Volume alone is meaningless seebee. janet is 2 negs to 1 positive so her leading on volume alone is not surprising..marmite causes itchy tweeter fingers. I do think that a very low twitter count can indicate apathy though. Cab you post your full numbers?
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 13 Nov 11 12:14
Not entirely useless. It shows at least there is a buzz about that candidate. We know she's too marmite to win. prolly applies to all the girls
By:
five leaves left
When: 13 Nov 11 12:15
I do struggle to find that support for Janet on twitter seebee, but always start looking after the show.

I searched for 'X win' tweets and had Janet trailing in 5th.

That leaves me to believe that it's mostly a regional vote. Though others finding more support for her on there is interesting.
By:
seebee
When: 13 Nov 11 12:35
Monitoring twitter for one reality show is bad enough! Five hours of about 40 different tabs with graphs, sentiments, and trending tools are more than enough for me!

Marmite might cause itchy fingers, but Misha would be - in my opinion - the biggest marmite in there. And she only polled 8,000.

I've not found the sentiment tools to be particularly useful. Without getting into the semantics of wicked, well bad, etc, on a very basic level it can't separate out tweets like "I love Marcus, but craig is going to win".

Last night was the first serious attempt to look at it, and to be honest, not sure I could face doing it again given the amount of work and time it took. Perhaps if Misha ends up bottom 2 I will as then it might be giving a clear indication of what is going on, but it could be way off. Won't really know until tonight.

With 'to win' tweets, I'm not sure if checking twitter for those alone gives the whole picture. Lots of people will tweet about contestants without framing their tweets in those sorts of terms - which is why I was looking at volume as well as sentiment, etc. and using brand tracking sites too, but as I said no idea how accurate any of it will be.

In terms of numbers, Janet and Marcus were mid 12k, Little Mix were on 10k, slightly ahead of Craig, and Misha brought up the rear on 8k. Tab with Amelia and kitty froze and crashed, so no reliable numbers on them.
By:
George Bailey
When: 13 Nov 11 12:40
Misha is a lower grade marmite than janet though so I would expect fewer tweets. GB saw some research on AI that showed no correlation between volume and outcome. Don't know where though.
By:
seebee
When: 13 Nov 11 12:48
I'm first to hold my hands up and say I've no idea if any of this will be representative of how people vote. I always look at the stats from the rest of you all, and try to make decisions based on those and my own gut instincts, and appreciate everyone else doing it. Just decided this week to have a go myself, to see what I could find on twitter. Who knew there were so many analytic tools out there?

Of course, what we really need is someone who can write code and use the twitter api to really mine the data. ExcitedConfused
By:
Dizzy42
When: 13 Nov 11 12:49
Two good posts 6G - agree with all of those points... Shaping up to be a two horse race.
By:
five leaves left
When: 13 Nov 11 12:54
To win tweets have always worked fine for me, but I usually only use them for the final and semi.

My normal stats are a snapshot over a short period where I read every tweet. For me the only truly accurate method.

Using that method Janet has always struggled.

The only assumptions I can make form that finding is that

1. Her vote is mostly regional
2. Her vote is mostly young, as I tend to look quite late. Around 11. Even later last night as twitter search was playing up
By:
seebee
When: 13 Nov 11 13:12
Hi Five, Why do you think that makes her vote regional? Are you searching in specific geographic areas? I'm pretty sure she probably does have a decent regional vote, but not sure why that wouldn't show up on your twitter stats?

I'd certainly agree she has a young vote, saw a lot of tweets last night from teenagers, and a lot of people wishing her happy birthday too.
By:
George Bailey
When: 13 Nov 11 13:13

Nov 13, 2011 -- 7:12AM, seebee wrote:


Hi Five, Why do you think that makes her vote regional? Are you searching in specific geographic areas? I'm pretty sure she probably does have a decent regional vote, but not sure why that wouldn't show up on your twitter stats? I'd certainly agree she has a young vote, saw a lot of tweets last night from teenagers, and a lot of people wishing her happy birthday too.


an advanced twitter search round dublin/omagh shows noting.

By:
George Bailey
When: 13 Nov 11 13:14
nothing
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 13 Nov 11 13:14
I would go the other way and suggest the Janet vote is old gits
By:
seebee
When: 13 Nov 11 13:24
I think she's getting votes from every demographic, you can certainly see the appeal to mums, grans and teens with her wholesome nature.
I think she's got the support that will get her to the final, but at this stage don't think she'll win it. Which is why she was the first one I went red on, seemed like too low a price not to oppose given the way the show plays out. Might change my mind in a week or two, but happy to go red and do a bit of trading as and when - it would be rude not to.
By:
seebee
When: 13 Nov 11 13:26
GB, are you using nearby tweets?
By:
five leaves left
When: 13 Nov 11 13:34
I'm not using nearby tweets no seebee.

All I'm saying is I don't use tools as I don't trust them.

'Janet to win' and 'anyone but Janet to win' would both show up as positive on these tools I suspect.

As I said I just read the tweets posted after the show and Janet always struggles in terms of numbers of genuinely positive tweets.
I the bottom half evey single week.

But if you believe the Star, which I do, she's polling very well.

I don't see any other explaination other than a regional vote plus a young vote, who have all gone to bed when I check.
Plus maybe a gran vote who don't use the net. Though she strikes me as too marmite and niche for most pensioners/
By:
five leaves left
When: 13 Nov 11 13:35
I have had her in the bottom half every single week* that should read
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 13 Nov 11 13:36
I have had her in the bottom half every single week.  Lucky old you Laugh
By:
Dizzy42
When: 13 Nov 11 13:38
FLL - I think the grannie vote for Janet could be quite significant.  The 'little girl lost' / Irish pixie thing would go down quite well with them I'd have thought...  Sweet 16/17 year old, singing dull old inoffensive ballads - right up their street.
By:
five leaves left
When: 13 Nov 11 13:38
lol, she's not for me mate.

I like a nice ginger, but give me Alice from BOT's or Aliona on SCD above this annoying cold fish.
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 13 Nov 11 13:41
You could warm her up Laugh  Actually I thought she was looking alright last week
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 13 Nov 11 13:42
I agree Dizzy. More likely than youngster vote. Could be the gypo demographic in their caravans too Laugh
By:
five leaves left
When: 13 Nov 11 13:43
Oh gawd, not another one for your cellar CryLaugh
By:
five leaves left
When: 13 Nov 11 13:44
I hope you've released the lovely Lucie now.
By:
budgiebird.
When: 13 Nov 11 13:45
I can see that her core support will be even more behind her when they see the judges trying to change her and see Janet take a principled stand to resist change and be true to herself, rather than change in a shallow attempt to win the show. Could cause those die-hard fans to multi-vote.
By:
seebee
When: 13 Nov 11 13:47
And don't forget the people who buy Eva Cassidy/Katharine Jenkins/Katie Melua albums. That's a deliberately wide range in terms of artists, but I'd certainly group them together, even Subo. They sell easy listening, xmas albums, and are always around. Daytime tv fodder.
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 13 Nov 11 13:49
I keep having to tighten Lucie's manacles as she's lost so much weight. But still rather have her than Janet
By:
alfie46
When: 13 Nov 11 13:51
give her some more nutrition GB
By:
five leaves left
When: 13 Nov 11 13:51
My mums a pensioner and can't stand her, but only likes Cassidy of those you mention.

She's yet another Marcus fan. Also likes the minxes and Craig.
By:
five leaves left
When: 13 Nov 11 13:53
Craig does predictable safe ballads much better than Janet imo
By:
seebee
When: 13 Nov 11 14:22
Looks like they really are fans in the true sense of the word...

@tweetjlt @DAZM4N_LCFC @janetjealousy make that 120 votes from me, just threw in a few more before switching my phone off ;)
1 hour ago
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 13 Nov 11 14:36

Nov 13, 2011 -- 7:51AM, alfie46 wrote:


give her some more nutrition GB


Laugh

By:
alfie46
When: 13 Nov 11 14:37
Another worried fan
By:
johnnyrant
When: 13 Nov 11 14:38
Craig does predictable safe ballads much better than Janet imo

Surely not last night, fig. That was tuneless dirge from Craig. That is up against a back catalogue of tuneless dirge bar the vaguely acceptable Jar Of Hearts. He has a far more irritating singing style than anyone else in the competition for me. He reminds me of Ronan Keating - he doesn't sing properly, he sings from his throat - reminds me of Vic Reeves singing in a club style. Atrocious.
Janet, by comparison, sang like an angel last night. Cowell, if on a rare honest day, might have said, 'that was world class' but instead Barlow labelled her boring. Farcical statement given the dullness of Craig's horrific warbling, Marcus's feeble Bruno Mars impression, and yet more tortuous rapping from cliched urban diva Misha.
By:
alfie46
When: 13 Nov 11 14:38
Laugh
By:
alfie46
When: 13 Nov 11 14:42
World class......>.........,................>........................Boring
                                                            X
By:
five leaves left
When: 13 Nov 11 14:47
I agree last night she was better than Craig jr, but overall he's been the much more consistent safe ballad singer.
By:
johnnyrant
When: 13 Nov 11 14:56
That's largely cos he has been given the opportunity to sing boring, safe ballads, fig, every week even his club classic effort had far more ballad about it than dance. He has barely budged from his very limited comfort zone, though you wouldn't know it given the judges' consistent ramps.
By:
strikeitrichy
When: 13 Nov 11 15:36
How can you come top of the votes , it you have NOT had one top performance since on the show & its a singing competition?
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