Amelia Lily - 100% X-Factor Winner

Surely not?

Although at the moment it's looking like no front runner and loads trading around 10

She did the sme with the breathing on her audition.

I think she's very annoying

All the firms have her as favourite but perhaps it is more open this year and on BF at least the jolly could well be about 6/1

Let's hope she's favourite.

Yep, or even longer

Someone will probably get backed down in week 0 though

I hope this cack Mccabe is jolly, or Amelia

Still waiting to see them all before I back/lay.

A few runners though so far me thinks

Anyone agree/disagree with my Janet Devlin point?

I don't think her breathing's a problem Lou. I didn't notice it until you mentioned it. Check out her youtube videos in her home. She also does Your Song in her lounge and I think her breathing's less pronounced.

The problem with Janet may (or may not) be her lack of experience in front of large audiences, unlike say Melanie. Can she move easily? Will she learn to feel at ease? These things were never mastered by Rebecca, who I think would have won if she had done so (only 6% behind Matt at the end and closing).

Henry

Have to disagree.  The link I posted below when I initially mentioned the breathing was from her lounge.  I know it's getting a bit technical but listen to say Elton sing the same song and you won't hear a breath.  She grossly exaggerates it and she should control it as it really grates on me so others will notice I think.

Here's an Elton live version.  Compare the difference with the breathing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTa8U0Wa0q8

she looked like she could stomp about and move with ease when she won that Stars In Yer Eyes thing for Irish Schools as Avril Lavigne.  Obv, it's different doing something in front of that sort of home/school crowd but she certainly wasn't standing there like a frightened rabbit caught in the headlights.

Hey Lou,

maybe this could iron out any major flaws:-

And the girls are working with her personal vocal coach Rob Stevens, who has designed an iPhone app called Voice Tutor which they can use to improve their voices.

Kelly said: "I definitely have a schedule planned, I know what I'm doing.

"I have my vocal coach in there working with them now."

(Kelly talking about her four finalists published two days ago)

squares

I'm sure that will help and it's just habit really.  She should take more subtle breaths even slightly turning the mic' away so it isn't picked up so much.  I'm sure they'll point it out to her though as it's not a good trait.

For instance it's often said that one of Sinatra's best things was his breath control.  You'll read it time and time again about him.

True Lou, the Elton one is cleaner but I still don't think it's a problem.

I remember Debbie Harry being annoyed when they removed her breathing in post production. Of course her singing was much faster harder and more appropriate to have breathing heard than with Janet's quieter more considered singing.

She wasn't trying to sing it like Elton. She was doing a copycat version of the Goulding cover and failed miserably.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9AFMVMl9qE

Henry

Yes with such a easy, quiet, no frills song to sing it is very noticeable that she breaths so heavily.  Maybe it's just me but i really don't think it's an ideal trait and she should control it.

Figgy

I don't know who 'Goulding' is.  Elton's new stuff to me!

wink!

I had a bad habit our singing teacher told me to ditch once.

Not to be sniffed at squares!

Listen to it then Lou.

This is from nearly 40 years ago,

and I've always noticed other people doing it.

Rather put me Gilbert greatest hits on in the car. 

"If I gave up the seat I've been saving"

smashing stuff.

http://xfactor.tellymix.co.uk/news/47432-x-factor-2011-amelia-lily-has-been-...

pro singer article, i assume

It doesn't surprise me at all.

Her style looks manufactured and contrived to me rather than natural and spontaneous.

Yes, that sort of background from a young age explains a lot.  She performs, she goes through the motions but she doesn't emote or connect with what she is singing.

I looked up on you tube Devlin singing a few things and I think she is awful.

Listening to her murdering Crazy by Gnarls Berkley is one of the musical low points of my life!

Can't see owt to compare to Vickers or Lucie in these girls, and we all know what became of them

She's a pro we all know this anyway.
Gives her a edge over the amateurs.

Amelia for me looks different from rest, the show favours a male over a female thats the only problem for me, any price up at 16/1 and Ill be snaffling plenty of that.

John Wilding 9/1 with Paddy Power been on show previously think he made bootcamp.

John Wilding doesn't make it according to the spoilers.

Why would they make him shortest priced male, couldnt see him doing well anyway.

The spoilers may be wrong. Only one bookmaker have priced him up.

Claret

So you back him antepost, he doesn't make it and you lose your money.

Claret

Sorry that was to Stroodle

Yeah. I think they count as runner if they end up in a group though.

Lou have no idea how bookmakers work, was just looking at the various odds of everyone and was surprised to see someone at 9/1 who hasnt been on this years show, so was assuming bookmakers must now he made it through thats why he was 9/1 shocking they can quote someone at 9/1 and hes not even through, if the spoilers are correct.

Only fair really we can't have it both ways. Majority of people playing at this stage are trying to catch books with pants down. I backed a nr in bgt and I've no problem with that.

Prices seem so shyte this year Cider I don't know why anyone bothers

stroodle

Same as a horse race ante post.  You mat get a bigger price but where's the guarantee it will run. 

they're not saying that John is a runner they're saying who wants to back him at 9/1 to win X Factor.  If the rumours are true (though we can't be certain) he doesn't even make the finals let alone win it.

Cider I dont have a problem with backing someone early and they dont make lives, but to price someone who hasnt been on and been punted the previous year, you would assume the bookmakers had knowledge he made it through to be as short as 9/1... thats what I meant by shocking.

I don't think it is though. Someone might have asked for a price. If I back someone who hasn't been on the series yet it's my risk, and a fair cop if I lose.

stroodle

Who knows for sure though?  Maybe he has.

To be basically put in as Fav or at least the shortest priced male, who was punted the previous who should be about 50/1 makes me think he is through.

Squares is pretty good with this sort of thing and there are mentions on the net of the final four of which he's not one of them so I doubt he is.

Have a look at his twitter stroodle.......

I could well believe he is not through, anybody taking 9/1 for him needs to be certified. No idea how a bookmaker can quote as short as that.

I suppose they could quote even money...................... If someone's silly enough to take it!

Who has caught your eye so far Lou, any ante post snips for me.

Keeping my options open at the moment.  A few possibles already but having only heard them once(and some not at all) I've no opinion yet.

Thats no use Lou once into live shows most have an idea of winner, looking for early winners with you having 100% record in this event. Have a good holiday

stroodle

Thanks for the holiday wishes.

From what we hear there's another good girl to come this weekend and already half a dozen not been bad.  I like to hear them three times which is initial audition, bootcamp and judges houses to assess who I like.

I'm really due a bad fall though so don't pay too much attention to who I like for this year.

I have my winner picked already, pity she wasnt a male would have been more confident.

Male last two years though so not a bad thing I don't think if she's not male!

Who you like ......... wanna tell?

The main title of thread

Oh I see.

Fair enough.  Not heard her yet but btold she's good so you never know.

Whats the reason betfair cant price all the acts up early, you get plenty ante post on everything else.

True ....... don't know.  Don't want the hassle of all the people's who's 'horses' don't run?

Are you still here Lou?

Do keep up George,

Clearly stated I'm here till tomorrow aftrenoon.

Ameila 'confirmed' by reliable sources as going to lives

Wasn't in doubt really

Been watching her audition again tonight - fantastic. What stands out is how shocked the judges are at how good she is, not the put-on fake reactions they use with all the others.

Looking forward to this promised 14/1

Prices seem so shyte this year Cider I don't know why anyone bothers

GB there have been a few different comments by you and others along the same lines ie that the HS prices are shockingly low. I've just worked out the overround on what looks like being the final 16 ( I have given shortish odds for the still to be manufactured groups).

Overround on best odds on oddschecker I make at under 90%. I know there is a chance that you can back a non runner but even so surely there has to be value in there somewhere? I think I have found it but need to open a new account to get on plus free bet [;)]

If I was a bookie I'd love people attaching any meaning to the calculation of the overround on their particular choice of 16. For instance we learn today that all of the groups that had been touted as almost certainties have fallen at JH.

Quite a few reasons why I don't back AP on XF

Henry has no.1
No.2 is a can't get on
No.3 is the %

Ultimately No.1 and No.3 are the same GB1. So that's just 2 reasons [;)]

Can't argue against GB2 that there may be value somewhere if you pick the right contestant. But the odds are stacked against you until BF opens their market.

Was it jr who had fantastic success last year picking out Cardie and bex at 12s?

Brilliant work, so it can be done. But you never quite know how they will translate to the big stage, and I doubt I could get much on anyway even if you found a gem

No real stand outs this year for me

I can see a low % GB if taking into account everyone in the betting but I'm gambling on X Factor Updates being as accurate as they were last year at this stage. Re the Groups Henry Updates only have 2 Shoes definitely through.

I've taken a chance on James Michael anyway (missed the 50s/60s unfortunately).  Only a minute on the audition and may not have the voice to kill the showstopper numbers but he has something and I understand he can play the guitar really well. Having three young scouse scallies in might be a worry.

Anyway free bet on a new account.

The guitar is a good spot if true

XF audiences are astonished by stuff like that

Updates say these and looks sensible to me:

boys
cocozza
colton
collins
michael

girls
bryan
devlin
lily

groups
2 shoes

overs
cheung
brucknall
robinson

Leaves quite a lot to the imagination

it was deejay who picked them at around 14/1

Definitely has something about him.

GB did you work out the odds for the 4 categories? The boys odds are 18/1, 18/1, 16/1, 12/1 and the girls likely to be 25/1 and then 3 under 10/1.  What would that make the odds for you? evens and 5/2?

I thought (and posted) Cardle was a near certainty after his bootcamp. After I was on oc. Only AP bet.
Last year I backed Lucie after audition and Joe Mc at BC.

This year it's just Marcus, altho far less confident about his votability. Thus only a small bet, @16's I think.

Not too many blanks to fill in GB.  jade or melanie (Melanie?), The Keys and 2 "supergroups" and another oldie tonight.

Was very tempted by Marcus myself but just have a feeling that he will start brightly but not stay the distance.  I can see James being loved by the mums and the teens.  I've probably been daft to take 18s before he is even confirmed but I can see him doing a really good bootcamp and JH. Fortune favours the brave!

Marcus has the ideal voice imo. All about the makeover/conditioning, and oc if he is wanted.

exactly, easy to spot the fodder once the lives have started.

and even then, they can occasionally throw in a blinding performance.

Unless something standout occurs in BC or JH, looks like my main betting will be on the lives this time. This auditioning in front of a stadium audience does proffer an advantage though as it's quite easy to tell who will be carp given anything else to sing.

Don't see the angle with Marcus at all to be honest. GL though.

This Amelia is interesting. I'm tempted to back her now to be honest.

Probably already said but looks a little like Christina

Just caught her judges house performance - absolutely brilliant. We're onto a winner here lads she a class apart.

Still really struggle to see her winning, can see her falling into a Lucie kinda trap. Brilliant, but just not a strong enough voting base.

Only women that have won are mature women who younger girls can look up to, and who happen to look like horses. Amelia doesn't tick any of these boxes.

Janet and Amelia both lays for me. They're screamingly similar to Diana and Lucie in terms of potential voting patterns imo

Amelia on a different planet to Lucie lol I take your point about the mum vote but all she'll need to do is some ballads and she'll be fine. She can do a perfectly plausible ballad. She'll be brilliant in the lives, A leona like precession is on the cards I feel.

But you need the voting teenies on board to win this show. Broad appeal is vital, and right now I can't see enough teeny girls being inspired by Amelia to pick up the phone in their droves, whereas Leona was a real role model for them.

I actually think Melanie if she's through has more of a chance to grow through the live shows as Leona did.

The teen**** has less chance than Jedward

howwer

ante-post pays :D

Certainly does on this. Her price is astonishing

pmbets
09 Oct 11 01:12
Joined:
24 May 06
| Topic/replies: 2,812 | Blogger: pmbets's blog
She can shout the high notes but it doesnt translate to anyone wanting to buy a song from her.
I think Johnny Robinson will finish ahead of her.
Of all the contestants Janet Devlin is in a totally different league.Janet can blo any of them away with any song and we will watch her grow
and improve week after week.
:(   sori brigga but I am a pro at this and people listen to me as I have a track record of success going back to day 1 of x factor.

lol least she went fave 4.3 powerless to a stitch up I'm afraid, this doesn't detract from her quality. Just sent Kelly some abuse on twitter, made me feel better.

Not sure about you being a pro pmbets but your comments re janet suggest you will soon be back in the amateur ranks

pm bets - do me a favour pal, people listen to you? only for comedic value...
you're a pro at this? see, very good for comedic value....

let's see how your janet gets on...she wont win

BUMP

oops