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Brigada1874
11 Sep 11 21:49
Joined:
Date Joined: 02 Sep 11
| Topic/replies: 922 | Blogger: Brigada1874's blog
Never have I have been so confident - they ain't going to find better than her and they know it. Like a rock version of Pixie Lott no one around like that at the moment.

Cast iron cert.
Pause Switch to Standard View Amelia Lily - 100% X-Factor Winner
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Report GeorgeBrush September 14, 2011 6:24 PM BST
Surely not?

Although at the moment it's looking like no front runner and loads trading around 10
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 14, 2011 6:25 PM BST
She did the sme with the breathing on her audition.
Report GeorgeBrush September 14, 2011 6:25 PM BST
I think she's very annoying
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 14, 2011 6:26 PM BST
All the firms have her as favourite but perhaps it is more open this year and on BF at least the jolly could well be about 6/1
Report five leaves left September 14, 2011 6:26 PM BST
Let's hope she's favourite.
Report GeorgeBrush September 14, 2011 6:27 PM BST
Yep, or even longer

Someone will probably get backed down in week 0 though
Report GeorgeBrush September 14, 2011 6:28 PM BST
I hope this cack Mccabe is jolly, or Amelia
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 14, 2011 6:31 PM BST
Still waiting to see them all before I back/lay.

A few runners though so far me thinks
Report Henry VIII September 14, 2011 6:38 PM BST
Anyone agree/disagree with my Janet Devlin point?

I don't think her breathing's a problem Lou. I didn't notice it until you mentioned it. Check out her youtube videos in her home. She also does Your Song in her lounge and I think her breathing's less pronounced.

The problem with Janet may (or may not) be her lack of experience in front of large audiences, unlike say Melanie. Can she move easily? Will she learn to feel at ease? These things were never mastered by Rebecca, who I think would have won if she had done so (only 6% behind Matt at the end and closing).
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 14, 2011 6:46 PM BST
Henry

Have to disagree.  The link I posted below when I initially mentioned the breathing was from her lounge.  I know it's getting a bit technical but listen to say Elton sing the same song and you won't hear a breath.  She grossly exaggerates it and she should control it as it really grates on me so others will notice I think.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 14, 2011 6:48 PM BST
Here's an Elton live version.  Compare the difference with the breathing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTa8U0Wa0q8
Report squares September 14, 2011 6:49 PM BST
she looked like she could stomp about and move with ease when she won that Stars In Yer Eyes thing for Irish Schools as Avril Lavigne.  Obv, it's different doing something in front of that sort of home/school crowd but she certainly wasn't standing there like a frightened rabbit caught in the headlights.
Report squares September 14, 2011 6:52 PM BST
Hey Lou,

maybe this could iron out any major flaws:-

And the girls are working with her personal vocal coach Rob Stevens, who has designed an iPhone app called Voice Tutor which they can use to improve their voices.

Kelly said: "I definitely have a schedule planned, I know what I'm doing.

"I have my vocal coach in there working with them now."

(Kelly talking about her four finalists published two days ago)
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 14, 2011 6:56 PM BST
squares

I'm sure that will help and it's just habit really.  She should take more subtle breaths even slightly turning the mic' away so it isn't picked up so much.  I'm sure they'll point it out to her though as it's not a good trait.

For instance it's often said that one of Sinatra's best things was his breath control.  You'll read it time and time again about him.
Report Henry VIII September 14, 2011 7:01 PM BST
True Lou, the Elton one is cleaner but I still don't think it's a problem.

I remember Debbie Harry being annoyed when they removed her breathing in post production. Of course her singing was much faster harder and more appropriate to have breathing heard than with Janet's quieter more considered singing.
Report five leaves left September 14, 2011 7:08 PM BST
She wasn't trying to sing it like Elton. She was doing a copycat version of the Goulding cover and failed miserably.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9AFMVMl9qE
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 14, 2011 7:09 PM BST
Henry

Yes with such a easy, quiet, no frills song to sing it is very noticeable that she breaths so heavily.  Maybe it's just me but i really don't think it's an ideal trait and she should control it.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 14, 2011 7:10 PM BST
Figgy

I don't know who 'Goulding' is.  Elton's new stuff to me!

wink!
Report squares September 14, 2011 7:11 PM BST
I had a bad habit our singing teacher told me to ditch once.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 14, 2011 7:11 PM BST
Not to be sniffed at squares!
Report five leaves left September 14, 2011 7:13 PM BST
Listen to it then Lou.
Report squares September 14, 2011 7:14 PM BST
This is from nearly 40 years ago,

and I've always noticed other people doing it.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 14, 2011 7:15 PM BST
Rather put me Gilbert greatest hits on in the car. 

"If I gave up the seat I've been saving"

smashing stuff.
Report Henry VIII September 15, 2011 5:25 PM BST
http://xfactor.tellymix.co.uk/news/47432-x-factor-2011-amelia-lily-has-been-...
Report squares September 15, 2011 5:27 PM BST
pro singer article, i assume
Report five leaves left September 15, 2011 5:31 PM BST
It doesn't surprise me at all.

Her style looks manufactured and contrived to me rather than natural and spontaneous.
Report squares September 15, 2011 5:35 PM BST
Yes, that sort of background from a young age explains a lot.  She performs, she goes through the motions but she doesn't emote or connect with what she is singing.
Report Helmuthian Folds September 15, 2011 6:53 PM BST
I looked up on you tube Devlin singing a few things and I think she is awful.

Listening to her murdering Crazy by Gnarls Berkley is one of the musical low points of my life!
Report GeorgeBrush September 15, 2011 7:00 PM BST
Can't see owt to compare to Vickers or Lucie in these girls, and we all know what became of them
Report Brigada1874 September 15, 2011 7:22 PM BST
She's a pro we all know this anyway.
Gives her a edge over the amateurs.
Report stroodle September 15, 2011 7:52 PM BST
Amelia for me looks different from rest, the show favours a male over a female thats the only problem for me, any price up at 16/1 and Ill be snaffling plenty of that.
Report stroodle September 15, 2011 8:01 PM BST
John Wilding 9/1 with Paddy Power been on show previously think he made bootcamp.
Report Claret85 September 15, 2011 8:07 PM BST
John Wilding doesn't make it according to the spoilers.
Report stroodle September 15, 2011 8:16 PM BST
Why would they make him shortest priced male, couldnt see him doing well anyway.
Report Claret85 September 15, 2011 8:20 PM BST
The spoilers may be wrong. Only one bookmaker have priced him up.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 15, 2011 8:41 PM BST
Claret

So you back him antepost, he doesn't make it and you lose your money.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 15, 2011 8:42 PM BST
Claret

Sorry that was to Stroodle
Report Claret85 September 15, 2011 8:43 PM BST
Yeah. I think they count as runner if they end up in a group though.
Report stroodle September 15, 2011 8:52 PM BST
Lou have no idea how bookmakers work, was just looking at the various odds of everyone and was surprised to see someone at 9/1 who hasnt been on this years show, so was assuming bookmakers must now he made it through thats why he was 9/1 shocking they can quote someone at 9/1 and hes not even through, if the spoilers are correct.
Report Cider September 15, 2011 8:57 PM BST
Only fair really we can't have it both ways. Majority of people playing at this stage are trying to catch books with pants down. I backed a nr in bgt and I've no problem with that.
Report GeorgeBrush September 15, 2011 8:58 PM BST
Prices seem so shyte this year Cider I don't know why anyone bothers
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 15, 2011 8:59 PM BST
stroodle

Same as a horse race ante post.  You mat get a bigger price but where's the guarantee it will run. 

they're not saying that John is a runner they're saying who wants to back him at 9/1 to win X Factor.  If the rumours are true (though we can't be certain) he doesn't even make the finals let alone win it.
Report stroodle September 15, 2011 9:02 PM BST
Cider I dont have a problem with backing someone early and they dont make lives, but to price someone who hasnt been on and been punted the previous year, you would assume the bookmakers had knowledge he made it through to be as short as 9/1... thats what I meant by shocking.
Report Cider September 15, 2011 9:08 PM BST
I don't think it is though. Someone might have asked for a price. If I back someone who hasn't been on the series yet it's my risk, and a fair cop if I lose.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 15, 2011 9:08 PM BST
stroodle

Who knows for sure though?  Maybe he has.
Report stroodle September 15, 2011 9:11 PM BST
To be basically put in as Fav or at least the shortest priced male, who was punted the previous who should be about 50/1 makes me think he is through.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 15, 2011 9:13 PM BST
Squares is pretty good with this sort of thing and there are mentions on the net of the final four of which he's not one of them so I doubt he is.
Report GeorgeBrush September 15, 2011 9:15 PM BST
Have a look at his twitter stroodle.......
Report stroodle September 15, 2011 9:17 PM BST
I could well believe he is not through, anybody taking 9/1 for him needs to be certified. No idea how a bookmaker can quote as short as that.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 15, 2011 9:21 PM BST
I suppose they could quote even money...................... If someone's silly enough to take it!
Report stroodle September 15, 2011 9:26 PM BST
Who has caught your eye so far Lou, any ante post snips for me.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 15, 2011 9:29 PM BST
Keeping my options open at the moment.  A few possibles already but having only heard them once(and some not at all) I've no opinion yet.
Report stroodle September 15, 2011 9:35 PM BST
Thats no use Lou once into live shows most have an idea of winner, looking for early winners with you having 100% record in this event. Have a good holiday
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 15, 2011 9:38 PM BST
stroodle

Thanks for the holiday wishes.

From what we hear there's another good girl to come this weekend and already half a dozen not been bad.  I like to hear them three times which is initial audition, bootcamp and judges houses to assess who I like.

I'm really due a bad fall though so don't pay too much attention to who I like for this year.
Report stroodle September 15, 2011 9:41 PM BST
I have my winner picked already, pity she wasnt a male would have been more confident.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 15, 2011 9:42 PM BST
Male last two years though so not a bad thing I don't think if she's not male!

Who you like ......... wanna tell?
Report stroodle September 15, 2011 9:44 PM BST
The main title of thread
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 15, 2011 9:45 PM BST
Oh I see.

Fair enough.  Not heard her yet but btold she's good so you never know.
Report stroodle September 15, 2011 9:54 PM BST
Whats the reason betfair cant price all the acts up early, you get plenty ante post on everything else.
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 15, 2011 9:58 PM BST
True ....... don't know.  Don't want the hassle of all the people's who's 'horses' don't run?
Report GeorgeBrush September 15, 2011 10:08 PM BST
Are you still here Lou?
Report LOU MACARIS TARTAN B September 15, 2011 10:13 PM BST
Do keep up George,

Clearly stated I'm here till tomorrow aftrenoon.
Report Brigada1874 September 17, 2011 6:45 PM BST
Ameila 'confirmed' by reliable sources as going to lives CoolCoolCool
Report stroodle September 17, 2011 6:53 PM BST
Wasn't in doubt really
Report Brigada1874 September 18, 2011 2:39 AM BST
Been watching her audition again tonight - fantastic. What stands out is how shocked the judges are at how good she is, not the put-on fake reactions they use with all the others.

Looking forward to this promised 14/1 Blush
Report George Bailey September 18, 2011 9:49 AM BST
Prices seem so shyte this year Cider I don't know why anyone bothers

GB there have been a few different comments by you and others along the same lines ie that the HS prices are shockingly low. I've just worked out the overround on what looks like being the final 16 ( I have given shortish odds for the still to be manufactured groups).

Overround on best odds on oddschecker I make at under 90%. I know there is a chance that you can back a non runner but even so surely there has to be value in there somewhere? I think I have found it but need to open a new account to get on plus free bet [;)]
Report Henry VIII September 18, 2011 3:38 PM BST
If I was a bookie I'd love people attaching any meaning to the calculation of the overround on their particular choice of 16. For instance we learn today that all of the groups that had been touted as almost certainties have fallen at JH.
Report GeorgeBrush September 18, 2011 3:41 PM BST
Quite a few reasons why I don't back AP on XF

Henry has no.1
No.2 is a can't get on Laugh
No.3 is the %
Report Henry VIII September 18, 2011 3:56 PM BST
Ultimately No.1 and No.3 are the same GB1. So that's just 2 reasons [;)]

Can't argue against GB2 that there may be value somewhere if you pick the right contestant. But the odds are stacked against you until BF opens their market.
Report GeorgeBrush September 18, 2011 4:21 PM BST
Was it jr who had fantastic success last year picking out Cardie and bex at 12s?

Brilliant work, so it can be done. But you never quite know how they will translate to the big stage, and I doubt I could get much on anyway even if you found a gem

No real stand outs this year for me
Report George Bailey September 18, 2011 4:21 PM BST
I can see a low % GB if taking into account everyone in the betting but I'm gambling on X Factor Updates being as accurate as they were last year at this stage. Re the Groups Henry Updates only have 2 Shoes definitely through.

I've taken a chance on James Michael anyway (missed the 50s/60s unfortunately).  Only a minute on the audition and may not have the voice to kill the showstopper numbers but he has something and I understand he can play the guitar really well. Having three young scouse scallies in might be a worry.

Anyway free bet on a new account.
Report GeorgeBrush September 18, 2011 4:23 PM BST
The guitar is a good spot if true

XF audiences are astonished by stuff like that Laugh
Report George Bailey September 18, 2011 4:24 PM BST
Updates say these and looks sensible to me:

boys
cocozza
colton
collins
michael

girls
bryan
devlin
lily

groups
2 shoes

overs
cheung
brucknall
robinson
Report GeorgeBrush September 18, 2011 4:26 PM BST
Leaves quite a lot to the imagination
Report squares September 18, 2011 4:27 PM BST
it was deejay who picked them at around 14/1
Report George Bailey September 18, 2011 4:27 PM BST
Definitely has something about him.

GB did you work out the odds for the 4 categories? The boys odds are 18/1, 18/1, 16/1, 12/1 and the girls likely to be 25/1 and then 3 under 10/1.  What would that make the odds for you? evens and 5/2?
Report Cider September 18, 2011 4:28 PM BST
I thought (and posted) Cardle was a near certainty after his bootcamp. After I was on oc. Only AP bet.
Last year I backed Lucie after audition and Joe Mc at BC.

This year it's just Marcus, altho far less confident about his votability. Thus only a small bet, @16's I think.
Report George Bailey September 18, 2011 4:29 PM BST
Not too many blanks to fill in GB.  jade or melanie (Melanie?), The Keys and 2 "supergroups" and another oldie tonight.
Report George Bailey September 18, 2011 4:32 PM BST
Was very tempted by Marcus myself but just have a feeling that he will start brightly but not stay the distance.  I can see James being loved by the mums and the teens.  I've probably been daft to take 18s before he is even confirmed but I can see him doing a really good bootcamp and JH. Fortune favours the brave!
Report Cider September 18, 2011 4:33 PM BST
Marcus has the ideal voice imo. All about the makeover/conditioning, and oc if he is wanted.
Report squares September 18, 2011 4:35 PM BST
exactly, easy to spot the fodder once the lives have started.
Report squares September 18, 2011 4:39 PM BST
and even then, they can occasionally throw in a blinding performance.
Report Cider September 18, 2011 4:48 PM BST
Unless something standout occurs in BC or JH, looks like my main betting will be on the lives this time. This auditioning in front of a stadium audience does proffer an advantage though as it's quite easy to tell who will be carp given anything else to sing.
Report Benjy September 19, 2011 9:34 PM BST
Don't see the angle with Marcus at all to be honest. GL though.

This Amelia is interesting. I'm tempted to back her now to be honest.

Probably already said but looks a little like Christina Love
Report Brigada1874 October 2, 2011 4:55 AM BST
Just caught her judges house performance - absolutely brilliant. We're onto a winner here lads she a class apart.
Report jack12321 October 2, 2011 5:06 AM BST
Still really struggle to see her winning, can see her falling into a Lucie kinda trap. Brilliant, but just not a strong enough voting base.

Only women that have won are mature women who younger girls can look up to, and who happen to look like horses. Amelia doesn't tick any of these boxes.

Janet and Amelia both lays for me. They're screamingly similar to Diana and Lucie in terms of potential voting patterns imo
Report Brigada1874 October 2, 2011 5:11 AM BST
Amelia on a different planet to Lucie lol I take your point about the mum vote but all she'll need to do is some ballads and she'll be fine. She can do a perfectly plausible ballad. She'll be brilliant in the lives, A leona like precession is on the cards I feel.
Report jack12321 October 2, 2011 5:58 AM BST
But you need the voting teenies on board to win this show. Broad appeal is vital, and right now I can't see enough teeny girls being inspired by Amelia to pick up the phone in their droves, whereas Leona was a real role model for them.

I actually think Melanie if she's through has more of a chance to grow through the live shows as Leona did.
Report GeorgeBrush October 2, 2011 8:55 AM BST
The teen**** has less chance than Jedward
Report GeorgeBrush October 2, 2011 8:56 AM BST
howwer
Report Brigada1874 October 2, 2011 10:39 PM BST
ante-post pays :D
Report GeorgeBrush October 2, 2011 11:02 PM BST
Certainly does on this. Her price is astonishing
Report TheFormMan October 9, 2011 9:10 PM BST
Plain
Report pmbets October 10, 2011 12:19 AM BST
pmbets
09 Oct 11 01:12
Joined:
24 May 06
| Topic/replies: 2,812 | Blogger: pmbets's blog
She can shout the high notes but it doesnt translate to anyone wanting to buy a song from her.
I think Johnny Robinson will finish ahead of her.
Of all the contestants Janet Devlin is in a totally different league.Janet can blo any of them away with any song and we will watch her grow
and improve week after week.
:(   sori brigga but I am a pro at this and people listen to me as I have a track record of success going back to day 1 of x factor.
Report Brigada1874 October 10, 2011 12:38 AM BST
lol least she went fave 4.3 Cool powerless to a stitch up I'm afraid, this doesn't detract from her quality. Just sent Kelly some abuse on twitter, made me feel better. Happy
Report George Bailey October 10, 2011 1:06 AM BST
Not sure about you being a pro pmbets but your comments re janet suggest you will soon be back in the amateur ranks Laugh
Report stringerbell October 10, 2011 10:24 AM BST
pm bets - do me a favour pal, people listen to you? only for comedic value...
you're a pro at this? see, very good for comedic value....

let's see how your janet gets on...she wont win
Report Hamsterdam November 9, 2011 9:55 PM GMT
BUMP Happy
Report GT November 10, 2011 9:47 PM GMT
oops
Report bardo November 10, 2011 10:01 PM GMT
Laugh
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