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grendel
19 Oct 11 14:27
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Date Joined: 02 Jul 04
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Following last years analysis of the affect the running order and ad breaks can influence voting, here kicks off this years thread, as the first show was a no voting show the order was irrelevant, but show 2 was:-

Nu Vibe * Sammi * Craig, Janet * Frankie, Jonny * Marcus, Rhythmix * Misha B * The Risk, Sophie * Kitty

As was the case with last year and the year before, acts who appeared with another act following them before an ad break fared badly with the voting and were disproportionately in the bottom 2.

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Replies: 563
By:
TheFink
When: 19 Oct 11 14:53
Personally I think those two would have been bottom two whatever the order. I doubt either got 1% of the public vote, so we're talking about proportions of next to nothing.
By:
six gun
When: 19 Oct 11 15:03
Just listen to them sing. This tells you better than any analysis of odds, polls, orders.
It is easy to say who will be up before the judges and then it is more difficult as the judges decide tactically.
By:
jack12321
When: 19 Oct 11 15:16
Disagree with you two, this kind of info can be helpful to give you a slight edge. Thanks for the info Grendel Happy
By:
jack12321
When: 19 Oct 11 15:19
Actually makes a lot of sense too, the ad break gives a chance for the performance and feelings about the performance to settle in the mind of the viewer. If someone immediately follows them then this process doesn't happen and they're more likely to be forgotten about.
By:
LOU MACARIS TARTAN B
When: 19 Oct 11 15:20
grenedel

Interseting stuff without a doubt I do think though in this instance they were the two worst on the night full stop and the public voted accordingly.
By:
six gun
When: 19 Oct 11 15:25

Oct 19, 2011 -- 3:16PM, jack12321 wrote:


Disagree with you two, this kind of info can be helpful to give you a slight edge. Thanks for the info Grendel


Laugh
Sorry mate but it is so so easy. You had just got to listen to the show on Saturday.
No Vibe - rubbish. Frankie Cocomut can't sing, truly painful.
Gone, gone gone, just how the judges' tactics would work on the actual ejection.

No edge was needed.
If you find it helps good luck to you.

By:
J.O.TOBIN.
When: 19 Oct 11 15:28
Hmmmm as Lou would say each of the three boys sang after an add break and each had an act they wanted to save following. Dont think Janet is plan a.
By:
five leaves left
When: 19 Oct 11 15:37
Excellent work Grendel.

I do reckon you're onto something with singing before or after an ad break.
By:
six gun
When: 19 Oct 11 15:39
Well it is not possible to say anything in terms of ad breaks here. From the thread starter post there is only two acts between ad breaks.

Any thoughts about the losers being in the first half of the show.
Firstly people might like to watch the whole show so tend to forget the first half.
Plus lots of people now watching Strictly and then switching over for the second half so missing the first half acts.
By:
J.O.TOBIN.
When: 19 Oct 11 15:56
You are of course right sixgun but so is Grendel. There are many different ways to suppress someones vote, the most obvious singing in trap 1 or whenever there's an overlap with Strictly, whilst singing late is obviously a massive advantage. These are primary disadvantages/advantages, but as Grendel says singing in the 1st of 2 slots just after an ad break is a disadvantage as comparisons are made to the act singing after, so Frankie who had neutral/poor feedback compared unfavorably with Johnny who was seen as entertaining.
I have no doubt that they wanted a Nu vibe Sami bottom 2 as they were followed by Craig and Janet who had probably the 2 strongest pre show fanbases and were seen as strong acts. Tescos Mary was used to good effect with this last year. That Frankie slipped into the bottom 2 was not such a surprise though as in terms of singing position he was 3rd/4th worst.
It is all a big jigsaw puzzle however many pieces you can put in place makes the picture clearer.
By:
grendel
When: 19 Oct 11 16:05
Heres a link to last years thread, under X Factor 2010 thread group, so wouldn't resurface when attempting to resurrect

http://community.betfair.com/xfactor/go/thread/view/112805/26041941/order-watch?post_id=511388539#511388539#flvWelcomeHeader
By:
grendel
When: 19 Oct 11 16:10
0 (0 Ratings) Share | report block user | Pause Play • Switch to Standard View Order Watch
Report • Quote grendel • November 1, 2010 10:14 AM GMT
thats only apparently 'bleedin obvious' if you cherry pick ... other bottom 2 or 3 contestants have been:-

Diva Fever(7th), TreyC(7th), Katie(9th), Katie(10th), Nicolo(12th) and Belle Amie(12th)
thats only apparently 'bleedin obvious' if you cherry pick ... other bottom 2 or 3 contestants have been:-Diva Fever(7th), TreyC(7th), Katie(9th), Katie(10th), Nicolo(12th) and Belle Amie(12th)
Report • Quote Dizzy42 • November 1, 2010 6:11 PM GMT
My guess (and it's only a guess) would be that Storm, John and Belle all finished last in the public vote, although we only know that for sure about BA.

For the others it has either come down to song choice - or in the case of Katie, pure dislike...
My guess (and it's only a guess) would be that Storm, John and Belle all finished last in the public vote, although we only know that for sure about BA.For the others it has either come down to song choice - or in the case of Katie, pure dislike...
Report • Quote squares • November 1, 2010 6:15 PM GMT
Storm obviously finished bottom of the PV.
Storm obviously finished bottom of the PV.
Report • Quote Dizzy42 • November 1, 2010 6:21 PM GMT
That's right, of course he did...

The point I was trying to make was that of those eliminated so far, four appeared in the first three.  Only Nicolo and Diva Fever did not - and DF were not bottom of the public vote.
That's right, of course he did...The point I was trying to make was that of those eliminated so far, four appeared in the first three. Only Nicolo and Diva Fever did not - and DF were not bottom of the public vote.
Report • Quote bunnyman • November 5, 2010 1:00 PM GMT
ttt - great thread
ttt - great thread
Report • Quote GeorgeBrush • November 5, 2010 1:03 PM GMT
My watch still hasn't arrived My watch still hasn't arrived
Report • Quote squares • November 6, 2010 9:19 PM GMT
1. Cher
2. Mary
***
3. Katie
4. Aiden
***
5. Paije
6. Rebecca
***
7. Wagner
8. Matt
***
9. TreyC
***
10. OD
1. Cher2. Mary***3. Katie4. Aiden***5. Paije6. Rebecca***7. Wagner8. Matt***9. TreyC***10. OD
Report • Quote onthehushhush • November 6, 2010 9:39 PM GMT
thanks squares
thanks squares
Report • Quote Asparagus Man • November 7, 2010 11:02 AM GMT
2nd week in a row TreyC has been in a section by herself. Not sure if this is significant.
2nd week in a row TreyC has been in a section by herself. Not sure if this is significant.
Report • Quote GeorgeBrush • November 7, 2010 11:04 AM GMT
Making a cup of tea takes a while
Making a cup of tea takes a while
Report • Quote grendel • November 7, 2010 11:53 AM GMT
All on one post with top 3 or 2 in BOLD
Show 1
FYD, Matt * John, Rebecca * Storm, Belle Amie * Cher * Diva Fever, Paije * Katie, Mary, Nicolo * One D., Wagner * Aiden, Treyc
Show 2
Storm * Treyc * Paije, One Dir * Cher, John * Diva Fever * Rebecca, Aiden * Wagner, Katie * Belle Amie, Mary * Matt
Show 3
Paije * John, Rebecca * Cher * Matt, One D * Treyc, Mary * Aiden * Belle Amie, Wagner* Katie
Show 4
Mary, Aiden * Belle Amie, Rebecca * Treyc * Matt, Wagner * Paije, Katie * One Direction, Cher
Show 5
Cher, Mary * Katie, Aiden * Paije, Rebecca * Wagner, Matt * Treyc * One D
All on one post with top 3 or 2 in BOLDShow 1FYD, Matt * John, Rebecca * Storm, Belle Amie * Cher * Diva Fever, Paije * Katie, Mary, Nicolo * One D., Wagner * Aiden, TreycShow 2Storm * Treyc * Paije, One Dir * Cher, John * Diva Fever * Rebecca, Aiden
Report • Quote grendel • November 7, 2010 11:59 AM GMT
bottom 2 or 3 i meant obv.

Other than first or last which is tied in with introductions/ recaps etc. those who had stand alone slots were:-

Cher, Treyc, Diva Fever, Cher, Aiden, Treyc, Treyc.

If it helps getting votes to have your own in-between ads slot, maybe they're trying to nurse Cher, Aiden and Treyc through to the last 8 to get them tied to being on the tour
bottom 2 or 3 i meant obv.Other than first or last which is tied in with introductions/ recaps etc. those who had stand alone slots were:-Cher, Treyc, Diva Fever, Cher, Aiden, Treyc, Treyc.If it helps getting votes to have your own in-between ads slo
Report • Quote GeorgeBrush • November 7, 2010 12:06 PM GMT
Total red herring imho

They couldn't give a monkeys about Tracy
Total red herring imhoThey couldn't give a monkeys about Tracy
Report • Quote five leaves left • November 7, 2010 12:09 PM GMT
Rebecca has only been past halfway once and that was only just past halfway.
She's clearly being held up for a late run.
Let's just hope it's Dancing Brave in the Arc and not in the Derby 
Rebecca has only been past halfway once and that was only just past halfway.She's clearly being held up for a late run. Let's just hope it's Dancing Brave in the Arc and not in the Derby
Report • Quote Pete Watermelon • November 7, 2010 12:15 PM GMT
TraySee is a non entity, shouldn't even be in the Finals.
TraySee is a non entity, shouldn't even be in the Finals.
Report • Quote onthehushhush • November 7, 2010 12:40 PM GMT
Five Leaves: Rebecca ... clearly being held up for a late run.

Couldn't agree more mate.
Five Leaves: Rebecca ... clearly being held up for a late run.Couldn't agree more mate.
Report • Quote five leaves left • November 7, 2010 12:51 PM GMT
Let's just hope Cowell manages it and doesn't do a Greville Starkey and let Matt get an unassailable lead.
Let's just hope Cowell manages it and doesn't do a Greville Starkey and let Matt get an unassailable lead.
Report • Quote Dizzy42 • November 7, 2010 7:24 PM GMT
FLL and OTHH - very apt analogies!

Got to be a two horse race between these two now - but there's a chance that Matt by setting a blazing pace will do a Mister Baileys...  Rebecca is still sitting with a double handful in behind.  She is clearly being groomed in the same way that Joe, Alex and even Leona were understated and undersold in the first few weeks.

I think they would be happy with either of these two winning - as would I FLL and OTHH - very apt analogies!Got to be a two horse race between these two now - but there's a chance that Matt by setting a blazing pace will do a Mister Baileys... Rebecca is still sitting with a double handful in behind. She is clearly being
Report • Quote squares • November 7, 2010 8:42 PM GMT
Safe Order Called

Aiden
Rebecca
Matt
OD
Paije
Cher
Wagner
Mary
Safe Order CalledAidenRebeccaMattODPaijeCher WagnerMary
Report • Quote squares • November 13, 2010 9:19 PM GMT
Paije
----
Aiden
Mary
----
Katie
Matt
----
Cher
Wagner
----
OD
----
Rebecca
Paije----AidenMary----KatieMatt----CherWagner----OD----Rebecca
Report • Quote onthehushhush • November 13, 2010 9:39 PM GMT
thanks squares
thanks squares
Report • Quote grendel • November 15, 2010 12:09 PM GMT
All on one post with top 3 or 2 in BOLD
Show 1
FYD, Matt * John, Rebecca * Storm, Belle Amie * Cher * Diva Fever, Paije * Katie, Mary, Nicolo * One D., Wagner * Aiden, Treyc
Show 2
Storm * Treyc * Paije, One Dir * Cher, John * Diva Fever * Rebecca, Aiden * Wagner, Katie * Belle Amie, Mary * Matt
Show 3
Paije * John, Rebecca * Cher * Matt, One D * Treyc, Mary * Aiden * Belle Amie, Wagner* Katie
Show 4
Mary, Aiden * Belle Amie, Rebecca * Treyc * Matt, Wagner * Paije, Katie * One Direction, Cher
Show 5
Cher, Mary * Katie, Aiden * Paije, Rebecca * Wagner, Matt * Treyc * One D
Show 6
Paije * Aiden, Mary * Katie, Matt * Cher, Wagner * One D * Rebecca


...the curse of Mary returns
All on one post with top 3 or 2 in BOLDShow 1FYD, Matt * John, Rebecca * Storm, Belle Amie * Cher * Diva Fever, Paije * Katie, Mary, Nicolo * One D., Wagner * Aiden, TreycShow 2Storm * Treyc * Paije, One Dir * Cher, John * Diva Fever * Rebecca, Aiden
Report • Quote grendel • November 15, 2010 12:18 PM GMT
Using only the remaining 8 acts relative performing positions with points awarded 8 (last) down to 1 (first):-

Wagner 36
One Direction 36
Katie 31
Matt 27
Mary 24
Rebecca 23
Cher 23
Paije 16
Using only the remaining 8 acts relative performing positions with points awarded 8 (last) down to 1 (first):-Wagner 36One Direction 36Katie 31Matt 27Mary 24Rebecca 23Cher 23Paije 16
Report • Quote Henry VIII • November 15, 2010 1:38 PM GMT
Thanks Grendel, very interesting.

Illuminates Cowell's attempts to keep Wager and 1D, and to a lesser extent Katie, in the competition.

It also shows that Paije has been getting public support despite being totally sh@t on by Cowell.
Thanks Grendel, very interesting. Illuminates Cowell's attempts to keep Wager and 1D, and to a lesser extent Katie, in the competition.It also shows that Paije has been getting public support despite being totally sh@t on by Cowell.
Report • Quote limited ability • November 15, 2010 2:55 PM GMT
Also shows PAIJE has dodged two bullets by opening the show on two occassions.
Also shows PAIJE has dodged two bullets by opening the show on two occassions.
Report • Quote Asparagus Man • November 15, 2010 3:14 PM GMT
Frankly Paige's achievement in still being in this competition given the slots, songs and wardrobe he has been given is almost as great as whoever goes on to win this.
Frankly Paige's achievement in still being in this competition given the slots, songs and wardrobe he has been given is almost as great as whoever goes on to win this.
Report • Quote grendel • November 18, 2010 12:24 PM GMT
It seems an act after you before the ads is a curse .. esp. since week 3
It seems an act after you before the ads is a curse .. esp. since week 3
Report • Quote LOU MACARIS TARTAN B • November 18, 2010 12:56 PM GMT
Yes Paije done very well to get this far considering his slots.  Due a 'pimp' slot it can only help his cause.  Can't see him making the final 4 or 5 though.
Yes Paije done very well to get this far considering his slots. Due a 'pimp' slot it can only help his cause. Can't see him making the final 4 or 5 though.
Report • Quote Crisp77 • November 18, 2010 1:18 PM GMT
Sorry, did not see this thread before. 
Sorry, did not see this thread before.
Report • Quote squares • November 18, 2010 2:42 PM GMT
You can't assume that anyone is due anything though.

Someone like Lloyd from last year, for example, made it all the way to the final 5 with these positions:

8th of 12, 7th/11, 2nd/10, 4th/9, 3rd/8, 2nd/7, 1st/6, 2nd and 6th at 2-song stage.

There are some contestants who make it a fair way but never close the show.
You can't assume that anyone is due anything though.Someone like Lloyd from last year, for example, made it all the way to the final 5 with these positions:8th of 12, 7th/11, 2nd/10, 4th/9, 3rd/8, 2nd/7, 1st/6, 2nd and 6th at 2-song stage.There are s
Report • Quote grendel • November 18, 2010 3:02 PM GMT
It's only forums like this that pay much attention or significance to running orders and their influence, most of Joe Public are oblivious to the fact they are subliminally manipulated.

There will be relentless ramping of their chosen one this year in the coming weeks, my guess judging from Simon's comment after Matts performance of 'First Time Ever I Saw Your Face' about it being the Matt and Rebecca show is that they will try and get Rebecca to win, I don't think she is popular enough to win though.
It's only forums like this that pay much attention or significance to running orders and their influence, most of Joe Public are oblivious to the fact they are subliminally manipulated.There will be relentless ramping of their chosen one this year in
Report • Quote LOU MACARIS TARTAN B • November 18, 2010 3:10 PM GMT
grendel

When you say after Matts performance of 'First Time Ever I Saw Your Face' about it being the Matt and Rebecca show is that they will try and get Rebecca to win, why do you pick her and not Matt when he's mentioned them both?  Noy saying you're wrong but if he mentions them both how do you conclude it's her rather than him?
grendelWhen you say after Matts performance of 'First Time Ever I Saw Your Face' about it being the Matt and Rebecca show is that they will try and get Rebecca to win, why do you pick her and not Matt when he's mentioned them both? Noy saying you're
Report • Quote onthehushhush • November 18, 2010 3:56 PM GMT
Grendel: 18 Nov 10 12:24  It seems an act after you before the ads is a curse .. esp. since week 3

Interesting spot, Grendel. A quick look at last year shows that of the 20 times there were two acts between a break it was 14-6 in favour of the act singing second!
Grendel: 18 Nov 10 12:24 It seems an act after you before the ads is a curse .. esp. since week 3Interesting spot, Grendel. A quick look at last year shows that of the 20 times there were two acts between a break it was 14-6 in favour of the act sin
Report • Quote grendel • November 18, 2010 4:29 PM GMT
LOU

If Matt had just sang and Simon was commenting on his performance, the fact he even mentioned Rebecca when his comments should have just been about Matt says a lot imo.  Its almost a bit disrepectful.

onthehushhush

I don't get your stats, surely there were more than 20 times that two acts sang between ads, what does the 14-6 signify?
With an act after you before ads/ end of show, this year has been 29 so far with 9 of them being in bottom 2 or 3.
LOUIf Matt had just sang and Simon was commenting on his performance, the fact he even mentioned Rebecca when his comments should have just been about Matt says a lot imo. Its almost a bit disrepectful.onthehushhushI don't get your stats, surely the
Report • Quote onthehushhush • November 18, 2010 4:40 PM GMT
According to my stats from last year, there WERE only 20 times acts sang together between ads (this from the first seven shows, when everyone only sang once). For instance in shows 6 & 7 there was only one time per show that two acts appeared together - the rest of the time it was one-act-per-segment.

Of the 20 'clashes', 14 times the act singing second in the segment out-scored the act singing first, with only six occasions the other way around, more than I would expect if order had no say in matters.

In short: it looks like you're on to something!
According to my stats from last year, there WERE only 20 times acts sang together between ads (this from the first seven shows, when everyone only sang once). For instance in shows 6 & 7 there was only one time per show that two acts appeared togethe
Report • Quote grendel • November 18, 2010 4:46 PM GMT
ah i see, i think i was thrown by the fact there were 12 finalists last year as oppose to 16 this.  I take it you have all the shows voting figures then from last year
ah i see, i think i was thrown by the fact there were 12 finalists last year as oppose to 16 this. I take it you have all the shows voting figures then from last year
Report • Quote grendel • November 18, 2010 4:47 PM GMT
by the way... mums the word, we'll clean up by the way... mums the word, we'll clean up
Report • Quote onthehushhush • November 18, 2010 4:49 PM GMT
The vote figures are on the ITV website!

And those clashes in full (with act in CAPS winning):

1: Kandy v OLLY, Rikki v STACEY, Frank v JAMIE, Lloyd v LUCIE, Jed v JOE
2: OLLY v Frank, Rachel v JOE, LLOYD v Jed, Rikki v JAMIE
3: LLOYD v Frank, JAMIE v Stacey, JOE v Lucie
4: JOE v Lucie, Lloyd v STACEY, Rachel v JEDWARD
5: OLLY v Lloyd, Lucie v DANYL, Jed v JOE
6: Olly v JOE
7: Jed v DANYL

looking again it's actually 13-7, not 14-6. I must have miscounted.
The vote figures are on the ITV website! And those clashes in full (with act in CAPS winning):1: Kandy v OLLY, Rikki v STACEY, Frank v JAMIE, Lloyd v LUCIE, Jed v JOE2: OLLY v Frank, Rachel v JOE, LLOYD v Jed, Rikki v JAMIE3: LLOYD v Frank, JAMIE v S
Report • Quote grendel • November 18, 2010 4:54 PM GMT
hmm ... you'd have to factor in the favoured act going 2nd in a segment anyway

looks like more stand alone segments from now on judged on last year... more ads revenue !!
hmm ... you'd have to factor in the favoured act going 2nd in a segment anywaylooks like more stand alone segments from now on judged on last year... more ads revenue !!
Report • Quote squares • November 20, 2010 9:01 PM GMT
1. Matt
========
2. Cher
3. OD
========
4. Rebecca
5. Mary
========
6. Paije
7. Wagner
========
8. Katie
1. Matt========2. Cher3. OD========4. Rebecca5. Mary========6. Paije7. Wagner========8. Katie
Report • Quote grendel • November 21, 2010 7:02 AM GMT
thanks for putting it up squares

could be interesting tonight, Rebecca got double curse of Mary slot and an act after her before ads
thanks for putting it up squarescould be interesting tonight, Rebecca got double curse of Mary slot and an act after her before ads
Report • Quote squares • November 21, 2010 9:37 AM GMT
A girl has closed the show 5 out of the 7 weeks, yet only opened the show on one week.
A girl has closed the show 5 out of the 7 weeks, yet only opened the show on one week.
Report • Quote GeorgeBrush • November 21, 2010 9:50 AM GMT
Cher surely more under threat from that theory grendel?

This was the traditional week to throw us off the scent that the RO is unbelievable biased
Cher surely more under threat from that theory grendel?This was the traditional week to throw us off the scent that the RO is unbelievable biased
Report • Quote squares • November 21, 2010 10:11 AM GMT
I would agree with that GB, esp if Cher is competing with OD for the "young" vote.
I would agree with that GB, esp if Cher is competing with OD for the "young" vote.
Report • Quote Dizzy42 • November 21, 2010 10:23 AM GMT
This week's show proves for once and for all that the producers are more than aware of the elimination betting...  Not for the first time this series either.

Favourite to leave on last, 2nd fav was penultimate act, 3rd fav three from the end, 4th fav, four from the end, with the market leaders to win the show all in the first half this week.  They clearly want a shake up as this is bound to create a shock result in the bottom two.

It's Cher that looks to be isolated by this - available at 67 before the show and now just 11.4.  Sandwiched between Matt and One Direction, with the early slot / first of two to perform before an ad all contributing to her vulnerability.  Not to mention a performance that will not appeal to her core fan base (although one of her best in my view).

The sing off beckons!
This week's show proves for once and for all that the producers are more than aware of the elimination betting... Not for the first time this series either.Favourite to leave on last, 2nd fav was penultimate act, 3rd fav three from the end, 4th fav,
Report • Quote grendel • November 21, 2010 8:43 PM GMT
two more acts having an act after them before the ads in bottom 2
two more acts having an act after them before the ads in bottom 2
Report • Quote attitude adjuster • November 21, 2010 9:42 PM GMT
grendel

just my imagination

but i'm convinced Cowell will keep One D close to Matt every week now

maybe something to watch.
grendeljust my imaginationbut i'm convinced Cowell will keep One D close to Matt every week nowmaybe something to watch.
Report • Quote grendel • November 22, 2010 9:29 AM GMT
All on one post with top 3 or 2 in BOLD
Show 1
FYD, Matt * John, Rebecca * Storm, Belle Amie * Cher * Diva Fever, Paije * Katie, Mary, Nicolo * One D., Wagner * Aiden, Treyc
Show 2
Storm * Treyc * Paije, One Dir * Cher, John * Diva Fever * Rebecca, Aiden * Wagner, Katie * Belle Amie, Mary * Matt
Show 3
Paije * John, Rebecca * Cher * Matt, One D * Treyc, Mary * Aiden * Belle Amie, Wagner* Katie
Show 4
Mary, Aiden * Belle Amie, Rebecca * Treyc * Matt, Wagner * Paije, Katie * One Direction, Cher
Show 5
Cher, Mary * Katie, Aiden * Paije, Rebecca * Wagner, Matt * Treyc * One D
Show 6
Paije * Aiden, Mary * Katie, Matt * Cher, Wagner * One D * Rebecca
Show 7
Matt * Cher, One D. * Rebecca, Mary * Paije, Wagner * Katie
All on one post with top 3 or 2 in BOLDShow 1FYD, Matt * John, Rebecca * Storm, Belle Amie * Cher * Diva Fever, Paije * Katie, Mary, Nicolo * One D., Wagner * Aiden, TreycShow 2Storm * Treyc * Paije, One Dir * Cher, John * Diva Fever * Rebecca, Aiden
Report • Quote grendel • November 22, 2010 10:19 AM GMT
Just done some probability maths on the above and last years with info provided by onthehushhush....

Using how many contestants were in each round and how many had acts after them before an ad break, with all things being equal by chance there should have been 4.2 acts in the bottom two last year and there were 7. This year there should have been 6.37 and there have been 11.
An impact value of 1.67 (2009) and 1.73 (2010)
Just done some probability maths on the above and last years with info provided by onthehushhush....Using how many contestants were in each round and how many had acts after them before an ad break, with all things being equal by chance there should
Report • Quote LOU MACARIS TARTAN B • November 22, 2010 1:21 PM GMT
grendel

i don't know how you do it , all too advanced for me but good stuff.  Very interesting.
grendeli don't know how you do it , all too advanced for me but good stuff. Very interesting.
Report • Quote A1 Bionic • November 22, 2010 10:24 PM GMT
ttt
ttt
Report • Quote Asparagus Man • November 22, 2010 10:37 PM GMT
Curse of Mary really clear when you look at it all together:

6/7 weeks adjacent to a B2/B3
4/7 weeks in the same show section as a B2/B3
2/7 weeks immediately between B2 and B3
Curse of Mary really clear when you look at it all together:6/7 weeks adjacent to a B2/B34/7 weeks in the same show section as a B2/B32/7 weeks immediately between B2 and B3
Report • Quote laughing gravy • November 22, 2010 11:23 PM GMT
In two of the last 3 weeks one of the bottom two has sung directly after Matt and all 3 of the last weeks the person who has sung after Mary has been in the bottom two.

This represents a coefficient, dirigible, biometric, venn diagram parabola nexus of 0.002731.

Can someone check my maths?
In two of the last 3 weeks one of the bottom two has sung directly after Matt and all 3 of the last weeks the person who has sung after Mary has been in the bottom two.This represents a coefficient, dirigible, biometric, venn diagram parabola nexus o
Report • Quote George Bailey • November 22, 2010 11:27 PM GMT
Or to keep it simple if you backed the first 2 on to be in the bottom 2 and layed the one singing last how much would you have won?
Or to keep it simple if you backed the first 2 on to be in the bottom 2 and layed the one singing last how much would you have won?
Report • Quote squares • November 23, 2010 12:33 PM GMT
people always seem to be commenting on other threads, so:

Singing Positions of Remaining Contestants

Mary 11/16 13/14 8/12 1/11 2/10 3/9 5/8
(so hasn't gone last, reasonable mix)

Wagner 14/16 10/14 11/12 7/11 7/10 7/9 7/8
(not first nor last, no early slots, lot of 7ths)

Katie 10/16 11/14 12/12 9/11 3/10 4/9 8/8
(not first, last twice)

Cher 7/16 5/14 4/12 11/11 1/10 6/9 2/8
(reasonable mix)

Rebecca 4/16 8/14 3/12 4/11 6/10 9/9 4/8
(not first, few 4ths)

Matt 2/16 14/14 5/12 6/11 8/10 5/9 1/8
(reasonable mix)

OD 13/16 4/14 6/12 10/11 10/10 8/9 3/8
(not first, fairly reasonable mix)
people always seem to be commenting on other threads, so:Singing Positions of Remaining ContestantsMary 11/16 13/14 8/12 1/11 2/10 3/9 5/8 (so hasn't gone last, reasonable mix)Wagner 14/16 10/14 11/12 7/11 7/10 7/9 7/8 (not first nor last, no early s
Report • Quote stringerbell • November 23, 2010 1:49 PM GMT
good stuff squares, thanks mate
good stuff squares, thanks mate
Report • Quote stringerbell • November 23, 2010 1:50 PM GMT
mary obviously due a last slot. i still cant help thinking, with her support base, that she is very tradeable at 46s
mary obviously due a last slot. i still cant help thinking, with her support base, that she is very tradeable at 46s
Report • Quote LOU MACARIS TARTAN B • November 23, 2010 2:06 PM GMT
nick

Yes i agree.  See your point.
nickYes i agree. See your point.
Report • Quote squares • November 24, 2010 9:41 AM GMT
A bit about RO in here, although I wouldn't say Wagner has been getting poor slots.

Girls have, however, closed the show on 5 from 7 weeks and opened it only once.


X Factor judges Louis Walsh and Dannii Minogue have reportedly complained over the "preferential treatment" being given to Cheryl Cole's acts.

The pair are said to be annoyed by the alleged favouritism shown to Cher Lloyd, Katie Waissel and Rebecca Ferguson, and have told Simon Cowell that things need to change.

According to the Daily Star, Walsh and Minogue were further angered when Cole arrived at rehearsals in a Rolls-Royce - while they use so-called 'ordinary cars'.

Other complaints have apparently included that Cole receives the best styling and that her acts receive the best performance slots in the live show's running order.

"It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see Cheryl's acts are getting the best slots," an insider told the paper. "Over the last couple of weeks both Dannii and Louis have been concerned about where their most vulnerable acts - Paije [Richardson], Wagner [Carrilho] and Mary [Byrne] - sit in the Saturday lineup.

"They've been in what everyone calls the 'graveyard' slots at the start of the show where viewers are most likely to forget their performances. Louis raised his concerns with Simon but was told to 'lump it'."

However, an X Factor spokeswoman said: "The order in which acts perform varies each week. None of the finalists are shown preferential treatment, with each of them getting their chance to shine on the stage."
A bit about RO in here, although I wouldn't say Wagner has been getting poor slots.Girls have, however, closed the show on 5 from 7 weeks and opened it only once.X Factor judges Louis Walsh and Dannii Minogue have reportedly complained over the "pref
Report • Quote grendel • November 24, 2010 9:58 AM GMT
an update of the relative order of singing of remaining 7 acts: average is 28

Wagner  37
One D   33
Katie   33
Mary    25
Matt    24
Rebecca 23
Cher    21

hardly favouring cheryl's acts
an update of the relative order of singing of remaining 7 acts: average is 28Wagner 37One D 33Katie 33Mary 25Matt 24Rebecca 23Cher 21hardly favouring cheryl's acts
Report • Quote Asparagus Man • November 24, 2010 10:29 AM GMT
However, an X Factor spokeswoman said: "The order in which acts perform varies each week. None of the finalists are shown preferential treatment, with each of them getting their chance to shine on the stage."


However, an X Factor spokeswoman said: "The order in which acts perform varies each week. None of the finalists are shown preferential treatment, with each of them getting their chance to shine on the stage."
Report • Quote grendel • November 27, 2010 7:27 PM GMT
Take note of act on after first ad break ... been in bottom 2 for last 5 weeks
Take note of act on after first ad break ... been in bottom 2 for last 5 weeks
Report • Quote stringerbell • November 27, 2010 7:28 PM GMT
surely coincidence grendel???
surely coincidence grendel???
Report • Quote grendel • November 27, 2010 7:34 PM GMT
actually whoever does will be on again so may not count against them unless they get another first on after ads slot

maybe coincidence nick .. who knows but last year and this year acts on with another act after them before an ad break are statistically more liable to be in bottom 2
actually whoever does will be on again so may not count against them unless they get another first on after ads slotmaybe coincidence nick .. who knows but last year and this year acts on with another act after them before an ad break are statistical
Report • Quote squares • November 27, 2010 8:32 PM GMT
1st half

Wagner
-------
OD
Mary
-------
Cher
Rebecca
-------
Matt
Katie


might mix up ad breaks in 2nd half?
1st halfWagner-------ODMary-------CherRebecca-------MattKatiemight mix up ad breaks in 2nd half?
Report • Quote squares • November 27, 2010 9:32 PM GMT
Wagner
-------
OD
Mary
-------
Cher
Rebecca
-------
Matt
Katie
-------
Wagner
OD
-------
Mary
-------
Rebecca
Katie
-------
Matt
Cher
Wagner-------ODMary-------CherRebecca-------MattKatie-------WagnerOD-------Mary-------RebeccaKatie-------MattCher
Report • Quote grendel • November 27, 2010 9:45 PM GMT
All on one post with bottom 3 or 2 in BOLD
Show 1
FYD, Matt * John, Rebecca * Storm, Belle Amie * Cher * Diva Fever, Paije * Katie, Mary, Nicolo * One D., Wagner * Aiden, Treyc
Show 2
Storm * Treyc * Paije, One Dir * Cher, John * Diva Fever * Rebecca, Aiden * Wagner, Katie * Belle Amie, Mary * Matt
Show 3
Paije * John, Rebecca * Cher * Matt, One D * Treyc, Mary * Aiden * Belle Amie, Wagner* Katie
Show 4
Mary, Aiden * Belle Amie, Rebecca * Treyc * Matt, Wagner * Paije, Katie * One Direction, Cher
Show 5
Cher, Mary * Katie, Aiden * Paije, Rebecca * Wagner, Matt * Treyc * One D
Show 6
Paije * Aiden, Mary * Katie, Matt * Cher, Wagner * One D * Rebecca
Show 7
Matt * Cher, One D. * Rebecca, Mary * Paije, Wagner * Katie
Show 8
Wagner * One D, Mary * Cher, Rebecca * Matt, Katie * Wagner, One D., Mary * Rebecca, Katie * Matt, Cher
All on one post with bottom 3 or 2 in BOLDShow 1FYD, Matt * John, Rebecca * Storm, Belle Amie * Cher * Diva Fever, Paije * Katie, Mary, Nicolo * One D., Wagner * Aiden, TreycShow 2Storm * Treyc * Paije, One Dir * Cher, John * Diva Fever * Rebecca, Ai
Report • Quote grendel • November 28, 2010 11:26 AM GMT
Double curse of Mary for One D. plus 2 performances with a following act before an ad break.... I can see them being in the bottom 3
Double curse of Mary for One D. plus 2 performances with a following act before an ad break.... I can see them being in the bottom 3
Report • Quote LOU MACARIS TARTAN B • November 28, 2010 11:27 AM GMT
grendel

I think bar Matt it could be anybody.  Very open make a claim for all of them.
grendelI think bar Matt it could be anybody. Very open make a claim for all of them.
Report • Quote squares • November 28, 2010 11:28 AM GMT
grendel, FWIW only first performance had an act after then before the ad break.
grendel, FWIW only first performance had an act after then before the ad break.
Report • Quote grendel • November 28, 2010 11:39 AM GMT
no both squares, there was no ad break between One D and Mary's second performances, was in a 3 act section .... i knew i wasn't going mad as I just rechecked on my Sky+
no both squares, there was no ad break between One D and Mary's second performances, was in a 3 act section .... i knew i wasn't going mad as I just rechecked on my Sky+
Report • Quote squares • November 28, 2010 11:42 AM GMT
oh really grendel, so it went

ads
8 Wagner
9 OD
10 Mary
ads

Cheers, I thought Mary had that as a single slot.
oh really grendel, so it went ads8 Wagner9 OD10 MaryadsCheers, I thought Mary had that as a single slot.
Report • Quote squares • December 4, 2010 8:21 PM GMT
1st songs

1. Rebecca
ads
2. Mary
3. Matt
ads
4. Cher
5. OD
1st songs1. Rebeccaads2. Mary3. Mattads4. Cher5. OD
Report • Quote squares • December 4, 2010 9:06 PM GMT
2nd half

6. Matt
7. Mary
ads
8. Cher
9. rebecca
ads
10. OD
2nd half6. Matt7. Maryads8. Cher9. rebeccaads10. OD
Report • Quote squares • December 5, 2010 10:08 AM GMT
so the order was mixed up for the 2nd songs again.

Mary only remaining act to have never closed the show.  Started off with lateish slots but has been on earlies since.

Cher has opened the show once and closed it twice.

Rebecca has opened it once (last night) and closed it once. 

Matt also in 1st once and last once (some time ago).

OD only remaining act to have never opened the show and have closed it twice, including last night.
so the order was mixed up for the 2nd songs again.Mary only remaining act to have never closed the show. Started off with lateish slots but has been on earlies since.Cher has opened the show once and closed it twice.Rebecca has opened it once (last
Report • Quote Journeyman • December 5, 2010 12:09 PM GMT
The order was very interesting last night.

Assuming they felt they had to let Rebecca perform nearer the end of the show than Cher this week to avoid any accusations of bias, they could hardly have done more to negate the impact of a late slot for her.
i.e. First song sung as far away from the vote opening as possible, second song squeezed into the final segment between Cher and 1D (three songs after the adverts?)

Rebecca did more than enough to compensate for the positioning but it certainly seems as if the intention was to neutralise the adavantage of a obligatory late slot for her as much as possible?
The order was very interesting last night.Assuming they felt they had to let Rebecca perform nearer the end of the show than Cher this week to avoid any accusations of bias, they could hardly have done more to negate the impact of a late slot for her
Report • Quote grendel • December 13, 2010 12:39 PM GMT
Order and Voting positions:-

Show 1

FYD 14, Matt 2
*
John 9, Rebecca 6
*
Storm 13, Belle Amie 11
*
Cher 3
*
Diva F 10, Paije 7
*
Katie 15, Mary 1, Nicolo 16
*
One D 4, Wagner 12
*
Aiden 5, Treyc 8

Show 2

Storm 14, Treyc 10
*
Paije 9, One D 3
*
Cher 6, John 7
*
Diva F 12
*
Rebecca 5, Aiden 4
*
Wagner 11, Katie 8
*
Belle Amie 13, Mary 2
*
Matt 1

Show 3

Paije 7
*
John 11, Rebecca 5
*
Cher 4
*
Matt 1, One D 3
*
Treyc 12, Mary 2
*
Aiden 6
*
Belle Amie 10, Wagner 9
*
Katie 8

Show 4

Mary 3, Aiden 6
*
Belle Amie 11, Rebecca 5
*
TreyC 9
*
Matt 1, Wagner 8
*
Paije 7, Katie 10
*
One D 4, Cher 2

Show 5

Cher 5, Mary 4
*
Katie 10, Aiden 6
*
Paije 7, Rebecca 2
*
Wagner 8, Matt 1
*
Treyc 9
*
One D 3

Show 6

Paije 6
*
Aiden 9, Mary 4
*
Katie 8, Matt 1
*
Cher 5, Wagner 7
*
One D 3
*
Rebecca 2

Show 7

Matt 1
*
Cher 8, One D 4
*
Rebecca 3, Mary 5
*
Paije 7, Wagner 6
*
Katie 2
Order and Voting positions:-Show 1FYD 14, Matt 2*John 9, Rebecca 6*Storm 13, Belle Amie 11*Cher 3* Diva F 10, Paije 7*Katie 15, Mary 1, Nicolo 16*One D 4, Wagner 12*Aiden 5, Treyc 8Show 2Storm 14, Treyc 10*Paije 9, One D 3*Cher 6, John 7*Diva F 12*Re
Report • Quote squares • December 13, 2010 12:48 PM GMT
Cheers grendel, nice work.

Interesting that over 11 shows (with last night being the 11th)

P1mp slots

Girls 8/11
Groups 2/11
Boys 1/11
Olds 0/11

Coffin slots

Boys 5/11
Olds 3/11
Girls 2/11
Groups 1/11

so it can never be assumed that anyone is due anything for the sake of fairness.
Cheers grendel, nice work.Interesting that over 11 shows (with last night being the 11th)P1mp slotsGirls 8/11 Groups 2/11Boys 1/11Olds 0/11Coffin slotsBoys 5/11Olds 3/11Girls 2/11Groups 1/11so it can never be assumed that anyone is due anything for t
Report • Quote Dizzy42 • December 13, 2010 12:51 PM GMT
That's really interesting.  The manipulation this year has plumbed new depths and been quite cynical at times.  But providing you can factor this in to your punting it's an invaluable weapon to have in your armoury, not only for the elimination betting, but it really does give a good steer on who they want out / keep in - and more importantly, who they desperately need to help to remain in the competition...

Will be fascinating to overlay these with the actual voting percentages once known...
That's really interesting. The manipulation this year has plumbed new depths and been quite cynical at times. But providing you can factor this in to your punting it's an invaluable weapon to have in your armoury, not only for the elimination betti
Report • Quote GeorgeBrush • December 13, 2010 12:58 PM GMT
I was saying that to a random mum on the school run this morning Dizzy

Loaded question but she agreed wholeheartedly that Cowell manipulation to get the final he wanted was way over the top this year

Finally the general public have sussed him a little?  His popularity is nowhere near what it was a couple or three years ago. Lucie did for him
I was saying that to a random mum on the school run this morning DizzyLoaded question but she agreed wholeheartedly that Cowell manipulation to get the final he wanted was way over the top this yearFinally the general public have sussed him a little?
Report • Quote GeorgeBrush • December 13, 2010 12:58 PM GMT
The % are out btw, I think
The % are out btw, I think
Report • Quote grendel • December 13, 2010 1:00 PM GMT
yep

http://xfactor.tellymix.co.uk/results
yep http://xfactor.tellymix.co.uk/results
Report • Quote squares • December 13, 2010 1:56 PM GMT
They had to get Cher into the final 4.  Mary would have looked ridiculous with Will I Am

Actually, would love to have seen Mary and Christina Ag.  When CA turned up trying to steal the show, Mary would have just boomed over her and if she tried any more diva tactics Mary could have elbowed her out of the way, or just stood in front of her to make her vanish.

Sounds like something they could do on TV Burp.
They had to get Cher into the final 4. Mary would have looked ridiculous with Will I Am Actually, would love to have seen Mary and Christina Ag. When CA turned up trying to steal the show, Mary would have just boomed over her and if she tried any m
Report • Quote GeorgeBrush • December 13, 2010 2:00 PM GMT
Mary would have got Westlife 
Mary would have got Westlife
Report • Quote GeorgeBrush • December 13, 2010 2:01 PM GMT
Or Johnny Logan
Or Johnny Logan
Report • Quote attitude adjuster • December 13, 2010 2:01 PM GMT
Could have got Vince Clark back to do "Only You"

very 80s retro/le roux styleee 
Could have got Vince Clark back to do "Only You"very 80s retro/le roux styleee
Report • Quote squares • December 13, 2010 2:03 PM GMT
over the weekend I couldn't get Leave In Silence out of my head.

Now, for some reason, you've reminded me of How Winter Kills, aa
over the weekend I couldn't get Leave In Silence out of my head.Now, for some reason, you've reminded me of How Winter Kills, aa
Report • Quote attitude adjuster • December 13, 2010 2:09 PM GMT
got some terible news ..late last night.

alan normile,lucy normile's husband/assistant trainer died of cancer.

only 38,very young family...always enjoyed the crack at the local courses up here

nothing you can really say 
got some terible news ..late last night.alan normile,lucy normile's husband/assistant trainer died of cancer.only 38,very young family...always enjoyed the crack at the local courses up herenothing you can really say
Report • Quote squares • December 13, 2010 2:11 PM GMT
saw that in the RP this morning aa.  A total shocker to say the least   
saw that in the RP this morning aa. A total shocker to say the least
Report • Quote LOU MACARIS TARTAN B • December 13, 2010 3:02 PM GMT
squares

It's right waht you say and great stuff as ever with you.  I'd love to be able to sit Cowell down and ask him "Why is it they don't all get a turn each at going first, a turn second, the last spot" etc etc.  I wonder how he could answer it?  It's blatantly unfair from your figures so how could he defend it, what could he say?
squaresIt's right waht you say and great stuff as ever with you. I'd love to be able to sit Cowell down and ask him "Why is it they don't all get a turn each at going first, a turn second, the last spot" etc etc. I wonder how he could answer it? I
Report • Quote squares • December 13, 2010 6:01 PM GMT
He'd say "it's my show and I can do what the fk I like"

which is more or less what he said after the Mary/Cher debacle.
He'd say "it's my show and I can do what the fk I like" which is more or less what he said after the Mary/Cher debacle.
Report • Quote LOU MACARIS TARTAN B • December 13, 2010 6:06 PM GMT
Seriously though I wonder how he could answer it?

Another thing rergarding order:  Whilst it's definately not favourable to sing first when Matt did 'Come Together' fist which i didn't think was great in a very poor 'Beatles week' he still topped the vote!
Seriously though I wonder how he could answer it?Another thing rergarding order: Whilst it's definately not favourable to sing first when Matt did 'Come Together' fist which i didn't think was great in a very poor 'Beatles week' he still topped the
Report • Quote squares • December 13, 2010 6:11 PM GMT
must have been that vest 
must have been that vest
Report • Quote Dizzy42 • December 13, 2010 6:49 PM GMT
Amazing.  He turned out to be bomb proof.  Not even Laryngitis could stop him...

I thought he was poor in Beatles week too; wrong song choice and graveyard slot, but obviously the juggernaut was already well on its way by then!
Amazing. He turned out to be bomb proof. Not even Laryngitis could stop him...I thought he was poor in Beatles week too; wrong song choice and graveyard slot, but obviously the juggernaut was already well on its way by then!
Report • Quote GeorgeBrush • December 14, 2010 11:15 AM GMT
Lou  Squares   

All's well that ends well
Lou Squares All's well that ends well
Report • Quote Cider • December 14, 2010 6:16 PM GMT
I don't think it is amazing at all.
The show is hugely uncompetitive at the top end, and we had an extremely votable person for this audience who was arguably the best performer and in the top 2 singers. The show is crafted to look like it is an open contest.
I don't think it is amazing at all.The show is hugely uncompetitive at the top end, and we had an extremely votable person for this audience who was arguably the best performer and in the top 2 singers. The show is crafted to look like it is an open
Report • Quote GeorgeBrush • December 14, 2010 7:14 PM GMT
Tell that to Paije Tell that to Paije
Report • Quote George Bailey • December 14, 2010 7:22 PM GMT
Cheers grendel. Unless I'm reading it wrong suggests opening show ain't fatal (weeks 1 and 2 i think overlapped with end of SCD; certainly week 2 did)but pimp spot is a big advantage.
Cheers grendel. Unless I'm reading it wrong suggests opening show ain't fatal (weeks 1 and 2 i think overlapped with end of SCD; certainly week 2 did)but pimp spot is a big advantage.
Report • Quote Dizzy42 • December 15, 2010 10:46 AM GMT
Cider - I agree that there were only 4 or 5 possible winners from the outset (some would argue only 2 or 3), but what I thought was amazing was that Matt could still top the vote with a sizeable percentage in a week when he was on first with a poor song choice and performed badly (compared to other standout performances).

As GB says, the opening slot obviously isn't fatal if you have a strong enough contestant to carry it.  As soon as one of the weaker singers gets the graveyard shift, that's the time to plunge on.  But the voting patterns still prove that there's absolutely no point in punting on the elimination market until you know the running order.

It's the only thing that kept Wagner and Katie in so long (that and dodgy sing off / deadlock decisions!)
Cider - I agree that there were only 4 or 5 possible winners from the outset (some would argue only 2 or 3), but what I thought was amazing was that Matt could still top the vote with a sizeable percentage in a week when he was on first with a poor s
Report • Quote grendel • October 19, 2011 12:31 PM BST
The order of the first show is irrelevant as there was no voting but show 2 was:-

Nu Vibe * Sammi * Craig, Janet * Frankie, Jonny * Marcus, Rhythmix * Misha * The Risk, Sophie * Kitty

Frankie continues the trend of an act having an act after them before ad break being in the bottom 2, being blooody awful helped too of course.
By:
six gun
When: 19 Oct 11 16:19
Very interesting analysis of this side of the show.
I have not bet on the show before last week.
I then layed Sami and Sophie as their lay odds were not something stupid but I could not see either actually getting the boot.
I think a telling statement made by Tulisa - she even gave it as a comment after Kelly had said her bit. You are developing a brand with "Misha B".

Hmmmmm Brand Cowell.
Janet is very good but is she the bang on professional, lights and stars act like Misha?
I was well impressed with Misha.
By:
six gun
When: 19 Oct 11 16:22
"But the voting patterns still prove that there's absolutely no point in punting on the elimination market until you know the running order."

No, you can Dutch the laggards and still make money. But there isn't much money about to match on the back side.
By:
jack12321
When: 19 Oct 11 16:30
Asparagus Man • November 7, 2010 11:02 AM GMT
2nd week in a row TreyC has been in a section by herself. Not sure if this is significant.

GeorgeBrush • November 7, 2010 11:04 AM GMT
Making a cup of tea takes a while

Laugh
By:
jack12321
When: 19 Oct 11 17:06
Thanks Grendel for last years thread.

Just tapping some figures into a spreadsheet, so far come up with:

For first 5 shows last year, where there were 2 acts performing between ad breaks (occured 24 times):

Straight after ads: Median vote 4.15%
Straight before ads: Median vote 7.6%
By:
grendel
When: 23 Oct 11 06:59
Week 3 order and ads

Marcus, Janet * Sami, Rhythmix * Sophie * Craig, Kitty * Frankie * The Risk, Jonny * Misha B

Marcus and Sami vulnerable from their performing positions.
By:
onthehushhush
When: 23 Oct 11 22:25
Thanks for the orders Grendel. Not been watching yet this year but as discussed last year there's something in this.
By:
LOU MACARIS TARTAN B
When: 23 Oct 11 22:27
grendel

Marcus did welll to go through then specially from the worst spot of all.  Thought he did well and thoroughly deserved his place in the next round.




OTHH

Nice to hear from you this year.
By:
onthehushhush
When: 23 Oct 11 22:34
Evening Lou, good to be back.
*rolls up sleeves*
By:
LOU MACARIS TARTAN B
When: 23 Oct 11 22:37
and in the blue corner ...............
By:
attitude adjuster
When: 27 Oct 11 19:54
ttt
By:
platinni
When: 27 Oct 11 20:55
ta, knew there was a thread
By:
jack12321
When: 29 Oct 11 22:51
Where did the ads fall tonight please someone? Missed the main show

Thanks in advance Happy
By:
squares
When: 29 Oct 11 22:53
The Risk
Johnny

ads

Sophie
Marcus

ads

Misha B

ads

Janet
Frankie

ads

Kitty

ads

Little Mix
Craig
By:
jack12321
When: 29 Oct 11 23:00
Thanks squares Grin you're a star
By:
grendel
When: 30 Oct 11 08:07
Think Sophie is toast tonight, poor comments from Louis and Gary and almost sure to be in bottom 2, thanks squares for putting the order up
By:
Dizzy42
When: 30 Oct 11 10:55
Squares - covering old ground here, but can you please remind me of the historical significance of where the ads are placed in relation to acts?
By:
Dizzy42
When: 30 Oct 11 11:25
By the way, a couple of people mentioned on here that the live tour was a bit of a red herring.

With the three contestants that headed the betting for the copy, Frankie, Kitty and Little Mix, all given prime second half spots this would seem to contradict that.  All three are the type of acts that they would want to keep in - not just for publicity, but for tour ticket sales.

Sophie looks to be the sacrificial lamb - poor song choice yet again, poor slot in 3rd.
By:
Cider
When: 30 Oct 11 11:27
If they wanted an act on the tour, they would go on the tour.
By:
squares
When: 30 Oct 11 11:50
I've got figures close at hand here from 08, although I don't have ads for 08 and 09.  Grendel started that last year, although you can get an idea for the earlier years.

A lot of the time though you could see many of the contestants in trouble being in trouble from almost anywhere they were positioned apart from perhaps very late and when there have been a few "lost in the mix" type of shocks.

It does looks to be a big disadvantage to be early-mid and straight after an ad break though.

Obviously things change every year with different number of contestants and eliminations.

Up until the 2-song stage, last year,

9 acts left over the first 7 weeks.

2 were first up.
2 performed "alone" in mid(ish) slots.
4 were after ads.
1 before ad break.

Of the 7 saved acts,

6 performed after ads.
1 before ad break.

I think that's correct - apologies if any small errors have occurred, just doing it quickly without proper checking.
By:
squares
When: 30 Oct 11 11:52
I do think there are certain acts they want on the tour, although if any of them missed out they would highly likely get them on it at least for some of the time.
By:
Cider
When: 30 Oct 11 11:56
Depending upon the contracts (but I assume they have every escape imaginable in favour of XF) there may be people they want to keep off the tour.
By:
Dizzy42
When: 30 Oct 11 12:28
Even if the tour is a red herring, there's no doubt that they did everything in their power last night to keep Frankie, Kitty and Little Mix in the competition - both in terms of song choices and running order.
By:
Dizzy42
When: 30 Oct 11 12:32
Thanks Squares - useful stuff.  I have all of the historical info on the OOR, but not the ads.

From my reading of the stats 75% of eliminated acts in the last four seasons appeared in the first four the week they were ejected.  Conversely since 2007 no act to appear in the last two on stage (up until four remaining) has fallen into the bottom two.

Factoring the ads in as well might give this another interesting dimension, although the opening slot and mid slots are obviously other factors to take into account.
By:
onthehushhush
When: 30 Oct 11 13:12
the gist of the ads is that if you sing with someone else in your segment then it's better to sing AFTER them, ie as the second of the two acts. someone else worked out the complicated maths earlier in the thread but essentially you get fewer votes singing as the first of a pair of acts than you do singing second.

the other thing to watch for is if a strong act sings in a segment of the show with a second act, they can harm the other act's vote share regardless of whether they are first or second in the segment.

Confused yet?
By:
Dizzy42
When: 30 Oct 11 13:24
Thanks OTHH - good to see you back on the forum!
By:
cjhornet
When: 30 Oct 11 13:50
othh check your messages Cool
By:
Dizzy42
When: 04 Nov 11 11:46
Thought I'd try a different tack to evaluate the running order so far.  Difficult to see any obvious patterns this year, to be honest, but there are one or two stand out points.

Here are the positions to date (p stands for Pimp Slot):

Janet - 16p / 4 / 2 / 6 (total = 28)
The Risk - 13 / 10 / 9 / 1 (33)
Craig - 14 / 3 / 6 / 10p (33)
Marcus - 11 / 7 / 1 / 4 (23)
Misha - 9 / 9 / 11p / 5 (34)
Little Mix - 3 / 8 / 4 / 9 (24)
Johnny - 2 / 6 / 10 / 2 (20)
Kitty - 15 / 12p / 7 / 8 (42)
Frankie - 4 / 5 / 8 / 7 (24)

Based on the number of runners each week, the maximum total points you could get would be 49 - therefore any scores over say 25 suggest that an act has been favoured by the running order so far - and any under that figure have effectively 'outperformed' their slots (particularly if not falling into the bottom two).

The two acts that stand out a mile are the remaining overs.  Kitty has yet to have a first half slot (in fact has appeared in the last three in three out of four weeks), but yet still fell into the bottom two the week she was on 7th. Even with the pimp slot the week before apparently she was only half a percent ahead of Frankie.  As soon as she gets a first half spot, she's a certainty for bottom two again.

Conversely, Johnny has been way out-peforming his numbers.  He's had three early berths and yet has stayed clear of the bottom two.  Likewise, Marcus in the last couple of weeks.  You could also argue that Frankie and Little Mix have also done well to survive thus far.

Misha, Craig and The Risk have been favoured by their slots so far - and all three could well be vulnerable when they appear in an early position again.

Of course much of this is guesswork without the voting numbers, but it does at least give us a feel of who has been doing well / badly respectively in the public vote so far.
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